Estimating outcomes in newborn infants using fuzzy logic

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The water effect on allosteric regulation of hemoglobin probed in water glucose and water glycine solutions

We have previously proposed a role of hydration in the allosteric control of hemoglobin based on the effect of varying concentrations of polyols and polyethers on the human hemoglobin oxygen affinity and on the solution water activity (Colombo, M. F., Rau, D. C., and Parsegian, V. A. (1992) Science 256, 655-659). Here, the original analyses are extended to test the possibility of concomitant solute and water allosteric binding and by introducing the bulk dielectric constant as a variable in our experiments. We present data which indicate that glycine and glucose influence HbA oxygen affinity to the same extent, despite the fact that glycine increases and glucose decreases the bulk dielectric constant of the solution. Furthermore, we derive an equation linking changes in oxygen affinity to changes in differential solute and water binding to test critically the possibility of neutral solute heterotropic binding. Applied to the data, these analyses support our original interpretation that neutral solutes act indirectly on the regulation of allosteric behavior of hemoglobin by varying the chemical potential of water in solution. This leads to a displacement of the equilibrium between Hb conformational states in proportion to their differential hydration.

Eating behavior and nutritional status in patients who underwent coronary angioplasty

Introduction: The identification of stages of dietary change and the factors affecting food choices can direct more effective nutritional intervention against coronary heart disease progression. Objective: Identify the stages of change of eating behavior and its relation with nutritional status, food consumption and previous cardiovascular events in patients who underwent coronary angioplasty. Methods: A cross-sectional study with 200 hospitalized patients from a specialized cardiology hospital, after elective coronary angioplasty. They were applied an algorithm that identifies the provision of change of eating habits for a healthier pattern. Variables measured were stages of change of eating behavior, nutritional status, food consumption and cardiovascular events (previous myocardial infarction or angioplasty). It was realized comparison of averages by analysis of variance or Student's test and Chi-square test for qualitative variables. Value of significance was taken at 5%. Results: The patients were classified in the following stages: 36% maintenance, 26% preparation, 17% precontemplation, 12% action and 9% contemplation. It was observed higher cardiovascular events in maintenance/action group (p = 0.04), higher consumption of calories (p = 0.04), meat/eggs (p = 0.01) and sweets (p = 0.03) in preparation stage, comparing to maintenance group, and no association between nutritional status and stages of change (p = 0.13), although 62% of the individuals in maintenance stage were overweight. Conclusions: This work contributed to identifying the stages of change and conditions that favor changes in eating pattern. Even patients that classified themselves into the maintenance stage need to adjust their eating habits in order to reach a healthy weight.

