Equilibration of the terrestrial water, nitrogen, and carbon cycles

Recent advances in biologically based ecosystem models of the coupled terrestrial, hydrological, carbon, and nutrient cycles have provided new perspectives on the terrestrial biosphere’s behavior globally, over a range of time scales. We used the terrestrial ecosystem model Century to examine relationships between carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics. The model, run to a quasi-steady-state, shows strong correlations between carbon, water, and nitrogen fluxes that lead to equilibration of water/energy and nitrogen limitation of net primary productivity. This occurs because as the water flux increases, the potentials for carbon uptake (photosynthesis), and inputs and losses of nitrogen, all increase. As the flux of carbon increases, the amount of nitrogen that can be captured into organic matter and then recycled also increases. Because most plant-available nitrogen is derived from internal recycling, this latter process is critical to sustaining high productivity in environments where water and energy are plentiful. At steady-state, water/energy and nitrogen limitation “equilibrate,” but because the water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles have different response times, inclusion of nitrogen cycling into ecosystem models adds behavior at longer time scales than in purely biophysical models. The tight correlations among nitrogen fluxes with evapotranspiration implies that either climate change or changes to nitrogen inputs (from fertilization or air pollution) will have large and long-lived effects on both productivity and nitrogen losses through hydrological and trace gas pathways. Comprehensive analyses of the role of ecosystems in the carbon cycle must consider mechanisms that arise from the interaction of the hydrological, carbon, and nutrient cycles in ecosystems.

A long marine history of carbon cycle modulation by orbital-climatic changes

Pacing of the marine carbon cycle by orbital forcing during the Pliocene and Pleistocene Ice Ages [past 2.5 million years (Myr)] is well known. As older deep-sea sediment records are being studied at greater temporal resolution, it is becoming clear that similar fluctuations in the marine carbon system have occurred throughout the late Mesozoic and Tertiary, despite the absence of large continental ice sheets over much of this time. Variations in both the organic and the calcium carbonate components of the marine carbon system seem to have varied cyclically in response to climate forcing, and carbon and carbonate time series appear to accurately characterize the frequency spectrum of ancient climatic change. For the past 35 Myr, much of the variance in carbonate content carries the “polar” signal of obliquity [41,000 years (41 kyr)] forcing. Over the past 125 Myr, there is evidence from marine sediments of the continued role of precessional (≈21 kyr) climatic cycles. Repeat patterns of sedimentation at about 100, 400, and 2,400 kyr, the modulation periods of precession, persistently enter into marine carbon cycle records as well. These patterns suggest a nonlinear response of climate and/or the sedimentation of organic carbon and carbonates to precessional orbital perturbations. Nonlinear responses of the carbon system may help to amplify relatively weak orbital insolation anomalies into more significant climatic perturbations through positive feedback effects. Nonlinearities in the carbon cycle may have transformed orbital-climatic cycles into long-wavelength features on time scales comparable to the residence times of carbon and nutrient elements in the ocean.

Entangled-state cycles from conditional quantum evolution

A system of cascaded qubits interacting via the one-way exchange of photons is studied. While for general operating conditions the system evolves to a superposition of Bell states (a dark state) in the long-time limit, under a particular resonance condition no steady state is reached within a finite time. We analyze the conditional quantum evolution (quantum trajectories) to characterize the asymptotic behavior under this resonance condition. A distinct bimodality is observed: for perfect qubit coupling, the system either evolves to a maximally entangled Bell state without emitting photons (the dark state) or executes a sustained entangled-state cycle-random switching between a pair of Bell states while emitting a continuous photon stream; for imperfect coupling, two entangled-state cycles coexist, between which a random selection is made from one quantum trajectory to another.

