866 resultados para Mixed effects model
Resumo:
In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.
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Creative Industries was adopted as a platform in the 90s by the Blair government in the UK to describe the convergence of the arts, media, communication and information technologies as a newly formed cluster, providing economic and cultural capital for the knowledge economy. The philosophy and rhetoric which has grown around this concept (Leadbeater 2000, Castells 2000, Florida 2000, Caves 2000, Hartley 2000) has been influential in re-contextualising culture and the arts in the 21st century. Where governments and educational institutions have embraced the context of the creative industries, it is having a profound effect on the way arts are being positioned, originally as ‘creative content’ for the new economy. Countries and regions which have actively targeted the Creative Industries as an important economic growth factor in a post-industrial environment are numerous, but it is interesting to note that North and South East Asia and Australia have been at the forefront of developing the Creative Industries in its various guises. It could be argued that the initial phase of Creative Industries concentrated on media and communication technologies to provide commercial outcomes in small incubator business models; developing, for example, products for the games industry. Creative Industries is now entering a second phase of development; one in which the broader palette of the arts, though still not at the forefront of debate, is being re-examined. Both phases of Creative Industries have emphasised creativity and innovation as key drivers in the success and effectiveness of this sector, and although the arts by no means has a monopoly on these drivers, it is where they have an important part to play in the creative industries context. Arguably, the second wave of the creative industries acknowledges to a greater extent that commercialisation works in tandem with government and other support in a complex mixed economic model. In relation to the performing arts, the global market has seen an increase in large-scale cultural events such as festivals which are providing employment for the arts industry and multiplier effects in other parts of the economy. Differentiated product is important in this competitive arena and the use of mediated and digitised environments has been able to increase the amount of arts product available to an international market. This changed environment requires the development of new skills for our artists and producers and has given rise to a reappraisal of approaches to arts training and research in the Higher Degree Education sector (Brown 2007, Cunningham 2006). This paper examines pedagogical changes which took place in the first Creative Industries Faculty in the world at Queensland University of Technology as well as the increased opportunities for leading research initiatives. It concludes with the example of an interdisciplinary artwork produced in a creative industries precinct, exemplifying the convergence of arts and communication technologies and that of artistic practice and research.
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Motorcycles are particularly vulnerable in right-angle crashes at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to explore how variations in roadway characteristics, environmental factors, traffic factors, maneuver types, human factors as well as driver demographics influence the right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at intersections. The problem is modeled using a mixed logit model with a binary choice category formulation to differentiate how an at-fault vehicle collides with a not-at-fault motorcycle in comparison to other collision types. The mixed logit formulation allows randomness in the parameters and hence takes into account the underlying heterogeneities potentially inherent in driver behavior, and other unobserved variables. A likelihood ratio test reveals that the mixed logit model is indeed better than the standard logit model. Night time riding shows a positive association with the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Moreover, motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable on single lane roads, on the curb and median lanes of multi-lane roads, and on one-way and two-way road type relative to divided-highway. Drivers who deliberately run red light as well as those who are careless towards motorcyclists especially when making turns at intersections increase the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Drivers appear more restrained when there is a passenger onboard and this has decreased the crash potential with motorcyclists. The presence of red light cameras also significantly decreases right-angle crash vulnerabilities of motorcyclists. The findings of this study would be helpful in developing more targeted countermeasures for traffic enforcement, driver/rider training and/or education, safety awareness programs to reduce the vulnerability of motorcyclists.
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This study examined the effects of personal and social resources, coping strategies and appraised stress on employees' levels of anxiety and depression. In relation to the effects of resources and coping strategies, two different models were tested. The main effects model proposes that, irrespective of the level of stress, coping resources and coping strategies have direct effects on well-being. In contrast, the buffering model predicts that the buffering effects of coping resources and strategies are only evident at high levels of stress. One hundred lawyers completed a structured self-administered questionnaire that measured their personal and social resources, use of problem-focused and emotion-focused coping strategies, and appraisals of the stressfulness of the situation. Results revealed generally strong support for the main effects model in the prediction of employee levels of anxiety and depression. Lower levels of anxiety were linked to judgements of lower levels of organizational change, greater self-confidence, greater internality of control beliefs and less use of emotion-focused coping strategies. Lower levels of depression in employees were also linked to judgements of lower levels of organizational change, greater use of resources and less appraised stress. There was only limited support for the buffering effects model. Due to the small size of the sample, the findings need to be explored further in other contexts.
