Validation of the buildingEXODUS Evacuation Model

In this paper, the buildingEXODUS (V1.1) evacuation model is described and discussed and attempts at qualitative and quantitative model validation are presented. The data sets used for validation are the Stapelfeldt and Milburn House evacuation data. As part of the validation exercise, the sensitivity of the buildingEXODUS predictions to a range of variables is examined, including: occupant drive, occupant location, exit flow capacity, exit size, occupant response times and geometry definition. An important consideration that has been highlighted by this work is that any validation exercise must be scrutinised to identify both the results generated and the considerations and assumptions on which they are based. During the course of the validation exercise, both data sets were found to be less than ideal for the purpose of validating complex evacuation models. However, the buildingEXODUS evacuation model was found to be able to produce reasonable qualitative and quantitative agreement with the experimental data.

Seasonal ITCZ migration dynamically controls the location of the (sub)tropical Atlantic biogeochemical divide

Inorganic nitrogen depletion restricts productivity in much of the low-latitude oceans, generating a selective advantage for diazotrophic organisms capable of fixing atmospheric dinitrogen (N2). However, the abundance and activity of diazotrophs can in turn be controlled by the availability of other potentially limiting nutrients, including phosphorus (P) and iron (Fe). Here we present high-resolution data (∼0.3°) for dissolved iron, aluminum, and inorganic phosphorus that confirm the existence of a sharp north–south biogeochemical boundary in the surface nutrient concentrations of the (sub)tropical Atlantic Ocean. Combining satellite-based precipitation data with results from a previous study, we here demonstrate that wet deposition in the region of the intertropical convergence zone acts as the major dissolved iron source to surface waters. Moreover, corresponding observations of N2 fixation and the distribution of diazotrophic Trichodesmium spp. indicate that movement in the region of elevated dissolved iron as a result of the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone drives a shift in the latitudinal distribution of diazotrophy and corresponding dissolved inorganic phosphorus depletion. These conclusions are consistent with the results of an idealized numerical model of the system. The boundary between the distinct biogeochemical systems of the (sub)tropical Atlantic thus appears to be defined by the diazotrophic response to spatial–temporal variability in external Fe inputs. Consequently, in addition to demonstrating a unique seasonal cycle forced by atmospheric nutrient inputs, we suggest that the underlying biogeochemical mechanisms would likely characterize the response of oligotrophic systems to altered environmental forcing over longer timescales.

The assessment of a global marine ecosystem model on the basis of emergent properties and ecosystem function: a case study with ERSEM

Ecosystem models are often assessed using quantitative metrics of absolute ecosystem state, but these model-data comparisons are disproportionately vulnerable to discrepancies in the location of important circulation features. An alternative method is to demonstrate the models capacity to represent ecosystem function; the emergence of a coherent natural relationship in a simulation indicates that the model may have an appropriate representation of the ecosystem functions that lead to the emergent relationship. Furthermore, as emergent properties are large-scale properties of the system, model validation with emergent properties is possible even when there is very little or no appropriate data for the region under study, or when the hydrodynamic component of the model differs significantly from that observed in nature at the same location and time. A selection of published meta-analyses are used to establish the validity of a complex marine ecosystem model and to demonstrate the power of validation with emergent properties. These relationships include the phytoplankton community structure, the ratio of carbon to chlorophyll in phytoplankton and particulate organic matter, the ratio of particulate organic carbon to particulate organic nitrogen and the stoichiometric balance of the ecosystem. These metrics can also inform aspects of the marine ecosystem model not available from traditional quantitative and qualitative methods. For instance, these emergent properties can be used to validate the design decisions of the model, such as the range of phytoplankton functional types and their behaviour, the stoichiometric flexibility with regards to each nutrient, and the choice of fixed or variable carbon to nitrogen ratios.

A possible model of benzimidazole binding to beta-tubulin disclosed by invoking an inter-domain movement.

