Chronic NSAID use and long-term decline of renal function in a prospective rheumatoid arthritis cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may cause kidney damage. This study assessed the impact of prolonged NSAID exposure on renal function in a large rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patient cohort. METHODS: Renal function was prospectively followed between 1996 and 2007 in 4101 RA patients with multilevel mixed models for longitudinal data over a mean period of 3.2 years. Among the 2739 'NSAID users' were 1290 patients treated with cyclooxygenase type 2 selective NSAIDs, while 1362 subjects were 'NSAID naive'. Primary outcome was the estimated glomerular filtration rate according to the Cockroft-Gault formula (eGFRCG), and secondary the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula equations and serum creatinine concentrations. In sensitivity analyses, NSAID dosing effects were compared for patients with NSAID registration in ≤/>50%, ≤/>80% or ≤/>90% of assessments. FINDINGS: In patients with baseline eGFRCG >30 mL/min, eGFRCG evolved without significant differences over time between 'NSAID users' (mean change in eGFRCG -0.87 mL/min/year, 95% CI -1.15 to -0.59) and 'NSAID naive' (-0.67 mL/min/year, 95% CI -1.26 to -0.09, p=0.63). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusted for significant confounders age, sex, body mass index, arterial hypertension, heart disease and for other insignificant factors, NSAIDs were an independent predictor for accelerated renal function decline only in patients with advanced baseline renal impairment (eGFRCG <30 mL/min). Analyses with secondary outcomes and sensitivity analyses confirmed these results. CONCLUSIONS: NSAIDs had no negative impact on renal function estimates but in patients with advanced renal impairment.

Natural vitamin C intake and the risk of head and neck cancer : a pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium

Evidence of associations between single nutrients and head and neck cancer (HNC) is still more limited and less consistent than that for fruit and vegetables. However, clarification of the protective mechanisms of fruit and vegetables is important to our understanding of HNC etiology. We investigated the association between vitamin C intake from natural sources and cancer of the oral cavity/pharynx and larynx using individual-level pooled data from ten case-control studies (5,959 cases and 12,248 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. After harmonization of study-specific exposure information via the residual method, adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional multiple logistic regression models on quintile categories of 'non-alcohol energy-adjusted' vitamin C intake. In the presence of heterogeneity of the estimated ORs among studies, we derived those estimates from generalized linear mixed models. Higher intakes of vitamin C were inversely related to oral and pharyngeal (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.45-0.65, for the fifth quintile category versus the first one, p for trend<0.001) and laryngeal cancers (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.40-0.68, p for trend = 0.006), although in the presence of heterogeneity among studies for both sites. Inverse associations were consistently observed for the anatomical subsites of oral and pharyngeal cancer, and across strata of age, sex, education, body mass index, tobacco, and alcohol, for both cancer sites. The inverse association of vitamin C intake from foods with HNC may reflect a protective effect on these cancers; however, we cannot rule out other explanations.

1C.06: Ambulatory pulse pressure is negatively associated with excretions of urinary caffeine and its metabolites

