The Effects of Multifactorial Fall Prevention on the Psychological Risk Factors of Falling

Psychological factors, such as depression or depressive symptoms and fear of falling are linked to falls among the aged. According to previous studies, they may increase the risk of falls and injurious falls. In addition, depression or a high amount of depressive symptoms and fear of falling may hinder participation in preventive activities. Despite the severe consequences of both conditions and their high prevalence among the aged, they have rarely been studied in the context of fall prevention. The study aimed to assess the effects of multifactorial fall prevention on the psychological risk factors of falling (depressive symptoms and fear of falling) among the community-dwelling aged at increased risk of falling. In addition, it aimed to determine factors predicting high adherence to preventive activities. Volunteers aged 65 or over, who had fallen during the year previous to randomisation were recruited. Participants (n=591) were randomised into an intervention or a control group. The intervention group received a multifactorial fall prevention programme including geriatric assessment, individual guidance on fall and fracture prevention, group- and home-based physical exercise, psychosocial group activities, lectures and home hazards assessment. The control group had a one-time counselling on fall and fracture prevention. The data on psychological risk factors of falling were collected by self-rated questionnaires. Multifactorial fall prevention was not effective in reducing depressive symptoms or fear of falling compared to one-time counselling in the total sample. However, in subgroup analyses, depressive symptoms reduced statistically significantly more among the men and older participants of the intervention group compared to the control group. Female gender, high physical and cognitive abilities and low self-perceived probability of falling were independent predictors of higher adherence in organised activities. In conclusion, few psychological benefits were gained during this multifactorial fall prevention trial. More attention should be focused on adherence, especially among the aged with functional disabilities.

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Associations between Body Mass Index and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Adolescents in a Country of the African Region.

We assessed the association between several cardiometabolic risk factors (CRFs) (blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, uric acid, and glucose) in 390 young adults aged 19-20 years in Seychelles (Indian Ocean, Africa) and body mass index (BMI) measured either at the same time (cross-sectional analysis) or at the age of 12-15 years (longitudinal analysis). BMI tracked markedly between age of 12-15 and age of 19-20. BMI was strongly associated with all considered CRFs in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, with some exceptions. Comparing overweight participants with those having a BMI below the age-specific median, the odds ratios for high blood pressure were 5.4/4.7 (male/female) cross-sectionally and 2.5/3.9 longitudinally (P < 0.05). Significant associations were also found for most other CRFs, with some exceptions. In linear regression analysis including both BMI at age of 12-15 and BMI at age of 19-20, only BMI at age of 19-20 remained significantly associated with most CRFs. We conclude that CRFs are predicted strongly by either current or past BMI levels in adolescents and young adults in this population. The observation that only current BMI remained associated with CRFs when including past and current levels together suggests that weight control at a later age may be effective in reducing CRFs in overweight children irrespective of past weight status.

Pulmonary embolism severity index and troponin testing for the selection of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

Summary Background: The combination of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and troponin testing could help physicians identify appropriate patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) for early hospital discharge. Methods: This prospective cohort study included a total of 567 patients from a single center registry with objectively confirmed acute symptomatic PE. On the basis of the PESI, each patient was classified into 1 of 5 classes (I to V). At the time of hospital admission, patients had troponin I (cTnI) levels measured. The endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality within 30 days after diagnosis. We calculated the mortality rates in 4 patient groups: group 1: PESI class I-II plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 2: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 3: PESI classes I-II plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1); and group 4: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1). Results: The study cohort had a 30-day mortality of 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.6 to 12.5%). Mortality rates in the 4 groups were 1.3%, 14.2%, 0% and 15.4%, respectively. Compared to non-elevated cTnl, the low-risk PESI had a higher negative predictive value (NPV) (98.9% vs 90.8%) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) (0.1 vs 0.9) for predicting mortality. The addition of non-elevated cTnI to low-risk PESI did not improve the NPV or the NLR compared to either test alone. Conclusions: Compared to cTnl testing, PESI classification more accurately identified patients with PE who are at low risk of all-cause death within 30-days of presentation.