Messungen von salpetriger Säure und Eispartikeln im Nachlauf von Flugzeugen

Ziel dieser Arbeit war der Aufbau und Einsatz des Atmosphärischen chemischen Ionisations-Massenspektrometers AIMS für boden- und flugzeuggetragene Messungen von salpetriger Säure (HONO). Für das Massenspektrometer wurden eine mit Gleichspannung betriebene Gasentladungsionenquelle und ein spezielles Druckregelventil entwickelt. Während der Instrumentenvergleichskampagne FIONA (Formal Intercomparisons of Observations of Nitrous Acid) an einer Atmosphären-Simulationskammer in Valencia (Spanien) wurde AIMS für HONO kalibriert und erstmals eingesetzt. In verschiedenen Experimenten wurden HONO-Mischungsverhältnisse zwischen 100 pmol/mol und 25 nmol/mol erzeugt und mit AIMS interferenzfrei gemessen. Innerhalb der Messunsicherheit von ±20% stimmen die massenspektrometrischen Messungen gut mit den Methoden der Differenziellen Optischen Absorptions-Spektrometrie und der Long Path Absorption Photometrie überein. Die Massenspektrometrie kann somit zum schnellen und sensitiven Nachweis von HONO in verschmutzter Stadtluft und in Abgasfahnen genutzt werden.rnErste flugzeuggetragene Messungen von HONO mit AIMS wurden 2011 bei der Messkampagne CONCERT (Contrail and Cirrus Experiment) auf dem DLR Forschungsflugzeug Falcon durchgeführt. Hierbei konnte eine Nachweisgrenze von < 10 pmol/mol (3σ, 1s) erreicht werden. Bei Verfolgungsflügen wurden im jungen Abgasstrahl von Passagierflugzeugen molare HONO zu Stickoxid-Verhältnisse (HONO/NO) von 2.0 bis 2.5% gemessen. HONO wird im Triebwerk durch die Reaktion von NO mit OH gebildet. Ein gemessener abnehmender Trend der HONO/NO Verhältnisse mit zunehmendem Stickoxid-Emissionsindex wurde bestätigt und weist auf eine OH Limitierung im jungen Abgasstrahl hin.rnNeben den massenspektrometrischen Messungen wurden Flugzeugmessungen der Partikelsonde Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe FSSP-300 in jungen Kondensstreifen ausgewertet und analysiert. Aus den gemessenen Partikelgrößenverteilungen wurden Extinktions- und optische Tiefe-Verteilungen abgeleitet und für die Untersuchung verschiedener wissenschaftlicher Fragestellungen, z.B. bezüglich der Partikelform in jungen Kondensstreifen und ihrer Klimawirkung, zur Verfügung gestellt. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde der Einfluss des Flugzeug- und Triebwerktyps auf mikrophysikalische und optische Eigenschaften von Kondensstreifen untersucht. Unter ähnlichen meteorologischen Bedingungen bezüglich Feuchte, Temperatur und stabiler thermischer Schichtung wurden 2 Minuten alte Kondensstreifen der Passagierflugzeuge vom Typ A319-111, A340-311 und A380-841 verglichen. Im Rahmen der Messunsicherheit wurde keine Änderung des Effektivdurchmessers der Partikelgrößenverteilungen gefunden. Hingegen nehmen mit zunehmendem Flugzeuggewicht die Partikelanzahldichte (162 bis 235 cm-3), die Extinktion (2.1 bis 3.2 km-1), die Absinktiefe des Kondensstreifens (120 bis 290 m) und somit die optische Tiefe der Kondensstreifen (0.25 bis 0.94) zu. Der gemessene Trend wurde durch Vergleich mit zwei unabhängigen Kondensstreifen-Modellen bestätigt. Mit den Messungen wurde eine lineare Abhängigkeit der totalen Extinktion (Extinktion mal Querschnittsfläche des Kondensstreifens) vom Treibstoffverbrauch pro Flugstrecke gefunden und bestätigt.

Neural Networks as Cybernetic Systems - Part I

Neural Networks as Cybernetic Systems is a textbox that combines classical systems theory with artificial neural network technology.

Neural Networks as Cybernetic Systems - Part II

Neural Networks as Cybernetic Systems is a textbox that combines classical systems theory with artificial neural network technology.

Neural Networks as Cybernetic Systems (3rd and revised edition) - Part I

Neural Networks as Cybernetic Systems is a textbox that combines classical systems theory with artificial neural network technology. This third edition essentially compares with the 2nd one, but has been improved by correction of errors and by a rearrangement and minor expansion of the sections referring to recurrent networks. These changes hopefully allow for an easier comprehension of the essential aspects of this important domain that has received growing attention during the last years.

Neural Networks as Cybernetic Systems (3rd and revised edition) - Part 2

eural Networks as Cybernetic Systems is a textbox that combines classical systems theory with artificial neural network technology. This third edition essentially compares with the 2nd one, but has been improved by correction of errors and by a rearrangement and minor expansion of the sections referring to recurrent networks. These changes hopefully allow for an easier comprehension of the essential aspects of this important domain that has received growing attention during the last years.

Bifurcation and singularity analysis of a molecular network for the induction of long-term memory.

Withdrawal reflexes of the mollusk Aplysia exhibit sensitization, a simple form of long-term memory (LTM). Sensitization is due, in part, to long-term facilitation (LTF) of sensorimotor neuron synapses. LTF is induced by the modulatory actions of serotonin (5-HT). Pettigrew et al. developed a computational model of the nonlinear intracellular signaling and gene network that underlies the induction of 5-HT-induced LTF. The model simulated empirical observations that repeated applications of 5-HT induce persistent activation of protein kinase A (PKA) and that this persistent activation requires a suprathreshold exposure of 5-HT. This study extends the analysis of the Pettigrew model by applying bifurcation analysis, singularity theory, and numerical simulation. Using singularity theory, classification diagrams of parameter space were constructed, identifying regions with qualitatively different steady-state behaviors. The graphical representation of these regions illustrates the robustness of these regions to changes in model parameters. Because persistent protein kinase A (PKA) activity correlates with Aplysia LTM, the analysis focuses on a positive feedback loop in the model that tends to maintain PKA activity. In this loop, PKA phosphorylates a transcription factor (TF-1), thereby increasing the expression of an ubiquitin hydrolase (Ap-Uch). Ap-Uch then acts to increase PKA activity, closing the loop. This positive feedback loop manifests multiple, coexisting steady states, or multiplicity, which provides a mechanism for a bistable switch in PKA activity. After the removal of 5-HT, the PKA activity either returns to its basal level (reversible switch) or remains at a high level (irreversible switch). Such an irreversible switch might be a mechanism that contributes to the persistence of LTM. The classification diagrams also identify parameters and processes that might be manipulated, perhaps pharmacologically, to enhance the induction of memory. Rational drug design, to affect complex processes such as memory formation, can benefit from this type of analysis.

