A methodological framework for modeling pavement maintenance costs for projects with performance-based contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Background traffic modeling for large-scale network simulation

Network simulation is an indispensable tool for studying Internet-scale networks due to the heterogeneous structure, immense size and changing properties. It is crucial for network simulators to generate representative traffic, which is necessary for effectively evaluating next-generation network protocols and applications. With network simulation, we can make a distinction between foreground traffic, which is generated by the target applications the researchers intend to study and therefore must be simulated with high fidelity, and background traffic, which represents the network traffic that is generated by other applications and does not require significant accuracy. The background traffic has a significant impact on the foreground traffic, since it competes with the foreground traffic for network resources and therefore can drastically affect the behavior of the applications that produce the foreground traffic. This dissertation aims to provide a solution to meaningfully generate background traffic in three aspects. First is realism. Realistic traffic characterization plays an important role in determining the correct outcome of the simulation studies. This work starts from enhancing an existing fluid background traffic model by removing its two unrealistic assumptions. The improved model can correctly reflect the network conditions in the reverse direction of the data traffic and can reproduce the traffic burstiness observed from measurements. Second is scalability. The trade-off between accuracy and scalability is a constant theme in background traffic modeling. This work presents a fast rate-based TCP (RTCP) traffic model, which originally used analytical models to represent TCP congestion control behavior. This model outperforms other existing traffic models in that it can correctly capture the overall TCP behavior and achieve a speedup of more than two orders of magnitude over the corresponding packet-oriented simulation. Third is network-wide traffic generation. Regardless of how detailed or scalable the models are, they mainly focus on how to generate traffic on one single link, which cannot be extended easily to studies of more complicated network scenarios. This work presents a cluster-based spatio-temporal background traffic generation model that considers spatial and temporal traffic characteristics as well as their correlations. The resulting model can be used effectively for the evaluation work in network studies.

A Methodological Framework for Modeling Pavement Maintenance Costs for Projects with Performance-based Contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Background Traffic Modeling for Large-Scale Network Simulation

Network simulation is an indispensable tool for studying Internet-scale networks due to the heterogeneous structure, immense size and changing properties. It is crucial for network simulators to generate representative traffic, which is necessary for effectively evaluating next-generation network protocols and applications. With network simulation, we can make a distinction between foreground traffic, which is generated by the target applications the researchers intend to study and therefore must be simulated with high fidelity, and background traffic, which represents the network traffic that is generated by other applications and does not require significant accuracy. The background traffic has a significant impact on the foreground traffic, since it competes with the foreground traffic for network resources and therefore can drastically affect the behavior of the applications that produce the foreground traffic. This dissertation aims to provide a solution to meaningfully generate background traffic in three aspects. First is realism. Realistic traffic characterization plays an important role in determining the correct outcome of the simulation studies. This work starts from enhancing an existing fluid background traffic model by removing its two unrealistic assumptions. The improved model can correctly reflect the network conditions in the reverse direction of the data traffic and can reproduce the traffic burstiness observed from measurements. Second is scalability. The trade-off between accuracy and scalability is a constant theme in background traffic modeling. This work presents a fast rate-based TCP (RTCP) traffic model, which originally used analytical models to represent TCP congestion control behavior. This model outperforms other existing traffic models in that it can correctly capture the overall TCP behavior and achieve a speedup of more than two orders of magnitude over the corresponding packet-oriented simulation. Third is network-wide traffic generation. Regardless of how detailed or scalable the models are, they mainly focus on how to generate traffic on one single link, which cannot be extended easily to studies of more complicated network scenarios. This work presents a cluster-based spatio-temporal background traffic generation model that considers spatial and temporal traffic characteristics as well as their correlations. The resulting model can be used effectively for the evaluation work in network studies.

Modeling the impact of large-scale solid mass transfers on the gravity field

The focus of this thesis is to explore and quantify the response of large-scale solid mass transfer events on satellite-based gravity observations. The gravity signature of large-scale solid mass transfers has not been deeply explored yet; mainly due to the lack of significant events during dedicated satellite gravity missions‘ lifespans. In light of the next generation of gravity missions, the feasibility of employing satellite gravity observations to detect submarine and surface mass transfers is of importance for geoscience (improves the understanding of geodynamic processes) and for geodesy (improves the understanding of the dynamic gravity field). The aim of this thesis is twofold and focuses on assessing the feasibility of using satellite gravity observations for detecting large-scale solid mass transfers and on modeling the impact on the gravity field caused by these events. A methodology that employs 3D forward modeling simulations and 2D wavelet multiresolution analysis is suggested to estimate the impact of solid mass transfers on satellite gravity observations. The gravity signature of various submarine and subaerial events that occurred in the past was estimated. Case studies were conducted to assess the sensitivity and resolvability required in order to observe gravity differences caused by solid mass transfers. Simulation studies were also employed in order to assess the expected contribution of the Next Generation of Gravity Missions for this application.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Accurate Treatment of Large Supramolecular Complexes by Double-Hybrid Density Functionals Coupled with Nonlocal van der Waals Corrections

