Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Long-term effects of watershed management on surface runoff and sediment loss in the Ethiopian Highlands

Data on rainfall, runoff and sediment loss from different land use types have been collected by the Soil Conservation Research Programme in seven small catchments (73-673 hectares) throughout the Ethiopian Highlands since the early 1980s. Monitoring was carried out on a storm-to-storm basis for extended periods of 10-20 years, and the data are analysed here to assess long-term effects of changes. Soil and water conservation technologies were introduced in the early years in the catchments in view of their capacity to reduce runoff and sediment yield. Results indicate that rainfall did not substantially change over the observation periods. Land use changes and land degradation, however, altered runoff, as shown by the data from small test plots (30 m2), which were not altered by conservation measures during the monitoring periods. Sediment delivery from the catchments may have decreased due to soil and water conservation, while runoff rates did not change significantly. Extrapolation of the results in the highlands, however, showed that expansion of cultivated and grazing land induced by population growth may have increased the overall surface runoff. Watershed management in the catchments, finally, had beneficial effects on ecosystem services by reducing soil erosion, restoring soil fertility, enhancing agricultural production, and maintaining overall runoff to the benefit of lowland areas and neighbouring countries.

Long-term cardiac remodeling and arrhythmias in nonelite marathon runners

Long-term endurance sports are associated with atrial remodeling and atrial arrhythmias. More importantly, high-level endurance training may promote right ventricular (RV) dysfunction and complex ventricular arrhythmias. We investigated the long-term consequences of marathon running on cardiac remodeling as a potential substrate for arrhythmias with a focus on the right heart. We invited runners of the 2010 Grand Prix of Bern, a 10-mile race. Of 873 marathon and nonmarathon runners who applied, 122 (61 women) entered the final analysis. Subjects were stratified according to former marathon participations: control group (nonmarathon runners, n = 34), group 1 (1 marathon to 5 marathons, mean 2.7, n = 46), and group 2 (≥6 marathons, mean 12.8, n = 42). Mean age was 42 ± 7 years. Results were adjusted for gender, age, and lifetime training hours. Right and left atrial sizes increased with marathon participations. In group 2, right and left atrial enlargements were present in 60% and 74% of athletes, respectively. RV and left ventricular (LV) dimensions showed no differences among groups, and RV or LV dilatation was present in only 2.4% or 4.3% of marathon runners, respectively. In multiple linear regression analysis, marathon participation was an independent predictor of right and left atrial sizes but had no effect on RV and LV dimensions and function. Atrial and ventricular ectopic complexes during 24-hour Holter monitoring were low and equally distributed among groups. In conclusion, in nonelite athletes, marathon running was not associated with RV enlargement, dysfunction, or ventricular ectopy. Marathon running promoted biatrial remodeling.

Effect of short- and long-term treatment with valproate on carnitine homeostasis in humans

The aim of this study was to identify the mechanisms of hypocarnitinemia in patients treated with valproate.

High-resolution esophageal long-term ECG allows detailed atrial wave morphology analysis in case of atrial ectopic beats

Detection of arrhythmic atrial beats in surface ECGs can be challenging when they are masked by the R or T wave, or do not affect the RR-interval. Here, we present a solution using a high-resolution esophageal long-term ECG that offers a detailed view on the atrial electrical activity. The recorded ECG shows atrial ectopic beats with long coupling intervals, which can only be successfully classified using additional morphology criteria. Esophageal high-resolution ECGs provide this information, whereas surface long-term ECGs show poor atrial signal quality. This new method is a promising tool for the long-term rhythm monitoring with software-based automatic classification of atrial beats.

Ten Years after the Chernobyl Accident: Long-Term Immunological Consequences; Prognosis of Autoimmune Disorders

The Chernobyl tragedy was the biggest accident since the beginning of the nuclear power industry. The aim of this study was to determine the role of immunological mechanisms in the development of autoimmune disorders (thyroiditis and cataract) and cancers among those workers who participated in clean-up operations in 1986. Blood samples from 165 clean-up workers aged 30-65 from Minsk and Kiev who underwent prophylactic medical examinations and from 80 healthy donors were investigated for the presence of autoimmune reactions and the appearance of onco-foetal antigens. The sera of clean-up workers were found to include the thyroid gland antigen, auto-antibodies to thyroid gland and eye antigens, and immune complexes which are normally absent or found in much lower quantities. The appearance of the clinically unmanifested thyroid gland antigen made it possible to generate a concept describing the mechanism for induction and long-term maintenance of auto-antibody production in an organism after irradiation. Lymphocytes from clean-up workers showed normally absent onco-foetal antigens (PSG and CEA). The data obtained indicate that clean-up workers represent a high risk group for autoimmune and cancer diseases. Immunological findings reveal the long-lasting effects of low doses of irradiation and may be used in prognosis and monitoring of human health.

