Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution.

Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Urban sprawl analysis and modeling in Asmara, Eritreia: Application of Geospatial Tools

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Target-specific multiphysics modeling for thermal medicine applications

Dissertation to obtain the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Biomedical Engineering

Quality of process modeling using BPMN: a model-driven approach

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

Modeling and optimization of extracellular polysaccharides production by Enterobacter A47

Polysaccharides are gaining increasing attention as potential environmental friendly and sustainable building blocks in many fields of the (bio)chemical industry. The microbial production of polysaccharides is envisioned as a promising path, since higher biomass growth rates are possible and therefore higher productivities may be achieved compared to vegetable or animal polysaccharides sources. This Ph.D. thesis focuses on the modeling and optimization of a particular microbial polysaccharide, namely the production of extracellular polysaccharides (EPS) by the bacterial strain Enterobacter A47. Enterobacter A47 was found to be a metabolically versatile organism in terms of its adaptability to complex media, notably capable of achieving high growth rates in media containing glycerol byproduct from the biodiesel industry. However, the industrial implementation of this production process is still hampered due to a largely unoptimized process. Kinetic rates from the bioreactor operation are heavily dependent on operational parameters such as temperature, pH, stirring and aeration rate. The increase of culture broth viscosity is a common feature of this culture and has a major impact on the overall performance. This fact complicates the mathematical modeling of the process, limiting the possibility to understand, control and optimize productivity. In order to tackle this difficulty, data-driven mathematical methodologies such as Artificial Neural Networks can be employed to incorporate additional process data to complement the known mathematical description of the fermentation kinetics. In this Ph.D. thesis, we have adopted such an hybrid modeling framework that enabled the incorporation of temperature, pH and viscosity effects on the fermentation kinetics in order to improve the dynamical modeling and optimization of the process. A model-based optimization method was implemented that enabled to design bioreactor optimal control strategies in the sense of EPS productivity maximization. It is also critical to understand EPS synthesis at the level of the bacterial metabolism, since the production of EPS is a tightly regulated process. Methods of pathway analysis provide a means to unravel the fundamental pathways and their controls in bioprocesses. In the present Ph.D. thesis, a novel methodology called Principal Elementary Mode Analysis (PEMA) was developed and implemented that enabled to identify which cellular fluxes are activated under different conditions of temperature and pH. It is shown that differences in these two parameters affect the chemical composition of EPS, hence they are critical for the regulation of the product synthesis. In future studies, the knowledge provided by PEMA could foster the development of metabolically meaningful control strategies that target the EPS sugar content and oder product quality parameters.

Development of human central nervous system 3D in vitro models for preclinical research

Neurological disorders are a major concern in modern societies, with increasing prevalence mainly related with the higher life expectancy. Most of the current available therapeutic options can only control and ameliorate the patients’ symptoms, often be-coming refractory over time. Therapeutic breakthroughs and advances have been hampered by the lack of accurate central nervous system (CNS) models. The develop-ment of these models allows the study of the disease onset/progression mechanisms and the preclinical evaluation of novel therapeutics. This has traditionally relied on genetically engineered animal models that often diverge considerably from the human phenotype (developmentally, anatomically and physiologically) and 2D in vitro cell models, which fail to recapitulate the characteristics of the target tissue (cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions, cell polarity). The in vitro recapitulation of CNS phenotypic and functional features requires the implementation of advanced culture strategies that enable to mimic the in vivo struc-tural and molecular complexity. Models based on differentiation of human neural stem cells (hNSC) in 3D cultures have great potential as complementary tools in preclinical research, bridging the gap between human clinical studies and animal models. This thesis aimed at the development of novel human 3D in vitro CNS models by integrat-ing agitation-based culture systems and a wide array of characterization tools. Neural differentiation of hNSC as 3D neurospheres was explored in Chapter 2. Here, it was demonstrated that human midbrain-derived neural progenitor cells from fetal origin (hmNPC) can generate complex tissue-like structures containing functional dopaminergic neurons, as well as astrocytes and oligodendrocytes. Chapter 3 focused on the development of cellular characterization assays for cell aggregates based on light-sheet fluorescence imaging systems, which resulted in increased spatial resolu-tion both for fixed samples or live imaging. The applicability of the developed human 3D cell model for preclinical research was explored in Chapter 4, evaluating the poten-tial of a viral vector candidate for gene therapy. The efficacy and safety of helper-dependent CAV-2 (hd-CAV-2) for gene delivery in human neurons was evaluated, demonstrating increased neuronal tropism, efficient transgene expression and minimal toxicity. The potential of human 3D in vitro CNS models to mimic brain functions was further addressed in Chapter 5. Exploring the use of 13C-labeled substrates and Nucle-ar Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy tools, neural metabolic signatures were evaluated showing lineage-specific metabolic specialization and establishment of neu-ron-astrocytic shuttles upon differentiation. Chapter 6 focused on transferring the knowledge and strategies described in the previous chapters for the implementation of a scalable and robust process for the 3D differentiation of hNSC derived from human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSC). Here, software-controlled perfusion stirred-tank bioreactors were used as technological system to sustain cell aggregation and dif-ferentiation. The work developed in this thesis provides practical and versatile new in vitro ap-proaches to model the human brain. Furthermore, the culture strategies described herein can be further extended to other sources of neural phenotypes, including pa-tient-derived hiPSC. The combination of this 3D culture strategy with the implemented characterization methods represents a powerful complementary tool applicable in the drug discovery, toxicology and disease modeling.