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In this paper, we identify two types of injustice as antecedents of abusive supervision and ultimately of subordinate psychological distress and insomnia. We examine distributive justice (an individual's evaluation of their input to output ratio compared to relevant others) and interactional injustice (the quality of interpersonal treatment received when procedures are implemented). Using a sample of Filipinos in a variety of occupations, we identify two types of injustice experienced by supervisors as stressors that provoke them to display abusive supervision to their subordinates. We examine two consequences of abusive supervision - subordinate psychological distress and insomnia. In addition, we identify two moderators of these relationships, namely, supervisor distress and subordinate self-esteem. We collected survey data from multiple sources including subordinates, their supervisors, and their partners. Data were obtained from 175 matched supervisor-subordinate dyads over a 6-month period, with subordinates' partners providing ratings of insomnia. Results of structural equation modelling analyses provided support for an indirect effects model in which supervisors' experience of unfair treatment cascades down the organization, resulting in subordinate psychological distress and, ultimately in their insomnia. In addition, results partially supported the proposed moderated relationships in the cascading model. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.
Resumo:
Several common genetic variants have recently been discovered that appear to influence white matter microstructure, as measured by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Each genetic variant explains only a small proportion of the variance in brain microstructure, so we set out to explore their combined effect on the white matter integrity of the corpus callosum. We measured six common candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the COMT, NTRK1, BDNF, ErbB4, CLU, and HFE genes, and investigated their individual and aggregate effects on white matter structure in 395 healthy adult twins and siblings (age: 20-30 years). All subjects were scanned with 4-tesla 94-direction high angular resolution diffusion imaging. When combined using mixed-effects linear regression, a joint model based on five of the candidate SNPs (COMT, NTRK1, ErbB4, CLU, and HFE) explained ∼ 6% of the variance in the average fractional anisotropy (FA) of the corpus callosum. This predictive model had detectable effects on FA at 82% of the corpus callosum voxels, including the genu, body, and splenium. Predicting the brain's fiber microstructure from genotypes may ultimately help in early risk assessment, and eventually, in personalized treatment for neuropsychiatric disorders in which brain integrity and connectivity are affected.
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This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected
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Previous studies have shown that the external growth records of the posterior adductor muscle scar (PAMS) of the bivalve Pinna nobilis are incomplete and do not produce accurate age estimations. We have developed a new methodology to study age and growth using the inner record of the PAMS, which avoids the necessity of costly in situ shell measurements or isotopic studies. Using the inner record we identified the positions of PAMS previously obscured by nacre and estimated the number of missing records in adult specimens with strong abrasion of the calcite layer in the anterior portion of the shell. The study of the PAMS and inner record of two shells that were 6 years old when collected showed that only 2 and 3 PAMS were observed, while 6 inner records could be counted, thus confirming our working methodology. Growth parameters of a P. nobilis population located in Moraira, Spain (western Mediterranean) were estimated with the new methodology and compared to those obtained using PAMS data and in situ measurements. For the comparisons, we applied different models considering the data alternatively as length-at-age (LA) and tag-recapture (TR). Among every method we tested to fit the Von Bertalanffy growth model, we observed that LA data from inner record fitted to the model using non-linear mixed effects and the estimation of missing records using the calcite width was the most appropriate. The equation obtained with this method, L = 573*(1 - e(-0.16(t-0.02))), is very similar to that calculated previously from in situ measurements for the same population.
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Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.
