A long-term energy efficiency prediction model for the Brazilian automotive industry

According to law number 12.715/2012, Brazilian government instituted guidelines for a program named Inovar-Auto. In this context, energy efficiency is a survival requirement for Brazilian automotive industry from September 2016. As proposed by law, energy efficiency is not going to be calculated by models only. It is going to be calculated by the whole universe of new vehicles registered. In this scenario, the composition of vehicles sold in market will be a key factor on profits of each automaker. Energy efficiency and its consequences should be taken into consideration in all of its aspects. In this scenario, emerges the following question: which is the efficiency curve of one automaker for long term, allowing them to adequate to rules, keep balancing on investment in technologies, increasing energy efficiency without affecting competitiveness of product lineup? Among several variables to be considered, one can highlight the analysis of manufacturing costs, customer value perception and market share, which characterizes this problem as a multi-criteria decision-making. To tackle the energy efficiency problem required by legislation, this paper proposes a framework of multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed framework combines Delphi group and Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify suitable alternatives for automakers to incorporate in main Brazilian vehicle segments. A forecast model based on artificial neural networks was used to estimate vehicle sales demand to validate expected results. This approach is demonstrated with a real case study using public vehicles sales data of Brazilian automakers and public energy efficiency data.

Predicting long-term outcome after acute ischemic stroke: a simple index works in patients from controlled clinical trials

Background and Purpose—An early and reliable prognosis for recovery in stroke patients is important for initiation of individual treatment and for informing patients and relatives. We recently developed and validated models for predicting survival and functional independence within 3 months after acute stroke, based on age and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score assessed within 6 hours after stroke. Herein we demonstrate the applicability of our models in an independent sample of patients from controlled clinical trials. Methods—The prognostic models were used to predict survival and functional recovery in 5419 patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). Furthermore, we tried to improve the accuracy by adapting intercepts and estimating new model parameters. Results—The original models were able to correctly classify 70.4% (survival) and 72.9% (functional recovery) of patients. Because the prediction was slightly pessimistic for patients in the controlled trials, adapting the intercept improved the accuracy to 74.8% (survival) and 74.0% (functional recovery). Novel estimation of parameters, however, yielded no relevant further improvement. Conclusions—For acute ischemic stroke patients included in controlled trials, our easy-to-apply prognostic models based on age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score correctly predicted survival and functional recovery after 3 months. Furthermore, a simple adaptation helps to adjust for a different prognosis and is recommended if a large data set is available. (Stroke. 2008;39:000-000.)

“A long-term mortality analysis of subsidized firms in rural areas: an empirical study in the Portuguese Alentejo region”

Studies have demonstrated that public policies to support private firms’ investment have the ability to promote entrepreneurship, but the sustainability of subsidized firms has not often been analysed. This paper aims to examine this dimension specifically through evaluating the mortality of subsidized firms in the long-term. The analysis focuses on a case study of the LEADER+ Programme in the Alentejo region of Portugal. With this purpose, the paper examines the activity status (active or not active) of 154 private, rural, for-profit firms in Alentejo that had received a subsidy to support investment between 2002 and 2008 under the LEADER+ Programme. The methodology is based on binary choice models in order to study the probability of these firms still being active. The explanatory variables used are the following: (1) the characteristics of entrepreneurs and managers’ strategic decisions, (2) firm profile and characteristics, (3) regional economic environment. Data assessment showed that the cumulative mortality rate of firms on 31st December 2013 is over 20 %. Interpretation of the regression model revealed that he probability of firms’ survival increases with higher investment, firm age and regional business concentration, whereas the number of applications made by firms has a negative impact on their survival. So it seems that for subsidized firms the amount of investment is as important as its frequency.

Long-term Decline Of The Amazon Carbon Sink.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

Long-term preservation of Neozygites tanajoae (Entomophthorales : Neozygitaceae) in cadavers of Mononychellus tanajoae (Acari : Tetranychidae)

To determine the effect of storage on fungal survival, mummified cadavers of the cassava green mite pathogen, Neozygites tanajoae were placed at different conditions of temperature and relative humidity. The best condition for long-term preservation was -10 degrees C. At this condition, the fungus retained viability for 10 years when the experiment was terminated, with a decrease in sporulation with time. Cadavers placed at 4 degrees C and 5% RH sporulated for 2 years, while the fungus survived for only 7 days at 25 degrees C and 50% RH.