The role of arl13b in cilia length regulation and in zebrafish development

RESUMO: Arl13b é uma importante proteína ciliar, presente em cílios primários e cílios móveis. Ratinhos mutantes para Arl13b têm comprimento dos cílios reduzido e defeitos nos B-túbulos dos cílios. Como consequência destes fenótipos, deficiências na Arl13b originam, em modelos animais, várias doenças congénitas, incluindo problemas no estabelecimento do eixo esquerda-direita, malformações cerebrais e deformações corporais. Nos seres humanos, deficiências na Arl13b levam a uma doença crónica congénita chamada Síndrome de Joubert. Por outro lado, a sobreexpressão de Arl13b origina cílios mais longos, no entanto existe uma ausência da caracterização dos fenótipos celulares e durante o desenvolvimento embrionário. Neste trabalho, quisemos explorar o efeito da sobre-expressão de Arl13b em embriões de peixezebra. Descobrimos que, ao nível ciliar, a sobre-expressão de Arl13b nas células aumenta o comprimento ciliar em cílios primários e móveis, no entanto, a esses cílios falta adequada acetilação da alfa-tubulina no citoesqueleto feito por microtúbulos. Os nossos resultados mostraram que esse efeito é específico de Arl13b sobre-expressão e quando se manipularam as enzimas responsáveis pela acetilação (Mec17) e pela de-acetilação (HDAC6) encontrámos uma sinergia potencial com ambas. Testámos ainda, que o aumento no comprimento ciliar não estava causalmente relacionado com a falta de acetilação, ou seja, os cílios com menos acetilação não eram necessariamente os mais longos. Também mostrámos que a sobre-expressão de Arl13b é capaz de restaurar o comprimento dos cílios em mutantes com cílios curtos e como isso pode ser explorado para um futuro potencial papel terapêutico para Arl13b. Em seguida, foi avaliado o impacto do aumento da quantidade de Arl13b no desenvolvimento embrionário do peixe-zebra. Observou-se que a sobre-expressão de Arl13b apresentava fenótipos muito fracos, quando comparados com a perda de função dos mutantes de Arl13b. Focados no inesperado fenótipo leve no estabelecimento do eixo esquerda-direita abordámos a questão através do estabelecimento de uma colaboração com matemáticos, descobrimos que os cílios mais longos que potencialmente têm a capacidade de movimentar mais fluido são atenuados por amplitudes de batimento menores, e, como resultado, estes longos cílios não prejudicam o movimento do fluido e consequentemente não afetam o estabelecimento dos padrões de esquerda-direita. Sugerimos assim que a Arl13b é um regulador chave, do comprimento ciliar. Descobrimos uma nova interação com as enzimas de acetilação/de-acetilação e levantamos novas hipóteses quanto aos mecanismos moleculares da função da Arl13b. Propomos um novo modelo para o mecanismo molecular da Arl13b na regulação do comprimento dos cílios onde podemos integrar os nossos resultados com os relatados na literatura. Este trabalho adiciona mais conhecimento para o mecanismo de ação da Arl13b e, portanto, fornece uma importante contribuição para o campo da investigação em cílios.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABSTRACT: Arl13b is an important ciliary protein, present in primary and motile cilia. arl13b-/- mouse mutants have reduced cilia length and cilia B-tubule defects. As a consequence of these phenotypes, Arl13b loss of function animal models suffer from several congenital disorders including left-right problems, brain malformations and body deformations. In humans Arl13b depletion leads to a congenital chronic disease called Joubert Syndrome. On the other hand, overexpressing Arl13b leads to longer cilia but the characterization of the cellular and developmental phenotypes was missing. In this work we explore the effect of Arl13b overexpression in zebrafish embryos. We found that, at the ciliary level, Arl13b overexpression from 1 cell stage produces longer primary and motile cilia, but these cilia lack proper alpha tubulin acetylation of their microtubule cytoskeleton. Our results showed that this effect is specific from Arl13b overexpression and when we manipulated the enzymes responsible for acetylation, Mec17, and de-acetylation, HDAC6, we found a potential synergy of both mec17 knockdown and HDAC6 activity with Arl13b overexpression. We tested that the ciliary increase in length was not causally related to the lack of acetylation, meaning the more de-acetylated cilia were not necessarily the longer ones. We also showed that Arl13b overexpression is able to restore cilia length in short cilia mutants and how that may be explored to a potential future therapeutic role for Arl13b. Next, we evaluated the impact of increasing the amount of Arl13b in zebrafish embryonic development. We observed that Arl13b overexpression presented very mild phenotypes when compared to the loss of function mutants. We focused on the unexpected left-right mild phenotype and by establishing a mathematical modeling collaboration, we found out that the longer cilia generated force was attenuated by smaller beating amplitudes, and as a result, these long cilia were not impairing the cilia generated flow and the establishment of left-right patterning. We suggest that Arl13b is one key cilia length regulator. We disclosed a novel interaction with the acetylation / de-acetylation enzymes and raised new hypothesis as to the mechanisms of Arl13b function. We propose a new model for the Arl13b molecular mechanism of cilia length regulation where we integrate our findings with those reported in the literature. This work adds more knowledge to the Arl13b mechanism of action and therefore provides an important contribution to the cilia research field.

