Accounting for Big City Growth in Low Paid Occupations: Immigration and/or Service Class Consumption

Growth of 'global cities' in the 1980s was supposed to have involved an occupational polarisation, including growth of low paid service jobs. Though held to be untrue for European cities, at the time, some such growth did emerge in London a decade later than first reported for New York. The question is whether there was simply a delay before London conformed to the global city model, or whether another distinct cause was at work in both cases. This paper proposes that the critical factor in both cases was actually an upsurge of immigration from poor countries providing an elastic supply of cheap labour. This hypothesis and its counterpart based on growth in elite jobs are tested econometrically for the British case with regional data spanning 1975-2008, finding some support for both effects, but with immigration from poor countries as the crucial influence in late 1990s London. Keywords: regional labour markets; wages; employment; international migration; consumer demand JEL Codes: J21, J23, F22, R12

Reinventar la metròpoli: Barcelona i el model de la Greater London Authority

La dècada de 1980 va significar un punt i a part per als governs metropolitans. Després de viure una època daurada durant els 60 i 70, la reestructuració del sistema politicoeconòmic va comportar que les estructures de govern metropolità fossin qüestionades i fins i tot suprimides. Quan tot semblava indicar que restarien només com a record, la lògica de competència entre grans ciutats i la necessitat de reinventar-se en base a un desenvolupament sostenible va suposar un inesperat renaixement de la política metropolitana. Si fins aleshores la seva necessitat s'havia justificat bàsicament des d'un punt de vista funcional, seguint pautes tecnòcrates i burocratitzades, la nova metropolítica se centra en la competitivitat i en la sostenibilitat, alhora que posa èmfasi en assajar mètodes de governança. Londres, ciutat que presenta certs paral·lelismes històrics amb Barcelona, ha estat una ciutat pionera i de la seva experiència es pot aprendre per la capital catalana

A new and exact map of Sweden and Norway corrected from the best observations communicated to the Royal Society at London & the Royal Academy at Paris &c.

Kartta leikattu karttakuvaa reunastavan kehyksen ulkorajaa pitkin.

Letter from George Cran regarding a Christian mission in India, 1803.

George Cran was the son of a farmer in the parish of Forgue in Aberdeen Shire, Scotland. He became a member of the church at Huntley, Scotland where his devotion to God inspired him to become a Sunday school teacher. He subsequently became a member of the London Missionary Society. In 1801 he was sent to study at the seminary in Gosport, England where he spent two to three years. His desire was to preach Christ to the “heathens”. Messrs. Ringeltaube, Des Granges and Cran were designated to work in India. No ships for the East India Company would grant passage to missionaries due to the open hostility of the government therefore they set sail from Copenhagen on April 20, 1804 and reached Tranquebar on December 5th, 1805. Cran and Des Granges were designated to supervise the churches in Tinnevelly and they were to begin a mission among the northern Circars. This would have meant that they would have to work in two different places which would have separated them by over 500 miles. The society didn’t seem to be aware of the vast hindrances that the missionaries had to face. Cran and Des Granges decided instead to work in Vizagapatam where they were welcomed by many of the European residents. They conducted English services for which they were paid a monthly salary by the governor. They also conducted services for the natives and opened a school for native children. By November of 1806 a mission house had been built and a “charity” school for Eurasian children was opened. Cran and Des Granges were also diligently studying the native language and they began to translate the Bible into Telugu (spoken by the Hindus who live along the lower basins of the Kistna and Godaveri Rivers). In November of 1808 Cran was almost killed by a fever which left him severely weakened. He was only partially recovered, but accepted an invitation by the general who commanded the local district to accompany him on a journey around the province. The journey proved to be too much for Cran and he died on January 6th, 1809. He is buried at Chicacole, India. He is remembered for his successful work at Vizagapatam and his translation of the Bible. The fact that it was 27 years after the arrival of Cran before a single native was converted attests to the fact that this was a very difficult undertaking. The London Missionary Society was formed in 1795 in England by evangelical Anglicans and nonconformists. It is a non-denominational society and now forms part of the Council for World Mission. with information from The Voice of God to the Churches a Sermon on the Death of George Cran, Augustus Des Granges and Jonathan Brain by David Bogue and The History of the London Missionary Society 1795-1895 by Richard Lovett

Informality in the City: a Theoretical Analysis

This thesis theoretically studies the relationship between the informal sector (both in the labor and the housing market) and the city structure.