Patient self-management of long-term oral anticoagulation in Switzerland

Indications for oral anticoagulation (OAC) have increased in recent years. OAC requires frequent monitoring of the prothrombin time to keep the intensity within the therapeutic range and to minimise the risk for complications. Patient self-management (PSM) has been found to improve the quality of OAC. The present study aimed to investigate the first 330 patients performing PSM in Switzerland. A questionnaire was sent to all patients who followed a teaching program for PSM of OAC between 1998 and 2003. Moreover, family physicians were contacted and/or discharge letters were obtained from the hospitals or the treating physicians. During the study period 13 patients died. Out of the 300 patients providing information 254 (85%) still perform PSM. At least one INR determination per two weeks was done by 74% of the patients and 25% performed at least one INR measurement every 15-30 days. The median time spent within the individual INR target range was 72%. No thromboembolic complications occurred, however, among the 13 patients who died, 1 had myocardial infarction and 6 died of heart failure. When counting these events as arterial thromboembolic complications the frequency was 0.6 (95% CI: 0.3-1.3) per 100 patient-years. The frequency of major bleeding was 0.6 (95% CI: 0.2-1.3) per 100 patient-years. We conclude from this study investigating a real-world patient collective that PSM is suitable and safe for the patients identified by their family physicians and successfully trained by our training centre.

Cellular senescence of white blood cells in very long-term survivors after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: the role of chronic graft-versus-host disease and female donor sex

In this single-center, cross-sectional study, we evaluated 44 very long-term survivors with a median follow-up of 17.5 years (range, 11-26 years) after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. We assessed the telomere length difference in human leukocyte antigen-identical donor and recipient sibling pairs and searched for its relationship with clinical factors. The telomere length (in kb, mean +/- SD) was significantly shorter in all recipient blood cells compared with their donors' blood cells (P < .01): granulocytes (6.5 +/- 0.9 vs 7.1 +/- 0.9), naive/memory T cells (5.7 +/- 1.2 vs 6.6 +/- 1.2; 5.2 +/- 1.0 vs 5.7 +/- 0.9), B cells (7.1 +/- 1.1 vs 7.8 +/- 1.1), and natural killer/natural killer T cells (4.8 +/- 1.0 vs 5.6 +/- 1.3). Chronic graft-versus-host disease (P < .04) and a female donor (P < .04) were associated with a greater difference in telomere length between donor and recipient. Critically short telomeres have been described in degenerative diseases and secondary malignancies. If this hypothesis can be confirmed, identification of recipients at risk for cellular senescence could become part of monitoring long-term survivors after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Long-term trends of HIV type 1 drug resistance prevalence among antiretroviral treatment-experienced patients in Switzerland

BACKGROUND:Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. METHODS:On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). RESULTS:Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had >or= 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. CONCLUSIONS:Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.

Long-Term and Seasonal Variations in CO2: Linkages to Catchment Alkalinity Generation

As atmospheric emissions of S have declined in the Northern Hemisphere, there has been an expectation of increased pH and alkalinity in streams believed to have been acidified by excess S and N. Many streams and lakes have not recovered. Evidence from East Bear Brook in Maine, USA and modelling with the groundwater acid-base model MAGIC (Cosby et al. 1985a,b) indicate that seasonal and yearly variations in soil PCO2 are adequate to enhance or even reverse acid-base (alkalinity) changes anticipated from modest decreases of SO4 in surface waters. Alkalinity is generated in the soil by exchange of H+ from dissociation of H2CO3, which in turn is derived from the dissolving of soil CO2. The variation in soil PCO2 produces an alkalinity variation of up to 15 mu eq L-1 in stream water. Detecting and relating increases in alkalinity to decreases in stream SO4 are significantly more difficult in the short term because of this effect. For example, modelled alkalinity recovery at Bear Brook due to a decline of 20 mu eq SO4 L-1 in soil solution is compensated by a decline from 0.4 to 0.2% for soil air PCO2. This compensation ability decays over time as base saturation declines. Variable PCO2 has less effect in more acidic soils. Short-term decreases of PCO2 below the long-term average value produce short-term decreases in alkalinity, whereas short-term increases in PCO2 produce shortterm alkalization. Trend analysis for detecting recovery of streams and lakes from acidification after reduced atmospheric emissions will require a longer monitoring period for statistical significance than previously appreciated.