A genetic risk score combining 32 SNPs is associated with body mass index and improves obesity prediction in people with major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is strongly associated with major depressive disorder (MDD) and various other diseases. Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple risk loci robustly associated with body mass index (BMI). In this study, we aimed to investigate whether a genetic risk score (GRS) combining multiple BMI risk loci might have utility in prediction of obesity in patients with MDD. METHODS: Linear and logistic regression models were conducted to predict BMI and obesity, respectively, in three independent large case-control studies of major depression (Radiant, GSK-Munich, PsyCoLaus). The analyses were first performed in the whole sample and then separately in depressed cases and controls. An unweighted GRS was calculated by summation of the number of risk alleles. A weighted GRS was calculated as the sum of risk alleles at each locus multiplied by their effect sizes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to compare the discriminatory ability of predictors of obesity. RESULTS: In the discovery phase, a total of 2,521 participants (1,895 depressed patients and 626 controls) were included from the Radiant study. Both unweighted and weighted GRS were highly associated with BMI (P <0.001) but explained only a modest amount of variance. Adding 'traditional' risk factors to GRS significantly improved the predictive ability with the area under the curve (AUC) in the ROC analysis, increasing from 0.58 to 0.66 (95% CI, 0.62-0.68; χ(2) = 27.68; P <0.0001). Although there was no formal evidence of interaction between depression status and GRS, there was further improvement in AUC in the ROC analysis when depression status was added to the model (AUC = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.68-0.73; χ(2) = 28.64; P <0.0001). We further found that the GRS accounted for more variance of BMI in depressed patients than in healthy controls. Again, GRS discriminated obesity better in depressed patients compared to healthy controls. We later replicated these analyses in two independent samples (GSK-Munich and PsyCoLaus) and found similar results. CONCLUSIONS: A GRS proved to be a highly significant predictor of obesity in people with MDD but accounted for only modest amount of variance. Nevertheless, as more risk loci are identified, combining a GRS approach with information on non-genetic risk factors could become a useful strategy in identifying MDD patients at higher risk of developing obesity.

Market Index Biases and Minimum Risk Indices

Markets, in the real world, are not efficient zero-sum games where hypotheses of the CAPM are fulfilled. Then, it is easy to conclude the market portfolio is not located on Markowitz"s efficient frontier, and passive investments (and indexing) are not optimal but biased. In this paper, we define and analyze biases suffered by passive investors: the sample, construction, efficiency and active biases and tracking error are presented. We propose Minimum Risk Indices (MRI) as an alternative to deal with to market index biases, and to provide investors with portfolios closer to the efficient frontier, that is, more optimal investment possibilities. MRI (using a Parametric Value-at-Risk Minimization approach) are calculated for three stock markets achieving interesting results. Our indices are less risky and more profitable than current Market Indices in the Argentinean and Spanish markets, facing that way the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Two innovations must be outlined: an error dimension has been included in the backtesting and the Sharpe"s Ratio has been used to select the"best" MRI

Modelling body mass index and endometrial cancer risk in a pooled-analysis of three case-control studies.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the relation between body mass index (BMI) and endometrial cancer risk, and to describe the shape of such a relation. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of three hospital-based case-control studies. SETTING: Italy and Switzerland. POPULATION: A total of 1449 women with endometrial cancer and 3811 controls. METHODS: Multivariate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained from logistic regression models. The shape of the relation was determined using a class of flexible regression models. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The relation of BMI with endometrial cancer. RESULTS: Compared with women with BMI 18.5 to <25 kg/m(2) , the odds ratio was 5.73 (95% CI 4.28-7.68) for women with a BMI ≥35 kg/m(2) . The odds ratios were 1.10 (95% CI 1.09-1.12) and 1.63 (95% CI 1.52-1.75) respectively for an increment of BMI of 1 and 5 units. The relation was stronger in never-users of oral contraceptives (OR 3.35, 95% CI 2.78-4.03, for BMI ≥30 versus <25 kg/m(2) ) than in users (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.56-2.67), and in women with diabetes (OR 8.10, 95% CI 4.10-16.01, for BMI ≥30 versus <25 kg/m(2) ) than in those without diabetes (OR 2.95, 95% CI 2.44-3.56). The relation was best fitted by a cubic model, although after the exclusion of the 5% upper and lower tails, it was best fitted by a linear model. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study confirm a role of elevated BMI in the aetiology of endometrial cancer and suggest that the risk in obese women increases in a cubic nonlinear fashion. The relation was stronger in never-users of oral contraceptives and in women with diabetes. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Risk of endometrial cancer increases with elevated body weight in a cubic nonlinear fashion.