Resumo:
This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Cyclosporine is an immunosuppressant drug with a narrow therapeutic index and large variability in pharmacokinetics. To improve cyclosporine dose individualization in children, we used population pharmacokinetic modeling to study the effects of developmental, clinical, and genetic factors on cyclosporine pharmacokinetics in altogether 176 subjects (age range: 0.36–20.2 years) before and up to 16 years after renal transplantation. Pre-transplantation test doses of cyclosporine were given intravenously (3 mg/kg) and orally (10 mg/kg), on separate occasions, followed by blood sampling for 24 hours (n=175). After transplantation, in a total of 137 patients, cyclosporine concentration was quantified at trough, two hours post-dose, or with dose-interval curves. One-hundred-four of the studied patients were genotyped for 17 putatively functionally significant sequence variations in the ABCB1, SLCO1B1, ABCC2, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, and NR1I2 genes. Pharmacokinetic modeling was performed with the nonlinear mixed effects modeling computer program, NONMEM. A 3-compartment population pharmacokinetic model with first order absorption without lag-time was used to describe the data. The most important covariate affecting systemic clearance and distribution volume was allometrically scaled body weight i.e. body weight**3/4 for clearance and absolute body weight for volume of distribution. The clearance adjusted by absolute body weight declined with age and pre-pubertal children (< 8 years) had an approximately 25% higher clearance/body weight (L/h/kg) than did older children. Adjustment of clearance for allometric body weight removed its relationship to age after the first year of life. This finding is consistent with a gradual reduction in relative liver size towards adult values, and a relatively constant CYP3A content in the liver from about 6–12 months of age to adulthood. The other significant covariates affecting cyclosporine clearance and volume of distribution were hematocrit, plasma cholesterol, and serum creatinine, explaining up to 20%–30% of inter-individual differences before transplantation. After transplantation, their predictive role was smaller, as the variations in hematocrit, plasma cholesterol, and serum creatinine were also smaller. Before transplantation, no clinical or demographic covariates were found to affect oral bioavailability, and no systematic age-related changes in oral bioavailability were observed. After transplantation, older children receiving cyclosporine twice daily as the gelatine capsule microemulsion formulation had an about 1.25–1.3 times higher bioavailability than did the younger children receiving the liquid microemulsion formulation thrice daily. Moreover, cyclosporine oral bioavailability increased over 1.5-fold in the first month after transplantation, returning thereafter gradually to its initial value in 1–1.5 years. The largest cyclosporine doses were administered in the first 3–6 months after transplantation, and thereafter the single doses of cyclosporine were often smaller than 3 mg/kg. Thus, the results suggest that cyclosporine displays dose-dependent, saturable pre-systemic metabolism even at low single doses, whereas complete saturation of CYP3A4 and MDR1 (P-glycoprotein) renders cyclosporine pharmacokinetics dose-linear at higher doses. No significant associations were found between genetic polymorphisms and cyclosporine pharmacokinetics before transplantation in the whole population for which genetic data was available (n=104). However, in children older than eight years (n=22), heterozygous and homozygous carriers of the ABCB1 c.2677T or c.1236T alleles had an about 1.3 times or 1.6 times higher oral bioavailability, respectively, than did non-carriers. After transplantation, none of the ABCB1 SNPs or any other SNPs were found to be associated with cyclosporine clearance or oral bioavailability in the whole population, in the patients older than eight years, or in the patients younger than eight years. In the whole population, in those patients carrying the NR1I2 g.-25385C–g.-24381A–g.-205_-200GAGAAG–g.7635G–g.8055C haplotype, however, the bioavailability of cyclosporine was about one tenth lower, per allele, than in non-carriers. This effect was significant also in a subgroup of patients older than eight years. Furthermore, in patients carrying the NR1I2 g.-25385C–g.-24381A–g.-205_-200GAGAAG–g.7635G–g.8055T haplotype, the bioavailability was almost one fifth higher, per allele, than in non-carriers. It may be possible to improve individualization of cyclosporine dosing in children by accounting for the effects of developmental factors (body weight, liver size), time after transplantation, and cyclosporine dosing frequency/formulation. Further studies are required on the predictive value of genotyping for individualization of cyclosporine dosing in children.
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Invasive species, local plant communities and invaded ecosystems change over space and time. Quantifying this change may lead to a better understanding of the ecology and the effective management of invasive species. We used data on density of the highly invasive shrub Lantana camara (lantana) for the period 1990-2008 from a 50 ha permanent plot in a seasonally dry tropical forest of Mudumalai in southern India. We used a cumulative link mixed-effects regression approach to model the transition of lantana from one qualitative density state to another as a function of biotic factors such as indicators of competition from local species (lantana itself, perennial grasses, invasive Chromolaena odorata, the native shrub Helicteres isora and basal area of native trees) and abiotic factors such as fire frequency, inter-annual variability of rainfall and relative soil moisture. The density of lantana increased substantially during the study period. Lantana density was negatively associated with the density of H. isora, positively associated with basal area of native trees, but not affected by the presence of grasses or other invasive species. In the absence of fire, lantana density increased with increasing rainfall. When fires occurred, transitions to higher densities occurred at low rainfall values. In drier regions, lantana changed from low to high density as rainfall increased while in wetter regions of the plot, lantana persisted in the dense category irrespective of rainfall. Lantana seems to effectively utilize resources distributed in space and time to its advantage, thus outcompeting local species and maintaining a population that is not yet self-limiting. High-risk areas and years could potentially be identified based on inferences from this study for facilitating management of lantana in tropical dry forests.