In this work, we present a thorough assessment of the performance of some representative double-hybrid density functionals (revPBE0-DH-NL and B2PLYP-NL) as well as their parent hybrid and GGA counterparts, in combination with the most modern version of the nonlocal (NL) van der Waals correction to describe very large weakly interacting molecular systems dominated by noncovalent interactions. Prior to the assessment, an accurate and homogeneous set of reference interaction energies was computed for the supramolecular complexes constituting the L7 and S12L data sets by using the novel, precise, and efficient DLPNO-CCSD(T) method at the complete basis set limit (CBS). The correction of the basis set superposition error and the inclusion of the deformation energies (for the S12L set) have been crucial for obtaining precise DLPNO-CCSD(T)/CBS interaction energies. Among the density functionals evaluated, the double-hybrid revPBE0-DH-NL and B2PLYP-NL with the three-body dispersion correction provide remarkably accurate association energies very close to the chemical accuracy. Overall, the NL van der Waals approach combined with proper density functionals can be seen as an accurate and affordable computational tool for the modeling of large weakly bonded supramolecular systems.

Developmentof engineering projects supported by BIM technology: internship report

Building Information Modeling (BIM) concept is able to reshape each AEC project and the industry in general, offering a comprehensive collaboration process over a model of structure with regularly actualized and synchronized information. This report presents an overview of BIM with focus on its core concepts, applications in the project life cycle and benefits for project stakeholders through four case studies carried out during the internship in the engineering office NEWTON - Engineering Consultancy Company. The aim of the four cases studies was to cover multidisciplinary and varied projects. The first case study highlights the engineering project’s workflow and presents a comparison of traditional procedures and BIM concepts applied on the rehabilitation of an existing building. In the second and third case study, attention is focused on the goals achieved, particularly by structural engineer, due to the implementation of the mentioned technology on a full-lifecycle BIM project of a small residence and a complex project of residential building in Porto and on its architectural integration. In addition, through the fourth case study, the spatial coordination of Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) systems at a large-scale hotel project has been analyzed and accomplished, highlighting merits of BIM at this project stage. Through a reduction of the space used for facilities and infrastructures and the ability to identify conflicts and to nullify the related costs, its advantage for a complex building was proved.

Spatial pattern detection modeling of thrips (Thrips tabaci) on onion fields

Onion (Allium cepa) is one of the most cultivated and consumed vegetables in Brazil and its importance is due to the large laborforce involved. One of the main pests that affect this crop is the Onion Thrips (Thrips tabaci), but the spatial distribution of this insect, although important, has not been considered in crop management recommendations, experimental planning or sampling procedures. Our purpose here is to consider statistical tools to detect and model spatial patterns of the occurrence of the onion thrips. In order to characterize the spatial distribution pattern of the Onion Thrips a survey was carried out to record the number of insects in each development phase on onion plant leaves, on different dates and sample locations, in four rural properties with neighboring farms under different infestation levels and planting methods. The Mantel randomization test proved to be a useful tool to test for spatial correlation which, when detected, was described by a mixed spatial Poisson model with a geostatistical random component and parameters allowing for a characterization of the spatial pattern, as well as the production of prediction maps of susceptibility to levels of infestation throughout the area.

Cloud condensation nuclei in pristine tropical rainforest air of Amazonia: size-resolved measurements and modeling of atmospheric aerosol composition and CCN activity

Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. We have measured and characterized CCN at water vapor supersaturations in the range of S=0.10-0.82% in pristine tropical rainforest air during the AMAZE-08 campaign in central Amazonia. The effective hygroscopicity parameters describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles varied in the range of kappa approximate to 0.1-0.4 (0.16+/-0.06 arithmetic mean and standard deviation). The overall median value of kappa approximate to 0.15 was by a factor of two lower than the values typically observed for continental aerosols in other regions of the world. Aitken mode particles were less hygroscopic than accumulation mode particles (kappa approximate to 0.1 at D approximate to 50 nm; kappa approximate to 0.2 at D approximate to 200 nm), which is in agreement with earlier hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (H-TDMA) studies. The CCN measurement results are consistent with aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) data, showing that the organic mass fraction (f(org)) was on average as high as similar to 90% in the Aitken mode (D <= 100 nm) and decreased with increasing particle diameter in the accumulation mode (similar to 80% at D approximate to 200 nm). The kappa values exhibited a negative linear correlation with f(org) (R(2)=0.81), and extrapolation yielded the following effective hygroscopicity parameters for organic and inorganic particle components: kappa(org)approximate to 0.1 which can be regarded as the effective hygroscopicity of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and kappa(inorg)approximate to 0.6 which is characteristic for ammonium sulfate and related salts. Both the size dependence and the temporal variability of effective particle hygroscopicity could be parameterized as a function of AMS-based organic and inorganic mass fractions (kappa(p)=kappa(org) x f(org)+kappa(inorg) x f(inorg)). The CCN number concentrations predicted with kappa(p) were in fair agreement with the measurement results (similar to 20% average deviation). The median CCN number concentrations at S=0.1-0.82% ranged from N(CCN,0.10)approximate to 35 cm(-3) to N(CCN,0.82)approximate to 160 cm(-3), the median concentration of aerosol particles larger than 30 nm was N(CN,30)approximate to 200 cm(-3), and the corresponding integral CCN efficiencies were in the range of N(CCN,0.10/NCN,30)approximate to 0.1 to N(CCN,0.82/NCN,30)approximate to 0.8. Although the number concentrations and hygroscopicity parameters were much lower in pristine rainforest air, the integral CCN efficiencies observed were similar to those in highly polluted megacity air. Moreover, model calculations of N(CCN,S) assuming an approximate global average value of kappa approximate to 0.3 for continental aerosols led to systematic overpredictions, but the average deviations exceeded similar to 50% only at low water vapor supersaturation (0.1%) and low particle number concentrations (<= 100 cm(-3)). Model calculations assuming aconstant aerosol size distribution led to higher average deviations at all investigated levels of supersaturation: similar to 60% for the campaign average distribution and similar to 1600% for a generic remote continental size distribution. These findings confirm earlier studies suggesting that aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the information and parameterizations presented in this paper should enable efficient description of the CCN properties of pristine tropical rainforest aerosols of Amazonia in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

