Factor Five : Transforming the Global Economy through 80% Improvements in Resource Productivity

The 21st century will see monumental change. Either the human race will use its knowledge and skills and change the way it interacts with the environment, or the environment will change the way it interacts with its inhabitants. In the first case, the focus of this book, we would see our sophisticated understanding in areas such as physics, chemistry, engineering, biology, planning, commerce, business and governance accumulated over the last 1,000 years brought to bear on the challenge of dramatically reducing our pressure on the environment. The second case however is the opposite scenario, involving the decline of the planet’s ecosystems until they reach thresholds where recovery is not possible, and following which we have no idea what happens. For instance, if we fail to respond to Sir Nicolas Stern’s call to meet appropriate stabilisation trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions, and we allow the average temperature of our planets surface to increase by 4-6 degrees Celsius, we will see staggering changes to our environment, including rapidly rising sea level, withering crops, diminishing water reserves, drought, cyclones, floods… allowing this to happen will be the failure of our species, and those that survive will have a deadly legacy. In this update to the 1997 International Best Seller, Factor Four, Ernst von Weizsäcker again leads a team to present a compelling case for sector wide advances that can deliver significant resource productivity improvements over the coming century. The purpose of this book is to inspire hope and to then inform meaningful action in the coming decades to respond to the greatest challenge our species has ever faced – that of living in harmony with our planet and its other inhabitants.

Systems modelling of mine water and energy tradeoffs

In the coming decades, the mining industry faces the dual challenge of lowering both its water and energy use. This presents a difficulty since technological advances that decrease the use of one can increase the use of the other. Historically, energy and water use have been modelled independently, making it difficult to evaluate the true costs and benefits from water and energy improvements. This paper presents a hierarchical systems model that is able to represent interconnected water and energy use at a whole of site scale. In order to explore the links between water and energy four technologies advancements have been modelled: use of dust suppression additives, the adoption of thickened tailings, the transition to dry processing and the incorporation of a treatment plant. The results show a synergy between decreased water and energy use for dust suppression additives, but a trade-off for the others.

Assessing uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling via model validation

Stormwater pollution is linked to stream ecosystem degradation. In predicting stormwater pollution, various types of modelling techniques are adopted. The accuracy of predictions provided by these models depends on the data quality, appropriate estimation of model parameters, and the validation undertaken. It is well understood that available water quality datasets in urban areas span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data, which limits the applicability of the developed models in engineering and ecological assessment of urban waterways. This paper presents the application of leave-one-out (LOO) and Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) procedures in a Monte Carlo framework for the validation and estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off when models are developed using a limited dataset. It was found that the application of MCCV is likely to result in a more realistic measure of model coefficients than LOO. Most importantly, MCCV and LOO were found to be effective in model validation when dealing with a small sample size which hinders detailed model validation and can undermine the effectiveness of stormwater quality management strategies.

Innovate triple constraints model for better construction projects results

The continuous changing impacts appeared in all solution understanding approaches in the projects management field (especially in the construction field of work) by adopting dynamic solution paths. The paper will define what argue to be a better relational model for project management constraints (time, cost, and scope). This new model will increase the success factors of any complex program / project. This is a qualitative research adopting a new avenue of investigation by following different approach of attributing project activities with social phenomena, and supporting phenomenon with field of observations rather than mathematical method by emerging solution from human, and ants' colonies successful practices. The results will show the correct approach of relation between the triple constraints considering the relation as multi agents system having specified communication channels based on agents locations. Information will be transferred between agents, and action would be taken based on constraint agents locations in the project structure allowing immediate changes abilities in order to overcome issues of over budget, behind schedule, and additional scope impact. This is complex adaptive system having self organizes technique, and cybernetic control. Resulted model can be used for improving existing project management methodologies.

Transition of turbulent pipe flow

The velocity profile in turbulent pipe flow is usually divided into two regions, a wall or inner region and a core or outer region. For the inner region, the viscosity and wall shear stress are the important parameters governing the velocity distribution whereas for the outer region, the wall reduces the velocity below the maximum velocity independent of viscosity. In the present work, a velocity model is proposed for turbulent flow in the wall region of a pipe covering the entire transition from smooth to rough flows. Coupling this model for the wall region with the power law velocity model for the core region, an equation for the friction factor is obtained. The model constants are evaluated by using Nikuradse's experiments in the fully smooth and rough turbulent flows. The model shows good agreement with the friction factor and the velocity profiles obtained by Nikuradse for the transition region of turbulent flow.

