PICES Press, Vol. 17, No. 2, July 2009

Major Outcomes from the 2009 PICES Annual Meeting: A Note from the Chairman (pdf, 0.1 Mb) The FUTURE is Here (pdf, 0.1 Mb) PICES Harmful Algal Bloom International Seafood Safety Project (pdf, 0.3 Mb) PICES at the 2009 GLOBEC Open Science Meeting (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Modeling Ecosystems and Ocean Processes Workshop (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Krill Biology and Ecology Workshop (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Polar and Sub-Polar Marine Ecosystems Workshop (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Biogeochemistry of the Oceans in a Changing Climate Workshop (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Continuous Plankton Recorder Surveys of the Global Oceans (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Plankton Phenology Workshop (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Workshop on “Climate Impact on Ecosystem Dynamics of Marginal Seas” (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Erratum (pdf, 0.4 Mb) The State of the Western North Pacific in the Second Half of 2008 (pdf, 0.2 Mb) State of the Northeast Pacific into early 2009 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Current Status of the Bering Sea Ecosystem (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2009 Salmon Forecasting Forum (pdf, 0.3 Mb) The Third Argo Science Workshop: “The Future of Argo” (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2009 ESSAS Annual Science Meeting (pdf, 0.1 Mb) A Visit Fit for an Emperor and Empress of Japan (pdf, 0.9 Mb)

PICES Press, Vol. 18, No. 2, Summer 2010

•The 2010 Inter-sessional Science Board Meeting: A Note from the Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-3) •2010 Symposium on “Effects of Climate Change on Fish and Fisheries” (pp. 4-11) •2009 Mechanism of North Pacific Low Frequency Variability Workshop (pp. 12-14) •The Fourth China-Japan-Korea GLOBEC/IMBER Symposium (pp. 15-17, 23) •2010 Sendai Ocean Acidification Workshop (pp. 18-19, 31) •2010 Sendai Coupled Climate-to-Fish-to-Fishers Models Workshop (pp. 20-21) •2010 Sendai Salmon Workshop on Climate Change (pp. 22-23) •2010 Sendai Zooplankton Workshop (pp. 24-25, 28) •2010 Sendai Workshop on “Networking across Global Marine Hotspots” (pp. 26-28) •The Ocean, Salmon, Ecology and Forecasting in 2010 (pp. 29, 44) •The State of the Northeast Pacific during the Winter of 2009/2010 (pp. 30-31) •The State of the Western North Pacific in the Second Half of 2009 (pp. 32-33) •The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pp. 34-35, 39) •PICES Seafood Safety Project: Guatemala Training Program (pp. 36-39) •The Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystem and Climate Study (POBEX) (pp. 40-43) •PICES Calendar (p. 44)

PICES Press, Vol. 20, No. 2, Summer 2012

•The 2012 Inter-sessional Science Board Meeting: A Note from Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-4) ◾PICES Interns (p. 4) ◾2012 Inter-sessional Workshop on a Roadmap for FUTURE (pp. 5-8) ◾Second Symposium on “Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans” (pp. 9-13) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Framework for Ocean Observing” (pp. 14-15) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Climate Change Projections” (pp. 16-17) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Coastal Blue Carbon” (pp. 18-20) ◾Polar Comparisons: Summary of 2012 Yeosu Workshop (pp. 21-23) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Climate Change and Range Shifts in the Oceans" (pp. 24-27) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Beyond Dispersion” (pp. 28-30) ◾2012 Yeosu Workshop on “Public Perception of Climate Change” (pp. 31, 50) ◾PICES Working Group 20: Accomplishments and Legacy (pp. 32-33) ◾The State of the Western North Pacific in the Second Half of 2011 (pp. 34-35) ◾Another Cold Winter in the Gulf of Alaska (pp. 36-37) ◾The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pp. 38-40) ◾PICES/ICES 2012 Conference for Early Career Marine Scientists (pp. 41-43) ◾Completion of the PICES Seafood Safety Project – Indonesia (pp. 44-46) ◾Oceanography Improves Salmon Forecasts (p. 47) ◾2012 GEOHAB Open Science Meeting (p. 48-50) ◾Shin-ichi Ito awarded 2011 Uda Prize (p. 50)