Simulation of Drosophila circadian oscillations, mutations, and light responses by a model with VRI, PDP-1, and CLK.

A model of Drosophila circadian rhythm generation was developed to represent feedback loops based on transcriptional regulation of per, Clk (dclock), Pdp-1, and vri (vrille). The model postulates that histone acetylation kinetics make transcriptional activation a nonlinear function of [CLK]. Such a nonlinearity is essential to simulate robust circadian oscillations of transcription in our model and in previous models. Simulations suggest that two positive feedback loops involving Clk are not essential for oscillations, because oscillations of [PER] were preserved when Clk, vri, or Pdp-1 expression was fixed. However, eliminating positive feedback by fixing vri expression altered the oscillation period. Eliminating the negative feedback loop in which PER represses per expression abolished oscillations. Simulations of per or Clk null mutations, of per overexpression, and of vri, Clk, or Pdp-1 heterozygous null mutations altered model behavior in ways similar to experimental data. The model simulated a photic phase-response curve resembling experimental curves, and oscillations entrained to simulated light-dark cycles. Temperature compensation of oscillation period could be simulated if temperature elevation slowed PER nuclear entry or PER phosphorylation. The model makes experimental predictions, some of which could be tested in transgenic Drosophila.

Relationship between threshold and suprathreshold perception of position and stereoscopic depth.

We seek to determine the relationship between threshold and suprathreshold perception for position offset and stereoscopic depth perception under conditions that elevate their respective thresholds. Two threshold-elevating conditions were used: (1) increasing the interline gap and (2) dioptric blur. Although increasing the interline gap increases position (Vernier) offset and stereoscopic disparity thresholds substantially, the perception of suprathreshold position offset and stereoscopic depth remains unchanged. Perception of suprathreshold position offset also remains unchanged when the Vernier threshold is elevated by dioptric blur. We show that such normalization of suprathreshold position offset can be attributed to the topographical-map-based encoding of position. On the other hand, dioptric blur increases the stereoscopic disparity thresholds and reduces the perceived suprathreshold stereoscopic depth, which can be accounted for by a disparity-computation model in which the activities of absolute disparity encoders are multiplied by a Gaussian weighting function that is centered on the horopter. Overall, the statement "equal suprathreshold perception occurs in threshold-elevated and unelevated conditions when the stimuli are equally above their corresponding thresholds" describes the results better than the statement "suprathreshold stimuli are perceived as equal when they are equal multiples of their respective threshold values."

Structural plasticity can produce metaplasticity.

BACKGROUND: Synaptic plasticity underlies many aspect of learning memory and development. The properties of synaptic plasticity can change as a function of previous plasticity and previous activation of synapses, a phenomenon called metaplasticity. Synaptic plasticity not only changes the functional connectivity between neurons but in some cases produces a structural change in synaptic spines; a change thought to form a basis for this observed plasticity. Here we examine to what extent structural plasticity of spines can be a cause for metaplasticity. This study is motivated by the observation that structural changes in spines are likely to affect the calcium dynamics in spines. Since calcium dynamics determine the sign and magnitude of synaptic plasticity, it is likely that structural plasticity will alter the properties of synaptic plasticity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study we address the question how spine geometry and alterations of N-methyl-D-aspartic acid (NMDA) receptors conductance may affect plasticity. Based on a simplified model of the spine in combination with a calcium-dependent plasticity rule, we demonstrated that after the induction phase of plasticity a shift of the long term potentiation (LTP) or long term depression (LTD) threshold takes place. This induces a refractory period for further LTP induction and promotes depotentiation as observed experimentally. That resembles the BCM metaplasticity rule but specific for the individual synapse. In the second phase, alteration of the NMDA response may bring the synapse to a state such that further synaptic weight alterations are feasible. We show that if the enhancement of the NMDA response is proportional to the area of the post synaptic density (PSD) the plasticity curves most likely return to the initial state. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using simulations of calcium dynamics in synaptic spines, coupled with a biophysically motivated calcium-dependent plasticity rule, we find under what conditions structural plasticity can form the basis of synapse specific metaplasticity.

