Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set

The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of 2 years (2008–2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC or rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to previous comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January–March underestimated by 59 and 37 % for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44 % for July–September), but with overestimates as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is 3 times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modeling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution.

Optimization in multi-implant placement for immediate loading in edentulous arches using a modified surgical template and prototyping: A case report

Immediate loading of dental implants shortens the treatment time and makes it possible to give the patient an esthetic appearance throughout the treatment period. Placement of dental implants requires precise planning that accounts for anatomic limitations and restorative goals. Diagnosis can be made with the assistance of computerized tomographic scanning, but transfer of planning to the surgical field is limited. Recently, novel CAD/CAM techniques such as stereolithographic rapid prototyping have been developed to build surgical guides in an attempt to improve precision of implant placement. The aim of this case report was to show a modified surgical template used throughout implant placement as an alternative to a conventional surgical guide.

Acute and chronic toxicity of sediment samples from Guanabara Bay (RJ) during the rainy period

A Baía de Guanabara é um ambiente marinho-estuarino de grande relevância ecológica e sócio-econômica, e sujeita a uma ampla gama de impactos ambientais. O sedimento é o principal destino para a maioria das substâncias introduzidas nos corpos d'água, podendo fornecer uma medida integrada da qualidade ambiental, a qual pode ser avaliada por várias abordagens. Neste projeto, a qualidade de sedimentos da Baía de Guanabara foi por uma abordagem ecotoxicológica, por meio de testes de toxicidade aguda de sedimento integral, utilizando Tiburonella viscana, e testes de toxicidade crônica de água intersticial, elutriato e interface sedimento-água, utilizando embriões de Lytechinus variegatus. Os sedimentos foram coletados em 14 estações de amostragem. Nos testes crônicos houve efeitos significativos na maioria das amostras, enquanto os sedimentos coletados nas estações 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12 e 15 apresentaram também toxicidade aguda. Houve grande concordância entre os resultados dos diferentes testes, e sua integração mostrou que os sedimentos analisados encontram-se inadequados à vida aquática, indicando degradação ambiental na baía da Guanabara. Nesse contexto, o controle das fontes poluidoras e o gerenciamento dos múltiplos usos da baía devem ser implementados, no sentido da melhora da qualidade ambiental.

Potential output in Latin America: a standard approach for the 1950-2002 period

Includes bibliography

A heuristic algorithm based on multi-assignment procedures for nurse scheduling

This paper tackles a Nurse Scheduling Problem which consists of generating work schedules for a set of nurses while considering their shift preferences and other requirements. The objective is to maximize the satisfaction of nurses' preferences and minimize the violation of soft constraints. This paper presents a new deterministic heuristic algorithm, called MAPA (multi-assignment problem-based algorithm), which is based on successive resolutions of the assignment problem. The algorithm has two phases: a constructive phase and an improvement phase. The constructive phase builds a full schedule by solving successive assignment problems, one for each day in the planning period. The improvement phase uses a couple of procedures that re-solve assignment problems to produce a better schedule. Given the deterministic nature of this algorithm, the same schedule is obtained each time that the algorithm is applied to the same problem instance. The performance of MAPA is benchmarked against published results for almost 250,000 instances from the NSPLib dataset. In most cases, particularly on large instances of the problem, the results produced by MAPA are better when compared to best-known solutions from the literature. The experiments reported here also show that the MAPA algorithm finds more feasible solutions compared with other algorithms in the literature, which suggest that this proposed approach is effective and robust. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Estudo multi-temporal do uso, ocupação e perda de solos em projetos de assentamentos em Rondônia

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Nonlinear dynamical analysis of an aeroelastic system with multi-segmented moment in the pitch degree-of-freedom

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The benefits of soft sensor and multi-rate control for the implementation of wireless networked control systems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Groupme: city data and multi-preference activity allocation