OBJECTIVE: Systolic blood pressure (BP) has been associated with urinary caffeine and its metabolites such as paraxanthine and theophylline. Caffeine and caffeine metabolites could influence arterial pulse pressure (PP) via sympathomimetic effects, smooth muscle relaxation, and phosphodiesterase inhibition. The purpose of this analysis was to explore the association of ambulatory PP with urinary caffeine and its related metabolites in a large population-based sample. DESIGN AND METHOD: Families were randomly selected from the general population of three Swiss cities (2009-2013). Ambulatory BP monitoring was conducted using validated Diasys Integra devices. PP was defined as the difference between the systolic and diastolic ambulatory BP. Urinary caffeine, paraxanthine, theophylline, and theobromine excretions were measured in 24 h urine using ultra-high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Urinary excretions were log-transformed to satisfy regression assumptions. We used linear mixed models to explore the associations of urinary caffeine and caffeine metabolite excretions with 24-hour, day- and night-time PP while adjusting for major confounders. RESULTS: The 836 participants (48.9% men) included in this analysis had mean (±SD) age of 47.8 (±17.5), and mean 24-hour systolic and diastolic BP of 120.1 mmHg (±13.9) and 78.0 (±8.6). Except theobromine, log transformed urinary caffeine and caffeine metabolite excretions were associated negatively with 24-hour, daytime and night-time ambulatory PP. 24-hour, daytime, and night-time ambulatory PP decreased by -0.804 mmHg (SE, 0.209), -0.749 (0.215), and -0.968 (0.243) (all P values <0.005), for each doubling excretion of caffeine. Strong negative associations with night-time ambulatory PP were observed for paraxanthine and theophylline.(Figure is included in full-text article.) CONCLUSIONS: : The negative associations of PP with caffeine, paraxanthine, and theophylline excretions suggest that caffeine and its metabolites do lower BP, possibly by modifying arterial stiffness.

Efficacy of brief interdisciplinary psychotherapeutic intervention for motor conversion disorder and nonepileptic attacks.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to compare a brief interdisciplinary psychotherapeutic intervention to standard care as treatments for patients recently diagnosed with severe motor conversion disorder or nonepileptic attacks. METHODS: This randomized controlled trial of 23 consecutive patients compared (a) an interdisciplinary psychotherapeutic intervention group receiving four to six sessions by a consultation liaison psychiatrist, the first and last sessions adding a neurological consultation and a joint psychiatric and neurological consultation, and (b) a standard care group. After intervention, patients were assessed at 2, 6 and 12 months with the Somatoform Dissociation Questionnaire (SDQ-20), Clinical Global Impression scale, Rankin scale, use of medical care, global mental health [Montgomery and Asberg Depression Rating Scale, Beck Depression Inventory, mental health component of Short Form (SF)-36] and quality of life (SF-36). We calculated linear mixed models. RESULTS: Our intervention brought a statistically significant improvement of physical symptoms [as measured by the SDQ-20 (P<.02) and the Clinical Global Impression scale (P=.02)] and psychological symptoms [better scores on the mental health component of the SF-36 (P<.05) and on the Beck Depression Inventory (P<.05)] and a reduction in new hospital stays after intervention (P<.05). CONCLUSION: A brief psychotherapeutic intervention taking advantage of a close collaboration with neurology consultants in the setting of consultation liaison psychiatry appears effective.

Determinants of antithrombotic choice for patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the influence of clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic characteristics on antithrombotic choice in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO), hypothesizing that features suggestive of paradoxical embolism might lead to greater use of anticoagulation. METHODS: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism Study combined 12 databases to create the largest dataset of patients with CS and known PFO status. We used generalized linear mixed models with a random effect of component study to explore whether anticoagulation was preferentially selected based on the following: (1) younger age and absence of vascular risk factors, (2) "high-risk" echocardiographic features, and (3) neuroradiologic findings. RESULTS: A total of 1,132 patients with CS and PFO treated with anticoagulation or antiplatelets were included. Overall, 438 participants (39%) were treated with anticoagulation with a range (by database) of 22% to 54%. Treatment choice was not influenced by age or vascular risk factors. However, neuroradiologic findings (superficial or multiple infarcts) and high-risk echocardiographic features (large shunts, shunt at rest, and septal hypermobility) were predictors of anticoagulation use. CONCLUSION: Both antithrombotic regimens are widely used for secondary stroke prevention in patients with CS and PFO. Radiologic and echocardiographic features were strongly associated with treatment choice, whereas conventional vascular risk factors were not. Prior observational studies are likely to be biased by confounding by indication.

Defining the Effect of the 16p11.2 Duplication on Cognition, Behavior, and Medical Comorbidities.