Dispersion Experiments in Central London: The 2007 DAPPLE project

In the event of a release of toxic gas in the center of London, the emergency services would need to determine quickly the extent of the area contaminated. The transport of pollutants by turbulent flow within the complex street and building architecture of cities is not straightforward, and we might wonder whether it is at all possible to make a scientifically-reasoned decision. Here we describe recent progress from a major UK project, ‘Dispersion of Air Pollution and its Penetration into the Local Environment’ (DAPPLE, www.dapple.org.uk). In DAPPLE, we focus on the movement of airborne pollutants in cities by developing a greater understanding of atmospheric flow and dispersion within urban street networks. In particular, we carried out full-scale dispersion experiments in central London (UK) during 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008 to address the extent of the dispersion of tracers following their release at street level. These measurements complemented previous studies because (i) our focus was on dispersion within the first kilometer from the source, when most of the material was expected to remain within the street network rather than being mixed into the boundary layer aloft, (ii) measurements were made under a wide variety of meteorological conditions, and (iii) central London represents a European, rather than North American, city geometry. Interpretation of the results from the full-scale experiments was supported by extensive numerical and wind tunnel modeling, which allowed more detailed analysis under idealized and controlled conditions. In this article, we review the full-scale DAPPLE methodologies and show early results from the analysis of the 2007 field campaign data.

Simulations of the London urban heat island

We present simulations of London's meteorology using the Met Office Unified Model with a new, sophisticated surface energy-balance scheme to represent the urban surfaces, called MORUSES. Simulations are performed with the urban surfaces represented and with the urban surfaces replaced with grass in order to calculate the urban increment on the local meteorology. The local urban effects were moderated to some extent by the passage of an onshore flow that propagated up the Thames estuary and across the city, cooling London slightly in the afternoon. Validations of screen-level temperature show encouraging agreement to within 1–2 K, when the urban increment is up to 5 K. The model results are then used to examine factors shaping the spatial and temporal structure of London's atmospheric boundary layer. The simulations reconcile the differences in the temporal evolution of the urban heat island (UHI) shown in various studies and demonstrate that the variation of UHI with time depends strongly on the urban fetch. The UHI at a location downwind of the city centre shows a decrease in UHI during the night, while the UHI at the city centre stays constant. Finally, the UHI at a location upwind of the city centre increases continuously. The magnitude of the UHI by the time of the evening transition increases with urban fetch. The urban increments are largest at night, when the boundary layer is shallow. The boundary layer experiences continued warming after sunset, as the heat from the urban fabric is released, and a weakly convective boundary layer develops across the city. The urban land-use fraction is the dominant control on the spatial structure in the sensible heat flux and the resulting urban increment, although even the weak advection present in this case study is sufficient to advect the peak temperature increments downwind of the most built-up areas. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Rational expectations? Developer behaviour and development cycles in the central London office market

Purpose – Expectations of future market conditions are acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. The purpose of this paper is to study the central London office market from 1987 to 2009 and test for evidence of rational, adaptive and naive expectations. Design/methodology/approach – Two parallel approaches are applied to test for either rational or adaptive/naive expectations: vector auto-regressive (VAR) approach with Granger causality tests and recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts. Findings – Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, the authors do not find evidence of adaptive and naïve expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags between market signal and construction starts vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developer decisions are explained, to a large extent, by contemporaneous and historic conditions in both the City and the West End, but this is more likely to stem from the lengthy design, financing and planning permission processes rather than adaptive or naive expectations. Research limitations/implications – More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of large demand shocks and/or irrational behaviour. Practical implications – Developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. Originality/value – This paper focuses the scholarly debate of real estate cycles on the role of expectations. It is also one of very few spatially disaggregate studies of the subject matter.

Capital market expectations and the London office market

The analysis of office market dynamics has generally concentrated on the impact of underlying fundamental demand and supply variables. This paper takes a slightly different approach to many previous examinations of rental dynamics. Within a Vector-Error-Correction framework the empirical analysis concentrates upon the impact of economic and financial variables on rents in the City of London and West End of London office markets. The impulse response and variance decomposition reveal that while lagged rental values and key demand drivers play a highly important role in the dynamics of rents, financial variables are also influential. Stock market performance not only influences the City of London market but also the West End, whilst the default spread plays an important role in recent years. It is argued that both series incorporate expectations about future economic performance and that this is the basis of their influence upon rental values.

Asymmetric space market adjustment in the London office market

Models of the City of London office market are extended by considering a longer time series of data, covering two cycles, and by explicit modeling of asymmetric rental response to supply and demand model. A long run structural model linking demand for office space, real rental levels and office-based employment is estimated and then rental adjustment processes are modeled using an error correction model framework. Adjustment processes are seen to be asymmetric, dependent both on the direction of the supply and demand shock and on the state of the rental market at the time of the shock. A complete system of equations is estimated: unit shocks produce oscillations but there is a return to a steady equilibrium state in the long run.