Long-term risk of first recurrent stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Few community-based studies have examined the long-term risk of recurrent stroke after an acute first-ever stroke. This study aimed to determine the absolute and relative risks of a first recurrent stroke over the first 5 years after a first-ever stroke and the predictors of such recurrence in a population-based series of people with first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Between February 1989 and August 1990, all people with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack of the brain who were resident in a geographically defined region of Perth, Western Australia, with a population of 138 708 people, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, and 5 years after the index event. Results-Three hundred seventy patients with a first-ever stroke were registered, of whom 351 survived >2 days. Data were available for 98% of the cohort at 5 years, by which time 199 patients (58%) had died and 52 (15%) had experienced a recurrent stroke, 12 (23%) of which were fatal within 28 days. The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 22.5% (95% confidence limits [CL], 16.8%, 28.1%). The risk of recurrent stroke was greatest in the first 6 months after stroke, at 8.8% (95% CL, 5.4%, 12.1%). After adjustment for age and sex, the prognostic factors for recurrent stroke were advanced, but not extreme, age (75 to 84 years) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.6; 95% CL, 1.1, 6.2), hemorrhagic index stroke (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.98, 4.4), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.95, 4.4). Conclusions-Approximately 1 in 6 survivors (15%) of a first-ever stroke experience a recurrent stroke over the next 5 years, of which 25% are fatal within 28 days. The pathological subtype of the recurrent stroke is the same as that of the index stroke in 88% of cases. The predictors of first recurrent stroke in this study were advanced age, hemorrhagic index stroke, and diabetes mellitus, but numbers of recurrent events were modest. Because the risk of recurrent stroke is highest (8.8%) in the first 6 months after stroke, strategies for secondary prevention should be initiated as soon as possible after the index event.

Analysis of long-term light-trap data for Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia: the effect of climate and crop host plants

Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri, Australia, were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner). The size of the second generation was significantly related to the size of the first generation, to winter rainfall, which had a positive effect, and to spring rainfall which had a negative effect. These variables accounted for up to 96% of the variation in size of the second generation from year to year. Rainfall and crop hosts were also important for the size of the third generation. The area and tonnage of many potential host crops were significantly correlated with winter rain. When winter rain was omitted from the analysis, the sizes of both the second and third generations could be expressed as a function of the size of the previous generation and of the areas planted to lucerne, sorghum and maize. Lucerne and maize always had positive coefficients and sorghum a negative one. We extended our analysis to catches of H. punctigera (Wallengren), which declines in abundance after the second generation. Winter rain had a positive effect on the sizes of the second and third generations, and rain in spring or early summer had a negative effect. Only the area grown to lucerne had a positive effect on abundance. Forecasts of pest levels from a few months to a few weeks in advance are discussed, along with the improved understanding of the seasonal dynamics of both species and the significance of crops in the management of insecticide resistance for H. armigera.

Long-term disability after first-ever stroke and related prognostic factors in the Perth Community Stroke Study, 1989-1990

Background and Purpose-Few reliable estimates of the long-term functional outcome after stroke are available. This population-based study aimed to describe disability, dependency, and related independent prognostic factors at 5 years after,a first-ever stroke in patients in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-All individuals with a suspected acute stroke who were resident in a geographically defined region (population, 138 708) of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria over a period of 18 months in 1989 to 1990. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 and 12 months and 5 years after the index event. Results-There were 370 cases of first-ever stroke, and 277 patients survived to 30 days. Of these early survivors, 152 (55%) were alive at 5 years, and among those who were neither institutionalized (n=146) nor disabled (n=129) at the time of their stroke, 21 (14%) were institutionalized in a nursing home, and 47 (36%) were disabled. The most important predictors of death or disability at 5 years were increasing age, baseline disability defined by a Barthel Index score of <20/20 (odds ratio [OR], 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 14), moderate hemiparesis (OR, 2.7. 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.2), severe hemiparesis (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 19), and recurrent stroke (OR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.0 to 30). A low level of activity before the stroke was a significant predictor of institutionalization, and subsequent recurrent stroke was a consistent, independent predictor of institutionalization, disability, and death or institutionalization, increasing the odds of each of these 3 adverse outcomes by 5- to 15-fold. Conclusions-Among 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, about half survive 5 years; of survivors, one third remain disabled, and I in 7 are in permanent institutional care. The major modifiable predictors of poor long-term outcome are a low level of activity before the stroke and subsequent recurrent stroke. Efforts to increase physical activity among the elderly and to prevent recurrent stroke in survivors of a first stroke are likely to reduce the long-term burden of cerebrovascular disease.

