A framework for adapting survey design through time for wildlife population assessment

Sampling strategies for monitoring the status and trends in wildlife populations are often determined before the first survey is undertaken. However, there may be little information about the distribution of the population and so the sample design may be inefficient. Through time, as data are collected, more information about the distribution of animals in the survey region is obtained but it can be difficult to incorporate this information in the survey design. This paper introduces a framework for monitoring motile wildlife populations within which the design of future surveys can be adapted using data from past surveys whilst ensuring consistency in design-based estimates of status and trends through time. In each survey, part of the sample is selected from the previous survey sample using simple random sampling. The rest is selected with inclusion probability proportional to predicted abundance. Abundance is predicted using a model constructed from previous survey data and covariates for the whole survey region. Unbiased design-based estimators of status and trends and their variances are derived from two-phase sampling theory. Simulations over the short and long-term indicate that in general more precise estimates of status and trends are obtained using this mixed strategy than a strategy in which all of the sample is retained or all selected with probability proportional to predicted abundance. Furthermore the mixed strategy is robust to poor predictions of abundance. Estimates of status are more precise than those obtained from a rotating panel design.

Towards global drought early warning capability: expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for global drought monitoring and forecasting

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts and especially 47 on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF) and the recent progress made towards its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global real-time drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental to global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in-situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress towards meeting these challenges and developing a global system.

MetUM-GOML: a near-globally coupled atmosphere–ocean-mixed-layer model

Well-resolved air–sea interactions are simulated in a new ocean mixed-layer, coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM-GOML), comprising the MetUM coupled to the Multi-Column K Profile Parameterization ocean (MC-KPP). This is the first globally coupled system which provides a vertically resolved, high near-surface resolution ocean at comparable computational cost to running in atmosphere-only mode. As well as being computationally inexpensive, this modelling framework is adaptable– the independent MC-KPP columns can be applied selectively in space and time – and controllable – by using temperature and salinity corrections the model can be constrained to any ocean state. The framework provides a powerful research tool for process-based studies of the impact of air–sea interactions in the global climate system. MetUM simulations have been performed which separate the impact of introducing inter- annual variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the impact of having atmosphere–ocean feedbacks. The representation of key aspects of tropical and extratropical variability are used to assess the performance of these simulations. Coupling the MetUM to MC-KPP is shown, for example, to reduce tropical precipitation biases, improve the propagation of, and spectral power associated with, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and produce closer-to-observed patterns of springtime blocking activity over the Euro-Atlantic region.

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

Um estudo sobre o estágio supervisionado na formação inicial de professores de matemática na Bahia

This work arose from our concerns with the issues of teacher training for early childhood education. From the difficulties encountered as a novice teacher in elementary, we deem important to research training needs of these professionals. Thus, we define the objective of this research to investigate the training needs of novice teachers teaching Early Childhood Education/Elementary school. Our work fits in Educational Research Qualitative Approach, and its construction procedures of the semistructured interview data and document analysis. Our empirical field was made up of schools in the metropolitan region of Natal / RN, offering kindergarten / elementary school. The subjects are five teachers who act as holder of the elementary school class and have 0-3 years of teaching practice, characterizing the second Huberman (2007) as novice teachers. Data analysis, based on principles of content analysis, three themes emerged: Beginner Teaching Professor in Early Childhood Education / Preschool; Reasons explaining the difficulties Faculty / Formative Needs Teaching and Training in Early Childhood Education / Elementary school, from the Training Needs Analysis, with their respective categories, subcategories, contributing to our understanding of the subject matter. The entry into the profession is marked by mixed feelings of euphoria and fear, where there seems to be a "clash" with reality. The difficulties are related to the planning / execution of activities, meet the individual needs of learning and assessment of children. As a strategy to overcome the difficulties the teachers exercise the action-reflection-action in their practices and seek continuous updates in the theoretical and methodological framework of early childhood education. The reasons that define these difficulties may be related to the teacher, school, family, and students of these institutions. In experiencing these difficulties has outlined the need for teacher training, among which stand out studies on ethics in teaching with children, the concept of children and their childhoods, peculiarities of teaching / learning in preschool, toys and legal determinations on early childhood education, multi-language and expressions in early childhood education, specific content areas of knowledge, among others. Furthermore, studies on the theoretical as Piaget, Vigotsky, Maria Carmen Barbosa and Emily Smith. For these professionals to be a professional early childhood education is: like children, be patient and careful, have specific theoretical and practical training for teachers in kindergarten, being able to improvise with seriousness and competence and get updates on continuing education. The surveys, together with the authors and teachers, to confirm our understanding that the training needs of beginners may be related to shortcomings in the initial and continuing education

