Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?

Most studies examining the temperature–mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models.

Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics : time-series analyses

Few studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur there. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity, temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time-series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression [overall relative risk over the following 60 days for a 1-h increase in sunshine per day was 0·67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·51–0·87)] and case-crossover analysis [odds ratio for a 1-h increase in mean daily sunshine 8–14 days earlier was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91–1·00)]. This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed.

Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses

Background Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36–1.94) and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.14–1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95% CI: 1.40–2.11) to 1.81 (95% CI: 1.56–2.10) and from 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06–1.23) to 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21–1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.

Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : a time series study

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

Surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer : clinical features and outcomes for a consecutive series at an Irish tertiary referral centre

Background: Few patients diagnosed with lung cancer are still alive 5 years after diagnosis. The aim of the current study was to conduct a 10-year review of a consecutive series of patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection at the largest tertiary referral centre to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Case records of all patients operated on for lung cancer between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. The clinical features and outcomes of all patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stage I-IV were recorded. Results: A total of 654 patients underwent surgical resection with curative intent during the study period. Median overall survival for the entire cohort was 37 months. The median age at operation was 66 years, with males accounting for 62.7 %. Squamous cell type was the most common histological subtype, and lobectomies were performed in 76.5 % of surgical resections. Pneumonectomy rates decreased significantly in the latter half of the study (25 vs. 16.3 %), while sub-anatomical resection more than doubled (2 vs. 5 %) (p < 0.005). Clinico-pathological characteristics associated with improved survival by univariate analysis include younger age, female sex, smaller tumour size, smoking status, lobectomy, lower T and N status and less advanced pathological stage. Age, gender, smoking status and tumour size, as well as T and N descriptors have emerged as independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We identified several factors that predicted outcome for NSCLC patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection. Survival rates in our series are comparable to those reported from other thoracic surgery centres. © 2012 Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland.

Made by motion, Series one

“Made by Motion” is a collaboration between digital artist Paul Van Opdenbosch and performer and choreographer Elise May; a series of studies on captured motion data used to generating experimental visual forms that reverberate in space and time. The project investigates the invisible forces generated by and influencing the movement of a dancer. Along with how the forces can be captured and applied to generating visual outcomes that surpass simple data visualisation, projecting the intent of the performer’s movements. The source or ‘seed’ comes from using an Xsens MVN - Inertial Motion Capture system to capture spontaneous dance movements, with the visual generation conducted through a customised dynamics simulation. In this first series the visual investigation focused on manipulating the movement date at the instance of capture, capture been the recording of three-dimensional movement as ‘seen’ by the hardware and ‘understood’ through the calibration of software. By repositioning the capture hardware on the body we can effectively change how the same sequence of movements is ‘seen’ by the motion capture system thus generating a different visual result from effetely identical movement. The outcomes from the experiments clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of using motion capture hardware as a creative tool to manipulate the perception of the capture subject, in this case been a sequence of dance movements. The creative work exhibited is a cross-section of the experiments conducted in practice with the first animated work (Movement A - Control) using the motion capture hardware in its default ‘normal’ configuration. Following this is the lower body moved to the upper body (Lb-Ub), right arm moved onto the left arm (Ra-La), right leg moved onto the left leg (Rl-Ll) and finally the left leg moved onto a object that is then held in the left hand (Ll-Pf (Lh)).

