Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening: Things you need to know (English and translations)

This information leaflet is for all men invited to take part in the Northern Ireland Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) Screening Programme. Men will automatically be invited for screening in their 65th year, while men aged over 65 can request a scan through the central screening office.

Lifelong dynamics of human CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells: insights from in vivo data and mathematical modeling.

Despite their limited proliferation capacity, regulatory T cells (T(regs)) constitute a population maintained over the entire lifetime of a human organism. The means by which T(regs) sustain a stable pool in vivo are controversial. Using a mathematical model, we address this issue by evaluating several biological scenarios of the origins and the proliferation capacity of two subsets of T(regs): precursor CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(-) and mature CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(+) cells. The lifelong dynamics of T(regs) are described by a set of ordinary differential equations, driven by a stochastic process representing the major immune reactions involving these cells. The model dynamics are validated using data from human donors of different ages. Analysis of the data led to the identification of two properties of the dynamics: (1) the equilibrium in the CD4(+)CD25(+)FoxP3(+)T(regs) population is maintained over both precursor and mature T(regs) pools together, and (2) the ratio between precursor and mature T(regs) is inverted in the early years of adulthood. Then, using the model, we identified three biologically relevant scenarios that have the above properties: (1) the unique source of mature T(regs) is the antigen-driven differentiation of precursors that acquire the mature profile in the periphery and the proliferation of T(regs) is essential for the development and the maintenance of the pool; there exist other sources of mature T(regs), such as (2) a homeostatic density-dependent regulation or (3) thymus- or effector-derived T(regs), and in both cases, antigen-induced proliferation is not necessary for the development of a stable pool of T(regs). This is the first time that a mathematical model built to describe the in vivo dynamics of regulatory T cells is validated using human data. The application of this model provides an invaluable tool in estimating the amount of regulatory T cells as a function of time in the blood of patients that received a solid organ transplant or are suffering from an autoimmune disease.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of the interaction of populations of bacteria and bacteriophages within chicken intestine

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AIDS defining opportunistic infections in patients with high CD4 counts in the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) era: things ain't what they used to be.

INTRODUCTION: According to reports from observational databases, classic AIDS-defining opportunistic infections (ADOIs) occur in patients with CD4 counts above 500/µL on and off cART. Adjudication of these events is usually not performed. However, ADOIs are often used as endpoints, for example, in analyses on when to start cART. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the database, Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) database, we identified 91 cases of ADOIs that occurred from 1996 onwards in patients with the nearest CD4 count >500/µL. Cases of tuberculosis and recurrent bacterial pneumonia were excluded as they also occur in non-immunocompromised patients. Chart review was performed in 82 cases, and in 50 cases we identified CD4 counts within six months before until one month after ADOI and had chart review material to allow an in-depth review. In these 50 cases, we assessed whether (1) the ADOI fulfilled the SHCS diagnostic criteria (www.shcs.ch), and (2) HIV infection with CD4 >500/µL was the main immune-compromising condition to cause the ADOI. Adjudication of cases was done by two experienced clinicians who had to agree on the interpretation. RESULTS: More than 13,000 participants were followed in SHCS in the period of interest. Twenty-four (48%) of the chart-reviewed 50 patients with ADOI and CD4 >500/µL had an HIV RNA <400 copies/mL at the time of ADOI. In the 50 cases, candida oesophagitis was the most frequent ADOI in 30 patients (60%) followed by pneumocystis pneumonia and chronic ulcerative HSV disease (Table 1). Overall chronic HIV infection with a CD4 count >500/µL was the likely explanation for the ADOI in only seven cases (14%). Other reasons (Table 1) were ADOIs occurring during primary HIV infection in 5 (10%) cases, unmasking IRIS in 1 (2%) case, chronic HIV infection with CD4 counts <500/µL near the ADOI in 13 (26%) cases, diagnosis not according to SHCS diagnostic criteria in 7 (14%) cases and most importantly other additional immune-compromising conditions such as immunosuppressive drugs in 14 (34%). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with CD4 counts >500/ µL, chronic HIV infection is the cause of ADOIs in only a minority of cases. Other immuno-compromising conditions are more likely explanations in one-third of the patients, especially in cases of candida oesophagitis. ADOIs in HIV patients with high CD4 counts should be used as endpoints only with much caution in studies based on observational databases.

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part II. Development and testing of mathematical algorithms for the automatic comparison of ink samples analysed by HPTLC

In the first part of this research, three stages were stated for a program to increase the information extracted from ink evidence and maximise its usefulness to the criminal and civil justice system. These stages are (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples by high-performance thin layer chromatography (HPTLC) in reproducible way, when ink samples are analysed at different time, locations and by different examiners; (b) compare automatically and objectively ink samples; and (c) define and evaluate theoretical framework for the use of ink evidence in forensic context. This report focuses on the second of the three stages. Using the calibration and acquisition process described in the previous report, mathematical algorithms are proposed to automatically and objectively compare ink samples. The performances of these algorithms are systematically studied for various chemical and forensic conditions using standard performance tests commonly used in biometrics studies. The results show that different algorithms are best suited for different tasks. Finally, this report demonstrates how modern analytical and computer technology can be used in the field of ink examination and how tools developed and successfully applied in other fields of forensic science can help maximising its impact within the field of questioned documents.

Divorce: Things to Consider

A brief informational publication on what to consider if you are going to get a divorce.

Divorce: Things to Consider, 2002

Document for Commission on the Status of Women.

The influence of learning on evolution: a mathematical framework.

The Baldwin effect can be observed if phenotypic learning influences the evolutionary fitness of individuals, which can in turn accelerate or decelerate evolutionary change. Evidence for both learning-induced acceleration and deceleration can be found in the literature. Although the results for both outcomes were supported by specific mathematical or simulation models, no general predictions have been achieved so far. Here we propose a general framework to predict whether evolution benefits from learning or not. It is formulated in terms of the gain function, which quantifies the proportional change of fitness due to learning depending on the genotype value. With an inductive proof we show that a positive gain-function derivative implies that learning accelerates evolution, and a negative one implies deceleration under the condition that the population is distributed on a monotonic part of the fitness landscape. We show that the gain-function framework explains the results of several specific simulation models. We also use the gain-function framework to shed some light on the results of a recent biological experiment with fruit flies.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

A mathematical excursion: From the three-door problem to a Cantor-type perfect set

We start with a generalization of the well-known three-door problem:the n-door problem. The solution of this new problem leads us toa beautiful representation system for real numbers in (0,1] as alternated series, known in the literature as Pierce expansions. A closer look to Pierce expansions will take us to some metrical properties of sets defined through the Pierce expansions of its elements. Finally, these metrical properties will enable us to present 'strange' sets, similar to the classical Cantor set.

Divorce: Things to Consider, 2007

Document for Commission on the Status of Women.

The daily market for funds in Europe: Mathematical appendix

This paper includes the derivations of the main expressions in the paper ``The Daily Market for Funds in Europe: Has Something Changed With the EMU?'' by G. Pérez Quirós and H. Rodríguez Mendizábal.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.