Desenvolvimento de um modelo baseado em agentes para investigar a conformação e evolução de padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer em adultos

Introdução: Grande parte das ações para promover a atividade física no lazer em populações tem apresentado tamanhos de efeito pequenos ou inexistentes, ou resultados inconsistentes. Abordar o problema a partir da perspectiva sistêmica pode ser uma das formas de superar esse descompasso. Objetivo: Desenvolver um modelo baseado em agentes para investigar a conformação e evolução de padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer em adultos a partir da interação entre atributos psicológicos dos indivíduos e atributos dos ambientes físico construído e social em que vivem. Métodos: O processo de modelagem foi composto por três etapas: elaboração de um mapa conceitual, com base em revisão da literatura e consulta com especialistas; criação e verificação do algoritmo do modelo; e parametrização e análise de consistência e sensibilidade. Os resultados da revisão da literatura foram consolidados e relatados de acordo com os domínios da busca (aspectos psicológicos, ambiente social e ambiente físico construído). Os resultados quantitativos da consulta com os especialistas foram descritos por meio de frequências e o conteúdo das respostas questões abertas foi analisado e compilado pelo autor desta tese. O algoritmo do modelo foi criado no software NetLogo, versão 5.2.1., seguindo-se um protocolo de verificação para garantir que o algoritmo fosse implementado acuradamente. Nas análises de consistência e sensibilidade, utilizaram-se o Teste A de Vargha-Delaney, coeficiente de correlação de postos parcial, boxplots e gráficos de linha e de dispersão. Resultados: Definiram-se como elementos do mapa conceitual a intenção da pessoa, o comportamento de pessoas próximas e da comunidade, e a percepção da qualidade, do acesso e das atividades disponíveis nos locais em que atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada. O modelo representa uma comunidade hipotética contendo dois tipos de agentes: pessoas e locais em que atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada. As pessoas interagem entre si e com o ambiente construído, gerando tendências temporais populacionais de prática de atividade física no lazer e de intenção. As análises de sensibilidade indicaram que as tendências temporais de atividade física no lazer e de intenção são altamente sensíveis à influência do comportamento atual da pessoa sobre a sua intenção futura, ao tamanho do raio de percepção da pessoa e à proporção de locais em que a atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada. Considerações finais: O mapa conceitual e o modelo baseado em agentes se mostraram adequados para investigar a conformação e evolução de padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer em adultos. A influência do comportamento da pessoa sobre a sua intenção, o tamanho do raio de percepção da pessoa e a proporção de locais em que a atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada são importantes determinantes da conformação e evolução dos padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer entre adultos no modelo.

Coreferentiality: A New Method for the Hypothesis-Based Analysis of Phenotypes Characterized by Multivariate Data

Many multifactorial biologic effects, particularly in the context of complex human diseases, are still poorly understood. At the same time, the systematic acquisition of multivariate data has become increasingly easy. The use of such data to analyze and model complex phenotypes, however, remains a challenge. Here, a new analytic approach is described, termed coreferentiality, together with an appropriate statistical test. Coreferentiality is the indirect relation of two variables of functional interest in respect to whether they parallel each other in their respective relatedness to multivariate reference data, which can be informative for a complex effect or phenotype. It is shown that the power of coreferentiality testing is comparable to multiple regression analysis, sufficient even when reference data are informative only to a relatively small extent of 2.5%, and clearly exceeding the power of simple bivariate correlation testing. Thus, coreferentiality testing uses the increased power of multivariate analysis, however, in order to address a more straightforward interpretable bivariate relatedness. Systematic application of this approach could substantially improve the analysis and modeling of complex phenotypes, particularly in the context of human study where addressing functional hypotheses by direct experimentation is often difficult.

Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: An indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall bias

The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.