946 resultados para Mark-recapture Analysis


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Outbreaks of fibropapillomatosis (FP), a neoplastic infectious disease of marine turtles, have occurred worldwide since the 1980s. Its most likely aetiological agent is a virus, but disease expression depends on external factors, typically associated with altered environments. The scarcity of robust long-term data on disease prevalence has limited interpretations on the impacts of FP on turtle populations. Here we model the dynamics of FP at 2 green turtle foraging aggregations in Puerto Rico, through 18 yr of capture-mark-recapture data (1997−2014). We observed spatiotemporal variation in FP prevalence, potentially modulated via individual site-fidelity. FP ex pression was residency dependent, and FP-free individuals developed tumours after 1.8 ± 0.8 yr (mean ± SD) in the infected area. Recovery from the disease was likely, with complete tumour regression occurring in 2.7 ± 0.7 yr (mean ± SD). FP does not currently seem to be a major threat to marine turtle populations; however, disease prevalence is yet unknown in many areas. Systematic monitoring is highly advisable as human-induced stressors can lead to deviations in host− pathogen relationships and disease virulence. Finally, data collection should be standardized for a global assessment of FP dynamics and impacts.

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Thesis (Master, Biology) -- Queen's University, 2016-09-28 15:06:46.124

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Diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) are native to the remote oceanic islands of Bermuda and presently inhabit only four small brackish water ponds on a private golf course. The life history of this species is poorly understood on Bermuda and so the aim of this study was to fill these knowledge gaps, to compare the results with what is known from other areas in the North American range, and to inform the development of a local management plan. The results of a mark-recapture census revealed that ca. 100 individuals ≥81 mm straight carapace length live on Bermuda, of which nearly half (48.5%) were considered sexually mature. The population is dominated by females (sex ratio 2.9:1) and annual recruitment over the three year period was found to be extremely low (approximately two terrapins). Female diamondback terrapins in Bermuda nest almost exclusively within a limited number of sand bunkers on the golf course. Nesting commenced in late March or early April and ended in late August. Peak oviposition was observed in May and June. Clutch size averaged 5.1 eggs (range 0-10; SD 2.4) and the incubation period averaged 61.8 days (range 49-83; SD 10.5). Delayed emergence was documented, with 43.8% of the hatchlings remaining in their natal nests over the winter months. The mean annual hatching success rate was determined to be 19% (range 17.6-21; SD 1.9). Radio-telemetry was used to investigate the movements and survivorship of postemergent hatchling diamondback terrapins. The results indicated that mangrove swamps and grass-dominated marshes adjacent to the ponds are important developmental habitats for hatchlings. Yellow-crowned night herons (Nyctanassa violacea) were found to be significant predators of small terrapins during spring emergence. Small aquatic gastropods comprised 66.7% of the faecal samples analysed from the Bermudian population. Scavenged fish and vertebrate animal remains, terrestrial arthropods, polychaete worms and bivalves were consumed in lesser amounts. Sediment from the pond environment was found in 74% of the faecal samples analysed and is believed to have been incidentally ingested while foraging for the small benthic gastropods. Eco-toxicological analyses of the pond sediment, prey and terrapin eggs showed that the Bermudian diamondback terrapins live and feed in wetland habitats characterised by chronic, multifactorial contamination; principally total petroleum hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and a variety of heavy metals. This study found that some of those contaminants are accumulating in the gastropod prey as well as being transferred to terrapin eggs. This may be reducing the incidence of successful embryonic development for this species in Bermuda and may likely contribute to the observed low hatching rates. These collective findings indicate that the Bermudian population is very vulnerable to local extirpation.