Apodisation of photo-induced waveguide gratings using double-exposure with complementary duty cycles

We present a novel apodisation scheme for photo-induced waveguide gratings. The apodisation is implemented with double exposures that have reversely varying duty cycles. We have successfully applied the proposed scheme to remove the sidelobes of long period gratings (LPGs). We also observed for the first time super strong sidelobes in LPGs when creating them with only a single varying-duty-cycle exposure. The strong sidelobes can be well explained with a Mach-Zehnder interference model.

Apodisation of photo-induced waveguide gratings using double-exposure with complementary duty cycles

We present a novel apodisation scheme for photo-induced waveguide gratings. The apodisation is implemented with double exposures that have reversely varying duty cycles. We have successfully applied the proposed scheme to remove the sidelobes of long period gratings (LPGs). We also observed for the first time super strong sidelobes in LPGs when creating them with only a single varying-duty-cycle exposure. The strong sidelobes can be well explained with a Mach-Zehnder interference model.

The role of national culture in advertising's sensitivity to business cycles:an investigation across continents

The authors conduct a systematic investigation into the cyclical sensitivity of advertising expenditures in 37 countries, covering four key media: magazines, newspapers, radio, and television. They show that advertising is considerably more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the economy as a whole. Advertising behaves less cyclically in countries high in long-term orientation and power distance, but it is more cyclical in countries high in uncertainty avoidance. Furthermore, advertising is more sensitive to the business cycle in countries characterized by significant stock market pressure and few foreign-owned multinational corporations. The authors provide initial evidence on the long-term social and managerial losses incurred when companies tie ad spending too tightly to business cycles. Countries in which advertising behaves more cyclically exhibit slower growth of the advertising industry. Moreover, private-label growth is higher in countries characterized by more cyclical advertising spending, implying significant losses for brand manufacturers. Finally, an examination of 26 global companies shows that stock price performance is lower for companies that exhibit stronger procyclical advertising spending patterns.

Complex Oscillations and Limit Cycles in Autonomous Two-Component Incommensurate Fractional Dynamical Systems

MSC 2010: 26A33, 34D05, 37C25

Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

Arctic ecosystem responses to changes in water availability and warming: Short and long-term responses

Arctic soils store close to 14% of the global soil carbon. Most of arctic carbon is stored below ground in the permafrost. With climate warming the decomposition of the soil carbon could represent a significant positive feedback to global greenhouse warming. Recent evidence has shown that the temperature of the Arctic is already increasing, and this change is associated mostly with anthropogenic activities. Warmer soils will contribute to permafrost degradation and accelerate organic matter decay and thus increase the flux of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. Temperature and water availability are also important drivers of ecosystem performance, but effects can be complex and in opposition. Temperature and moisture changes can affect ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary productivity (GPP) independently; an increase in the net ecosystem exchange can be a result of either a decrease in ER or an increase in GPP. Therefore, understanding the effects of changes in ecosystem water and temperature on the carbon flux components becomes key to predicting the responses of the Arctic to climate change. The overall goal of this work was to determine the response of arctic systems to simulated climate change scenarios with simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture. A temperature and hydrological manipulation in a naturally-drained lakebed was used to assess the short-term effect of changes in water and temperature on the carbon cycle. Also, as part of International Tundra Experiment Network (ITEX), I determined the long-term effect of warming on the carbon cycle in a natural hydrological gradient established in the mid 90's. I found that the carbon balance is highly sensitive to short-term changes in water table and warming. However, over longer time periods, hydrological and temperature changed soil biophysical properties, nutrient cycles, and other ecosystem structural and functional components that down regulated GPP and ER, especially in wet areas.