Necessidades de formação de professoras principiantes da educação infantil/pré-escola

This work arose from our concerns with the issues of teacher training for early childhood education. From the difficulties encountered as a novice teacher in elementary, we deem important to research training needs of these professionals. Thus, we define the objective of this research to investigate the training needs of novice teachers teaching Early Childhood Education/Elementary school. Our work fits in Educational Research Qualitative Approach, and its construction procedures of the semistructured interview data and document analysis. Our empirical field was made up of schools in the metropolitan region of Natal / RN, offering kindergarten / elementary school. The subjects are five teachers who act as holder of the elementary school class and have 0-3 years of teaching practice, characterizing the second Huberman (2007) as novice teachers. Data analysis, based on principles of content analysis, three themes emerged: Beginner Teaching Professor in Early Childhood Education / Preschool; Reasons explaining the difficulties Faculty / Formative Needs Teaching and Training in Early Childhood Education / Elementary school, from the Training Needs Analysis, with their respective categories, subcategories, contributing to our understanding of the subject matter. The entry into the profession is marked by mixed feelings of euphoria and fear, where there seems to be a "clash" with reality. The difficulties are related to the planning / execution of activities, meet the individual needs of learning and assessment of children. As a strategy to overcome the difficulties the teachers exercise the action-reflection-action in their practices and seek continuous updates in the theoretical and methodological framework of early childhood education. The reasons that define these difficulties may be related to the teacher, school, family, and students of these institutions. In experiencing these difficulties has outlined the need for teacher training, among which stand out studies on ethics in teaching with children, the concept of children and their childhoods, peculiarities of teaching / learning in preschool, toys and legal determinations on early childhood education, multi-language and expressions in early childhood education, specific content areas of knowledge, among others. Furthermore, studies on the theoretical as Piaget, Vigotsky, Maria Carmen Barbosa and Emily Smith. For these professionals to be a professional early childhood education is: like children, be patient and careful, have specific theoretical and practical training for teachers in kindergarten, being able to improvise with seriousness and competence and get updates on continuing education. The surveys, together with the authors and teachers, to confirm our understanding that the training needs of beginners may be related to shortcomings in the initial and continuing education

Bayesian longitudinal data analysis with mixed models and thick-tailed distributions using MCMC

Linear mixed effects models are frequently used to analyse longitudinal data, due to their flexibility in modelling the covariance structure between and within observations. Further, it is easy to deal with unbalanced data, either with respect to the number of observations per subject or per time period, and with varying time intervals between observations. In most applications of mixed models to biological sciences, a normal distribution is assumed both for the random effects and for the residuals. This, however, makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed models employing thick-tailed distributions for robust inferences in longitudinal data analysis are described. Specific distributions discussed include the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted, and the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are used to carry out the posterior analyses. An example with data on orthodontic distance growth in children is discussed to illustrate the methodology. Analyses based on either the Student-t distribution or on the usual Gaussian assumption are contrasted. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process for modelling distributions of the random effects and of residuals in linear mixed models, and the MCMC implementation allows the computations to be performed in a flexible manner.

Robust linear mixed models with normal/independent distributions and Bayesian MCMC implementation

Linear mixed effects models have been widely used in analysis of data where responses are clustered around some random effects, so it is not reasonable to assume independence between observations in the same cluster. In most biological applications, it is assumed that the distributions of the random effects and of the residuals are Gaussian. This makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed effects models with normal/independent residual distributions for robust inferences are described. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted and Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to carry out the posterior analysis. The procedures are illustrated using birth weight data on rats in a texicological experiment. Results from the Gaussian and robust models are contrasted, and it is shown how the implementation can be used for outlier detection. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process in linear mixed models, and they are easily implemented using data augmentation and MCMC techniques.

Environmental training in organisations: From a literature review to a framework for future research

Although the research on the relationship between human factors and environmental sustainability is slowly progressing, environmental training has attracted the most attention from researchers and practitioners. However, there remains a lack of research that integrates and systematises the available knowledge on organisational environmental training. Environmental training is fundamental to any successful activity of environmental management, conservation and recycling of resources. Thus, the aim of this paper was to present the results of a systematic literature review on environmental training in organisations. The main studies in this area were classified and coded, and a research agenda with 9 recommendations that may advance the field was presented. As a result of the gaps in the current literature, a framework was proposed aiming guide and strengthens the state-of-the-art research on environmental training. Additionally, results show that more research is needed on environmental training, combining training and green human resource management and defining/measuring the objectives of the environmental training actions. Future studies should also consider mixed methodologies and comparative perspectives. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Laser emission of a Nd-doped mixed tellurite and zinc oxide glass

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Enhanced Mixed Integer Programming Techniques and Routing Problems

Mixed integer programming is up today one of the most widely used techniques for dealing with hard optimization problems. On the one side, many practical optimization problems arising from real-world applications (such as, e.g., scheduling, project planning, transportation, telecommunications, economics and finance, timetabling, etc) can be easily and effectively formulated as Mixed Integer linear Programs (MIPs). On the other hand, 50 and more years of intensive research has dramatically improved on the capability of the current generation of MIP solvers to tackle hard problems in practice. However, many questions are still open and not fully understood, and the mixed integer programming community is still more than active in trying to answer some of these questions. As a consequence, a huge number of papers are continuously developed and new intriguing questions arise every year. When dealing with MIPs, we have to distinguish between two different scenarios. The first one happens when we are asked to handle a general MIP and we cannot assume any special structure for the given problem. In this case, a Linear Programming (LP) relaxation and some integrality requirements are all we have for tackling the problem, and we are ``forced" to use some general purpose techniques. The second one happens when mixed integer programming is used to address a somehow structured problem. In this context, polyhedral analysis and other theoretical and practical considerations are typically exploited to devise some special purpose techniques. This thesis tries to give some insights in both the above mentioned situations. The first part of the work is focused on general purpose cutting planes, which are probably the key ingredient behind the success of the current generation of MIP solvers. Chapter 1 presents a quick overview of the main ingredients of a branch-and-cut algorithm, while Chapter 2 recalls some results from the literature in the context of disjunctive cuts and their connections with Gomory mixed integer cuts. Chapter 3 presents a theoretical and computational investigation of disjunctive cuts. In particular, we analyze the connections between different normalization conditions (i.e., conditions to truncate the cone associated with disjunctive cutting planes) and other crucial aspects as cut rank, cut density and cut strength. We give a theoretical characterization of weak rays of the disjunctive cone that lead to dominated cuts, and propose a practical method to possibly strengthen those cuts arising from such weak extremal solution. Further, we point out how redundant constraints can affect the quality of the generated disjunctive cuts, and discuss possible ways to cope with them. Finally, Chapter 4 presents some preliminary ideas in the context of multiple-row cuts. Very recently, a series of papers have brought the attention to the possibility of generating cuts using more than one row of the simplex tableau at a time. Several interesting theoretical results have been presented in this direction, often revisiting and recalling other important results discovered more than 40 years ago. However, is not clear at all how these results can be exploited in practice. As stated, the chapter is a still work-in-progress and simply presents a possible way for generating two-row cuts from the simplex tableau arising from lattice-free triangles and some preliminary computational results. The second part of the thesis is instead focused on the heuristic and exact exploitation of integer programming techniques for hard combinatorial optimization problems in the context of routing applications. Chapters 5 and 6 present an integer linear programming local search algorithm for Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs). The overall procedure follows a general destroy-and-repair paradigm (i.e., the current solution is first randomly destroyed and then repaired in the attempt of finding a new improved solution) where a class of exponential neighborhoods are iteratively explored by heuristically solving an integer programming formulation through a general purpose MIP solver. Chapters 7 and 8 deal with exact branch-and-cut methods. Chapter 7 presents an extended formulation for the Traveling Salesman Problem with Time Windows (TSPTW), a generalization of the well known TSP where each node must be visited within a given time window. The polyhedral approaches proposed for this problem in the literature typically follow the one which has been proven to be extremely effective in the classical TSP context. Here we present an overall (quite) general idea which is based on a relaxed discretization of time windows. Such an idea leads to a stronger formulation and to stronger valid inequalities which are then separated within the classical branch-and-cut framework. Finally, Chapter 8 addresses the branch-and-cut in the context of Generalized Minimum Spanning Tree Problems (GMSTPs) (i.e., a class of NP-hard generalizations of the classical minimum spanning tree problem). In this chapter, we show how some basic ideas (and, in particular, the usage of general purpose cutting planes) can be useful to improve on branch-and-cut methods proposed in the literature.

A bayesian model for mixed responses and skew laten variable to measure HRQoL in children

The aim of the thesi is to formulate a suitable Item Response Theory (IRT) based model to measure HRQoL (as latent variable) using a mixed responses questionnaire and relaxing the hypothesis of normal distributed latent variable. The new model is a combination of two models already presented in literature, that is, a latent trait model for mixed responses and an IRT model for Skew Normal latent variable. It is developed in a Bayesian framework, a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to generate samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest. The proposed model is test on a questionnaire composed by 5 discrete items and one continuous to measure HRQoL in children, the EQ-5D-Y questionnaire. A large sample of children collected in the schools was used. In comparison with a model for only discrete responses and a model for mixed responses and normal latent variable, the new model has better performances, in term of deviance information criterion (DIC), chain convergences times and precision of the estimates.