IMPORTANCE: The 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 duplication is the copy number variant most frequently associated with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), schizophrenia, and comorbidities such as decreased body mass index (BMI). OBJECTIVES: To characterize the effects of the 16p11.2 duplication on cognitive, behavioral, medical, and anthropometric traits and to understand the specificity of these effects by systematically comparing results in duplication carriers and reciprocal deletion carriers, who are also at risk for ASD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This international cohort study of 1006 study participants compared 270 duplication carriers with their 102 intrafamilial control individuals, 390 reciprocal deletion carriers, and 244 deletion controls from European and North American cohorts. Data were collected from August 1, 2010, to May 31, 2015 and analyzed from January 1 to August 14, 2015. Linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of the duplication and deletion on clinical traits by comparison with noncarrier relatives. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Findings on the Full-Scale IQ (FSIQ), Nonverbal IQ, and Verbal IQ; the presence of ASD or other DSM-IV diagnoses; BMI; head circumference; and medical data. RESULTS: Among the 1006 study participants, the duplication was associated with a mean FSIQ score that was lower by 26.3 points between proband carriers and noncarrier relatives and a lower mean FSIQ score (16.2-11.4 points) in nonproband carriers. The mean overall effect of the deletion was similar (-22.1 points; P < .001). However, broad variation in FSIQ was found, with a 19.4- and 2.0-fold increase in the proportion of FSIQ scores that were very low (≤40) and higher than the mean (>100) compared with the deletion group (P < .001). Parental FSIQ predicted part of this variation (approximately 36.0% in hereditary probands). Although the frequency of ASD was similar in deletion and duplication proband carriers (16.0% and 20.0%, respectively), the FSIQ was significantly lower (by 26.3 points) in the duplication probands with ASD. There also were lower head circumference and BMI measurements among duplication carriers, which is consistent with the findings of previous studies. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The mean effect of the duplication on cognition is similar to that of the reciprocal deletion, but the variance in the duplication is significantly higher, with severe and mild subgroups not observed with the deletion. These results suggest that additional genetic and familial factors contribute to this variability. Additional studies will be necessary to characterize the predictors of cognitive deficits.

Different Plasma Markers of Inflammation Are Influenced by Immune Recovery and cART Composition or Intensification in Treated HIV Infected Individuals

Abstract Background HIV-1 infection increases plasma levels of inflammatory markers. Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) does not restore inflammatory markers to normal levels. Since intensification of cART with raltegravir reduced CD8 T-cell activation in the Discor-Ral and IntegRal studies, we have evaluated the effect of raltegravir intensification on several soluble inflammation markers in these studies. Methods Longitudinal plasma samples (0–48 weeks) from the IntegRal (n = 67, 22 control and 45 intensified individuals) and the Discor-Ral studies (44 individuals with CD4 T-cell counts<350 cells/µl, 14 control and 30 intensified) were assayed for 25 markers. Mann-Whitney, Wilcoxon, Spearman test and linear mixed models were used for analysis. Results At baseline, different inflammatory markers were strongly associated with HCV co-infection, lower CD4 counts and with cART regimens (being higher in PI-treated individuals), but poorly correlated with detection of markers of residual viral replication. Although raltegravir intensification reduced inflammation in individuals with lower CD4 T-cell counts, no effect of intensification was observed on plasma markers of inflammation in a global analysis. An association was found, however, between reductions in immune activation and plasma levels of the coagulation marker D-dimer, which exclusively decreased in intensified patients on protease inhibitor (PI)-based cART regimens (P = 0.040). Conclusions The inflammatory profile in treated HIV-infected individuals showed a complex association with HCV co-infection, the levels of CD4 T cells and the cART regimen. Raltegravir intensification specifically reduced D-dimer levels in PI-treated patients, highlighting the link between cART composition and residual viral replication; however, raltegravir had little effect on other inflammatory markers.