Although it is well established that benzimidazole (BZMs) compounds exert their therapeutic effects through binding to helminth beta-tubulin and thus disrupting microtubule-based processes in the parasites, the precise location of the benzimidazole-binding site on the beta-tubulin molecule has yet to be determined. In the present study, we have used previous experimental data as cues to help identify this site. Firstly, benzimidazole resistance has been correlated with a phenylalanine-to-tyrosine substitution at position 200 of Haemonchus contortus beta-tubulin isotype-I. Secondly, site-directed mutagenesis studies, using fungi, have shown that other residues in this region of the protein can influence the interaction of benzimidazoles with beta-tubulin. However, the atomic structure of the alphabeta-tubulin dimer shows that residue 200 and the other implicated residues are buried within the protein. This poses the question: how might benzimidazoles interact with these apparently inaccessible residues? In the present study, we present a mechanism by which those residues generally believed to interact with benzimidazoles may become accessible to the drugs. Furthermore, by docking albendazole-sulphoxide into a modelled H. contortus beta-tubulin molecule we offer a structural explanation for how the mutation conferring benzimidazole resistance in nematodes may act, as well as a possible explanation for the species-specificity of benzimidazole anthelmintics.

Bystander-induced differentiation: a major response to targeted irradiation of a urothelial explant model.

A ureter primary explant technique, using porcine tissue sections was developed to study bystander effects under in vivo like conditions where dividing and differentiated cells are present. Targeted irradiations of ureter tissue fragments were performed with the Gray Cancer Institute charged particle microbeam at a single location (2 microm precision) with 10 3He2+ particles (5 MeV; LET 70 keV/microm). After irradiation the ureter tissue section was incubated for 7 days allowing explant outgrowth to be formed. Differentiation was estimated using antibodies to Uroplakin III, a specific marker of terminal urothelial differentiation. Even although only a single region of the tissue section was targeted, thousands of additional cells were found to undergo bystander-induced differentiation in the explant outgrowth. This resulted in an overall increase in the fraction of differentiated cells from 63.5+/-5.4% to 76.6+/-5.6%. These changes are much greater than that observed for the induction of damage in this model. One interpretation of these results is that in the tissue environment, differentiation is a much more significant response to targeted irradiation and potentially a protective mechanism.

Numerical Investigation of Optimal Pin Actuator Location on a Supersonic Projectile

The flowfield around a supersonic projectile using a pin actuator control method has been predicted using computational fluid dynamics. It has been predicted using both viscous and inviscid methods for a number of positions. Both methods showed that an optimal longitudinal position exists. However, the inviscid model over-predicted the lateral acceleration due to the difference in shock formation around the pin between the two approaches. The optimal location was predicted independent of solver, however the higher-fidelity solver predicted lower achievable lateral accelerations. This is due to the viscous interactions caused by the pin. The effect of projectile orientation has shown that shielding the pin leads to reduced effectiveness due to the wake of the fin enveloping the pin. When the pin is exposed to onset flow, the forces achieved are increased. There is also an increase in the achievable forces and moments with increasing Mach number.

Ginkgolide B and bilobalide block the pore of the 5-HT3 receptor at a location that overlaps the picrotoxin binding site

Extracts from the Ginkgo biloba tree are widely used as herbal medicines, and include bilobalide (BB) and ginkgolides A and B (GA and GB). Here we examine their effects on human 5-HT(3)A and 5-HT(3)AB receptors, and compare these to the effects of the structurally related compounds picrotin (PTN) and picrotoxinin (PXN), the two components of picrotoxin (PTX), a known channel blocker of 5-HT3, nACh and GABA(A) receptors. The compounds inhibited 5-HT-induced responses of 5-HT3 receptors expressed in Xenopus oocytes, with IC50 values of 470 mu M (BB), 730 mu M (GB), 470 mu M (PTN), 11 mu M (PXN) and > 1 mM (GA) in 5-HT(3)A receptors, and 3.1 mM (BB), 3.9 mM (GB), 2.7 mM (PTN), 62 mu M (PXN) and > 1 mM (GA) in 5-HT(3)AB receptors. Radioligand binding on receptors expressed in HEK 293 cells showed none of the compounds displaced the specific 5-HT3 receptor antagonist [H-3]granisetron, confirming that they do not act at the agonist binding site. Inhibition by GB at 5-HT(3)A receptors is weakly use-dependent, and recovery is activity dependent, indicating channel block. To further probe their site of action at 5-HT(3)A receptors, BB and GB were applied alone or in combination with PXN, and the results fitted to a mathematical model; the data revealed partially overlapping sites of action. We conclude that BB and GB block the channel of the 5-HT(3)A receptor. Thus these compounds have comparable, although less potent, behaviour than at some other Cys-loop receptors, demonstrating their actions are conserved across the family. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Implementation of Menter's Transition Model on an Isolated Natural Laminar Flow Nacelle