项目管理系统的数据模型研究

项目数据来源多,管理复杂,数据模型的研究有助于简化项目管理系统的分析和设计。为了清晰表达项目数据模型,采用了本体论方法,提出了面向项目管理域的数据概念和关系的表达模式,并介绍了项目管理相关的主要概念;探讨了数据模型的共享域、专有域的划分以及信息的共享方式;分析了项目组织、任务组织、人员组织的数据模型框架,并阐述了主要的概念间关系;最后在数据模型的统一概念基础上,给出了数据模型的应用方式。

Reflexive learning in pre-service training of primary school teachers: from experience to assimilation of contents

This article presents an educational experiment carried out in the Primary School Teaching Degree at the University of Barcelona. Specifically, the article analyses the application of the “Work Corners” approach in a core subject. In a three-year action research process, trainers put into practice an innovation which enabled them to boost cooperative work and reflexive learning among trainees. Firstly, the theoretical model underpinning the project and guiding many of the actions carried out by the training team is presented. After providing detailed information on the practical development of the experiment, the data-gathering process and its results are shown. Various information-gathering strategies were used in assessing the project, such as a questionnaire, participant observation, and teachers’ diaries. The results demonstrate, amongst other things, that “work corners” offer viable and appropriate educational conditions for the articulation of theoretical and practical knowledge, for building professional knowledge, and therefore, the beginnings of a reflexive teaching practice.

Do spectral gamma ray data really reflect humid-arid palaeoclimates? A test from the Palaeogene Interbasaltic weathered horizons at the Giant’s Causeway, N.Ireland

Since 1999, the rapid, inexpensive and non-destructive use of Th/K and Th/U ratios from spectral gamma ray measurements have been used as a proxy for changes in palaeo-hinterland weathering. This model is tested here by analysis of in situ palaeoweathering horizons where clay mineral contents are well-known. A residual palaeoweathered horizon of Palaeogene laterite (developed on basalt) has been logged at 14 locations across N. Ireland using spectral gamma ray detectors. The results are compared to published elemental and mineralogical data. While the model of K and U loss during the early stages of weathering to smectite and kaolinite is supported, the formation (during progressively more advanced weathering) of gibbsite and iron oxides has reversed the predicted pattern and caused U and Th retention in the weathering profile. The severity (duration, humidity) of weathering and palaeoweathering may be estimated using Th/K ratios as a proxy. The use of Th/U ratios is more problematic should detrital gibbsite (or similar clays) or iron oxides be detected. Mineralogical analysis is needed in order to evaluate the hosts for K, U and Th: nonetheless, the spectral gamma ray machine offers a real-time, inexpensive and effective tool for the preliminary or conjunctive assessment of degrees of weathering or palaeoweathering.

Gestão de projectos de tradução e de localização - do conceito ao modelo

O crescimento do mercado electrónico e o aumento das comunicações além-fronteiras, resultante sobretudo da difusão da Internet, repercutiu-se, de modo intenso, na indústria de tradução, particularmente, na exigência crescente da tradução de websites, e, sobretudo, na localização de software. Para melhor perceber esta realidade e, de modo a contribuir para uma maior sistematização do conhecimento nesta área, o presente artigo inicia-se com uma breve análise sobre a evolução dos conceitos e dos mercados da tradução e da localização. Procura distinguir entre os diferentes prestadores de serviços de tradução, nomeadamente, empresas e agências e descreve o processo seguido na elaboração de projectos de localização, reconhecendo a tradução como elemento integrante do projecto de localização. Com base na interpretação dos conceitos de projecto e de gestão de projectos descreve-se o processo de gestão de projectos de tradução. Sendo o gestor de projectos o elemento essencial deste processo, analisam-se as funções e competências do mesmo e descrevem-se as tarefas e processos usados por este profissional, tendo em conta o ciclo de vida e os elementos que compõem o processo de gestão de projectos. A partir desta análise propõe-se um modelo de gestão de projectos de tradução/localização baseado na conjugação dos diferentes elementos afectos à gestão e ao gestor de projectos e que procura sintetizar todo o processo inerente à gestão de projectos de tradução/localização. O modelo resulta de dois pontos de vista que se interligam: o da análise e reflexão sobre o estado-da-arte e o da análise empírica dos dados recolhidos no dia-a-dia no universo de trabalho de uma empresa de tradução. Com este modelo, que retrata um processo cíclico e dinâmico, pretende-se, por um lado, ilustrar a complexidade do processo da gestão de projectos e demonstrar a importância das funções do gestor de projectos no vasto universo que é o da tradução e, por outro, desenvolver e propor um modelo de gestão de projectos aplicável a empresas de tradução e de localização.