Modélisation bayésienne des changements aux niches écologiques causés par le réchauffement climatique

Cette thèse présente des méthodes de traitement de données de comptage en particulier et des données discrètes en général. Il s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un projet stratégique du CRNSG, nommé CC-Bio, dont l'objectif est d'évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la répartition des espèces animales et végétales. Après une brève introduction aux notions de biogéographie et aux modèles linéaires mixtes généralisés aux chapitres 1 et 2 respectivement, ma thèse s'articulera autour de trois idées majeures. Premièrement, nous introduisons au chapitre 3 une nouvelle forme de distribution dont les composantes ont pour distributions marginales des lois de Poisson ou des lois de Skellam. Cette nouvelle spécification permet d'incorporer de l'information pertinente sur la nature des corrélations entre toutes les composantes. De plus, nous présentons certaines propriétés de ladite distribution. Contrairement à la distribution multidimensionnelle de Poisson qu'elle généralise, celle-ci permet de traiter les variables avec des corrélations positives et/ou négatives. Une simulation permet d'illustrer les méthodes d'estimation dans le cas bidimensionnel. Les résultats obtenus par les méthodes bayésiennes par les chaînes de Markov par Monte Carlo (CMMC) indiquent un biais relatif assez faible de moins de 5% pour les coefficients de régression des moyennes contrairement à ceux du terme de covariance qui semblent un peu plus volatils. Deuxièmement, le chapitre 4 présente une extension de la régression multidimensionnelle de Poisson avec des effets aléatoires ayant une densité gamma. En effet, conscients du fait que les données d'abondance des espèces présentent une forte dispersion, ce qui rendrait fallacieux les estimateurs et écarts types obtenus, nous privilégions une approche basée sur l'intégration par Monte Carlo grâce à l'échantillonnage préférentiel. L'approche demeure la même qu'au chapitre précédent, c'est-à-dire que l'idée est de simuler des variables latentes indépendantes et de se retrouver dans le cadre d'un modèle linéaire mixte généralisé (GLMM) conventionnel avec des effets aléatoires de densité gamma. Même si l'hypothèse d'une connaissance a priori des paramètres de dispersion semble trop forte, une analyse de sensibilité basée sur la qualité de l'ajustement permet de démontrer la robustesse de notre méthode. Troisièmement, dans le dernier chapitre, nous nous intéressons à la définition et à la construction d'une mesure de concordance donc de corrélation pour les données augmentées en zéro par la modélisation de copules gaussiennes. Contrairement au tau de Kendall dont les valeurs se situent dans un intervalle dont les bornes varient selon la fréquence d'observations d'égalité entre les paires, cette mesure a pour avantage de prendre ses valeurs sur (-1;1). Initialement introduite pour modéliser les corrélations entre des variables continues, son extension au cas discret implique certaines restrictions. En effet, la nouvelle mesure pourrait être interprétée comme la corrélation entre les variables aléatoires continues dont la discrétisation constitue nos observations discrètes non négatives. Deux méthodes d'estimation des modèles augmentés en zéro seront présentées dans les contextes fréquentiste et bayésien basées respectivement sur le maximum de vraisemblance et l'intégration de Gauss-Hermite. Enfin, une étude de simulation permet de montrer la robustesse et les limites de notre approche.

La survie implantaire suite à une réhabilitation par mise en charge immédiate d’une prothèse totale mandibulaire reliée à deux implants non jumelés : une étude pilote expérimentale

