A rotação partidária em Portugal : a aprendizagem da alternância política (c. 1860-1890)

Tese de doutoramento, História (História Contemporânea), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Letras, 2016

Croatia: accession negotiations with the EU overshadowed by parliamentary elections. OSW Commentary No. 48, 2011-02-29

In 2011 Croatia entered the final stage of its accession negotiations with the EU. The completion of these negotiations will probably coincide with the parliamentary elections which should be held in November or December this year. The elections are likely to bring about a change of government, as public support for Jadranka Kosor's cabinet and her party, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has been declining; the left-wing opposition is likely to take power. Therefore, the government’s main goal is to complete the accession negotiations in the first half of the year, in order to sign the accession treaty and hold the EU membership referendum before the parliamentary elections. The HDZ believes that only the successful completion of the accession negotiations could increase its chances of a good result in the upcoming elections. At the same time, fearing a further fall in support, the government will avoid any decisions and reforms that would be controversial for the public, especially in the sphere of the economy; such decisions could also increase Euroscepticism among the Croatian public, and result in the rejection of EU accession in the referendum. The government in Zagreb hopes that the currently implemented anti-corruption strategy and reform of the judiciary, as well as the advanced process of adaptation to EU conditions, will be enough to complete the negotiations. This strategy has a serious chance of success, considering that there is considerable support for Croatia's membership among the EU countries and institutions. Another reason is that further prolongation of the negotiations could aggravate hostility towards the EU among the Croatian public, and would be a bad sign for other Balkan states with membership aspirations. However, subordinating Croatian policies to the completion of negotiations in the first half of the year could prove to be adverse for Croatia itself in the longer term, as it would put off the necessary structural reforms.

Slovakia: the Eurogroup’s enfant terrible. OSW Commentary No. 63, 2011-10-14

When Slovakia’s parliament rejected the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) reform on 11 October it undermined Slovakia’s reputation as a credible partner within the EU. Moreover, Prime Minister Iveta Radicova combined the vote on the strengthening of the EFSF – a key anti-crisis mechanism in the Eurozone – with a vote of confidence for her cabinet. This eventually led to the collapse of the government. Before Slovakia’s decision, the strengthening of the EFSF had been endorsed by the national parliaments of all the eurozone countries. Slovakia, which had opted to be the last one to carry out the ratification procedure, adopted the EFSF reform only in a re-vote on 13 October, due to the support of the opposition left-wing party. However, problems with ratification have cast a shadow over the achievements of Slovakia which as one of the freshest members of the eurozone had been actively seeking to influence the creation of EU mechanisms for dealing with the debt crisis. For the past eighteen months the Slovak government, formed by conservative and liberal parties, has consistently called for the controlled bankruptcy of Greece, a tightening of the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact, and for the private sector’s participation in financing the rescue packages for indebted states. It was in part down to Slovakia that these proposals, previously regarded as extreme, were introduced into the mainstream EU debate. The constructive position presented by Slovakia’s diplomacy in recent months has brought Bratislava tangible results, such as the reduction of its contribution to the permanent anti-crisis fund, the European Stabilisation Mechanism (ESM). Thus Slovakia, which adopted the single currency on 1 January 2009, has become an informal spokesman for the new, poorer members of the eurozone.

A Greek way out? CEPS Commentary, 5 February 2015

In his analysis of the basic compromise that is emerging between the new left-wing government of Greece and its European partners, Daniel Gros emphasises that the key element will be how the real problem, namely liquidity, is dealt with.

Prime Minister Fico’s Russian card. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER NUMBER 175/01.07.2015

Since the beginning of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, the position of Slovakia’s left-wing government towards Russia has been ambiguous. Bratislava has accepted the EU sanctions targeting Russia and the plan for strengthening NATO’s eastern flank. At the same time, however, Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government has maintained close political relations with the Kremlin. It has called for the intensification of Slovak-Russian economic relations and has repeatedly criticised the sanctions, speaking in tandem with Russian propaganda in so doing. Slovakia’s Prime Minister is hoping that by playing the role of one of the leaders in the EU and NATO who are most willing to cooperate with Russia, he will gain economic benefits and win votes in next spring’s upcoming parliamentary elections. Despite numerous pro-Russian gestures, Slovakia has been limiting the number of areas in which Moscow could exert pressure on Bratislava. As it strives to become independent of Russia, Slovakia has ensured possible alternative fuel supplies for itself. Moreover, it has been gradually replacing Russian-made military equipment with equipment made in the West. The Slovak government does intend to develop the country’s cooperation with Russia, including in strategic areas involving supplies and transit of oil and gas, as well as supplies of nuclear fuel. Nevertheless, it has been making efforts to gain easy access to an alternative source of supplies in each of these areas. Beset by crises, Russia has ever fewer economic cooperation opportunities to offer Slovakia, and Slovak businesses operating on the Russian market have to take into account the growing risk of insolvency of local contractors. To a great extent, therefore, Slovak-Russian relations have been reduced to rhetorical statements confirming the desire for closer cooperation, and to visions of joint projects accompanied by an ever shorter list of feasible cooperation initiatives.

