An evaluation of the simulated water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa at 6000 yr B.P. using lake status data

Changes in the water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa in response to insolation forcing at 6000 y BP simulated by five atmospheric general circulation models have been compared with observations of changes in lake status. All of the simulations show enhancement of the Asian summer monsoon and of the high pressure cells over the Pacific and Central Asia and the Middle East, causing wetter conditions in northern India and southern China and drier conditions along the Chinese coast and west of the monsoon core. All of the models show enhancement of the African monsoon, causing wetter conditions in the zone between ca 10–20 °N. Four of the models show conditions wetter than present in southern Europe and drier than present in northern Europe. Three of the models show conditions similar to present in the mid-latitude continental interior, while the remaining models show conditions somewhat drier than present. The extent and location of each of the simulated changes varies between the models, as does the mechanism producing these changes. The lake data confirm some features of the simulations, but indicate discrepancies between observed and simulated climates. For example, the data show: (1) conditions wetter than present in central Asia, from India to northern China and Mongolia, indicating that the simulated Asian monsoon expansion is too small; (2) conditions wetter than present between ca. 10–30 °N in Africa, indicating that the simulated African monsoon expansion is too small; (3) that northern Europe was drier, but the area of significantly drier conditions was more localized (around the Baltic) than shown in the simulations; (4) that southern Europe was wetter than present, apparently consistent with the simulations, but pollen data suggest that this reflects an increase in summer rainfall whereas the models show winter precipitation, and (5) that the mid-latitude continental interior was generally wetter than present.

The response of northern hemisphere extratropical climate and vegetation to orbitally-induced changes in insolation during the last interglaciation

The last interglaciation (substage 5e) provides an opportunity to examine the effects of extreme orbital changes on regional climates. We have made two atmospheric general circulation model experiments: P+T+ approximated the northern hemisphere seasonality maximum near the beginning of 5e; P-T- approximated the minimum near the end of 5e. Simulated regional climate changes have been translated into biome changes using a physiologically based model of global vegetation types. Major climatic and vegetational changes were simulated for the northern hemisphere extratropics, due to radiational effects that were both amplified and modified by atmospheric circulation changes and sea-ice feedback. P+T+ showed mid-continental summers up to 8°C warmer than present. Mid-latitude winters were 2-4°C cooler than present but in the Arctic, summer warmth reduced sea-ice extent and thickness, producing winters 2-8°C warmer than present. The tundra and taiga biomes were displaced poleward, while warm-summer steppes expanded in the mid latitudes due to drought. P-T- showed summers up to 5°C cooler than present, especially in mid latitudes. Sea ice and snowpack were thicker and lasted longer; polar desert, tundra, and taiga biomes were displaced equatorward, while cool-summer steppes and semideserts expanded due to the cooling. A slight winter warming in mid latitudes, however, caused warm-temperate evergreen forests and scrub to expand poleward. Such qualitative contrasts in the direction of climate and vegetation change during 5e should be identifiable in the paleorecord

The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration

The latest coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (Global Coupled configuration 2, GC2) is presented. This paper documents the model components which make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components is detailed elsewhere) and provides a description of the coupling between the components. The performance of GC2 in terms of its systematic errors is assessed using a variety of diagnostic techniques. The configuration is intended to be used by the Met Office and collaborating institutes across a range of timescales, with the seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) and climate projection system (HadGEM) being the initial users. In this paper GC2 is compared against the model currently used operationally in those two systems. Overall GC2 is shown to be an improvement on the configurations used currently, particularly in terms of modes of variability (e.g. mid-latitude and tropical cyclone intensities, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation). A number of outstanding errors are identified with the most significant being a considerable warm bias over the Southern Ocean and a dry precipitation bias in the Indian and West African summer monsoons. Research to address these is ongoing.

The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill.

Annular modes and apparent eddy feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere

Lagged correlation analysis is often used to infer intraseasonal dynamical effects but is known to be affected by non-stationarity. We highlight a pronounced quasi-two-year peak in the anomalous zonal wind and eddy momentum flux convergence power spectra in the Southern Hemisphere, which is prima facie evidence for non-stationarity. We then investigate the consequences of this non-stationarity for the Southern Annular Mode and for eddy momentum flux convergence. We argue that positive lagged correlations previously attributed to the existence of an eddy feedback are more plausibly attributed to non-stationary interannual variability external to any potential feedback process in the mid-latitude troposphere. The findings have implications for the diagnosis of feedbacks in both models and re-analysis data as well as for understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in the zonal wind.

Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes

Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world's poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.

Formulation of a tropical town energy budget (t-TEB) scheme

This work describes the tropical town energy budget (t-TEB) scheme addressed to simulate the diurnal occurrence of the urban heat island (UHI) as observed in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ; -22A degrees S; -44A degrees W) in Brazil. Reasoning about the tropical urban climate have guided the scheme implementation, starting from the original equations from Masson (Bound-Lay Meteorol 94:357-397, 2000). The modifications include (a) local scaling approaches for obtaining flux-gradient relationships in the roughness sub-layer, (b) the Monin-Obukhov similarity framework in the inertial sub-layer, (c) increasing aerodynamic conductance toward more unstable conditions, and (d) a modified urban subsurface drainage system to transfer the intercepted rainwater by roofs to the roads. Simulations along 2007 for the MARJ are obtained and compared with the climatology. The t-TEB simulation is consistent with the observations, suggesting that the timing and dynamics of the UHI in tropical cities could vary significantly from the familiar patterns observed in mid-latitude cities-with the peak heat island intensity occurring in the morning than at night. The simulations are suggesting that the thermal phase shift of this tropical diurnal UHI is a response of the surface energy budget to the large amount of solar radiation, intense evapotranspiration, and thermal response of the vegetated surfaces over a very humid soil layer.

Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

The impact of high latitudes on the optical design of solar systems

Irradiation distribution functions based on the yearly collectible energy have been derived for two locations; Sydney, Australia which represents a mid-latitude site and Stockholm, Sweden, which represents a high latitude site. The strong skewing of collectible energy toward summer solstice at high latitudes dictates optimal collector tilt angles considerably below the polar mount. The lack of winter radiation at high latitudes indicates that the optimal acceptance angle for a stationary EW-aligned concentrator decreases as latitude increases. Furthermore concentrator design should be highly asymmetric at high latitudes.

Lightning activity in Brazilian thunderstorms during TROCCINOX: implications for NOx production

During the TROCCINOX field experiment in January and February 2005, the contribution of lightning-induced nitrogen oxides (LNOx) from tropical and subtropical thunderstorms in Southern Brazil was investigated. Airborne trace gas measurements (NO, NOy, CO and O-3) were performed up to 12.5 km with the German research aircraft Falcon. During anvil penetrations in selected tropical and subtropical thunderstorms of 4 and 18 February, NOx mixing ratios were on average enhanced by 0.7-1.2 and 0.2-0.8 nmol mol(-1) totally, respectively. The relative contributions of boundary layer NOx (BL-NOx) and LNOx to anvil-NOx were derived from the NOx-CO correlations. on average similar to 80-90% of the anvil-NOx was attributed to LNOx. A Lightning Location Network (LINET) was set up to monitor the local distribution of cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC) radiation sources (here called 'strokes') and compared with lightning data from the operational Brazilian network RINDAT (Rede Integrada Nacional de Deteccao de Descargas Atmosfericas). The horizontal LNOx mass flux out of the anvil was determined from the mean LNOx mixing ratio, the horizontal outflow velocity and the size of the vertical cross-section of the anvil, and related to the number of strokes contributing to LNOx. The values of these parameters were derived from the airborne measurements, from lightning and radar observations, and from a trajectory analysis. The amount of LNOx produced per LINET stroke depending on measured peak current was determined. The results were scaled up with the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) flash rate (44 flashes s(-1)) to obtain an estimate of the global LNOx production rate. The final results gave similar to 1 and similar to 2-3 kg(N) per LIS flash based on measurements in three tropical and one subtropical Brazilian thunderstorms, respectively, suggesting that tropical flashes may be less productive than subtropical ones. The equivalent mean annual global LNOx nitrogen mass production rate was estimated to be 1.6 and 3.1 Tg a(-1), respectively. By use of LINET observations in Germany in July 2005, a comparison with the lightning activity in mid-latitude thunderstorms was also performed. In general, the same frequency distribution of stroke peak currents as for tropical thunderstorms over Brazil was found. The different LNOx production rates per stroke in tropical thunderstorms compared with subtropical and mid-latitude thunderstorms seem to be related to the different stroke lengths (inferred from comparison with laboratory data and observed lengths). In comparison, the impact of other lightning parameters as stroke peak current and stroke release height was assessed to be minor. The results from TROCCINOX suggest that the different vertical wind shear may be responsible for the different stroke lengths.