Problématique : Les connaissances théoriques et pratiques au sujet de la mise en charge immédiate d’implants non jumelés chez les édentés sont limitées. Objectifs : Cette étude avait pour but de : (1) déterminer le taux de survie implantaire de 2 implants non jumelés supportant une prothèse totale mandibulaire suite à une mise en charge immédiate, (2) évaluer les changements des niveaux osseux et de stabilité implantaire survenus sur ces 2 implants durant une période de 4 mois et les comparer à un implant témoin, et (3) décrire les complications cliniques associées à ce mode de mise en charge. Méthodologie : Chez 18 individus édentés (âge moyen de 62±7 ans), cette étude de phase I avec un design pré/post a évalué les résultats cliniques suivant la mise en charge immédiate (<48 heures) de 2 implants non jumelés par une prothèse totale mandibulaire. À l’aide de radiographies périapicales, de sondages osseux et d’analyses de la fréquence en résonnance, les niveaux osseux péri-implantaires (en mm) et les niveaux de stabilité implantairte (en ISQ) de ces 2 implants insérés dans la région parasymphysaire ont été évalués à la chirurgie (T0) et au suivi de 4 mois (T1). Un implant non submergé et sans mise en charge inséré dans la région de la symphyse mandibulaire a été utilisé comme témoin. Les données ont été analysées avec des modèles mixtes linéaires, la méthode de Tukey ajustée, l’analyse de variance de Friedman et des tests de rang signés de Wilcoxon. Résultats : De T0 à T1, 3 implants mis en charge immédiatement ont échoué chez 2 patients. Le taux de survie implantaire obtenu était donc de 91,7% (33/36) et, par patient, de 88,9% (16/18). Aucun implant témoin n’a échoué. Les changements osseux documentés radiologiquement et par sondage autour des implants mis en charge immédiatement étaient, respectivement, de -0,2 ± 0,3 mm et de -0,5 ± 0,6 mm. Les pertes d’os de support implantaire n’ont pas été démontrées statistiquement différentes entre les implants avec mise en charge immédiate et les témoins. Les niveaux moyens de stabilité implantaire ont augmenté de 5 ISQ indépendamment de la mise en charge. Les niveaux moyens d’ISQ n’ont pas été démontrés statistiquement différents entre les implants avec mise en charge immédiate et les témoins à T0 ou T1. Cinq des 18 patients n’ont expérimenté aucune complication clinique, alors que 9 en ont eu au moins deux. Hormis les échecs implantaires, aucune de ces complications n’a entraîné de changements au protocole. Conclusion : Les résultats à court terme suggèrent que : (1) le taux de survie implantaire suite au protocole immédiat est similaire à ceux rapportés lors d’un protocole de mise en charge conventionnel (2) les changements d’os de support implantaire et de stabilité ne sont pas différents comparativement à ceux d’un implant témoin, (3) un niveau élevé d’expérience clinique et chirurgicale est requis pour effectuer les procédures et pour gérer les complications associées. Ces résultats préliminaires devraient être confirmés dans une étude clinique de phase II.