The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

Reclaiming Community? From Welfare Society to Welfare State in Australian Catholic Social Thought

Influenced by both conservative and left wing communitarian thinking, current debate about welfare governance in Australia reflects an inflated evaluation of the potential role of the third sector or civil society organisations in the production fo welfare. This paper gives an overview of twentieth century Australian Catholics social thinking about state, market and civil society relations in the production of welfare. It highlights the neglected, historical role of the Catholic Church in promoting a 'welfare society' over a 'welfare state' in Australia. It points to the reasons for the Church's later embrace of the welfare state and suggests that these reasons should make us deeply sceptical of the current communitarian fad.

Critical health psychology - Who benefits?

This commentary deals with two issues raised by Hepworth (this issue). Concerning definitions, it argues that critical health psychology needs to be more explicit in defining itself as politically left-wing, and that its central defining characteristic should be that it is research and practice which aims primarily to benefit the participants, regardless of any specific method or epistemology. Concerning the value of critical health psychology, it argues that work which has improved health on a global scale and which aims to reduce inequities is being done, but not by critical psychologists, and suggests a need for more action and less rhetoric.

BRASIL DE FATO: TRAJETÓRIA, CONTRADIÇÕES E PERSPECTIVAS DE UM JORNAL POPULAR ALTERNATIVO

Pesquisa sobre o semanário de esquerda Brasil de Fato, construído por um coletivo de dirigentes de movimentos sociais e representantes de organizações da sociedade civil, jornalistas, advogados e artistas, identificados politicamente e reunidos a partir de uma proposta apresentada pelo Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra. Lançado em janeiro de 2003, com a perspectiva de se tornar um meio de comunicação de massas, completou seis anos de existência resistindo às adversidades. O objetivo central é analisar o processo de construção e consolidação deste jornal popular-alternativo desde a formulação de seu projeto. São resgatados os caminhos percorridos para compreender não só as dificuldades inerentes à manutenção de um projeto com este perfil, mas também para analisar as contradições internas e externas que causaram as transformações em sua proposta original. A metodologia utilizada para este fim consistiu em pesquisa bibliográfica, entrevistas semi-estruturadas com lideranças e análise de conteúdo. Concluiu-se que, apesar de o jornal ter enfrentado uma série de condições adversas que justificam o não cumprimento de sua proposta original, o caráter de jornal de movimentos sociais já estava presente no Brasil de Fato desde a sua formação, principalmente no que tange as concepções do MST para o jornal.(AU)

Past historic in obituaries: chronicle of a death foretold

The French Past Historic (passé simple: PS), as a perfective past, is ideally suited to the obituary genre narrating the highlights of a life in chronological order. However, 20th century linguists have claimed that this tense has become obsolete. It is, therefore, worth exploring the presence of PS in obituaries. This paper explores three types of variation (diachronic, diastratic and diatopic) on a corpus of diachronic 20th century sources, and contemporary Parisian and regional newspapers. The study has noticed a diachronic diminution of the quantitative use of PS and a lesser decline of its functions as a foregrounded tense, and greater vitality in Western and Southern papers. However the geographical factor was less influential than the distribution. The readership may prove decisive as we have seen the most productive uses in the most conservative papers, the most formulaic in the left-wing paper, and the least developed in the populist paper.

Ireland and immigration: explaining the absence of the far right

Garner seeks to explain the absence of far-right political formations in the history of the Republic of Ireland, especially in relation to immigration. He argues that the ‘mainstream’ nationalist parties have implemented a racialized governance of Ireland via the issue of citizenship (in the referendum of 2004). While hegemonic ideas on the racial purity of indigenous populations and the highly ambivalent attitudes and policies on immigration pursued over the last decade are characteristic of a broader European trend, this has not, in the Republic, been accompanied by meaningful far-right political mobilization. Ireland has frequently been seen as sui generis in political terms, and indeed emerges in some ways as a counter-case: increasing hostility towards Others has been identified in the midst of rapid economic growth and political stability. A variety of issues related to the country’s political development have given rise to an especially small left-wing vote, a nationalist centre ground and longlasting domination by a single populist party, Fianna Fa´ il. This party has been partnered in government since 1997 by a free-market party, the Progressive Democrats, who have contributed to Ireland’s movement towards neo-liberal policies and a highly functional approach to immigration. The transition from country of emigration to country of immigration has thus taken place against an ideological backdrop in which the imperatives of labour demand and consolidating domestic support for reform have made an uneasy match, resulting in the racialization of Irishness. The state has, however, amended the Constitution in order to qualify jus soli citizenship entitlement in the case of particular categories of people: those whose parents are not Irish nationals. The significant stakes of these changes are analysed in the context of state responses to Eire’s transition to a country of immigration, and the role of nationalist-populism in the country’s political culture.