L’archivage numérique des projets « Europan » comme situation d’analyse scientifique du concours d’idées en architecture

Il existe somme toute peu de théories du projet offrant une modélisation construite à partir de la complexité et de la diversité du projet d’architecture. Pourtant,certaines situations rassemblant parfois plusieurs dizaines de projets s’offrent d’elles-mêmes comme des situations comparatives et expérimentales : les concours d’architecture, d’urbanisme et de paysage. Le Laboratoire d’étude de l’architecture potentielle de l’Université de Montréal (Aménagement), après avoir développé un système d’archivage numérique des concours canadiens, a entrepris, avec le soutien du Groupement d’intérêt public « Europe des projets architecturaux et urbains », de développer la base de données documentaire des concours d’idées Europan. Au-delà des questions d’archivage numérique, se profilent clairement des possibilités de théorisation s’appuyant sur les logiques d’une base de données, en particulier sur la constitution du diagramme entités et relations, modélisation indispensable à sa traduction informatique. Cette recherche entreprend une première mise à jour de ces éléments conceptuels et tend à montrer que la base de données est un véritable modèle théorique du projet ouvrant sur de nouvelles avenues de recherche et de connaissance.

MODELING HETEROTACHY IN PHYLOGENETICS

Il a été démontré que l’hétérotachie, variation du taux de substitutions au cours du temps et entre les sites, est un phénomène fréquent au sein de données réelles. Échouer à modéliser l’hétérotachie peut potentiellement causer des artéfacts phylogénétiques. Actuellement, plusieurs modèles traitent l’hétérotachie : le modèle à mélange des longueurs de branche (MLB) ainsi que diverses formes du modèle covarion. Dans ce projet, notre but est de trouver un modèle qui prenne efficacement en compte les signaux hétérotaches présents dans les données, et ainsi améliorer l’inférence phylogénétique. Pour parvenir à nos fins, deux études ont été réalisées. Dans la première, nous comparons le modèle MLB avec le modèle covarion et le modèle homogène grâce aux test AIC et BIC, ainsi que par validation croisée. A partir de nos résultats, nous pouvons conclure que le modèle MLB n’est pas nécessaire pour les sites dont les longueurs de branche diffèrent sur l’ensemble de l’arbre, car, dans les données réelles, le signaux hétérotaches qui interfèrent avec l’inférence phylogénétique sont généralement concentrés dans une zone limitée de l’arbre. Dans la seconde étude, nous relaxons l’hypothèse que le modèle covarion est homogène entre les sites, et développons un modèle à mélanges basé sur un processus de Dirichlet. Afin d’évaluer différents modèles hétérogènes, nous définissons plusieurs tests de non-conformité par échantillonnage postérieur prédictif pour étudier divers aspects de l’évolution moléculaire à partir de cartographies stochastiques. Ces tests montrent que le modèle à mélanges covarion utilisé avec une loi gamma est capable de refléter adéquatement les variations de substitutions tant à l’intérieur d’un site qu’entre les sites. Notre recherche permet de décrire de façon détaillée l’hétérotachie dans des données réelles et donne des pistes à suivre pour de futurs modèles hétérotaches. Les tests de non conformité par échantillonnage postérieur prédictif fournissent des outils de diagnostic pour évaluer les modèles en détails. De plus, nos deux études révèlent la non spécificité des modèles hétérogènes et, en conséquence, la présence d’interactions entre différents modèles hétérogènes. Nos études suggèrent fortement que les données contiennent différents caractères hétérogènes qui devraient être pris en compte simultanément dans les analyses phylogénétiques.