Organic potatoes for processing

Drei Feldversuche auf zwei Standorten (DFH: 51°4, 9°4’, BEL: 52°2’, 8°08’) wurden in den Jahren 2002 bis 2004 durchgeführt, um den Einfluss der Vorfrucht, des Vorkeimens, der N- und K-Düngung und der Sorte auf Nährstoffverfügbarkeit, Gesamt- und sortierte Knollenerträge sowie die Qualität von Kartoffeln und deren Eignung für die industrielle Verarbeitung zu Pommes frites und Chips zu untersuchen. Bestimmt wurden die N- und K-Verfügbarkeit im Boden, die N- und K-Aufnahme von Kraut und Knollen, gesamte Frisch- und Trockenmasseerträge, sortierte Frischmasseerträge für die Verarbeitung, sowie die Gehalte der Knollen an Trockensubstanz und reduzierenden Zuckern. In einer sensorischen Prüfung wurden Qualitätsparameter von Pommes frites (Aussehen/Farbe, Textur und Geschmack/Geruch) bewertet, die gewichtet in einen Qualitätsindex eingingen. Die Qualität der Chips wurde maschinell durch den L-Wert (Helligkeit) des Produktes quantifiziert. Der Gehalt des Bodens an mineralisiertem Nitrat-Stickstoff hing von der Vorfrucht und dem Jahr ab. Nach Erbsen wurden zum Auflaufen der Kartoffeln in den Versuchsjahren 2003 und 2004 (187 und 132 kg NO3-N ha-1) die höchsten NO3-N-Werte in 0-60 cm Boden gemessen verglichen mit Kleegras (169 bzw. 108 kg NO3-N ha-1 oder Getreide (112 kg bzw. 97 kg NO3-N ha-1), obgleich die Differenz nicht in allen Fällen signifikant war. Entsprechend wurden nach Erbsen die höchsten Knollen-Frischmasseerträge (414 und 308 dt ha-1) geerntet. Dasselbe galt für die Trockenmasserträge, was belegt, dass der Trockensubstanzgehalt der Knollen bei verbesserter N-Versorgung nicht im selben Maße sinkt, wie der Frischmasseertrag steigt. Das Vorkeimen der Pflanzknollen führte zu einer rascheren phänologischen Entwicklung im Jugendstadium der Pflanze, beschleunigter Trockenmassebildung des Krautes und einer früheren Einlagerung von Assimilaten vom Kraut in die Knollen. Obwohl die positive Wirkung des Vorkeimens auf den Gesamtertrag bis Ende Juli (+ 26 in 2003 bzw. 34 dt ha-1 in 2004) im Jahr ohne Krautfäuleepidemie von den nicht vorgekeimten Varianten bis zur Endernte im September kompensiert wurde, konnte in diesem Jahr durch Vorkeimen dennoch ein erhöhter Ertragsanteil (+ 12%) der besonders nachgefragten Übergrößen (>50 mm für Pommes frites) erzielt werden. Die durchschnittliche Knollenmasse reagierte positiv auf Vorkeimen (+ 5,4 g), Sortenwahl (Sorte Agria) und ein erhöhtes N-Angebot (Leguminosenvorfrucht). Generell wurde deutlich, dass die Knollengesamterträge unter den Bedingungen des Ökologischen Landbaus (geringe bis mittlere Nährstoffversorgung, verkürzte Vegetationsdauer) sehr stark vom Anbaujahr abhängen. Die Ergebnisse belegen jedoch, dass organisch-mineralische N-K-Düngung den sortierten Ertrag an Knollen für die Verarbeitung signifikant erhöht: Höchste Gesamt- und sortierte Knollenfrischmasseerträge wurden nach kombinierter N (Horngrieß) und mineralischer K- (Kaliumsulfat) Gabe erzielt (348 dt ha-1 im Durchschnitt von 2002-2004). Im Gegensatz dazu kann eine Wirkung von Stallmist auf den Ertrag im Jahr der Ausbringung nicht unbedingt erwartet werden. Steigende Erträge nach Stallmistdüngung wurden lediglich in einem von drei Versuchsjahren (+58 dt ha-1) festgestellt und ließen sich eher auf eine K- als eine N-Wirkung zurückführen. Die Ergebnisse belegen, dass die Sortenwahl eine entscheidende Rolle spielt, wenn die Kartoffeln für die industrielle Verarbeitung zu den oben genannten Produkten angebaut werden. Insgesamt kann festgestellt werden, dass Kartoffelknollen aus ökologischen Anbauverfahren ausreichend hohe Trockensubstanzgehalte aufweisen, um für die Verarbeitung zu Pommes frites (>19%) geeignet zu sein und ohne dass dadurch die Konsistenz des Endproduktes gefährdet würde. Der Trockensubstanzgehalt der Referenzsorte für Chips, „Marlen“, unterschritt das in der Literatur geforderte Minimum für Chips von 23% lediglich, wenn die kombinierte Horngrieß-Kaliumsulfatdüngung zur Anwendung kam. Die Trockensubstanzgehalte der Knollen konnten durch Vorkeimen signifikant gesteigert werden und der Effekt war besonders groß (+1.2% absolut) in dem Jahr mit frühem Auftreten der Krautfäule (Phytophthora infestans), d.h. verkürzter Vegetationszeit. Die Knollen-Trockensubstanzgehalte waren in zwei von drei Experimenten nach Lagerung höher (+0.4 und 0.5% absolut) als noch zur Ernte. Sorten der sehr frühen und frühen Reifegruppe wiesen den größten relativen Anstieg der Gehalte an reduzierenden Zuckern (Glukose und Fruktose) während der Lagerung auf. Den mittelfrühen Sorten „Agria“ und „Marena“ hingegen kann aufgrund des von ihnen erreichten höchsten Qualitätsstandards (Pommes frites) zur Ernte eine sehr gute Eignung für die Bedingungen des Ökologischen Landbaus unterstellt werden. Die durchgehend beste Chipseignung wies die mittelfrühe Referenzsorte „Marlen“ auf. Insgesamt konnte nachgewiesen werden, dass durch gezielte Sortenwahl der Trockensubstanzgehalt und die Konzentration reduzierender Zucker, sowie die Qualität der Endprodukte (Pommes frites und Chips) gezielt beeinflusst werden kann. Im Gegensatz dazu haben acker- und pflanzenbauliche Maßnahmen wie Düngung, Wahl der Vorfrucht und Vorkeimen der Pflanzknollen einen eher geringen Einfluss. Dementsprechend sollte der Landwirt versuchen, durch die Wahl der Sorte den hohen Anforderungen der Industrie an die Rohware gerecht zu werden.

Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies: a case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities

The objective of this paper is to introduce a diVerent approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches. Design—The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-termeVects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona,Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992–1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were nonlinear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models. Main results—The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 μg/m3 and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 μg/m3 of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant,especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables. Conclusions—Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities

The effects of different knowledge-dissemination interventions on the mastitis knowledge of Tanzanian smallholder dairy farmers

We developed three different knowledge-dissemination methods for educating Tanzanian smallholder farmers about mastitis in their dairy cattle. The effectiveness of these methods (and their combinations) was evaluated and quantified using a randomised controlled trial and multilevel statistical modelling. To our knowledge, this is the first study that has used such techniques to evaluate the effectiveness of different knowledge-dissemination interventions for adult learning in developing countries. Five different combinations of knowledge-dissemination method were compared: 'diagrammatic handout' ('HO'), 'village meeting' ('VM'), 'village meeting and video' ('VM + V), 'village meeting and diagrammatic handout' ('VM + HO') and 'village meeting, video and diagrammatic handout' ('VM + V + HO'). Smallholder dairy farmers were exposed to only one of these interventions, and the effectiveness of each was compared to a control ('C') group, who received no intervention. The mastitis knowledge of each farmer (n = 256) was evaluated by questionnaire both pre- and post-dissemination. Generalised linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the different interventions. The outcome variable considered was the probability of volunteering correct responses to mastitis questions post-dissemination, with 'village' and 'farmer' considered as random effects in the model. Results showed that all five interventions, 'HO' (odds ratio (OR) = 3.50, 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 3.10, 3.96), 'VM + V + HO' (OR = 3.34, 95% CI = 2.94, 3.78), 'VM + HO, (OR=3.28, 95% CI=2.90, 3.71), WM+V (OR=3.22, 95% CI=2.84, 3.64) and 'VM' (OR = 2.61, 95% CI = 2.31, 2.95), were significantly (p < 0.0001) more effective at disseminating mastitis knowledge than no intervention. In addition, the 'VM' method was less effective at disseminating mastitis knowledge than other interventions. Combinations of methods showed no advantage over the diagrammatic handout alone. Other explanatory variables with significant positive associations on mastitis knowledge included education to secondary school level or higher, and having previously learned about mastitis by reading pamphlets or attendance at an animal-health course. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of milk urea nitrogen as a diagnostic of protein feeding