Targeting histone deacetylases for the treatment of disease : Epigenetics Review Series

The 'histone code' is a well-established hypothesis describing the idea that specific patterns of post-translational modifications to histones act like a molecular 'code' recognized and used by non-histone proteins to regulate specific chromatin functions. One modification, which has received significant attention, is that of histone acetylation. The enzymes that regulate this modification are described as lysine acetyltransferases or KATs, and histone deacetylases or HDACs. Due to their conserved catalytic domain HDACs have been actively targeted as a therapeutic target. The pro-inflammatory environment is increasingly being recognized as a critical element for both degenerative diseases and cancer. The present review will discuss the current knowledge surrounding the clinical potential and current development of histone deacetylases for the treatment of diseases for which a pro-inflammatory environment plays important roles, and the molecular mechanisms by which such inhibitors may play important functions in modulating the pro-inflammatory environment. © 2009 Foundation for Cellular and Molecular Medicine/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A single institution experience of streptozocin/fluorouracil combination chemotherapy : a case series

Background The combination chemotherapy regimen of streptozocin and 5-fluorouracil (FU/STZ) has been used for the treatment of metastatic neuroendocrine tumours. Aim The aim of this study was to analyse the use of this regimen in a tertiary oncology referral centre over a 10-year period. Method We retrospectively analysed nine cases from February 2000 to May 2010. Patient demographics, chemotherapy schedule, toxicities, progression-free and overall survival were tabulated for each patient. Result The median progression-free survival was 17 months (range 3-48+ months), and overall survival 31 months (range 12-53+ months) with no toxicity related deaths. Conclusion FU/STZ was a well-tolerated regimen that produced significant benefit in the setting of metastatic and progressive disease. Our case series demonstrated comparable progression-free survival and overall survival in relation to randomized controlled studies and previous case series. © Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland 2011.

A suite of novel promoters and terminators for plant biotechnology II. The pPLEX series for use in monocots

A suite of plant expression vectors (pPLEX), constructed from the gene regulation signals from subterranean clover stunt virus (SCSV) genome, has previously been used in dicot transformation for a variety of applications in plant biotechnology. To assess their use for the transformation of monocots, a number of modifications were made to the basic vector series and assessed in rice. In their unmodified forms, the SCSV promoters directed low levels of gene expression, however, insertion of an intron between the promoter and the transgene open reading frame (analogous to the rice actin and maize ubiquitin promoter systems) increased transgene expression 50-fold. The expression patterns from the intron-modified SCSV (segments 4 and 7) promoters were very similar to those directed by the actin or ubiquitin promoters. All promoter systems investigated directed expression that appeared to be constitutive within leaf tissue, and localised to the epidermal and vascular tissues of the root. The pPLEX vectors described here are an important counterpart to the dicot pPLEX series and have the potential to be useful in monocot research and biotechnology.

WATER - a series of photographs by Louise Grayson

This body of photographic work has been created to firstly, explore a new approach to practice-led research that uses an “action genre” approach to reflective practice (Lemke) and secondly, to visually explore human interaction with the fundamental item in life - water. The first of these is based on the contention that to understand the meanings inherent in photographs we cannot look merely at the end result. It is essential to keep looking at the actions of practitioners, and the influences upon them, to determine how external influences affect the meaning potential of editorial photographs (Grayson, 2012). WATER therefore, provides an ideal platform to reflect upon the actions and influences involved in creating work within the photographic genre of photojournalism. It enables this practitioner to reflect on each stage of production to gain a better understanding of how external influences impact the narrative potential within images created. There are multi-faceted influences experienced by photographers who are creating images that, in turn, are part of constructing and presenting the narrative potential of editorial photographs. There is an important relationship between professional photographers and the technical, cultural, economic and institutional forces that impinge upon all stages of production and publication. What results is a greater understanding of technical, cultural, economic and institutional forces that impinge upon all stages of production and publication. Therefore, to understand the meanings inherent in photographs within WATER, I do not look merely at the end result. It provides a case study looking at my actions in the filed, and the influences upon me, to determine how external influences affect the meaning potential of these photographs (Grayson, 2012). As a result, this project adds to the body of scholarship around the definition of Photojournalism, how it has adapted to the current media environment and provides scope for further research into emerging new genres within editorial photography, such as citizen photojournalism. Concurrently, the photographs themselves were created to visually explore how there remains a humanistic desire to interact with the natural form of water even while living a modern cosmopolitan life around it. Taking a photojournalistic approach to exploring this phenomenon, the images were created by “capturing moments as they happened” with no posing or setting up of images. This serendipitous approach to the photographic medium provides the practitioner with at least an attempt to direct the subjectivity contained explicitly in photographs. What results is a series of images that extend the visual dialogue around the role of water within modern humanistic lifestyles and how it remains an integral part of our society’s behaviors. It captures important moments that document this relationship at this time of modern development. The resulting works were exhibited and published as part of the Head On Photo Festival, Australia's largest photo festival and the world's second largest festival in Sydney 20-24 May 2013. The WATER series of images were curated by three Magnum members; Ian Berry, Eli Reed and Chris Steele-Perkins. Magnum is a highly regarded international photographic co-operative with editorial offices in New York, London, Paris and Tokyo. There was a projection of the works as part of the official festival programme, presented to both members of the public and Sydney’s photography professionals. In addition, a sample of images from the WATER series was chosen for inclusion in the Magnum-published hardcover book. References Grayson, Louise. 2012. “Editorial photographs and patterns of practice.” Journalism Practice. Accessed: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17512786.2012.726836#.UbZN-L--1RQ Lemke, Jay. 1995. Textual Politics: Discourse and Social Dynamics. London: Taylor & Francis.