Node-Depth Encoding and Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Applied to Large-Scale Distribution System Reconfiguration

The power loss reduction in distribution systems (DSs) is a nonlinear and multiobjective problem. Service restoration in DSs is even computationally hard since it additionally requires a solution in real-time. Both DS problems are computationally complex. For large-scale networks, the usual problem formulation has thousands of constraint equations. The node-depth encoding (NDE) enables a modeling of DSs problems that eliminates several constraint equations from the usual formulation, making the problem solution simpler. On the other hand, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (EA) based on subpopulation tables adequately models several objectives and constraints, enabling a better exploration of the search space. The combination of the multiobjective EA with NDE (MEAN) results in the proposed approach for solving DSs problems for large-scale networks. Simulation results have shown the MEAN is able to find adequate restoration plans for a real DS with 3860 buses and 632 switches in a running time of 0.68 s. Moreover, the MEAN has shown a sublinear running time in function of the system size. Tests with networks ranging from 632 to 5166 switches indicate that the MEAN can find network configurations corresponding to a power loss reduction of 27.64% for very large networks requiring relatively low running time.

Planning and operation of large-scale water distribution systems with preemptive priorities

This paper describes the development of an optimization model for the management and operation of a large-scale, multireservoir water supply distribution system with preemptive priorities. The model considers multiobjectives and hedging rules. During periods of drought, when water supply is insufficient to meet the planned demand, appropriate rationing factors are applied to reduce water supply. In this paper, a water distribution system is formulated as a network and solved by the GAMS modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. A user-friendly interface is developed to facilitate the manipulation of data and to generate graphs and tables for decision makers. The optimization model and its interface form a decision support system (DSS), which can be used to configure a water distribution system to facilitate capacity expansion and reliability studies. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the utility and versatility of the developed DSS under different supply and demand scenarios, including applications to one of the largest water supply systems in the world, the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area Water Supply Distribution System in Brazil.

Modeling of functionally graded piezoelectric ultrasonic transducers

The application of functionally graded material (FGM) concept to piezoelectric transducers allows the design of composite transducers without interfaces, due to the continuous change of property values. Thus, large improvements can be achieved, as reduction of stress concentration, increasing of bonding strength, and bandwidth. This work proposes to design and to model FGM piezoelectric transducers and to compare their performance with non-FGM ones. Analytical and finite element (FE) modeling of FGM piezoelectric transducers radiating a plane pressure wave in fluid medium are developed and their results are compared. The ANSYS software is used for the FE modeling. The analytical model is based on FGM-equivalent acoustic transmission-line model, which is implemented using MATLAB software. Two cases are considered: (i) the transducer emits a pressure wave in water and it is composed of a graded piezoceramic disk, and backing and matching layers made of homogeneous materials; (ii) the transducer has no backing and matching layer; in this case, no external load is simulated. Time and frequency pressure responses are obtained through a transient analysis. The material properties are graded along thickness direction. Linear and exponential gradation functions are implemented to illustrate the influence of gradation on the transducer pressure response, electrical impedance, and resonance frequencies. (C) 2009 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Numerical modeling of ductile crack extension in high pressure pipelines with longitudinal flaws

This study examines the applicability of a micromechanics approach based upon the computational cell methodology incorporating the Gurson-Tvergaard (GT) model and the CTOA criterion to describe ductile crack extension of longitudinal crack-like defects in high pressure pipeline steels. A central focus is to gain additional insight into the effectiveness and limitations of both approaches to describe crack growth response and to predict the burst pressure for the tested cracked pipes. A verification study conducted on burst testing of large-diameter, precracked pipe specimens with varying crack depth to thickness ratio (a/t) shows the potential predictive capability of the cell approach even though both the CT model and the CTOA criterion appear to depend on defect geometry. Overall, the results presented here lend additional support for further developments in the cell methodology as a valid engineering tool for integrity assessments of pipelines with axial defects. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved,