Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Numerical methods for ill-posed, linear problems

A means of assessing the effectiveness of methods used in the numerical solution of various linear ill-posed problems is outlined. Two methods: Tikhonov' s method of regularization and the quasireversibility method of Lattès and Lions are appraised from this point of view.

In the former method, Tikhonov provides a useful means for incorporating a constraint into numerical algorithms. The analysis suggests that the approach can be generalized to embody constraints other than those employed by Tikhonov. This is effected and the general "T-method" is the result.

A T-method is used on an extended version of the backwards heat equation with spatially variable coefficients. Numerical computations based upon it are performed.

The statistical method developed by Franklin is shown to have an interpretation as a T-method. This interpretation, although somewhat loose, does explain some empirical convergence properties which are difficult to pin down via a purely statistical argument.

Some approximate solutions of dynamic problems in the linear theory of thin elastic shells

Some aspects of wave propagation in thin elastic shells are considered. The governing equations are derived by a method which makes their relationship to the exact equations of linear elasticity quite clear. Finite wave propagation speeds are ensured by the inclusion of the appropriate physical effects.

The problem of a constant pressure front moving with constant velocity along a semi-infinite circular cylindrical shell is studied. The behavior of the solution immediately under the leading wave is found, as well as the short time solution behind the characteristic wavefronts. The main long time disturbance is found to travel with the velocity of very long longitudinal waves in a bar and an expression for this part of the solution is given.

When a constant moment is applied to the lip of an open spherical shell, there is an interesting effect due to the focusing of the waves. This phenomenon is studied and an expression is derived for the wavefront behavior for the first passage of the leading wave and its first reflection.

For the two problems mentioned, the method used involves reducing the governing partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations by means of a Laplace transform in time. The information sought is then extracted by doing the appropriate asymptotic expansion with the Laplace variable as parameter.

On the uniqueness of singular solutions to boundary-initial value problems in linear elastodynamics

This investigation deals with certain generalizations of the classical uniqueness theorem for the second boundary-initial value problem in the linearized dynamical theory of not necessarily homogeneous nor isotropic elastic solids. First, the regularity assumptions underlying the foregoing theorem are relaxed by admitting stress fields with suitably restricted finite jump discontinuities. Such singularities are familiar from known solutions to dynamical elasticity problems involving discontinuous surface tractions or non-matching boundary and initial conditions. The proof of the appropriate uniqueness theorem given here rests on a generalization of the usual energy identity to the class of singular elastodynamic fields under consideration.

Following this extension of the conventional uniqueness theorem, we turn to a further relaxation of the customary smoothness hypotheses and allow the displacement field to be differentiable merely in a generalized sense, thereby admitting stress fields with square-integrable unbounded local singularities, such as those encountered in the presence of focusing of elastic waves. A statement of the traction problem applicable in these pathological circumstances necessitates the introduction of "weak solutions'' to the field equations that are accompanied by correspondingly weakened boundary and initial conditions. A uniqueness theorem pertaining to this weak formulation is then proved through an adaptation of an argument used by O. Ladyzhenskaya in connection with the first boundary-initial value problem for a second-order hyperbolic equation in a single dependent variable. Moreover, the second uniqueness theorem thus obtained contains, as a special case, a slight modification of the previously established uniqueness theorem covering solutions that exhibit only finite stress-discontinuities.

Compensation of reflectance response deviations of guided-mode resonant filters induced by overetching fabrication

Unless the fabrication error control is well treated, it easily causes overetched fabrication errors, which causes the resonant peak value deviation during the fabrication process of guided-mode resonant filters (GMRFs). Hence, the fabrication error control becomes a key point for improving the performance of GMRF. We find that, within the range of the groove depth from 93 to 105 nm, the relationship between the overetched error and the resonant peak value deviation is nearly linear, which means that we can compensate the reflectance response deviation and reduce the resonant peak value deviation by the method of covering the layer film on the GMRF. Simulation results show that the deviation is compensated perfectly by this way. (C) 2008 Optical Society of America

Robust variable horizon MPC with move blocking

This paper introduces a new formulation of variable horizon model predictive control (VH-MPC) that utilises move blocking for reducing computational complexity. Various results pertaining to move blocking are derived, following which, a generalised blocked VH-MPC controller is formulated for linear discrete-time systems. Robustness to bounded disturbances is ensured through the use of tightened constraints. The resulting time-varying control scheme is shown to guarantee robust recursive feasibility and finite-time completion. An example is then presented for a particular choice of blocking regime, as would be applicable to vehicle manœuvring problems. Simulations demonstrate the efficacy of the formulation. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal constraint tightening policies for robust variable horizon model predictive control

This paper develops a technique for improving the region of attraction of a robust variable horizon model predictive controller. It considers a constrained discrete-time linear system acted upon by a bounded, but unknown time-varying state disturbance. Using constraint tightening for robustness, it is shown how the tightening policy, parameterised as direct feedback on the disturbance, can be optimised to increase the volume of an inner approximation to the controller's true region of attraction. Numerical examples demonstrate the benefits of the policy in increasing region of attraction volume and decreasing the maximum prediction horizon length. © 2012 IEEE.

