Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente

Development of new membranes based on ionic liquid materials for gas separation

In the field of energy, natural gas is an essential bridge to a clean, low carbon, renewable energy era. However, natural gas processing and transportation regulation require the removal of contaminant compounds such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Regarding clean air, the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, specifically CO2, is of particular concern. Therefore, new costeffective, high performance technologies for carbon capture have been researched and the design of materials with the ability to efficiently separate CO2 from other gases is of vital importance.(...)

EL PAISAJE Y LA TRANSICIÓN ENERGÉTICA: COMPARANDO EL SURGIMIENTO DE PAISAJES DE ENERGÍA EÓLICA EN FRANCIA, ALEMANIA Y PORTUGAL

Due to the global acceptance of the reality of global warming, ever more countries are in the process of implementing alternative energies such as wind power. In this article, we focus on the transformation of space as a consequence of these newly established alternative energy policies. Landscapes are the level at which political visions and policy decisions endorse (or not) their very materiality. We analyze the deployment of wind power in three European countries, France, Germany and Portugal through the lens of ethnographic landscape studies. We argue that the successful implementation of low carbon futures is highly dependent on the respective national cultures of administration as well as on local practices, initiatives and perceptions of space at the local level. In each of the countries under scrutiny, we analyze the way in which wind power and landscape issues are framed, we point at potential tensions and explore how these are overcome (or not) at the local level so as to give way for the emergence of (new) wind power landscapes. We compare the role played by landscape cultures, institutions or practices in the development and resolution of tensions over the deployment of wind energy.

Improving building technologies with a sustainable strategy

In recent years it has been noticed the progressive disappearance of vernacular sustainable building technologies all over the world mainly due to a strong urban rehabilitation process with modern technologies not compatible with ancient knowledge. Simultaneously new dwellings are needed all over the world and in this sense it was decided to study an ecological and cost-controlled building technology of monolithic walls that can combine the use of low carbon footprint materials, such as earth, fibres and lime using an invasive species: giant reed cane (Arundo Donax). This paper explains the development of this building technology through testing diverse prototypes.

Benefits from energy related building renovation beyond costs, energy and emissions

The relevance of the building sector in the global energy use as well as in the global carbon emissions, both in the developed and developing countries, makes the improvement of the overall energy performance of existing buildings an important part of the actions to mitigate climate changes. Regardless of this potential for energy and emissions saving, large scale building renovation has been found hard to trigger, mainly because present standards are mainly focused on new buildings, not responding effectively to the numerous technical, functional and economic constraints of the existing ones. One of the common problems in the assessment of building renovation scenarios is that only energy savings and costs are normally considered, despite the fact that it has been long recognized that investment on energy efficiency and low carbon technologies yield several benefits beyond the value of saved energy which can be as important as the energy cost savings process. Based on the analysis of significant literature and several case studies, the relevance of co-benefits achieved in the renovation process is highlighted. These benefits can be felt at the building level by the owner or user (like increased user comfort, fewer problems with building physics, improved aesthetics) and should therefore be considered in the definition of the renovation measures, but also at the level of the society as a whole (like health effects, job creation, energy security, impact on climate change), and from this perspective, policy makers must be aware of the possible crossed impacts among different areas of the society for the development of public policies.

To determine if the ‘NIMBY’ phenomenon explains the slow progress of wind farm development or do institutional factors need to be taken in to consideration?

The threats posed by climate change are placing governments under increasing pressure to meet electricity demand from low carbon sources. Wind energy has been has been identified as one of the main technologies to help in meeting these demands. The public in general favour wind energy yet proposed targets for generation capacity lag behind proposed goals. The N IM B Y phenomenon has been suggested as one of the reasons why we are behind our wind generation capacity targets. It is a common mistake to take general support for granted and expect the public to support developments when confronted with them in their local area. In many cases it is not unheard of that governing bodies whether social, political, regulatory, environmental, or cultural can overrule general public support and halt developments. Motives to halt developments will vary depending on the institutional body involved. The problem with the term N IM B Y is that it is too basic a term to describe the broad spectrum of complex motives that various institutions including the public may have against a development. This research focuses on a case study where the developer had major problems with the local county council and its wind energy policies when he was erecting a wind turbine despite having gained planning permission. A survey questionnaire was also used as part o f the research to seek the perception a rural community had on wind energy. The research findings and results are discussed with respect to the literature review highlighting a general public support for wind energy and the influence institutional bodies have over the progress of developments.

Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies

The quintessence of recent natural science studies is that the 2 degrees C target can only be achieved with massive emission reductions in the next few years. The central twist of this paper is the addition of this limited time to act into a non-perpetual real options framework analysing optimal climate policy under uncertainty. The window-of-opportunity modelling setup shows that the limited time to act may spark a trend reversal in the direction of low-carbon alternatives. However, the implementation of a climate policy is evaded by high uncertainty about possible climate pathways.

