Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Child sexual abuse and access to justice for civil claims: Time to reform the Limitation of Actions Act 1974 (Qld)

In 2015, Victoria passed laws removing the time limit in which a survivor of child sexual abuse can commence a civil claim for personal injury. The law applies also to physical abuse, and to psychological injury arising from those forms of abuse. In 2016, New South Wales made almost identical legal reforms. These reforms were partly motivated by the recommendations of inquiries into institutional child abuse. Of particular relevance is that the Australian Royal Commission Into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse recommended in 2015 that all States and Territories remove their time limits for civil claims. This presentation explores the problems with standard time limits when applied to child sexual abuse cases (whether occurring within or beyond institutions), the scientific, ethical and legal justifications for lifting the time limits, and solutions for future law reform.

Chronopotentiometry with power-law perturbation functions at an expanding plane electrode with and without a preceding blank period for systems with a coupled first-order homogeneous chemical reaction

The systems formalism is used to obtain the interfacial concentration transients for power-law current input at an expanding plane electrode. The explicit results for the concentration transients obtained here pertain to arbitrary homogeneous reaction schemes coupled to the oxidant and reductant of a single charge-transfer step and the power-law form without and with a preceding blank period (for two types of power-law current profile, say, (i) I(t) = I0(t−t0)q for t greater-or-equal, slanted t0, I(t) = 0 for t < t0; and (ii) I(t) = I0tq for t greater-or-equal, slanted t0, I(t) = 0 for t < t0). Finally the potential transients are obtained using Padé approximants. The results of Galvez et al. (for E, CE, EC, aC) (J. Electroanal. Chem., 132 (1982) 15; 146 (1983) 221, 233, 243), Molina et al. (for E) (J. Electroanal. Chem., 227 (1987) 1 and Kies (for E) (J. Electroanal. Chem., 45 (1973) 71) are obtained as special cases.

Noninvasive biomarkers for early smoking related lung disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a slowly progressive disease characterized by airway inflammation and largely irreversible airflow limitation. One major risk factor for COPD is cigarette smoking. Since the inflammatory process starts many years prior to the onset of clinical symptoms and still continues after smoking cessation, there is an urgent need to find simple non-invasive biomarkers that can be used in the early diagnosis of COPD and which could help in predicting the disease progression. The first aim of the present study was to evaluate the involvement of different oxidative/nitrosative stress markers, matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their tissue inhibitor-1 (TIMP-1) in smokers and in COPD. Elevated numbers of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), nitrotyrosine, myeloperoxidase (MPO) and 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (4-HNE) positive cells and increased levels of 8-isoprostane and lactoferrin were found in sputum of non-symptomatic smokers compared to non-smokers, and especially in subjects with stable mild to moderate COPD, and they correlated with the severity of airway obstruction. This suggests that an increased oxidant burden exists already in the airways of smokers with normal lung function values. However, none of these markers could differentiate healthy smokers from symptomatic smokers with normal lung function values i.e. those individuals who are at risk of developing COPD. In contrast what is known about asthma exhaled nitric oxide (FENO) was lower in smokers than in non-smokers, the reduced FENO value was significantly associated with neutrophilic inflammation and the elevated oxidant burden (positive cells for iNOS, nitrotyrosine and MPO). The levels of sputum MMP-8 and plasma MMP-12 appeared to differentiate subjects who have a risk for COPD development but these finding require further investigations. The levels of all studied MMPs correlated with the numbers of neutrophils, and MMP-8 and MMP-9 with markers of neutrophil activation (MPO, lactoferrin) suggesting that especially neutrophil derived oxidants may stimulate the tissue destructive MMPs already in lungs of smokers who are not yet experiencing any airflow limitation. When investigating the role of neutrophil proteases (neutrophil elastase, MMP-8, MMP-9) during COPD exacerbation and its recovery period, we found that levels of all these proteases were increased in sputum of patients with COPD exacerbation as compared to stable COPD and controls, and decreased during the one-month recovery period, giving evidence for a role of these enzymes in COPD exacerbations. In the last study, the effects of subject`s age and smoking habits were evaluated on the plasma levels of surfactant protein A (SP-A), SP-D, MMP-9 and TIMP-1. Long-term smoking increased the levels of all of these proteins. SP-A most clearly correlated with age, pack years and lung function decline (FEV1/FVC), and based on the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, SP-A was the best marker for discriminating subjects with COPD from controls. In conclusion, these findings support the hypothesis that especially neutrophil derived oxidants may activate MMPs and induce an active remodeling process already in the lungs of smokers with normal lung function values. The marked increase of sputum levels of neutrophil proteases in smokers, stable COPD and/or during its exacerbations suggest that these enzymes play a role in the development and progression of COPD. Based on the comparison of various biomarkers, SP-A can be proposed to serve as sensitive biomarker in COPD development.

Luteal-phase defect induced by deprivation of FSH at a specific period of the follicular phase prevents pregnancy in the bonnet monkey (Macaca radiata)

Female bonnet monkeys were injected i.v. with 25 µl antiserum to FSH on Days 5, 6 or 7 of the cycle: the length of the luteal phase was shortened but there was no alteration in cycle length. Proven fertile females (N = 6) were caged throughout the period of the experiment (6 cycles) with proven fertile males and treated with 25 µl FSH antiserum on Day 7 of each of 3 successive cycles. Out of 18 cycle exposures during the treatment phase, 17 were ovulatory, but no pregnancies occurred. In the post-treatment phase, 5 monkeys became pregnant within 3 cycle exposures. These results show that it is possible to render female monkeys infertile by creating luteal insufficiency and this can be achieved repeatedly in a reproducible manner by depriving the cyclic females of FSH support on Day 7 of consecutive cycles.