This study evaluates the implementation of Menter's gamma-Re-theta Transition Model within the CFX12 solver for turbulent transition prediction on a natural laminar flow nacelle. Some challenges associated with this type of modeling have been identified. The computational fluid dynamics transitional flow simulation results are presented for a series of cruise cases with freestream Mach numbers ranging from 0.8 to 0.88, angles of attack from 2 to 0 degrees, and mass flow ratios from 0.60 to 0.75. These were validated with a series of wind-tunnel tests on the nacelle by comparing the predicted and experimental surface pressure distributions and transition locations. A selection of the validation cases are presented in this paper. In all cases, computational fluid dynamics simulations agreed reasonably well with the experiments. The results indicate that Menter's gamma-Re-theta Transition Model is capable of predicting laminar boundary-layer transition to turbulence on a nacelle. Nonetheless, some limitations exist in both the Menter's gamma-Re-theta Transition Model and in the implementation of the computational fluid dynamics model. The implementation of a more comprehensive experimental correlation in Menter's gamma-Re-theta Transition Model, preferably the ones from nacelle experiments, including the effects of compressibility and streamline curvature, is necessary for an accurate transitional flow simulation on a nacelle. In addition, improvements to the computational fluid dynamics model are also suggested, including the consideration of varying distributed surface roughness and an appropriate empirical correction derived from nacelle experimental transition location data.

A model for radiation-induced bystander effects, with allowance for spatial position and the effects of cell turnover

Bystander effects, whereby cells that are not directly exposed to ionizing radiation exhibit adverse biological effects, have been observed in a number of experimental systems. A novel stochastic model of the radiation-induced bystander effect is developed that takes account of spatial location, cell killing and repopulation. The ionizing radiation dose- and time-responses of this model are explored, and it is shown to exhibit pronounced downward curvature in the high dose-rate region, similar to that observed in many experimental systems, reviewed in the paper. It is also shown to predict the augmentation of effect after fractionated delivery of dose that has been observed in certain experimental systems. It is shown that the generally intractable solution of the full stochastic system can be considerably simplified by assumption of pairwise conditional dependence that varies exponentially over time. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Charge Location on the Absorptions and Lifetimes of Protonated Tyrosine Peptides in Vacuo

Nearby charges affect the electronic energy levels of chromophores, with the extent of the effect being determined by the magnitude of the charge and degree of charge-chromophore separation. The molecular configuration dictates the charge chromophore distance. Hence, in this study, we aim to assess how the location of the charge influences the absorption of a set of model protonated and diprotonated peptide ions, and whether spectral differences are large enough to be identified. The studied ions were the dipeptide YK, the tripeptide KYK (Y = tyrosine; K = lysine) and their complexes with 18-crown-6-ether (CE). The CE targets the ammonium group by forming internal ionic hydrogen bonds and limits the folding of the peptide. In the tripeptide, the distance between the chromophore and the backbone ammonium is enlarged relative to that in the dipeptide. Experiments were performed in an electrostatic ion storage ring using a tunable laser system, and action spectra based on lifetime measurements were obtained in the range from 210 to 310 nm. The spectra are all quite similar though there seems to be some changes in the absorption band between 210 and 250 nm, while in the lower energy band all ions had a maximum absorption at similar to 275 nm. Lifetimes after photoexcitation were found to shorten upon protonation and lengthen upon CE complexation, in accordance with the increased number of degrees of freedom and an increase in activation energies for dissociation as the mobile proton model is no longer operative.