Classic group recommender systems focus on providing suggestions for a fixed group of people. Our work tries to give an inside look at design- ing a new recommender system that is capable of making suggestions for a sequence of activities, dividing people in subgroups, in order to boost over- all group satisfaction. However, this idea increases problem complexity in more dimensions and creates great challenge to the algorithm’s performance. To understand the e↵ectiveness, due to the enhanced complexity and pre- cise problem solving, we implemented an experimental system from data collected from a variety of web services concerning the city of Paris. The sys- tem recommends activities to a group of users from two di↵erent approaches: Local Search and Constraint Programming. The general results show that the number of subgroups can significantly influence the Constraint Program- ming Approaches’s computational time and e�cacy. Generally, Local Search can find results much quicker than Constraint Programming. Over a lengthy period of time, Local Search performs better than Constraint Programming, with similar final results.

A multi-proxy approach for revealing recent climatic changes in the Russian Altai

For the first time we present a multi-proxy data set for the Russian Altai, consisting of Siberian larch tree-ring width (TRW), latewood density (MXD), δ13C and δ18O in cellulose chronologies obtained for the period 1779–2007 and cell wall thickness (CWT) for 1900–2008. All of these parameters agree well between each other in the high-frequency variability, while the low-frequency climate information shows systematic differences. The correlation analysis with temperature and precipitation data from the closest weather station and gridded data revealed that annual TRW, MXD, CWT, and δ13C data contain a strong summer temperature signal, while δ18O in cellulose represents a mixed summer and winter temperature and precipitation signal. The temperature and precipitation reconstructions from the Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments were used to investigate the correspondence of different independent proxies. Low frequency patterns in TRW and δ13C chronologies are consistent with temperature reconstructions from nearby Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments showing a pronounced warming trend in the last century. Their combination could be used for the regional temperature reconstruction. The long-term δ18O trend agrees with the precipitation reconstruction from the Teletskoe lake sediment indicating more humid conditions during the twentieth century. Therefore, these two proxies could be combined for the precipitation reconstruction.

The arterial switch operation in Europe for transposition of the great arteries: a multi-institutional study from the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association

OBJECTIVES: This study analyzes the results of the arterial switch operation for transposition of the great arteries in member institutions of the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association. METHODS: The records of 613 patients who underwent primary arterial switch operations in each of 19 participating institutions in the period from January 1998 through December 2000 were reviewed retrospectively. RESULTS: A ventricular septal defect was present in 186 (30%) patients. Coronary anatomy was type A in 69% of the patients, and aortic arch pathology was present in 20% of patients with ventricular septal defect. Rashkind septostomy was performed in 75% of the patients, and 69% received prostaglandin. There were 37 hospital deaths (operative mortality, 6%), 13 (3%) for patients with an intact ventricular septum and 24 (13%) for those with a ventricular septal defect (P < .001). In 36% delayed sternal closure was performed, 8% required peritoneal dialysis, and 2% required mechanical circulatory support. Median ventilation time was 58 hours, and intensive care and hospital stay were 6 and 14 days, respectively. Although of various preoperative risk factors the presence of a ventricular septal defect, arch pathology, and coronary anomalies were univariate predictors of operative mortality, only the presence of a ventricular septal defect approached statistical significance (P = .06) on multivariable analysis. Of various operative parameters, aortic crossclamp time and delayed sternal closure were also univariate predictors; however, only the latter was an independent statistically significant predictor of death. CONCLUSIONS: Results of the procedure in European centers are compatible with those in the literature. The presence of a ventricular septal defect is the clinically most important preoperative risk factor for operative death, approaching statistical significance on multivariable analysis.