Long-term administration of IgG2a anti-NK1.1 monoclonal antibody ameliorates lupus-like disease in NZB/W mice in spite of an early worsening induced by an IgG2a-dependent BAFF/BLyS production

The role of natural killer (NK) T cells in the development of lupus-like disease in mice is still controversial. We treated NZB/W mice with anti-NK1.1 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and our results revealed that administration of either an irrelevant immunoglobulin G2a (IgG2a) mAb or an IgG2a anti-NK1.1 mAb increased the production of anti-dsDNA antibodies in young NZB/W mice. However, the continuous administration of an anti-NK1.1 mAb protected aged NZB/W mice from glomerular injury, leading to prolonged survival and stabilization of the proteinuria. Conversely, the administration of the control IgG2a mAb led to an aggravation of the lupus-like disease. Augmented titres of anti-dsDNA in NZB/W mice, upon IgG2a administration, correlated with the production of BAFF/BLyS by dendritic, B and T cells. Treatment with an anti-NK1.1 mAb reduced the levels of interleukin-16, produced by T cells, in spleen cell culture supernatants from aged NZB/W. Adoptive transfer of NK T cells from aged to young NZB/W accelerated the production of anti-dsDNA in recipient NZB/W mice, suggesting that NK T cells from aged NZB/W are endowed with a B-cell helper activity. In vitro studies, using purified NK T cells from aged NZB/W, showed that these cells provided helper B-cell activity for the production of anti-dsDNA. We concluded that NK T cells are involved in the progression of lupus-like disease in mature NZB/W mice and that immunoglobulin of the IgG2a isotype has an enhancing effect on antibody synthesis due to the induction of BAFF/BLyS, and therefore have a deleterious effect in the NZB/W mouse physiology.

The effect of internal thoracic artery grafts on long-term clinical outcomes after coronary bypass surgery

Objectives: We sought to compare long-term outcomes after coronary bypass surgery with and without an internal thoracic artery graft. Methods: We analyzed clinical outcomes over a median follow-up of 6.7 years among 3,087 patients who received coronary bypass surgery as participants in one of 8 clinical trials comparing surgical intervention with angioplasty. We used 2 statistical methods (covariate adjustment and propensity score matching) to adjust for the nonrandomized selection of internal thoracic artery grafts. Results: Internal thoracic artery grafting was associated with lower mortality, with hazard ratios of 0.77 (confidence interval, 0.62-0.97; P = .02) for covariate adjustment and 0.77 (confidence interval, 0.57-1.05; P = .10) for propensity score matching. The composite end point of death or myocardial infarction was reduced to a similar extent, with hazard ratios of 0.83 (confidence interval, 0.69-1.00; P = .05) for covariate adjustment to 0.78 (confidence interval, 0.61-1.00; P = .05) for propensity score matching. There was a trend toward less angina at 1 year, with odds ratios of 0.81 (confidence interval, 0.61-1.09; P = .16) in the covariate-adjusted model and 0.81 (confidence interval, 0.55-1.19; P = .28) in the propensity score-adjusted model. Conclusions: Use of an internal thoracic artery graft during coronary bypass surgery seems to improve long-term clinical outcomes. (J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2011; 142: 829-35)

Glycemia and prognosis of patients with chronic heart failure-Subanalysis of the Long-term Prospective Randomized Controlled Study Using Repetitive Education at Six-Month Intervals and Monitoring for Adherence in Heart Failure Outpatients (REMADHE) trial