Evaluation of two genera of benthic foraminifera for down-core paleotemperature studies in the western south atlantic

Neste estudo, compara-se a composição de isótopos de oxigênio de dois gêneros de foraminíferos bentônicos (Uvigerina e Cibicidoides) de amostras de topo de testemunho com a composição isotópica moderna da água do mar (d¹⁸O). Baseados em uma nova relação entre d¹⁸O e salinidade para a latitude média do Atlântico Sul ocidental, estimou-se a composição isotópica da calcita em equilíbrio (d¹⁸O_eq) a partir de duas equações diferentes: (1) O'Neil et al. (1969), modificada por McCorkle et al. (1997) e (2) Kim & O'Neil (1997). Utilizando (1), a pequena diferença entre d¹⁸O_eq e d¹⁸O de Uvigerina sugere que este gênero precipita as suas testas próximo ao equilíbrio com a água. Já os dados de d¹⁸O de Cibicidoides são 0,82 ‰ menores que a composição isotópica prevista. Ao contrário, utilizando (2) os dados de d¹⁸O de Cibicidoides mostram uma concordância excelente com a composição isotópica esperada, enquanto que os dados de d¹⁸O de Uvigerina são 0,69 ‰ maiores que os valores de equilíbrio previstos. A partir das evidências apresentadas neste trabalho e em estudos prévios sugerimos a utilização do gênero Cibicidoides e a aplicação da equação de Kim & O'Neil (1997) para pesquisas de paleotemperatura. Na ausência de suficientes espécimens de Cibicidoides sugerimos a utilização de d¹⁸O deUvigerina aplicando um fator de correção de -0,69 ‰.

Using phenology to assess urban heat islands in tropical and temperate regions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Can Indian Ocean SST anomalies influence South American rainfall?

In this study we examine the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability on South American circulation using observations and a suite of numerical experiments forced by a combination of Indian and Pacific SST anomalies. Previous studies have shown that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode can affect climate over remote regions across the globe, including over South America. Here we show that such a link exists not only with the IOD, but also with the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (IOBW). The IOBW, a response to El Nino events, tends to reinforce the South American anomalous circulation in March-to-May associated with the warm events in the Pacific. This leads to increased rainfall in the La Plata basin and decreased rainfall over the northern regions of the continent. In addition, the IOBW is suggested to be an important factor for modulating the persistence of dry conditions over northeastern South America during austral autumn. The link between the IOBW and South American climate occurs via alterations of the Walker circulation pattern and through a mid-latitude wave-train teleconnection.

Atmospheric radiative transfer in multiple scattering conditions. Application to NWP models.

High spectral resolution radiative transfer (RT) codes are essential tools in the study of the radiative energy transfer in the Earth atmosphere and a support for the development of parameterizations for fast RT codes used in climate and weather prediction models. Cirrus clouds cover permanently 30% of the Earth's surface, representing an important contribution to the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance. The work has been focussed on the development of the RT model LBLMS. The model, widely tested in the infra-red spectral range, has been extended to the short wave spectrum and it has been used in comparison with airborne and satellite measurements to study the optical properties of cirrus clouds. A new database of single scattering properties has been developed for mid latitude cirrus clouds. Ice clouds are treated as a mixture of ice crystals with various habits. The optical properties of the mixture are tested in comparison to radiometric measurements in selected case studies. Finally, a parameterization of the mixture for application to weather prediction and global circulation models has been developed. The bulk optical properties of ice crystals are parameterized as functions of the effective dimension of measured particle size distributions that are representative of mid latitude cirrus clouds. Tests with the Limited Area Weather Prediction model COSMO have shown the impact of the new parameterization with respect to cirrus cloud optical properties based on ice spheres.