Konzeption eines generischen Vorgehensmodells zur strategieorientierten und partizipativen Einführung komplexer Softwaresysteme unter Berücksichtigung organisatorischer Gestaltungsprozesse

Die Dissertation befasst sich mit der Einführung komplexer Softwaresysteme, die, bestehend aus einer Kombination aus parametrisierter Standardsoftware gepaart mit Wettbewerbsvorteil sichernden Individualsoftwarekomponenten, keine Software-Engineering-Projekte im klassischen Sinn mehr darstellen, sondern einer strategieorientierten Gestaltung von Geschäftsprozessen und deren Implementierung in Softwaresystemen bedürfen. Die Problemstellung einer adäquaten Abwägung zwischen TCO-optimierender Einführung und einer gleichzeitigen vollständigen Unterstützung der kritischen Erfolgsfaktoren des Unternehmens ist hierbei von besonderer Bedeutung. Der Einsatz integrierter betriebswirtschaftlicher Standardsoftware, mit den Möglichkeiten einer TCO-Senkung, jedoch ebenfalls der Gefahr eines Verlustes von Alleinstellungsmerkmalen am Markt durch Vereinheitlichungstendenzen, stellt ein in Einführungsprojekten wesentliches zu lösendes Problem dar, um Suboptima zu vermeiden. Die Verwendung von Vorgehensmodellen, die sich oftmals an klassischen Softwareentwicklungsprojekten orientieren oder vereinfachte Phasenmodelle für das Projektmanagement darstellen, bedingt eine fehlende Situationsadäquanz in den Detailsituationen der Teilprojekte eines komplexen Einführungsprojektes. Das in dieser Arbeit entwickelte generische Vorgehensmodell zur strategieorientierten und partizipativen Einführung komplexer Softwaresysteme im betriebswirtschaftlichen Anwendungsbereich macht - aufgrund der besonders herausgearbeiteten Ansätze zu einer strategieorientierten Einführung, respektive Entwicklung derartiger Systeme sowie aufgrund der situationsadäquaten Vorgehensstrategien im Rahmen der Teilprojektorganisation � ein Softwareeinführungsprojekt zu einem Wettbewerbsfaktor stärkenden, strategischen Element im Unternehmen. Die in der Dissertation diskutierten Überlegungen lassen eine Vorgehensweise präferieren, die eine enge Verschmelzung des Projektes zur Organisationsoptimierung mit dem Softwareimplementierungsprozess impliziert. Eine Priorisierung der Geschäftsprozesse mit dem Ziel, zum einen bei Prozessen mit hoher wettbewerbsseitiger Priorität ein organisatorisches Suboptimum zu vermeiden und zum anderen trotzdem den organisatorischen Gestaltungs- und den Systemimplementierungsprozess schnell und ressourcenschonend durchzuführen, ist ein wesentliches Ergebnis der Ausarbeitungen. Zusätzlich führt die Ausgrenzung weiterer Prozesse vom Einführungsvorgang zunächst zu einem Produktivsystem, welches das Unternehmen in den wesentlichen Punkten abdeckt, das aber ebenso in späteren Projektschritten zu einem System erweitert werden kann, welches eine umfassende Funktionalität besitzt. Hieraus ergeben sich Möglichkeiten, strategischen Anforderungen an ein modernes Informationssystem, das die kritischen Erfolgsfaktoren eines Unternehmens konsequent unterstützen muss, gerecht zu werden und gleichzeitig ein so weit als möglich ressourcenschonendes, weil die Kostenreduktionsaspekte einer Standardlösung nutzend, Projekt durchzuführen. Ein weiterer wesentlicher Aspekt ist die situationsadäquate Modellinstanziierung, also die projektspezifische Anpassung des Vorgehensmodells sowie die situationsadäquate Wahl der Vorgehensweisen in Teilprojekten und dadurch Nutzung der Vorteile der verschiedenen Vorgehensstrategien beim konkreten Projektmanagement. Der Notwendigkeit der Entwicklung einer Projektorganisation für prototypingorientiertes Vorgehen wird in diesem Zusammenhang ebenfalls Rechnung getragen. Die Notwendigkeit der Unternehmen, sich einerseits mit starken Differenzierungspotenzialen am Markt hervorzuheben und andererseits bei ständig sinkenden Margen einer Kostenoptimierung nachzukommen, lässt auch in Zukunft das entwickelte Modell als erfolgreich erscheinen. Hinzu kommt die Tendenz zu Best-Of-Breed-Ansätzen und komponentenbasierten Systemen im Rahmen der Softwareauswahl, die eine ausgesprochen differenzierte Vorgehensweise in Projekten verstärkt notwendig machen wird. Durch die in das entwickelte Modell integrierten Prototyping-Ansätze wird der auch in Zukunft an Bedeutung gewinnenden Notwendigkeit der Anwenderintegration Rechnung getragen.