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Mark-recapture tagging and acoustic telemetry were used to study the movements of Diplodus sargus within the Pessegueiro Island no-take Marine Protected Area (MPA), (Portugal) and assess its size adequacy for this species' protection against fishing activities. Therefore, 894 Diplodus sargus were captured and marked with conventional plastic t-bar tags. At the same time, 19 D. sargus were tagged with acoustic transmitters and monitored by 20 automatic acoustic receivers inside the no-take MPA for 60 days. Recapture rate of conventionally tagged specimens was 3.47%, most occurring during subsequent marking campaigns. One individual however was recaptured by recreational fishermen near Faro (ca. 250 km from the tagging location) 6 months after release. Furthermore, three specimens were recaptured in October 2013 near releasing site, one year after being tagged. Regarding acoustic telemetry, 18 specimens were detected by the receivers during most of the study period. To analyse no-take MPA use, the study site was divided into five areas reflecting habitat characteristics, three of which were frequently used by the tagged fish: Exterior, Interior Protected and Interior Exposed areas. Information on no-take protected area use was also analysed according to diel and tidal patterns. Preferred passageways and permanence areas were identified and high site fidelity was confirmed. The interaction between tide and time of day influenced space use patterns, with higher and more variable movements during daytime and neap tides. This no-take MPA proved to be an important refuge and feeding area for this species, encompassing most of the home ranges of tagged specimens. Therefore, it is likely that this no-take MPA is of adequate size to protect D. sargus against fishing activities, thus contributing to its sustainable management in the region.

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This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

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Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.

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Heterotermes tenuis is an important economic pest in São Paulo state. Foraging populations of three field colonies of H. tenuis located on a University campus (UNESP, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil) were characterized. Foraging populations of H. tenuis colonies were calculated using four cycles of a mark-release-recapture program with a weighted mean method. The foraging population sizes of three colonies: A, B and C were 389,313±14,907; 265,589 ±12,635; and 641,600∓12,127; respectively. Foraging biomasses were 0.77 kg in the colony A, 0.51 kg in the colony B and 1.17 kg in colony C. Mean worker biomass was approximately 1.9 mg. Foraging territories occupied an area ranging from 70 m2 to 131 m2 per colony. The maximum linear foraging distance traveled by H. tenuis was 28m.

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Cytogenetic analysis of Astylus antis using mitotic and meiotic cells was performed to characterize the haploid and diploid numbers, sex determination system, chromosome morphology, constitutive heterochromatin distribution pattern and chromosomes carrying nucleolus organizer regions (NORs). Analysis of spermatogonial metaphase cells revealed the diploid number 2n = 18, with mostly metacentric chromosomes. Metaphase I cells exhibited 2n = 8II+Xyp and a parachute configuration of the sex chromosomes. Spermatogonial metaphase cells submitted to C-banding showed the presence of small dots of constitutive heterochromatin in the centromeric regions of nearly all the autosomes and on the short arm of the X chromosome (Xp), as well as an additional band on one of the arms of pair 1. Mitotic cells submitted to double staining with base-specific fluorochromes (DAPI-CMA3) revealed no regions rich in A+T or G+C sequences. Analysis of spermatogonial mitotic cells after sequential Giemsa/AgNO3 staining did not reveal any specific mark on the chromosomes. Meiotic metaphase I cells stained with silver nitrate revealed a strong impregnation associated to the sex chromosomes, and in situ hybridization with an 18S rDNA probe showed ribosomal cistrons in an autosomal bivalent.

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This paper presents a, simple two dimensional frame formulation to deal with structures undergoing large motions due to dynamic actions including very thin inflatable structures, balloons. The proposed methodology is based on the minimum potential energy theorem written regarding nodal positions. Velocity, acceleration and strain are achieved directly from positions, not. displacements, characterizing the novelty of the proposed technique. A non-dimensional space is created and the deformation function (change of configuration) is written following two independent mappings from which the strain energy function is written. The classical New-mark equations are used to integrate time. Dumping and non-conservative forces are introduced into the mechanical system by a rheonomic energy function. The final formulation has the advantage of being simple and easy to teach, when compared to classical Counterparts. The behavior of a bench-mark problem (spin-up maneuver) is solved to prove the formulation regarding high circumferential speed applications. Other examples are dedicated to inflatable and very thin structures, in order to test the formulation for further analysis of three dimensional balloons.