Ankle-brachial index, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and endothelial function in a cardiovascular risk population

Atherosclerotic vascular disease is the leading cause of death in the Western world. Its main three manifestations are coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral arterial disease. Asymptomatic peripheral arterial disease is usually diagnosed using the ankle brachial index, and values ≤ 0.90 are used to determine the diagnosis. The classical risk factors of peripheral arterial disease, such as smoking and diabetes, are well known and early interventions are mandatory to improve the prognosis. What is not well known is the role of inflammation as a risk factor. Yet, a novel approach to cardiovascular diseases is the measurement of endothelial function. In this thesis, we studied the ankle-brachial index, C-reactive protein and endothelial function in a cardiovascular risk population. A total of 2856 subjects were invited to the study and 2085 (73%) responded. From these subjects, a cohort of 1756 risk persons was screened. We excluded the subjects with previously known cardiovascular disease or diabetes, because they were already under systematic follow-up. Out of the study subjects, 983 (56%) were women and 773 (44%) men. The ankle brachial index and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein were measured from 1047 subjects. Endothelial function was assessed by measuring reactive hyperemia pulse amplitude tonometry from 66 subjects with borderline peripheral arterial disease. In this study, smoking was a crucial risk factor for peripheral arterial disease. Subclinical peripheral arterial disease seems to be more common in hypertensive patients even without comorbidities. The measurement of the ankle brachial index is an efficient method to identify patients at an increased cardiovascular risk. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein did not correlate with the ankle brachial index or peripheral arterial disease. Instead, it correlated with measures of obesity. In a cardiovascular risk population with borderline peripheral arterial disease, nearly every fourth subject had endothelial dysfunction. This might point out a subgroup of individuals in need of more intensive treatment for their risk factors.

Do intrauterine growth restriction and overweight at primary school age increase the risk of elevated body mass index in young adults?

Obesity is one of the rising public health problems characterized as a risk factor for many chronic diseases in adulthood. Early life events such as intrauterine growth restriction, as well as life style, are associated with an increased prevalence of this disease. The present study was performed to determine if intrauterine growth restriction interacts with overweight at primary school age to affect body mass index (BMI) in young adults. From June 1, 1978 to May 31, 1979, 6827 singleton liveborns from Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, corresponding to 98% of all births at the 8 maternity hospitals, were examined and their mothers were interviewed. Samples from the initial cohort were examined again at primary school age (8 to 11 years of age) and at the time of military service (18 years of age). There were 519 male individuals with complete measurements taken in the three surveys. Intrauterine growth-restricted individuals had a BMI 0.68 kg/m² lower than that of individuals who were not restricted (95%CI = -1.34 to -0.03) and overweight at primary school age showed a positive and strong effect on BMI at 18 years of age (coefficient 5.03, 95%CI = 4.27 to 5.79). However, the increase in BMI was much higher - 6.90 kg/m² - when the conscript had been born with intrauterine growth restriction and presented overweight at primary school age (95%CI = 4.55 to 9.26). These findings indicate that the effect of intrauterine growth restrictionon BMI at 18 years of age is modified by later weight gain during school age.

Percent body fat is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk factors than body mass index

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the predictive values of percent body fat (PBF) and body mass index (BMI) for cardiovascular risk factors, especially when PBF and BMI are conflicting. BMI was calculated by the standard formula and PBF was determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis. A total of 3859 ambulatory adult Han Chinese subjects (2173 males and 1686 females, age range: 18-85 years) without a history of cardiovascular diseases were recruited from February to September 2009. Based on BMI and PBF, they were classified into group 1 (normal BMI and PBF, N = 1961), group 2 (normal BMI, but abnormal PBF, N = 381), group 3 (abnormal BMI, but normal PBF, N = 681), and group 4 (abnormal BMI and PBF, N = 836). When age, gender, lifestyle, and family history of obesity were adjusted, PBF, but not BMI, was correlated with blood glucose and lipid levels. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for cardiovascular risk factors in groups 2 and 4 were 1.88 (1.45-2.45) and 2.06 (1.26-3.35) times those in group 1, respectively, but remained unchanged in group 3 (OR = 1.32, 95%CI = 0.92-1.89). Logistic regression models also demonstrated that PBF, rather than BMI, was independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors. In conclusion, PBF, and not BMI, is independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors, indicating that PBF is a better predictor.