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Cancer chemotherapy has advanced from highly toxic drugs to more targeted treatments in the last 70 years. Chapter 1 opens with an introduction to targeted therapy for cancer. The benefits of using a nanoparticle to deliver therapeutics are discussed. We move on to siRNA in particular, and why it would be advantageous as a therapy. Specific to siRNA delivery are some challenges, such as nuclease degradation, quick clearance from circulation, needing to enter cells, and getting to the cytosol. We propose the development of a nanoparticle delivery system to tackle these challenges so that siRNA can be effective.
Chapter 2 of this thesis discusses the synthesis and analysis of a cationic mucic acid polymer (cMAP) which condenses siRNA to form a nanoparticle. Various methods to add polyethylene glycol (PEG) for stabilizing the nanoparticle in physiologic solutions, including using a boronic acid binding to diols on mucic acid, forming a copolymer of cMAP with PEG, and creating a triblock with mPEG on both ends of cMAP. The goal of these various pegylation strategies was to increase the circulation time of the siRNA nanoparticle in the bloodstream to allow more of the nanoparticle to reach tumor tissue by the enhanced permeation and retention effect. We found that the triblock mPEG-cMAP-PEGm polymer condensed siRNA to form very stable 30-40 nm particles that circulated for the longest time – almost 10% of the formulation remained in the bloodstream of mice 1 h after intravenous injection.
Chapter 3 explores the use of an antibody as a targeting agent for nanoparticles. Some antibodies of the IgG1 subtype are able to recruit natural killer cells that effect antibody dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) to kill the targeted cell to which the antibody is bound. There is evidence that the ADCC effect remains in antibody-drug conjugates, so we wanted to know whether the ADCC effect is preserved when the antibody is bound to a nanoparticle, which is a much larger and complex entity. We utilized antibodies against epidermal growth factor receptor with similar binding and pharmacokinetics, cetuximab and panitumumab, which differ in that cetuximab is an IgG1 and panitumumab is an IgG2 (which does not cause ADCC). Although a natural killer cell culture model showed that gold nanoparticles with a full antibody targeting agent can elicit target cell lysis, we found that this effect was not preserved in vivo. Whether this is due to the antibody not being accessible to immune cells or whether the natural killer cells are inactivated in a tumor xenograft remains unknown. It is possible that using a full antibody still has value if there are immune functions which are altered in a complex in vivo environment that are intact in an in vitro system, so the value of using a full antibody as a targeting agent versus using an antibody fragment or a protein such as transferrin is still open to further exploration.
In chapter 4, nanoparticle targeting and endosomal escape are further discussed with respect to the cMAP nanoparticle system. A diboronic acid entity, which gives an order of magnitude greater binding (than boronic acid) to cMAP due to the vicinal diols in mucic acid, was synthesized, attached to 5kD or 10kD PEG, and conjugated to either transferrin or cetuximab. A histidine was incorporated into the triblock polymer between cMAP and the PEG blocks to allow for siRNA endosomal escape. Nanoparticle size remained 30-40 nm with a slightly negative ca. -3 mV zeta potential with the triblock polymer containing histidine and when targeting agents were added. Greater mRNA knockdown was seen with the endosomal escape mechanism than without. The nanoparticle formulations were able to knock down the targeted mRNA in vitro. Mixed effects suggesting function were seen in vivo.
Chapter 5 summarizes the project and provides an outlook on siRNA delivery as well as targeted combination therapies for the future of personalized medicine in cancer treatment.