Evaluation of relative growth limitation due to depletion of glucose and oxygen during fungal growth on a spherical solid particle

A mathematical model for glucose and oxygen consumption, and cell growth during fungal growth on a single solid particle is developed. A moving biofilm is assumed to be present on the surface of the solid particle. Initially only glucose is assumed to be growth limiting and later oxygen transferred from the gas phase on to the biofilm is also assumed to be growth limiting. Glucose is found to be severely growth limiting when assumed to be the only growth limiting factor and its limiting levels far less severe when oxygen limitation is also included. The objective of the model is to gain a better understanding of the mass transfer and relative growth limiting characteristics of glucose and oxygen in fungal growth systems. The results obtained from the model proposed here will be the subject of future work.

Secretion of endocrine signals by the primate embryo during the peri-implantation period

Development of preimplantation embryos and blastocyst implantation are critical early events in the establishment of pregnancy. In primates, embryonic signals, secreted during the peri-implantation period, are believed to play a major role in the regulation of embryonic differentiation and implantation. However, only limited progress has been made in the molecular and functional characterization of embryonic signals, partly due to severe paucity of primate embryos and the lack of optimal culture conditions to obtain viable embryo development. Two embryonic (endocrine) secretions, i.e. chorionic gonadotrophin (CG) and gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH) are being studied. This article reviews the current status of knowledge on the recovery and culture of embryos, their secretion of CG, GnRH and other potential endocrine signals and their regulation and physiological role(s) during the peri-implantation period in primates, including humans.

Geoarchaeological Evidence of a Chola-Period Tsunami from an Ancient Port at Kaveripattinam on the Southeastern Coast of India

Literature of the ancient Chola Dynasty (A.D. 9th-11th centuries) of South India and recent archaeological excavations allude to a sea flood that crippled the ancient port at Kaveripattinam, a trading hub for Southeast Asia, and probably affected the entire South Indian coast, analogous to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami impact. We present sedimentary evidence from an archaeological site to validate the textual references to this early medieval event. A sandy layer showing bed forms representing high-energy conditions, possibly generated by a seaborne wave, was identified at the Kaveripattinam coast of Tamil Nadu, South India. Its sedimentary characteristics include hummocky cross-stratification, convolute lamination with heavy minerals, rip-up clasts, an erosional contact with the underlying mud bed, and a landward thinning geometry. Admixed with 1000-year-old Chola period artifacts, it provided an optically stimulated luminescence age of 1091 perpendicular to 66 yr and a thermoluminescence age of 993 perpendicular to 73 yr for the embedded pottery sherds. The dates of these proxies converge around 1000 yr B. P., correlative of an ancient tsunami reported from elsewhere along the Indian Ocean coasts. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An Accurate Fractional Period Delay Generation System

An all-digital technique is proposed for generating an accurate delay irrespective of the inaccuracies of a controllable delay line. A subsampling technique-based delay measurement unit (DMU) capable of measuring delays accurately for the full period range is used as the feedback element to build accurate fractional period delays based on input digital control bits. The proposed delay generation system periodically measures and corrects the error and maintains it at the minimum value without requiring any special calibration phase. Up to 40x improvement in accuracy is demonstrated for a commercial programmable delay generator chip. The time-precision trade-off feature of the DMU is utilized to reduce the locking time. Loop dynamics are adjusted to stabilize the delay after the minimum error is achieved, thus avoiding additional jitter. Measurement results from a high-end oscilloscope also validate the effectiveness of the proposed system in improving accuracy.

Synchronization of globally coupled two-state stochastic oscillators with a state-dependent refractory period

We present a model of identical coupled two-state stochastic units, each of which in isolation is governed by a fixed refractory period. The nonlinear coupling between units directly affects the refractory period, which now depends on the global state of the system and can therefore itself become time dependent. At weak coupling the array settles into a quiescent stationary state. Increasing coupling strength leads to a saddle node bifurcation, beyond which the quiescent state coexists with a stable limit cycle of nonlinear coherent oscillations. We explicitly determine the critical coupling constant for this transition.

Influence limitation in multi-campaign social networks: A Shapley value based approach

We investigate the problem of influence limitation in the presence of competing campaigns in a social network. Given a negative campaign which starts propagating from a specified source and a positive/counter campaign that is initiated, after a certain time delay, to limit the the influence or spread of misinformation by the negative campaign, we are interested in finding the top k influential nodes at which the positive campaign may be triggered. This problem has numerous applications in situations such as limiting the propagation of rumor, arresting the spread of virus through inoculation, initiating a counter-campaign against malicious propaganda, etc. The influence function for the generic influence limitation problem is non-submodular. Restricted versions of the influence limitation problem, reported in the literature, assume submodularity of the influence function and do not capture the problem in a realistic setting. In this paper, we propose a novel computational approach for the influence limitation problem based on Shapley value, a solution concept in cooperative game theory. Our approach works equally effectively for both submodular and non-submodular influence functions. Experiments on standard real world social network datasets reveal that the proposed approach outperforms existing heuristics in the literature. As a non-trivial extension, we also address the problem of influence limitation in the presence of multiple competing campaigns.

Fabrication and characterization of sub 100 nm period polymer gratings for photonics applications

We report on the fabrication of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) nanogratings on silicon (Si) and glass substrates using electron beam lithography technique. Various aspects of proximity corrections using Monte Carlo simulation have been discussed. The fabrication process parameters such as proximity gap of exposure, exposure dosage and developing conditions have been optimized for high-density PMMA nanogratings structure on Si and glass substrates. Electron beam exposure is adjusted in such a way that PMMA acts as a negative tone resist and at the same time resolution loss due to proximity effect is minimum. Both reflection and transmission-type, nanometre period gratings have been fabricated and their diffraction characteristics are evaluated.