Emittance estimation by an ion optical element with variable focusing strength and a viewing target

The emittance of an extracted ion beam can be estimated to first order by a series of three linear independent profile measurements. This estimation is restricted to the evaluation of an upper limit of the emittance value for a homogeneous, nonfilamented beam. The beam is assumed to be round, respectively elliptical, without any structure of the intensity distribution, no space charge has been assumed for the drifting beam, and the optics is assumed to be linear. Instead of using three different drift sections, a linear focusing element with three different focusing strengths can be used. Plotting the beam radius as function of focusing strength, three independent solutions can be used to calculate the Twiss parameters alpha, beta, and gamma and furthermore the emittance epsilon. Here we describe the measurements which have been performed with the SECRAL ion source at Institute of Modern Physics Lanzhou.

Rossby waves with linear topography in barotropic fluids

Rossby waves are the most important waves in the atmosphere and ocean, and are parts of a large-scale system in fluid. The theory and observation show that, they satisfy quasi-geostrophic and quasi-static equilibrium approximations. In this paper, solitary Rossby waves induced by linear topography in barotropic fluids with a shear flow are studied. In order to simplify the problem, the topography is taken as a linear function of latitude variable y, then employing a weakly nonlinear method and a perturbation method, a KdV (Korteweg-de Vries) equation describing evolution of the amplitude of solitary Rossby waves induced by linear topography is derived. The results show that the variation of linear topography can induce the solitary Rossby waves in barotropic fluids with a shear flow, and extend the classical geophysical theory of fluid dynamics.

Statistical Properties of Single and Competing Non-Linear Fast-Slow Oscillators in Noise

Statistical properties offast-slow Ellias-Grossberg oscillators are studied in response to deterministic and noisy inputs. Oscillatory responses remain stable in noise due to the slow inhibitory variable, which establishes an adaptation level that centers the oscillatory responses of the fast excitatory variable to deterministic and noisy inputs. Competitive interactions between oscillators improve the stability in noise. Although individual oscillation amplitudes decrease with input amplitude, the average to'tal activity increases with input amplitude, thereby suggesting that oscillator output is evaluated by a slow process at downstream network sites.

Bayesian variable selection in structured high-dimensional covariate spaces with applications in genomics

We consider the problem of variable selection in regression modeling in high-dimensional spaces where there is known structure among the covariates. This is an unconventional variable selection problem for two reasons: (1) The dimension of the covariate space is comparable, and often much larger, than the number of subjects in the study, and (2) the covariate space is highly structured, and in some cases it is desirable to incorporate this structural information in to the model building process. We approach this problem through the Bayesian variable selection framework, where we assume that the covariates lie on an undirected graph and formulate an Ising prior on the model space for incorporating structural information. Certain computational and statistical problems arise that are unique to such high-dimensional, structured settings, the most interesting being the phenomenon of phase transitions. We propose theoretical and computational schemes to mitigate these problems. We illustrate our methods on two different graph structures: the linear chain and the regular graph of degree k. Finally, we use our methods to study a specific application in genomics: the modeling of transcription factor binding sites in DNA sequences. © 2010 American Statistical Association.

Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

The Application of an Exogenous Linear and Radial Electrical Field to an In Vitro Chronic Diabetic Ulcer Model for Evaluation as a Potential Treatment

Chronic diabetic ulcers affect approximately 15% of patients with diabetes worldwide. Currently, applied electric fields are being investigated as a reliable and cost-effective treatment. This in vitro study aimed to determine the effects of a constant and spatially variable electric field on three factors: endothelial cell migration, proliferation, and angiogenic gene expression. Results for a constant electric field of 0.01 V demonstrated that migration at short time points increased 20-fold and proliferation at long time points increased by a factor of 1.40. Results for a spatially variable electric field did not increase directional migration, but increased proliferation by a factor of 1.39 and by a factor of 1.55 after application of 1.00 V and 0.01 V, respectively. Both constant and spatially variable applied fields increased angiogenic gene expression. Future research that explores a narrower range of intensity levels may more clearly identify the optimal design specifications of a spatially variable electric field.

Experimentally realizable characterizations of continuous- variable Gaussian states

Measures of entanglement, fidelity, and purity are basic yardsticks in quantum-information processing. We propose how to implement these measures using linear devices and homodyne detectors for continuous-variable Gaussian states. In particular, the test of entanglement becomes simple with some prior knowledge that is relevant to current experiments.