Development of computational tools for the integrated analysis of DNA microarray data with applications in cancer research

The MAP-i Doctoral Program of the Universities of Minho, Aveiro and Porto

Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.

A integração de técnicas BIM (Building Information Modeling) no projeto e na construção de estruturas de madeira

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

A UML-based approach for modeling industrial control applications

The main purpose of the poster is to present how the Unified Modeling Language (UML) can be used for diagnosing and optimizing real industrial production systems. By using a car radios production line as a case study, the poster shows the modeling process that can be followed during the analysis phase of complex control applications. In order to guarantee the continuity mapping of the models, the authors propose some guidelines to transform the use cases diagrams into a single object diagram, which is the main diagram for the next phases of the development.

Modelado multi-dominio de máquinas eléctricas. Multi-domain modeling of electric machines

El objetivo general de este proyecto es desarrollar nuevos modelos multi-dominio de máquinas eléctricas para aplicaciones al control y al diagnóstico de fallas. Se propone comenzar con el modelo electromagnético del motor de inducción en base a circuitos magnéticos equivalentes (MEC) validándolo por medio de simulación y de resultados experimentales. Como segundo paso se pretende desarrollas modelos térmicos y mecánicos con el objetivo que puedan ser acoplados al modelo electromagnético y de esta estudiar la interacción de los dominios y se validará mediante resultados de simulación y experimentales el modelo completo. Finalmente se pretende utilizar el modelo multi-dominio como una herramienta para la prueba de nuevas estrategias de control y diagnóstico de fallas. The main objective of this project is the development of new multi-domain models of electric machines for control and fault diagnosis applications. The electromagnetic modeling of the induction motor (IM) will be done using the magnetic equivalent circuits approach. This model will be validated by simulation and by experimental results. As a second step of this project, new mechanical and thermal models for the IM will be developed, with the objective of coupling these models with the electromagnetic one. With this multi-domain model it will be possible to study the interaction between each others. After that, the complete model will be validated by simulation and experimental results. Finally, the model will be used as a tool for testing new control and fault diagnosis strategies.

Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE

PECUBE is a three-dimensional thermal-kinematic code capable of solving the heat production-diffusion-advection equation under a temporally varying surface boundary condition. It was initially developed to assess the effects of time-varying surface topography (relief) on low-temperature thermochronological datasets. Thermochronometric ages are predicted by tracking the time-temperature histories of rock-particles ending up at the surface and by combining these with various age-prediction models. In the decade since its inception, the PECUBE code has been under continuous development as its use became wider and addressed different tectonic-geomorphic problems. This paper describes several major recent improvements in the code, including its integration with an inverse-modeling package based on the Neighborhood Algorithm, the incorporation of fault-controlled kinematics, several different ways to address topographic and drainage change through time, the ability to predict subsurface (tunnel or borehole) data, prediction of detrital thermochronology data and a method to compare these with observations, and the coupling with landscape-evolution (or surface-process) models. Each new development is described together with one or several applications, so that the reader and potential user can clearly assess and make use of the capabilities of PECUBE. We end with describing some developments that are currently underway or should take place in the foreseeable future. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.