Does improvisation lead to outcome deviation? A conceptual framework of improvisation, its antecedents and outcome deviation

Management and organization literature has extensively noticed the crucial role that improvisation assumes in organizations, both as a learning process (Miner, Bassoff & Moorman, 2001), a creative process (Fisher & Amabile, 2008), a capability (Vera & Crossan, 2005), and a personal disposition (Hmielesky & Corbett, 2006; 2008). My dissertation aims to contribute to the existing literature on improvisation, addressing two general research questions: 1) How does improvisation unfold at an individual level? 2) What are the potential antecedents and consequences of individual proclivity to improvise? This dissertation is based on a mixed methodology that allowed me to deal with these two general research questions and enabled a constant interaction between the theoretical framework and the empirical results. The selected empirical field is haute cuisine and the respondents are the executive chefs of the restaurants awarded by Michelin Guide in 2010 in Italy. The qualitative section of the dissertation is based on the analysis of 26 inductive case studies and offers a multifaceted contribution. First, I describe how improvisation works both as a learning and creative process. Second, I introduce a new categorization of individual improvisational scenarios (demanded creative improvisation, problem solving improvisation, and pure creative improvisation). Third, I describe the differences between improvisation and other creative processes detected in the field (experimentation, brainstorming, trial and error through analytical procedure, trial and error, and imagination). The quantitative inquiry is founded on a Structural Equation Model, which allowed me to test simultaneously the relationships between proclivity to improvise and its antecedents and consequences. In particular, using a newly developed scale to measure individual proclivity to improvise, I test the positive influence of industry experience, self-efficacy, and age on proclivity to improvise and the negative impact of proclivity to improvise on outcome deviation. Theoretical contributions and practical implications of the results are discussed.

Factorization method and inclusions of mixed type in an inverse elliptic boundary value problem

In various imaging problems the task is to use the Cauchy data of the solutions to an elliptic boundary value problem to reconstruct the coefficients of the corresponding partial differential equation. Often the examined object has known background properties but is contaminated by inhomogeneities that cause perturbations of the coefficient functions. The factorization method of Kirsch provides a tool for locating such inclusions. In this paper, the factorization technique is studied in the framework of coercive elliptic partial differential equations of the divergence type: Earlier it has been demonstrated that the factorization algorithm can reconstruct the support of a strictly positive (or negative) definite perturbation of the leading order coefficient, or if that remains unperturbed, the support of a strictly positive (or negative) perturbation of the zeroth order coefficient. In this work we show that these two types of inhomogeneities can, in fact, be located simultaneously. Unlike in the earlier articles on the factorization method, our inclusions may have disconnected complements and we also weaken some other a priori assumptions of the method. Our theoretical findings are complemented by two-dimensional numerical experiments that are presented in the framework of the diffusion approximation of optical tomography.

The impact of ice crystals on radiative forcing and remote sensing of arctic boundary-layer mixed-phase clouds

This PhD thesis is embedded into the Arctic Study of Tropospheric Aerosol, Clouds and Radiation (ASTAR) and investigates the radiative transfer through Arctic boundary-layer mixed-phase (ABM) clouds. For this purpose airborne spectral solar radiation measurements and simulations of the solar and thermal infrared radiative transfer have been performed. This work reports on measurements with the Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation measurement sysTem (SMART-Albedometer) conducted in the framework of ASTAR in April 2007 close to Svalbard. For ASTAR the SMART-Albedometer was extended to measure spectral radiance. The development and calibration of the radiance measurements are described in this work. In combination with in situ measurements of cloud particle properties provided by the Laboratoire de M¶et¶eorologie Physique (LaMP) and simultaneous airborne lidar measurements by the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) ABM clouds were sampled. The SMART-Albedometer measurements were used to retrieve the cloud thermodynamic phase by three different approaches. A comparison of these results with the in situ and lidar measurements is presented in two case studies. Beside the dominating mixed-phase clouds pure ice clouds were found in cloud gaps and at the edge of a large cloud field. Furthermore the vertical distribution of ice crystals within ABM clouds was investigated. It was found that ice crystals at cloud top are necessary to describe the observed SMART-Albedometer measurements. The impact of ice crystals on the radiative forcing of ABM clouds is in vestigated by extensive radiative transfer simulations. The solar and net radiative forcing was found to depend on the ice crystal size, shape and the mixing ratio of ice crystals and liquid water droplets.