Water balance modelling in a tropical watershed under deciduous forest (Mule Hole, India): Regolith matric storage buffers the groundwater recharge process

Accurate estimations of water balance are needed in semi-arid and sub-humid tropical regions, where water resources are scarce compared to water demand. Evapotranspiration plays a major role in this context, and the difficulty to quantify it precisely leads to major uncertainties in the groundwater recharge assessment, especially in forested catchments. In this paper, we propose to assess the importance of deep unsaturated regolith and water uptake by deep tree roots on the groundwater recharge process by using a lumped conceptual model (COMFORT). The model is calibrated using a 5 year hydrological monitoring of an experimental watershed under dry deciduous forest in South India (Mule Hole watershed). The model was able to simulate the stream discharge as well as the contrasted behaviour of groundwater table along the hillslope. Water balance simulated for a 32 year climatic time series displayed a large year-to-year variability, with alternance of dry and wet phases with a time period of approximately 14 years. On an average, input by the rainfall was 1090 mm year(-1) and the evapotranspiration was about 900 mm year(-1) out of which 100 mm year(-1) was uptake from the deep saprolite horizons. The stream flow was 100 mm year(-1) while the groundwater underflow was 80 mm year(-1). The simulation results suggest that (i) deciduous trees can uptake a significant amount of water from the deep regolith, (ii) this uptake, combined with the spatial variability of regolith depth, can account for the variable lag time between drainage events and groundwater rise observed for the different piezometers and (iii) water table response to recharge is buffered due to the long vertical travel time through the deep vadose zone, which constitutes a major water reservoir. This study stresses the importance of long term observations for the understanding of hydrological processes in tropical forested ecosystems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geometrically simple linear weirs using circular quadrants

A detailed theoretical analysis of flow through a quadrant plate weir is made in the light of the generalized theory of proportional weirs, using a numerical optimization procedure. It is shown that the flow through the quadrant plate weir has a linear discharge-head relationship valid for certain ranges of head. It is shown that the weir is associated with a reference plane or datum from which all heads are reckoned.Further, it is shown that the measuring range of the quadrant plate weir can be considerably enhanced by extending the tangents to the quadrants at the terminals of the quadrant plate weir. The importance of this weir (when the datum of the weir lies below its crest) as an outlet weir for grit chambers is highlighted. Experiments show excellent agreement with the theory by giving a constant average coefficient of discharge.

A numerical study of division of flow in open channels

A two-dimensional numerical model which employs the depth-averaged forms of continuity and momentum equations along with k-e turbulence closure scheme is used to simulate the flow at the open channel divisions. The model is generalised to flows of arbitrary geometries and MacCormack finite volume method is used for solving governing equations. Application of cartesian version of the model to analyse the flow at right-angled junction is presented. The numerical predictions are compared with experimental data of earlier investigators and measurements made as part of the present study. Performance of the model in predicting discharge distribution, surface profiles, separation zone parameters and energy losses is evaluated and discussed in detail. To illustrate the application of the numerical model to analyse the flow in acute angled offtakes and streamlined branch entries, a few computational results are presented.

On the dual head-discharge characteristics of a modified chimney weir

This paper is concerned with the dual head-discharge characteristics of a modified chimney weir. It is shown by an optimization procedure that the modified chimney weir having an inward trapezoidal weir over an inverted V-notch can produce discharges proportional to both the logarithm of the head as well as the linear power of the head reckoned independently over two different reference planes, within a prefixed maximum allowable percentage error from the theoretical discharge. A new technique is adopted to optimize the weir parameters, in order to obtain the maximum ranges of measurement under logarithmic, linear as well as combined characteristics. In the case of linear weir it is shown that it is possible to enhance the linearity range of the chimney weir by more than 540% and for a weir with constant indication accuracy by more than 350%. In addition, about 86% of the overall depth of the designed linear weir and over 90% of the logarithmic weir is converted as the corresponding measurable ranges. Experiments with four typical weirs give consistent constant average coefficient of discharge for each weir confirming the theory. The practical application of the weir in minor irrigation, hydraulic and other engineering fields is highlighted.

Case Study: Influence Of Morphological Changes On Flooding In Jingjiang River

The middle reach of the Yangtze River, customarily called the Jingjiang River, together with its diversion channels and Dongting Lake, form a large complicated drainage system. In the last five decades, significant geomorphological changes have occurred in the drainage system, including the shrinkage of diversion channels, contraction of Dongting Lake, changes in the rating curve at the Luoshan station, and cutoffs of the lower Jingjiang River. These changes are believed to be the cause of the occurrence of abnormal floods in the Jingjiang River. Qualitative analyses suggest that the first three factors aggravate the flood situation in the lower Jingjiang River, while the last factor seems beneficial for flood prevention. To quantitatively evaluate these conclusions, a finite-volume numerical model was constructed. A series of numerical simulations were carried out to test the individual and combined effects of the aforementioned four factors, and these simulations showed that high flood stages in the Jingjiang River clearly are related to the geomorphological changes.

Potentials for fisheries in the Niger Delta: Another green light for self sufficiency in regional food production

A discussion is presented on the potential for fishery development in the Niger Delta region, considering engineering activities and food production potentials of the freshwater zone and immediate hinterland, the brackishwater mangrove swamps and the estuaries. An examination of current trends in the environment indicates that a possible solution to improved exploitation of the region lies in hydraulic engineering, the manipulation of environmental conditions through varying freshwater and seawater inputs so as to increase aquatic and wetland productivity