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Background: Recent reviews have indicated that low level level laser therapy (LLLT) is ineffective in lateral elbow tendinopathy (LET) without assessing validity of treatment procedures and doses or the influence of prior steroid injections. Methods: Systematic review with meta-analysis, with primary outcome measures of pain relief and/or global improvement and subgroup analyses of methodological quality, wavelengths and treatment procedures. Results: 18 randomised placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) were identified with 13 RCTs (730 patients) meeting the criteria for meta-analysis. 12 RCTs satisfied half or more of the methodological criteria. Publication bias was detected by Egger's graphical test, which showed a negative direction of bias. Ten of the trials included patients with poor prognosis caused by failed steroid injections or other treatment failures, or long symptom duration or severe baseline pain. The weighted mean difference (WMD) for pain relief was 10.2 mm [95% CI: 3.0 to 17.5] and the RR for global improvement was 1.36 [1.16 to 1.60]. Trials which targeted acupuncture points reported negative results, as did trials with wavelengths 820, 830 and 1064 nm. In a subgroup of five trials with 904 nm lasers and one trial with 632 nm wavelength where the lateral elbow tendon insertions were directly irradiated, WMD for pain relief was 17.2 mm [95% CI: 8.5 to 25.9] and 14.0 mm [95% CI: 7.4 to 20.6] respectively, while RR for global pain improvement was only reported for 904 nm at 1.53 [95% CI: 1.28 to 1.83]. LLLT doses in this subgroup ranged between 0.5 and 7.2 Joules. Secondary outcome measures of painfree grip strength, pain pressure threshold, sick leave and follow-up data from 3 to 8 weeks after the end of treatment, showed consistently significant results in favour of the same LLLT subgroup (p < 0.02). No serious side-effects were reported. Conclusion: LLLT administered with optimal doses of 904 nm and possibly 632 nm wavelengths directly to the lateral elbow tendon insertions, seem to offer short-term pain relief and less disability in LET, both alone and in conjunction with an exercise regimen. This finding contradicts the conclusions of previous reviews which failed to assess treatment procedures, wavelengths and optimal doses.

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The flowpaths by which water moves from watersheds to streams has important consequences for the runoff dynamics and biogeochemistry of surface waters in the Amazon Basin. The clearing of Amazon forest to cattle pasture has the potential to change runoff sources to streams by shifting runoff to more surficial flow pathways. We applied end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) to 10 small watersheds throughout the Amazon in which solute composition of streamwater and groundwater, overland flow, soil solution, throughfall and rainwater were measured, largely as part of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia. We found a range in the extent to which streamwater samples fell within the mixing space determined by potential flowpath end-members, suggesting that some water sources to streams were not sampled. The contribution of overland flow as a source of stream flow was greater in pasture watersheds than in forest watersheds of comparable size. Increases in overland flow contribution to pasture streams ranged in some cases from 0% in forest to 27-28% in pasture and were broadly consistent with results from hydrometric sampling of Amazon forest and pasture watersheds that indicate 17- to 18-fold increase in the overland flow contribution to stream flow in pastures. In forest, overland flow was an important contribution to stream flow (45-57%) in ephemeral streams where flows were dominated by stormflow. Overland flow contribution to stream flow decreased in importance with increasing watershed area, from 21 to 57% in forest and 60-89% in pasture watersheds of less than 10 ha to 0% in forest and 27-28% in pastures in watersheds greater than 100 ha. Soil solution contributions to stream flow were similar across watershed area and groundwater inputs generally increased in proportion to decreases in overland flow. Application of EMMA across multiple watersheds indicated patterns across gradients of stream size and land cover that were consistent with patterns determined by detailed hydrometric sampling.