An enigma still: Poujadism fifty years on

Few names resonate more loudly from the French Fourth Republic than that of Pierre Poujade, and few terms exude such a sulfurous odour as le poujadisme. Between 1953 and 1958, the Poujadists secured their place in modern French history, winning 52 seats in the National Assembly and inscribing a lasting entry in the lexicon of political protest. Taking as its starting point the fiftieth anniversary of Poujade’s movement held in its birthplace of Saint-Céré in July 2003, this article reassesses Poujadism fifty years on from its heyday. It considers Poujadism as the first important anti-globalisation movement in post-war France, a locus for the conflict between ‘stalemate’ traditionalism and socio-economic modernisation. It examines the trajectory of the Poujadists from anti-tax movement to political party, arguing the difficulty of defining Poujadism in classic political terms. In particular, the article takes issue with the perception of Poujadism as an extreme-right ideology and interprets it instead as a form of populist protest lacking a solid doctrinal core and opportunistic in its exploitation of political issues and allies. As such, it is argued, Poujadism represents a complex synthesis of both right-wing and left-wing values and discourses, as impervious to definition today as it was fifty years ago. The article considers the brief alliance of convenience between Poujade and Le Pen, and locates in Le Pen’s early Poujadist experience some of the methods and even some of the arguments used by the FN today. It concludes by discussing Poujade’s political activities after 1958, tracing his long-term conversion from violent opposition to the State under the Fourth Republic to co-operation under the Fifth. The author draws here on correspondence with Pierre Poujade up until his death in August 2003.

Scientists, trade unions and labour movement policies for science and technology, 1947-1964

This thesis describes the history of the scientific Left beginning with the period of its most extensive influence in the mid-1940s as a movement for the planning of science and ending with the Labour Party's programme of 1964 claiming to harness science and socialism. Its central theme is the external and internal pressures involved in the project to align left-wing politics, trade unions and social responsibility in science. The problematic aspects of this project are examined in the evolution of the Association of Scientific Workers and the World Federation of Scientific Workers as organisations committed to trade union and science policy objectives. This is presented also in the broader context of the Association's attempts to influence the Trade Union Congress's policies for science and technology in a more radical direction. The thesis argues that the shift in the balance of political forces in the labour movement, in the scientific community and in the state brought about by the Cold War was crucial in frustrating these endeavours. This led to alternative, but largely unsuccessful attempts, in the form of the Engels Society and subsequently Science for Peace to create the new expressions of the left-wing politics of science. However, the period 1956-1964 was characterised by intensive interest within the Labour Party in science and technology which reopened informal channels of political influence for the scientific Left. This was not matched by any radical renewal within the Association or the Trade Union Congress and thus took place on a narrower basis and lacked the democratic aspects of the earlier generation of socialist science policy.

The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

Les politiques de revenu minimum dans les provinces canadiennes : une étude comparée de l’aide sociale au Canada

L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’identifier les déterminants de la générosité de l’aide sociale au Canada. Plus précisément, quels sont les facteurs qui expliquent les variations entre les montants d’aide sociale entre les provinces canadiennes de 1990 à 2009? Pourquoi le Québec, la Saskatchewan et Terre-Neuve-Labrador sont plus généreux que le Nouveau-Brunswick et l’Alberta? L’analyse de ces 10 politiques distinctes est produite à partir d’un cadre théorique quadripartite qui inclut le rôle des acteurs (partis politiques et syndicats), les traits institutionnels (dépenses publiques et engagement à la redistribution), les contraintes budgétaires (taux d’assistance sociale, dette, économie) et le rôle du gouvernement fédéral (montant et type de transfert). Les résultats démontrent que l’aide sociale est une politique hautement dépendante au sentier et incrémentale. Des transferts fédéraux à coût partagé et un taux de syndicalisation élevé sont des facteurs qui exercent une influence positive sur la générosité des provinces. À l’inverse, les partis de droite ainsi qu’une situation budgétaire difficile ont un impact négatif. Il faut noter que la richesse économique des provinces n’est pas associée à une plus grande générosité de l’aide sociale, au contraire les prestations d’aide sociale étaient plus faibles en 2009 qu’en 1990 malgré un PIB qui a presque doublé. De plus, des provinces riches comme l’Alberta et la Colombie-Britannique sont peu généreuses. Finalement, il faut noter que les partis politiques de gauche n’ont pas l’effet positif escompté sur la générosité des politiques de revenu minimum.