Numerical simulations of microphysical processes in pyro-convective clouds

Hochreichende Konvektion über Waldbränden ist eine der intensivsten Formen von atmosphärischer Konvektion. Die extreme Wolkendynamik mit hohen vertikalen Windgeschwindigkeiten (bis 20 m/s) bereits an der Wolkenbasis, hohen Wasserdampfübersättigungen (bis 1%) und die durch das Feuer hohen Anzahlkonzentration von Aerosolpartikeln (bis 100000 cm^-3) bilden einen besonderen Rahmen für Aerosol-Wolken Wechselwirkungen.Ein entscheidender Schritt in der mikrophysikalischen Entwicklung einer konvektiven Wolke ist die Aktivierung von Aerosolpartikeln zu Wolkentropfen. Dieser Aktivierungsprozess bestimmt die anfängliche Anzahl und Größe der Wolkentropfen und kann daher die Entwicklung einer konvektiven Wolke und deren Niederschlagsbildung beeinflussen. Die wichtigsten Faktoren, welche die anfängliche Anzahl und Größe der Wolkentropfen bestimmen, sind die Größe und Hygroskopizität der an der Wolkenbasis verfügbaren Aerosolpartikel sowie die vertikale Windgeschwindigkeit. Um den Einfluss dieser Faktoren unter pyro-konvektiven Bedingungen zu untersuchen, wurden numerische Simulationen mit Hilfe eines Wolkenpaketmodells mit detaillierter spektraler Beschreibung der Wolkenmikrophysik durchgeführt. Diese Ergebnisse können in drei unterschiedliche Bereiche abhängig vom Verhältnis zwischen vertikaler Windgeschwindigkeit und Aerosolanzahlkonzentration (w/NCN) eingeteilt werden: (1) ein durch die Aerosolkonzentration limitierter Bereich (hohes w/NCN), (2) ein durch die vertikale Windgeschwindigkeit limitierter Bereich (niedriges w/NCN) und (3) ein Übergangsbereich (mittleres w/NCN). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Variabilität der anfänglichen Anzahlkonzentration der Wolkentropfen in (pyro-) konvektiven Wolken hauptsächlich durch die Variabilität der vertikalen Windgeschwindigkeit und der Aerosolkonzentration bestimmt wird. rnUm die mikrophysikalischen Prozesse innerhalb der rauchigen Aufwindregion einer pyrokonvektiven Wolke mit einer detaillierten spektralen Mikrophysik zu untersuchen, wurde das Paketmodel entlang einer Trajektorie innerhalb der Aufwindregion initialisiert. Diese Trajektore wurde durch dreidimensionale Simulationen eines pyro-konvektiven Ereignisses durch das Model ATHAM berechnet. Es zeigt sich, dass die Anzahlkonzentration der Wolkentropfen mit steigender Aerosolkonzentration ansteigt. Auf der anderen Seite verringert sich die Größe der Wolkentropfen mit steigender Aerosolkonzentration. Die Reduzierung der Verbreiterung des Tropfenspektrums stimmt mit den Ergebnissen aus Messungen überein und unterstützt das Konzept der Unterdrückung von Niederschlag in stark verschmutzen Wolken.Mit Hilfe des Models ATHAM wurden die dynamischen und mikrophysikalischen Prozesse von pyro-konvektiven Wolken, aufbauend auf einer realistischen Parametrisierung der Aktivierung von Aerosolpartikeln durch die Ergebnisse der Aktivierungsstudie, mit zwei- und dreidimensionalen Simulationen untersucht. Ein modernes zweimomenten mikrophysikalisches Schema wurde in ATHAM implementiert, um den Einfluss der Anzahlkonzentration von Aerosolpartikeln auf die Entwicklung von idealisierten pyro-konvektiven Wolken in US Standardamtosphären für die mittleren Breiten und den Tropen zu untersuchen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Anzahlkonzentration der Aerosolpartikel die Bildung von Regen beeinflusst. Für geringe Aerosolkonzentrationen findet die rasche Regenbildung hauptsächlich durch warme mikrophysikalische Prozesse statt. Für höhere Aerosolkonzentrationen ist die Eisphase wichtiger für die Bildung von Regen. Dies führt zu einem verspäteten Einsetzen von Niederschlag für verunreinigtere Atmosphären. Außerdem wird gezeigt, dass die Zusammensetzung der Eisnukleationspartikel (IN) einen starken Einfluss auf die dynamische und mikrophysikalische Struktur solcher Wolken hat. Bei sehr effizienten IN bildet sich Regen früher. Die Untersuchung zum Einfluss des atmosphärischen Hintergrundprofils zeigt eine geringe Auswirkung der Meteorologie auf die Sensitivität der pyro-konvektiven Wolken auf diernAerosolkonzentration. Zum Abschluss wird gezeigt, dass die durch das Feuer emittierte Hitze einen deutlichen Einfluss auf die Entwicklung und die Wolkenobergrenze von pyro-konvektive Wolken hat. Zusammenfassend kann gesagt werden, dass in dieser Dissertation die Mikrophysik von pyrokonvektiven Wolken mit Hilfe von idealisierten Simulation eines Wolkenpaketmodell mit detaillierte spektraler Mikrophysik und eines 3D Modells mit einem zweimomenten Schema im Detail untersucht wurde. Es wird gezeigt, dass die extremen Bedingungen im Bezug auf die vertikale Windgeschwindigkeiten und Aerosolkonzentrationen einen deutlichen Einfluss auf die Entwicklung von pyro-konvektiven Wolken haben.