Development of warm SST errors in the southern tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

SST errors in the tropical Atlantic are large and systematic in current coupled general-circulation models. We analyse the growth of these errors in the region of the south-eastern tropical Atlantic in initialised decadal hindcasts integrations for three of the models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5. A variety of causes for the initial bias development are identified, but a crucial involvement is found, in all cases considered, of ocean-atmosphere coupling for their maintenance. These involve an oceanic “bridge” between the Equator and the Benguela-Angola coastal seas which communicates sub-surface ocean anomalies and constitutes a coupling between SSTs in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic and the winds over the Equator. The resulting coupling between SSTs, winds and precipitation represents a positive feedback for warm SST errors in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic.

Focusing the kaleidoscope: investigating the newly formed role of 'Academic Lead’ at a research-led University

Now, more than ever, higher education institutions are reflecting on the need for flexible leadership models to help adapt to the fast changing academic environment. Rapid shifts in the sector are contributing to a kaleidoscopic ‘supercomplexity’ of challenges, structures, processes and value frameworks for academics who lead and for those who are led. How are institutions’ leadership structures and roles developing in response to these changes? And how do these responses affect academic staff in relation to their identity, status and career trajectory? This paper reports on a Leadership Foundation funded research project exploring the ways in which one UK institution has implemented a new ‘distributed’ leadership model. Crucially, the project examines the impact of the model on both those who are leaders and those being led.

Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.

Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections

A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO2 step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO2 step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO2 constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 1024 J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 1024 J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs.

Phase diagram and spectral properties of a new exactly integrable spin-1 quantum chain

The spectral properties and phase diagram of the exactly integrable spin-1 quantum chain introduced by Alcaraz and Bariev are presented. The model has a U(1) symmetry and its integrability is associated with an unknown R-matrix whose dependence on the spectral parameters is not of a different form. The associated Bethe ansatz equations that fix the eigenspectra are distinct from those associated with other known integrable spin models. The model has a free parameter t(p). We show that at the special point t(p) = 1, the model acquires an extra U(1) symmetry and reduces to the deformed SU(3) Perk-Schultz model at a special value of its anisotropy q = exp(i2 pi/3) and in the presence of an external magnetic field. Our analysis is carried out either by solving the associated Bethe ansatz equations or by direct diagonalization of the quantum Hamiltonian for small lattice sizes. The phase diagram is calculated by exploring the consequences of conformal invariance on the finite-size corrections of the Hamiltonian eigenspectrum. The model exhibits a critical phase ruled by the c = 1 conformal field theory separated from a massive phase by first-order phase transitions.