Background Heart failure and diabetes often occur simultaneously in patients, but the prognostic value of glycemia in chronic heart failure is debatable. We evaluated the role of glycemia on prognosis of heart failure. Methods Outpatients with chronic heart failure from the Long-term Prospective Randomized Controlled Study Using Repetitive Education at Six-Month Intervals and Monitoring for Adherence in Heart Failure Outpatients (REMADHE) trial were grouped according to the presence of diabetes and level of glycemia. All-cause mortality/heart transplantation and unplanned hospital admission were evaluated. Results Four hundred fifty-six patients were included (135 [29.5%] female, 124 [27.2%] with diabetes mellitus, age of w50.2 +/- 11.4 years, and left-ventricle ejection fraction of 34.7% +/- 10.5%). During follow-up (3.6 +/- 2.2 years), 27 (5.9%) patients were submitted to heart transplantation and 202 (44.2%) died; survival was similar in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. When patients with and without diabetes were categorized according to glucose range (glycemia <= 100 mg/dL [5.5 mmol/L]), as well as when distributed in quintiles of glucose, the survival was significantly worse among patients with lower levels of glycemia. This finding persisted in Cox proportional hazards regression model that included gender, etiology, left ventricle ejection fraction, left ventricle diastolic diameter, creatinine level and beta-blocker therapy, and functional status (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.09-1.69, P = .039). No difference regarding unplanned hospital admission was found. Conclusion We report on an inverse association between glycemia and mortality in outpatients with chronic heart failure. These results point to a new pathophysiologic understanding of the interactions between diabetes mellitus, hyperglycemia, and heart disease. (Am Heart J 2010; 159: 90-7.)

Peritonectomy for Peritoneal Carcinomatosis: Long-Term Outcomes from a Single Brazilian Institution

The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term outcomes of a single institution, Hospital Sirio-Libanes in SA o pound Paulo, Brazil, regarding the treatment of peritoneal carcinomatosis. Between October 2002 and October 2006, 46 consecutive patients were treated with radical cytoreduction and hyperthermic peritoneal chemotherapy. There were 21 patients with peritoneal surface malignancy (PSM) from colorectal origin (among whom 8 had an appendiceal primary), 15 with ovarian carcinomas, 2 with primary peritoneal mesotheliomas, and 8 with other cancers. The median age was 49 years (range 18-77 years). All patients were followed for a median of 20 months. Demographic data, tumor histology, the peritoneal carcinomatosis index (PCI), operative procedures (extension of resection, lymphadenectomy), and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) characteristics (drugs, temperature, duration) were prospectively recorded. Perioperative mortality and morbidity and the long-term outcome were assessed. Complete cytoreduction was achieved in 45 patients. The median PCI was 11, and the mean operating time was 17 h. There were no procedure-related deaths, but major morbidity was observed in 52% and included fistulas, abscesses, and hematologic complications. The overall Kaplan-Meier 4-year estimated survival was 56%. Among patients with PSM from colorectal carcinoma, the estimated 3-year survival was 70%. Nine (42%) patients had a recurrence, three with peritoneal disease. The median disease-free-interval was 16 months. The ovarian cancer patients had an estimated 4-year survival rate of 75% and median disease-free survival duration of 21 months. Cytoreductive surgery with HIPEC may improve survival of selected patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis, with acceptable morbidity.

Long-term outcomes of radical cystectomy with preservation of prostatic capsule

We report our results of orthotopic ileal neobladder after radical cystectomy with prostatic adenomectomy with regard to urinary continence, sexual outcome and disease control. Between March 2003 and July 2004, 22 men with bladder transitional cell carcinoma (mean age 65.0) were analyzed. They underwent radical cystectomy with prostatic adenomectomy with preservation of the prostatic capsule, seminal vesicles and orthotopic ileal neobladder. Urinary continence was assessed after 2 days, 2 months, 6 months and 1 year. Preservation of sexual function was defined as the ability to have sexual intercourse and was assessed after 2-, 6-, and 12-months postoperatively. Overall survival and cancer-specific survival were assessed. Median postoperative follow-up was 60 months. Daytime and nighttime urinary continence after 48 h was 47 and 14%, respectively. After 2, 6 and 12 months, these rates were 74 and 16%, 85 and 26%, and 94 and 31%, respectively. Sexual intercourse was achieved in 69% of patients. Overall survival rate was 68%, and cancer-specific survival rate was 73%. Overall survival rates according to pathologic stage for pT0, pT1, pT2 and pT3 were 100, 60, 71 and 57%, and cancer-specific survival were 100, 80, 71 and 57%, respectively. Urinary continence and sexual function achieved by radical cystectomy with prostatic adenomectomy with orthotopic ileal neobladder seem to be similar to those achieved by the conventional technique with satisfactory oncologic results.