Some misspecfication problems in long-memory time series models

Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematics

Synthesis of a porous sheet-like V₂O₅-CNT nanocomposite using an ice-templating 'bricks-and-mortar' assembly approach as a high-capacity, long cyclelife cathode material for lithium-ion batteries

Tailoring the nanostructures of electrode materials is an effective way to enhance their electrochemical performance for energy storage. Herein, an ice-templating "bricks-and-mortar" assembly approach is reported to make ribbon-like V2O5 nanoparticles and CNTs integrated into a two-dimensional (2D) porous sheet-like V2O5-CNT nanocomposite. The obtained sheet-like V2O5-CNT nanocomposite possesses unique structural characteristics, including a hierarchical porous structure, 2D morphology, large specific surface area and internal conducting networks, which lead to superior electrochemical performances in terms of long-term cyclability and significantly enhanced rate capability when used as a cathode material for LIBs. The sheet-like V2O5-CNT nanocomposite can charge/discharge at high rates of 5C, 10C and 20C, with discharge capacities of approximately 240 mA h g-1, 180 mA h g-1, and 160 mA h g-1, respectively. It also retains 71% of the initial discharge capacity after 300 cycles at a high rate of 5C, with only 0.097% capacity loss per cycle. The rate capability and cycling performance of the sheet-like V2O5-CNT nanocomposite are significantly better than those of commercial V2O5 and most of the reported V2O5 nanocomposite.

Polyhedral results for the Cardinality Constrained Multi-cycle Problem (CCMcP) and the Cardinality Constrained Cycles and Chains Problem (CCCCP)

In recent years, there has been studies on the cardinality constrained multi-cycle problems on directed graphs, some of which considered chains co-existing on the same digraph whilst others did not. These studies were inspired by the optimal matching of kidneys known as the Kidney Exchange Problem (KEP). In a KEP, a vertex on the digraph represents a donor-patient pair who are related, though the kidney of the donor is incompatible to the patient. When there are multiple such incompatible pairs in the kidney exchange pool, the kidney of the donor of one incompatible pair may in fact be compatible to the patient of another incompatible pair. If Donor A’s kidney is suitable for Patient B, and vice versa, then there will be arcs in both directions between Vertex A to Vertex B. Such exchanges form a 2-cycle. There may also be cycles involving 3 or more vertices. As all exchanges in a kidney exchange cycle must take place simultaneously, (otherwise a donor can drop out from the program once his/her partner has received a kidney from another donor), due to logistic and human resource reasons, only a limited number of kidney exchanges can occur simultaneously, hence the cardinality of these cycles are constrained. In recent years, kidney exchange programs around the world have altruistic donors in the pool. A sequence of exchanges that starts from an altruistic donor forms a chain instead of a cycle. We therefore have two underlying combinatorial optimization problems: Cardinality Constrained Multi-cycle Problem (CCMcP) and the Cardinality Constrained Cycles and Chains Problem (CCCCP). The objective of the KEP is either to maximize the number of kidney matches, or to maximize a certain weighted function of kidney matches. In a CCMcP, a vertex can be in at most one cycle whereas in a CCCCP, a vertex can be part of (but in no more than) a cycle or a chain. The cardinality of the cycles are constrained in all studies. The cardinality of the chains, however, are considered unconstrained in some studies, constrained but larger than that of cycles, or the same as that of cycles in others. Although the CCMcP has some similarities to the ATSP- and VRP-family of problems, there is a major difference: strong subtour elimination constraints are mostly invalid for the CCMcP, as we do allow smaller subtours as long as they do not exceed the size limit. The CCCCP has its distinctive feature that allows chains as well as cycles on the same directed graph. Hence, both the CCMcP and the CCCCP are interesting and challenging combinatorial optimization problems in their own rights. Most existing studies focused on solution methodologies, and as far as we aware, there is no polyhedral studies so far. In this paper, we will study the polyhedral structure of the natural arc-based integer programming models of the CCMcP and the CCCCP, both containing exponentially many constraints. We do so to pave the way for studying strong valid cuts we have found that can be applied in a Lagrangean relaxation-based branch-and-bound framework where at each node of the branch-and-bound tree, we may be able to obtain a relaxation that can be solved in polynomial time, with strong valid cuts dualized into the objective function and the dual multipliers optimised by subgradient optimisation.