Unilateral Emissions Mitigation, Spillovers, and Global Learning

What's the role of unilateral measures in global climate change mitigation in a post-Durban, post 2012 global policy regime? We argue that under conditions of preference heterogeneity, unilateral emissions mitigation at a subnational level may exist even when a nation is unwilling to commit to emission cuts. As the fraction of individuals unilaterally cutting emissions in a global strongly connected network of countries evolves over time, learning the costs of cutting emissions can result in the adoption of such activities globally and we establish that this will indeed happen under certain assumptions. We analyze the features of a policy proposal that could accelerate convergence to a low carbon world in the presence of global learning.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

IPH Submission to Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government Climate Change Response Bill 2010

The main purpose of the Clmate Change Bill is to provide for the adoption of a national policy for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; to support this through the making of mitigation and adaptation action plans; and to make provision for emission reduction targets to support the objective of transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy.The remit of the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is to promote cooperation for public health between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the areas of research and information, capacity building and policy advice. Our approach is to support Departments of Health and their agencies in both jurisdictions, and maximise the benefits of all-island cooperation to achieve practical benefits for people in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.IPH has a keen interest in the effects of climate change on health. In September 2010 the IPH published a paper – Climate Change and Health: A platform for action - to inform policy-makers and the public about the health benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper followed a seminar with international speakers, opened by Minister Gormley, on the same topic in February 2010. 

Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

Maatalouden tuloverolain ja elinkeinoverolain välisen rjauksen vaikutus matkailuyrityksen talouteen

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, millaisiin verotuksellisiin ratkaisuihin matkailuyrityksen kannattaisi maatalouden tuloverolain ja elinkeinoverolain välillä pyrkiä minimoidakseen maksettavien verojen määrä. Tutkielmassa vertaillaan maaseutu-matkailuyritystoiminnan mahdollisia vaihtoehtoisia veroratkaisuja. Esimerkkitapauksessa tehdään vaihtoehtolaskelmia matkailuyritystoiminnan verotuksesta todellisen maatalouden tuloverolain mukaan verotetun toiminnan lisäksi elinkeinoverolain mukaan verotettavasta toiminimenä harjoitetusta matkailuyritystoiminnasta sekä elinkeinoverolain mukaan verotettavasta erilliseksi osakeyhtiöksi yhtiöitetystä matkailuyritystoiminnasta. Tutkielmassa on käytetty kvantitatiivista eli määrällistä tukimusta. Tutkimusstrategiana on kokeellinen tutkimus, mikä on toteutettu valitsemalla matkailuyritysjoukosta todellinen matkailuyritys, jonka verotusta on tarkasteltu valittujen muuttujien muuttuessa. Tutkielman esimerkkitapauksessa matkailuyritystoiminnan muodostaman liikevaihdon ollessa pieni on maatalouden tuloverolain mukainen toiminta selvästi edullisempaa kuin elinkeinoverolain mukaan verotettava matkailuyritystoiminta. Matkailuyritystoiminnan noustessa selvästi merkittävämmäksi liiketoiminnan muodostajaksi kuin maatalouden muodostuu matkailuyritystoiminnan osakeyhtiöittäminen elinkeinoverolain piiriin verotuksellisesti yhtä edulliseksi ratkaisuksi kuin maatalouden tuloverolain mukaisesti toimiminen. Verojen määrään keskeisesti vaikuttavia tekijöitä liikevaihdon ja kulurakenteen lisäksi ovat tasausvaraus (maatalouden tuloverolaki), toimintavaraus (elinkeinoverolaki) sekä nettovarallisuustaso.

Assessment of Environmental Impacts of Power Generation

Through indisputable evidence of climate change and its link to the greenhouse gas emissions comes the necessity for change in energy production infrastructure during the coming decades. Through political conventions and restrictions energy industry is pushed toward using bigger share of renewable energy sources as energy supply. In addition to climate change, sustainable energy supply is another major issue for future development plans, but neither of these should come with unbearable price. All the power production types have environmental effects as well as strengths and weaknesses. Although each change comes with a price, right track in minimising the environmental impacts and energy supply security can be found by combining all possible low-carbon technologies and by improving energy efficiency in all sectors, for creating a new power production infrastructure of tolerable energy price and of minor environmental effects. GEMIS-Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems is a life-cycle analysis program which was used in this thesis to make indicative energy models for Finland’s future energy supply. Results indicate that the energy supply must comprise both high capacity nuclear power as well as large variation of renewable energy sources for minimization of all environmental effects and keeping energy price reasonable.

Governmental Measures to Enhance the Finnish Innovation System to Respond to the Challenge of Mitigating Climate Change

Climate innovations, that cover both technological applications and process and service innovations, play a key role in climate change mitigation. The purpose of this study was to examine how the Finnish innovation system could be enhanced with governmental measures so that the diffusion of climate innovations could be speeded up. During the study, it became evident that the governmental measures need to support the whole innovation chain, which comprises of research, development, demonstration and deployment. Only this can lead to the successful birth and diffusion of low carbon innovations. The study found that the strengths of the Finnish innovation system are research and development, and the current national innovation policies strongly support these activities. However, these have been emphasised at the expense of the demonstration and deployment. Consequently, the biggest bottlenecks in the Finnish innovation landscape are the lack of pilot and demonstration projects and slow commercialisation, thus the high price of the innovation. To meet with the challenge, the government should firstly promote strict greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. This would boost up the innovation activities, which would also lower the prices of the innovations. To speed up the commercialisation process, measures that stimulate the domestic market, such as feed-in-tariffs and public procurements, are needed. Special attention should also be paid to the measures that could shift the traditional closed innovation chain towards open innovation. This means that the product development should involve experts from several fields such as the user and marketing experts to speed up the commercialisation. In addition, efficient innovation co-operation between both private and public sector is essential. Finally, as the domestic resources are not adequate for producing all the innovations needed, the domestic innovation activities should be focused on a few sectors, and at the same time promote efficient import policies.