Long-term trends in invertebrate–habitat relationships under protected and fished conditions

Few studies examine the long-term effects of changing predator size and abundance on the habitat associations of resident organisms despite that this knowledge is critical to understand the ecosystem effects of fishing. Marine reserves offer the opportunity to determine ecosystem-level effects of manipulated predator densities, while parallel monitoring of adjacent fished areas allows separating these effects from regional-scale change. Relationships between two measures of benthic habitat structure (reef architecture and topographic complexity) and key invertebrate species were followed over 17 years at fished and protected subtidal rocky reefs associated with two southern Australian marine reserves. Two commercially harvested species, the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) and blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) were initially weakly associated with habitat structure across all fished and protected sites. The strength of association with habitat for both species increased markedly at protected sites 2 years after marine reserve declaration, and then gradually weakened over subsequent years. The increasing size of rock lobster within reserves apparently reduced their dependency on reef shelters as refuges from predation. Rising predation by fish and rock lobster in the reserves corresponded with weakening invertebrate–habitat relationships for H. rubra and sea urchins (Heliocidaris erythrogramma). These results emphasise that animal–habitat relationships are not necessarily stable through time and highlight the value of marine reserves as reference sites. Our work shows that fishery closures to enhance populations of commercially important and keystone species should be in areas with a range of habitat features to accommodate shifting ecological requirements with ontogenesis.

Micronutrient Supplementation after Biliopancreatic Diversion with Duodenal Switch in the Long Term

Background Malabsorptive bariatric surgery requires lifelongmicronutrientsupplementation.Basedontherecommendations, we assessed the number of adjustments of micronutrientsupplementationandtheprevalenceofvitaminandmineral deficiencies at a minimum follow-up of 5 years after biliopancreatic diversion with duodenal switch (BPD-DS). Methods Between October 2010 and December 2013, a total of 51 patients at a minimum follow-up of 5 years after BPDDS were invited for a clinical check-up with a nutritional blood screening test for vitamins and minerals. Results Forty-three of fifty-one patients (84.3 %) completed the blood sampling with a median follow-up of 71.2 (range 60–102) monthsafter BPD-DS. At that time,all patientswere supplemented with at least one multivitamin. However, 35 patients (81.4 %) showed either a vitamin or a mineral deficiencyoracombinationofit.Nineteenpatients(44.1%)were anemic,and17patients(39.5%)hadanirondeficiency.High deficiency rates for fat-soluble vitamins were also present in 23.2 % for vitamin A, in 76.7 % for vitamin D, in 7.0 % for vitamin E, and in 11.6 % for vitamin K. Conclusions Theresultsofourstudyshowthattheprevalence ofvitaminandmineraldeficienciesafterBPD-DSis81.4%at a minimum follow-up of 5 years. The initial prescription of micronutrientsupplementationandfurtheradjustmentsduring thefirstfollow-upwereinsufficient toavoidlong-term micronutrient deficiencies. Life-long monitoring of micronutrients at a specialized bariatric center and possibly a better micronutrient supplementation, is crucial to avoid a deficient micronutrient status at every stage after malabsorptive bariatric surgery

Long-term environmental time series of continuously collected data in hydroelectric reservoirs in Brazil

Long-term environmental time series of continuously collected data are fundamental to identify and classify pulses and determine their role in aquatic systems. This paper presents a web based archive for limnological and meteorological data collected by integrated system for environmental monitoring (SIMA). The environmental parameters that are measured by SIMA are: chlorophyll-a (µg/L), water surface temperature (ºC), water column temperature by a thermistor string (ºC), turbidity (NTU), pH, dissolved oxygen concentration (mg/L), electric conductivity (µS/cm), wind speed (m/s) and direction (º), relative humidity (%), short wave radiation (W/m**2), barometric pressure (hPa). The data are collected in preprogrammed time interval (1 hour) and are transmitted by satellite in quasi-real time for any user in a range of 2500 km from the acquisition point. So far 11 hydroelectric reservoirs being monitored using the SIMA buoy. A basic statistics (mean and standard deviation) for some parameters and an example of time series were displayed. The main observed problem are divided into sensors and satellite. The sensors problems is due to the environmental characteristics of each water body. In acid waters the sensors of water quality rapidly degrade, and the collected data are invalid. Another problem is the infestation of periphyton in the sensor. SIMA buoy makes the parameters readings every hour, or 24 readings per day. However, not always received all readings because the system requires satellites passing over the buoy antenna to complete the transfer and due to the satellite constellation position, some locations inland are not met as often as necessary to complete all transmissions. This is the more often causes for lack in the time series.