Is the relation between early post-session reports and treatment outcome an epiphenomenon of intake distress and early response? A multi-predictor analysis in outpatient psychotherapy

The early phase of psychotherapy has been regarded as a sensitive period in the unfolding of psychotherapy leading to positive outcomes. However, there is disagreement about the degree to which early (especially relationship-related) session experiences predict outcome over and above initial levels of distress and early response to treatment. The goal of the present study was to simultaneously examine outcome at post treatment as a function of (a) intake symptom and interpersonal distress as well as early change in well-being and symptoms, (b) the patient's early session-experiences, (c) the therapist's early session-experiences/interventions, and (d) their interactions. The data of 430 psychotherapy completers treated by 151 therapists were analyzed using hierarchical linear models. Results indicate that early positive intra- and interpersonal session experiences as reported by patients and therapists after the sessions explained 58% of variance of a composite outcome measure, taking intake distress and early response into account. All predictors (other than problem-activating therapists' interventions) contributed to later treatment outcomes if entered as single predictors. However, the multi-predictor analyses indicated that interpersonal distress at intake as well as the early interpersonal session experiences by patients and therapists remained robust predictors of outcome. The findings underscore that early in therapy therapists (and their supervisors) need to understand and monitor multiple interconnected components simultaneously

Multi-Decadal Record of Ice Dynamics on Daugaard Jensen Gletscher, East Greenland, from Satellite Imagery and Terrestrial Measurements

The history of ice velocity and calving front position of Daugaard Jensen Gletscher, a large outlet glacier in East Greenland, is reconstructed from field measurements, aerial photography and satellite imagery for the period 1950-2001. The calving terminus of the glacier has remained in approximately the same position over the past similar to 50 years. There is no evidence of a change in ice motion between 1968 and 2001, based on a comparison of velocities derived from terrestrial surveying and feature tracking using sequential satellite images. Estimates of flux near the entrance to the fjord vs snow accumulation in the interior catchment show that Daugaard Jensen Gletscher has a small negative mass balance. This result is consistent with other mass-balance estimates for the inland region of the glacier.

Search for long-lived, multi-charged particles in pp collisions at sqrts=7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

A search for highly ionising, penetrating particles with electric charges from |q| = 2e to 6e is performed using the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Proton-proton collision data taken at sqrt(s)=7 TeV during the 2011 running period, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.4 fb^-1, are analysed. No signal candidates are observed, and 95% confidence level cross-section upper limits are interpreted as mass-exclusion lower limits for a simplified Drell--Yan production model. In this model, masses are excluded from 50 GeV up to 430, 480, 490, 470 and 420 GeV for charges 2e, 3e, 4e, 5e and 6e, respectively.

Stratification of high-risk prostate cancer into prognostic categories: a European multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND High-risk prostate cancer (PCa) is an extremely heterogeneous disease. A clear definition of prognostic subgroups is mandatory. OBJECTIVE To develop a pretreatment prognostic model for PCa-specific survival (PCSS) in high-risk PCa based on combinations of unfavorable risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study including 1360 consecutive patients with high-risk PCa treated at eight European high-volume centers. INTERVENTION Retropubic radical prostatectomy with pelvic lymphadenectomy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Two Cox multivariable regression models were constructed to predict PCSS as a function of dichotomization of clinical stage (< cT3 vs cT3-4), Gleason score (GS) (2-7 vs 8-10), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA; ≤ 20 ng/ml vs > 20 ng/ml). The first "extended" model includes all seven possible combinations; the second "simplified" model includes three subgroups: a good prognosis subgroup (one single high-risk factor); an intermediate prognosis subgroup (PSA >20 ng/ml and stage cT3-4); and a poor prognosis subgroup (GS 8-10 in combination with at least one other high-risk factor). The predictive accuracy of the models was summarized and compared. Survival estimates and clinical and pathologic outcomes were compared between the three subgroups. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS The simplified model yielded an R(2) of 33% with a 5-yr area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 with no significant loss of predictive accuracy compared with the extended model (R(2): 34%; AUC: 0.71). The 5- and 10-yr PCSS rates were 98.7% and 95.4%, 96.5% and 88.3%, 88.8% and 79.7%, for the good, intermediate, and poor prognosis subgroups, respectively (p = 0.0003). Overall survival, clinical progression-free survival, and histopathologic outcomes significantly worsened in a stepwise fashion from the good to the poor prognosis subgroups. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. CONCLUSIONS This study presents an intuitive and easy-to-use stratification of high-risk PCa into three prognostic subgroups. The model is useful for counseling and decision making in the pretreatment setting.