Obstetric Outcome in Pregnant Women on Long-term Dialysis: A Case Series

Background: Although still uncommon, pregnancy frequency in women on maintenance hemodialysis therapy has increased in the past 20 years. Most published reports suggest that intensified hemodialysis regimens result in better pregnancy outcomes. The small number of patients investigated in all reported series is the main limitation of the available studies. Study Design: Retrospective case series. Setting & Participants: Data for all pregnancies that occurred in 1988-2008 in women undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (52 pregnancies) at the Sao Paulo University Medical School (Sao Paulo, Brazil). Outcomes & Measurements: We analyzed maternal and fetal outcomes of 52 pregnancies, as well as their relationship with various clinical, laboratory, and hemodialysis parameters, such as pre-eclampsia, pregnancy before or after dialysis therapy, hemodialysis dose, polyhydramnios, anemia, and predialysis serum urea level. In addition, logistic regression models for a composite adverse fetal outcome (perinatal death or extremely premature delivery) and linear regression models for birth weight were built. Results: 87% overall rate of successful delivery, with a mean gestational age of 32.7 +/- 3.1 weeks. Pre-eclampsia was associated with a poor prognosis compared with pregnancies without pre-eclampsia: a successful delivery rate of 60% versus 92.9% (P = 0.02), extremely premature delivery rate of 77.8% versus 3.3% (P = 0.001), lower gestational age (P = 0.001), and birth weight (P = 0.001). Patients with an adverse composite fetal outcome had a higher frequency of pre-eclampsia (P = 0.001), lower frequency of polyhydramnios (P = 0.03), lower third-trimester hematocrit (P = 0.03), and higher predialysis serum urea level (P = 0.03). The same results were seen for birth weight. Limitations: Retrospective data analysis. The absence of creatinine clearance measurements did not allow evaluation of the impact of residual renal function on fetal outcome. Conclusions: Outcomes of pregnancy in women undergoing hemodialysis often are good. Preeclampsia, third-trimester hematocrit, polyhydramnios, and predialysis serum urea level are important variables associated with fetal outcome and birth weight. Am J Kidney Dis 56:77-85. (C) 2010 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.Inc

Association between degenerative aortic valve disease and long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors: results of the longitudinal population-based KORA/MONICA survey

Degenerative aortic valve disease (DAVD), a common finding in the elderly, is associated with an increased risk of death due to cardiovascular causes. Taking advantage of its longitudinal design, this study evaluates the prevalence of DAVD and its temporal associations with long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors in the general population. We studied 953 subjects (aged 25-74 years) from a random sample of German residents. Risk factors had been determined at a baseline investigation in 1994/95. At a follow-up investigation, 10 years later, standardized echocardiography determined aortic valve morphology and aortic valve area (AVA) as well as left ventricular geometry and function. At the follow-up study, the overall prevalence of DAVD was 28%. In logistic regression models adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline age (OR 2.0 [1.7-2.3] per 10 years, P < 0.001), active smoking (OR 1.7 [1.1-2.4], P = 0.009) and elevated total cholesterol levels (OR 1.2 [1.1-1.3] per increase of 20 mg/dL, P < 0.001) were significantly related to DAVD at follow-up. Furthermore, age, baseline status of smoking, and total cholesterol level were significant predictors of a smaller AVA at follow-up study. In contrast, hypertension and obesity had no detectable relationship with long-term changes of aortic valve structure. In the general population we observed a high prevalence of DAVD that is associated with long-term exposure to elevated cholesterol levels and active smoking. These findings strengthen the notion that smoking cessation and cholesterol lowering are promising treatment targets for prevention of DAVD.