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The recovery of benthic communities inside the western Gulf of Maine fishing closure area was evaluated by comparing invertebrate assemblages at sites inside and outside of the closure four to six years after the closure was established. The major restriction imposed by the closure was a year-round prohibition of bottom gillnets and otter trawls. A total of 163 seafloor sites (~half inside and half outside the closure) within a 515-km2 study area were sampled with some combination of Shipek grab, Wildco box corer, or underwater video. Bottom types ranged from mud (silt and clay) to boulders, and the effects of the closure on univariate measures (total density, biomass, taxonomic richness) of benthos varied widely among sediment types. For sites with predominantly mud sediments, there were mixed effects on inside and outside infauna and no effect on epifauna. For sites with mainly sand sediments, there were higher density, biomass, and taxonomic richness for infauna inside the closure, but no significant effects on epifauna. For sites dominated by gravel (which included boulders in some areas), there were no effects on infauna but strong effects on epifaunal density and taxonomic richness. For fishing gear, the data indicated that infauna recovered in sand from the impacts of otter trawls operated inside the closure but that they did not recover in mud, and that epifauna recovered on gravel bottoms from the impact of gillnets used inside the closure. The magnitudes of impact and recovery, however, cannot be inferred directly from our data because of a confounding factor of different fishing intensities outside the closure for a direct comparison of preclosure and postclosure data. The overall negative impact of trawls is likely underestimated by our data, whereas the negative impact of gillnets is likely overestimated.
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Estudos epidemiológicos têm mostrado rápido aumento na prevalência de sobrepeso e obesidade, tanto na população adulta quanto em crianças e adolescentes, sendo o exercício físico considerado uma importante estratégia tanto na prevenção quanto no tratamento do ganho de peso. Apesar disso, estudos que avaliam os efeitos isolados do exercício físico no controle ponderal têm apresentado resultados conflitantes. Esses achados podem ser explicados por um possível efeito compensatório provocado pela sessão de exercício nas atividades físicas realizadas em períodos subsequentes. Portanto, o objetivo deste estudo é avaliar o efeito de diferentes intensidades do exercício físico no gasto energético com atividades físicas em adolescentes com excesso de peso. O desenho do estudo foi experimental do tipo crossover com realização de três sessões (controle, exercício moderado e exercício vigoroso). Vinte e quatro adolescentes de 11 a 13 anos, estudantes da rede municipal de ensino de Niterói-RJ, do sexo masculino e com excesso de peso concordaram em participar do estudo. O gasto energético com atividades físicas foi avaliado por acelerômetros triaxiais colocados durante as sessões experimentais e retirado após seis dias. Os dados referentes ao gasto energético associado às atividades físicas foram avaliados na 1 hora de utilização do acelerômetro e durante os seis dias de acompanhamento. Além disso, os valores também foram tratados de forma cumulativa, tendo sido calculado o gasto energético total de 24, 48, 72, 96, 120 e 144 horas. Análise de variância foi utilizada para avaliar as possíveis diferenças entre o gasto energético na primeira hora de registro entre os três grupos seguida do teste post hoc de Scheffé. A comparação das variações das médias de gasto energético (por dia e acumuladas) foi realizada por meio de modelos lineares mistos. A comparação do gasto energético durante a 1 hora de registro demonstrou diferença significativa entre todos três grupos, com médias de 82, 286 e 343 kcal para os grupos controle, moderado e intenso, respectivamente (p<0.001). O mesmo padrão de diferença para o gasto energético entre os grupos se manteve ao final de 24 horas (704 vs 970 vs 1056 kcal, p<0.001) e no gasto energético acumulado durante os seis dias de acompanhamento (5102 vs 5193 vs 5271 kcal, p<0.001). A análise do gasto energético por dia demonstrou uma redução do gasto energético dos grupos moderado e vigoroso a partir do segundo dia e que se manteve até o sexto dia de acompanhamento. Desse modo, pode-se concluir que uma única sessão de exercício físico aeróbio parece modificar o comportamento das atividades físicas espontâneas realizadas ao longo de 6 dias em adolescentes com excesso de peso. Entretanto, apesar do efeito compensatório observado, o gasto energético acumulado durante os seis dias para os grupos que realizaram as sessões de exercícios foi superior ao da sessão controle, tendo o grupo vigoroso apresentado o maior dispêndio acumulado para o período de acompanhamento. Futuros estudos são necessários de modo a investigar a compensação do gasto energético em obesos e não obesos e o efeito de um número maior de sessões de treinamento.