Impact of cognitive behaviour therapy via mail for cessation of benzodiazepine use : a series of case reports

Benzodiazepines are widely prescribed to manage sleep disorders, anxiety and muscular tension. While providing short-term relief, continued use induces tolerance and withdrawal, and in older users, increases the risk of falls. However, long-term prescription remains common, and effective interventions are not widely available. This study developed a self-managed cognitive behaviour therapy package for cessation of benzodiazepine use delivered to participants via mail (M-CBT) and trialled its effectiveness as an adjunct to a general practitioner (GP)-managed dose reduction schedule. In the pilot trial, participants were randomly assigned to GP management with immediate or delayed M-CBT. Significant recruitment and engagement problems were experienced, and only three participants were allocated to each condition. After immediate M-CBT, two participants ceased use, while none receiving delayed treatment reduced daily intake by more than 50%. Across the sample, doses at 12 months remained significantly lower than baseline, and qualitative feedback from participants was positive. While M-CBT may have promise, improved engagement of GPs and participants is needed for this approach to substantially impact on community-wide benzodiazepine use.

Practical Advice to Entrepreneurs Series by ACE Adjunct Professor Dean Shepherd: Practical advice on whether to act entrepreneurially

The author, Dean Shepherd, is interested in the psychology of entrepreneurship — how entrepreneurs think, decide to act, and feel. He recently realized that while his publications in academic journals have implications for entrepreneurs, those implications have remained relatively hidden in the text of the articles and hidden in articles published in journals largely inaccessible to those involved in the entrepreneurial process. This series is designed to bring the practical implications of his research to the forefront.

Practical Advice to Entrepreneurs Series by ACE Adjunct Professor Dean Shepherd: Practical advice for thinking about entrepreneurial decisions

The author, Dean Shepherd, is of entrepreneurship—how entrepreneurs think, decide to act, and feel. He recently realized that while his publications in academic journals have implications for entrepreneurs, those implications have remained relatively hidden in the text of the articles and hidden in articles published in journals largely inaccessible to those involved in the entrepreneurial process. This series is designed to bring the practical implications of his research to the forefront.

Practical Advice to Entrepreneurs Series by ACE Adjunct Professor Dean Shepherd: Practical advice on engaging values to avoid causing harm

The author, Dean Shepherd, is of entrepreneurship—how entrepreneurs think, decide to act, and feel. He recently realized that while his publications in academic journals have implications for entrepreneurs, those implications have remained relatively hidden in the text of the articles and hidden in articles published in journals largely inaccessible to those involved in the entrepreneurial process. This series is designed to bring the practical implications of his research to the forefront.