Glycemic index and glycemic load of tropical fruits and the potential risk for chronic diseases

The objective was to determine the glycemic index and glycemic load of tropical fruits and the potential risk for chronic diseases. Nine fruits were investigated: coconut water (for the purpose of this study, coconut water was classified as a “fruit”), guava, tamarind, passion fruit, custard apple, hog plum, cashew, sapodilla, and soursop. The GI and GL were determined according to the Food and Agriculture Organization protocol. The GL was calculated taking into consideration intake recommendation guidelines; 77.8% of the fruits had low GI although significant oscillations were observed in some graphs, which may indicate potential risks of disease. Coconut water and custard apple had a moderate GI, and all fruits had low GL. The fruits evaluated are healthy and can be consumed following the daily recommended amount. However, caution is recommended with fruits causing early glycemic peak and the fruits with moderated GI (coconut water and custard apple).

Using the Reliable Change Index Statistic to Analyze Developmental Changes in Infants at Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder

Longitudinal studies of the development of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) provide an understanding of which variables may be important predictors of an ASD. The objective of the current study is to apply the reliable change index (RCI) statistic to examine whether the Parent Observation of Early Markers Scale (POEMS) is sensitive to developmental change, and whether these changes can be quantified along a child’s developmental trajectory. Ninety-six children with older siblings with autism were followed from 1-36 months of age. Group-based RCI analysis confirms that the POEMS is capable of detecting significant changes within pre-defined diagnostic groups. Within-subject analysis suggests that ongoing monitoring of a child at-risk for an ASD requires interpretation of both significant intervals identified by the RCI statistic, as well as the presence of repeated high (i.e., >70) scores. This study provides preliminary evidence for a reasonably sensitive and specific means by which individual change can be clinically monitored via parent report.

Associations between area-level unemployment, body mass index, and risk factors for cardiovascular disease in an urban area

INTRODUCTION: Il existe peu d’évidences sur l’association entre le taux de chômage dans le milieu résidentiel (CR) et le risque de maladies cardiovasculaires parmi les résidents de milieux urbains. De plus, on ne sait pas si ce lien diffère entre les deux sexes. Cette thèse a pour objectif de déterminer la direction et la taille de l’association entre le CR et le risque de maladies cardiovasculaires, et d’examiner si cette association varie en fonction du sexe. MÉTHODES: Un sous-échantillon de 342 participants de l’Étude sur les habitudes de vie et la santé dans les quartiers montréalais a rapporté ses habitudes de vie et sa situation socio-économique. Des mesures biologiques et anthropométriques ont été recueillies par une infirmière. Le CR a été opérationnalisé en fonction d’une zone-tampon d’un rayon de 250 m centrée sur la résidence de chacun des participants à l’aide d’un Système d’Information Géographique (SIG). Des équations d’estimation généralisées ont été utilisées afin d’estimer l’association entre le CR et l’Indice de Masse Corporelle (IMC) et un score cumulatif de Risque Cardio-métabolique (RC) représentant la présence de valeurs élevées de cholestérol total, de triglycérides, de lipoprotéines de haute densité et d’hémoglobine glyquée. RÉSULTATS: Après ajustement pour l’âge, le sexe, le tabagisme, les comportements de santé et le statut socio-économique, le fait de vivre dans un endroit classé dans le 3e ou 4e quartile de CR était associé avec un IMC plus élevé (beta pour Q4 = 2.1 kg/m2, IC 95%: 1.02-3.20; beta pour Q3 = 1.5 kg/m2, IC 95%: 0.55-2.47) et un taux plus élevé de risque cardiovasculaires Risque Relatif [RR pour Q4 = 1.82 (IC 95 %: 1.35-2.44); RR pour Q3 = 1.66 (IC 95%: 1.33-2.06)] par rapport au 1er quartile. L'interaction entre le sexe et le CR révèle une différence absolue d’IMC de 1.99 kg/m2 (IC 95%: 0.00-4.01) et un risque supérieur (RR=1.39; IC 95%: 1.06-1.81) chez les femmes par rapport aux hommes. CONCLUSIONS: Le taux de chômage dans le milieux résidentiel est associé à un plus grand risque de maladies cardiovasculaires, mais cette association est plus prononcée chez les femmes.

The effect of asymmetries on stock index return value-at-risk estimates

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value-at-risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect of asymmetries on the evaluation and accuracy of VaR by comparing estimates based on various models.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.