Animal foraging from an individual perspective: an object orientated model

A model system, HOOFS (Hierarchical Object Orientated Foraging Simulator), has been developed to study foraging by animals in a complex environment. The model is implemented using an individual-based object-orientated structure. Different species of animals inherit their general properties from a generic animal object which inherits from the basic dynamic object class. Each dynamic object is a separate program thread under the control of a central scheduler. The environment is described as a map of small hexagonal patches, each with their own level of resources and a patch-specific rate of resource replenishment. Each group of seven patches (0th order) is grouped into a Ist order super-patch with seven nth order super-patches making up a n + 1th order super-patch for n up to a specified value. At any time each animal is associated with a single patch. Patch choice is made by combining the information on the resources available within different order patches and super-patches along with information on the spatial location of other animals. The degree of sociality of an animal is defined in terms of optimal spacing from other animals and by the weighting of patch choice based on social factors relative to that based on food availability. Information, available to each animal, about patch resources diminishes with distance from that patch. The model has been used to demonstrate that social interactions can constrain patch choice and result in a short-term reduction of intake and a greater degree of variability in the level of resources in patches. We used the model to show that the effect of this variability on the animal's intake depends on the pattern of patch replenishment. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.</p>

A Hydrodynamic Modelling Framework for Strangford Lough Part 1: Tidal Model

Hydrodynamic models are a powerful tool that can be used by a wide range of end users to assist in predicting the effects of both physical and biological processes on local environmental conditions. This paper describes the development of a tidal model for Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen, as well as the UK’s third Marine Nature Reserve. Using MIKE 21 modelling software, the development, calibration and performance of the modelare described in detail. Strangford Lough has a complex flow pattern with high flows through the Narrows (~3.5 m/s) linking the main body of the Lough to the Irish Sea and intricate flow patterns around the numerous islands. With the aid of good quality tidal and current data obtained throughout the Lough during the model development, the surface elevation and current magnitude between the observed and numerical model were almost identical with model skill >0.98 and >0.84 respectively. The applicability of the model is such that it can be used as an important tool for the prediction of important ecological processes as well as engineering applications within Strangford Lough.

Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

Palynological perspectives on vegetation survey: a critical step for model-based reconstruction of Quaternary land cover

1. Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation distribution and abundance from sedimentary pollen records provides an important baseline for understanding long term ecosystem dynamics and for the calibration of earth system process models such as regional-scale climate models, widely used to predict future environmental change. Most current approaches assume that the amount of pollen produced by each vegetation type, usually expressed as a relative pollen productivity term, is constant in space and time.
2. Estimates of relative pollen productivity can be extracted from extended R-value analysis (Parsons and Prentice, 1981) using comparisons between pollen assemblages deposited into sedimentary contexts, such as moss polsters, and measurements of the present day vegetation cover around the sampled location. Vegetation survey method has been shown to have a profound effect on estimates of model parameters (Bunting and Hjelle, 2010), therefore a standard method is an essential pre-requisite for testing some of the key assumptions of pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation; such as the assumption that relative pollen productivity is effectively constant in space and time within a region or biome.
3. This paper systematically reviews the assumptions and methodology underlying current models of pollen dispersal and deposition, and thereby identifies the key characteristics of an effective vegetation survey method for estimating relative pollen productivity in a range of landscape contexts.
4. It then presents the methodology used in a current research project, developed during a practitioner workshop. The method selected is pragmatic, designed to be replicable by different research groups, usable in a wide range of habitats, and requiring minimum effort to collect adequate data for model calibration rather than representing some ideal or required approach. Using this common methodology will allow project members to collect multiple measurements of relative pollen productivity for major plant taxa from several northern European locations in order to test the assumption of uniformity of these values within the climatic range of the main taxa recorded in pollen records from the region.

Lacustrine flow (divers, side scan sonar, hydrogeology, water penetrating radar) used to understand the location of a drowned person

An unusual application of hydrological understanding to a police search is described. The lacustrine search for a missing person provided reports of bottom-water currents in the lake and contradictory indications from cadaver dogs. A hydrological model of the area was developed using pre-existing information from side scan sonar, a desktop hydrogeological study and deployment of water penetrating radar (WPR). These provided a hydrological theory for the initial search involving subaqueous groundwater flow, focused on an area of bedrock surrounded by sediment, on the lake floor. The work shows the value a hydrological explanation has to a police search operation (equally to search and rescue). With hindsight, the desktop study should have preceded the search, allowing better understanding of water conditions. The ultimate reason for lacustrine flow in this location is still not proven, but the hydrological model explained the problems encountered in the initial search.