An evaluation of milk urea nitrogen (MUN) as a diagnostic of protein feeding in dairy cows was performed using mean treatment data (n = 306) from 50 production trials conducted in Finland (n = 48) and Sweden (n = 2). Data were used to assess the effects of diet composition and certain animal characteristics on MUN and to derive relationships between MUN and the efficiency of N utilization for milk production and urinary N excretion. Relationships were developed using regression analysis based on either models of fixed factors or using mixed models that account for between-experiment variations. Dietary crude protein (CP) content was the best single predictor of MUN and accounted for proportionately 0.778 of total variance [ MUN (mg/dL) = -14.2 + 0.17 x dietary CP content (g/kg dry matter)]. The proportion of variation explained by this relationship increased to 0.952 when a mixed model including the random effects of study was used, but both the intercept and slope remained unchanged. Use of rumen degradable CP concentration in excess of predicted requirements, or the ratio of dietary CP to metabolizable energy as single predictors, did not explain more of the variation in MUN (R-2 = 0.767 or 0.778, respectively) than dietary CP content. Inclusion of other dietary factors with dietary CP content in bivariate models resulted in only marginally better predictions of MUN (R-2 = 0.785 to 0.804). Closer relationships existed between MUN and dietary factors when nutrients (CP to metabolizable energy) were expressed as concentrations in the diet, rather than absolute intakes. Furthermore, both MUN and MUN secretion (g/d) provided more accurate predictions of urinary N excretion (R-2 = 0.787 and 0.835, respectively) than measurements of the efficiency of N utilization for milk production (R-2 = 0.769). It is concluded that dietary CP content is the most important nutritional factor influencing MUN, and that measurements of MUN can be utilized as a diagnostic of protein feeding in the dairy cow and used to predict urinary N excretion.

Clinical predictors of response to cognitive-behavioural therapy in pediatric anxiety disorders: the Genes for Treatment (GXT) Study

Objective The Genes for Treatment study is an international, multisite collaboration exploring the role of genetic, demographic, and clinical predictors in response to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) in pediatric anxiety disorders. The current article, the first from the study, examined demographic and clinical predictors of response to CBT. We hypothesized that the child’s gender, type of anxiety disorder, initial severity and comorbidity, and parents’ psychopathology would significantly predict outcome. Method A sample of 1,519 children 5 to 18 years of age with a primary anxiety diagnosis received CBT across 11 sites. Outcome was defined as response (change in diagnostic severity) and remission (absence of the primary diagnosis) at each time point (posttreatment, 3-, 6-, and/or 12-month follow-up) and analyzed using linear and logistic mixed models. Separate analyses were conducted using data from posttreatment and follow-up assessments to explore the relative importance of predictors at these time points. Results Individuals with social anxiety disorder (SoAD) had significantly poorer outcomes (poorer response and lower rates of remission) than those with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Although individuals with specific phobia (SP) also had poorer outcomes than those with GAD at posttreatment, these differences were not maintained at follow-up. Both comorbid mood and externalizing disorders significantly predicted poorer outcomes at posttreatment and follow-up, whereas self-reported parental psychopathology had little effect on posttreatment outcomes but significantly predicted response (although not remission) at follow-up. Conclusion SoAD, nonanxiety comorbidity, and parental psychopathology were associated with poorer outcomes after CBT. The results highlight the need for enhanced treatments for children at risk for poorer outcomes.

Genome-wide association study of response to cognitive behavioural therapy in children with anxiety disorders

Background Anxiety disorders are common, and cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) is a first-line treatment. Candidate gene studies have suggested a genetic basis to treatment response, but findings have been inconsistent. Aims To perform the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) of psychological treatment response in children with anxiety disorders (n = 980). Method Presence and severity of anxiety was assessed using semi-structured interview at baseline, on completion of treatment (post-treatment), and 3 to 12 months after treatment completion (follow-up). DNA was genotyped using the Illumina Human Core Exome-12v1.0 array. Linear mixed models were used to test associations between genetic variants and response (change in symptom severity) immediately post-treatment and at 6-month follow-up. Results No variants passed a genome-wide significance threshold (P = 5×10−8) in either analysis. Four variants met criteria for suggestive significance (P<5×10−6) in association with response post-treatment, and three variants in the 6-month follow-up analysis. Conclusions This is the first genome-wide therapygenetic study. It suggests no common variants of very high effect underlie response to CBT. Future investigations should maximise power to detect single-variant and polygenic effects by using larger, more homogeneous cohorts.