The Long Range Transport of Birch (Betula) Pollen from Poland and Germany Causes Significant Pre-season Concentrations in Denmark

Background Birch pollen is highly allergic and has the potential for episodically long range transport. Such episodes will in general occur out of the main pollen season. During that time allergy patients are unprotected and high pollen concentrations will therefore have a full allergenic impact. Objective To show that Denmark obtains significant quantities of birch pollen from Poland or Germany before the local trees start to flower. Methods Simultaneous observations of pollen concentrations and phenology in the potential source area in Poland as well as in Denmark were performed in 2006. The Danish pollen records from 2000-2006 were analysed for possible long range transport episodes and analysed with trajectories in combination with a birch tree source map. Results In 2006 high pollen concentrations were observed in Denmark with bi-hourly concentrations above 500 grains/ m3 before the local trees began to flower. Poland was identified as a source region. The analysis of the historical pollen record from Copenhagen shows significant pre-seasonal pollen episodes almost every year from 2000-2006. In all episodes trajectory analysis identified Germany or Poland as source regions. Conclusion Denmark obtains significant pre-seasonal quantities of birch pollen from either Poland or Germany almost every year. Forecasting of birch pollen quantities relevant to allergy patients must therefore take into account long-range transport. This cannot be based on measured concentrations in Denmark. The most effective way to improve the current Danish pollen forecasts is to extend the current forecasts with atmospheric transport models that take into account pollen emission and transport from countries such as Germany and Poland. Unless long range transport is taken into account pre-seasonal pollen episodes will have a full allergic impact, as the allergy patients in general will be unprotected during that time.

Long-range Transport of Ambrosia Pollen to Poland

The long-range transport of Ambrosia pollen to Poland is intermittent and mainly related to the passage of air masses over the Carpathian and Sudetes mountains. These episodes are associated with hot dry weather, a deep Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) in the source areas and winds from the south. Such episodes can transport significant amounts of Ambrosia pollen into Poland. The study investigates Ambrosia pollen episodes at eight sites in Poland during the period 7th to 10th September 2005, by examining temporal variations in Ambrosia pollen and back-trajectories. PBL depths in the likely source areas were calculated with the Eta meteorological model and evaluated against the mountain heights. Considerable amounts of Ambrosia pollen were recorded at several monitoring sites during the night or early in the morning of the investigated period. Trajectory analyses shows that the air masses arriving at the Polish sites predominantly came from the south, and were in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary the previous day indicating these countries as potential source areas. We have shown the progress of Ambrosia plumes into Poland from the south of the country, probably from Slovakia and Hungary, and demonstrated how Lagrangian back-trajectory models and meteorological models can be used to identify possible transport mechanisms of Ambrosia pollen from potential source regions.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Effect of long-range Coulomb interaction on shot-noise suppression in ballistic transport

We present a microscopic analysis of shot-noise suppression due to long-range Coulomb interaction in semiconductor devices under ballistic transport conditions. An ensemble Monte Carlo simulator self-consistently coupled with a Poisson solver is used for the calculations. A wide range of injection-rate densities leading to different degrees of suppression is investigated. A sharp tendency of noise suppression at increasing injection densities is found to scale with a dimensionless Debye length related to the importance of space-charge effects in the structure.

Processes influencing ozone levels in Alaskan forest fire plumes during long-range transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by three different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, was used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume was investigated using in situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18% in O3 production and 24% in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume toward Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport and also on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutant levels in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume were also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes change from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting a small underestimation in modeled photochemical O3 production. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the European boundary layer was also examined by running the model for a further 5 days and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over the entire 10 day period due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost because of the effects of dilution. However, measurements in several other BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be potentially significant over Europe.

Peroxy radicals and ozone photochemistry in air masses undergoing long-range transport

Concentrations of peroxy radicals (HO2+ΣiRiO2) in addition to other trace gases were measured onboard the UK Meteorological Office/Natural Environment Research Council British Aerospace 146-300 atmospheric research aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) campaign based at Horta Airport, Faial, Azores (38.58° N, 28.72° W) in July/August 2004. The overall peroxy radical altitude profile displays an increase with altitude that is likely to have been impacted by the effects of long-range transport. The peroxy radical altitude profile for air classified as of marine origin shows no discernable altitude profile. A range of air-masses were intercepted with varying source signatures, including those with aged American and Asian signatures, air-masses of biomass burning origin, and those that originated from the east coast of the United States. Enhanced peroxy radical concentrations have been observed within this range of air-masses indicating that long-range transported air-masses traversing the Atlantic show significant photochemical activity. The net ozone production at clear sky limit is in general negative, and as such the summer mid-Atlantic troposphere is at limit net ozone destructive. However, there is clear evidence of positive ozone production even at clear sky limit within air masses undergoing long-range transport, and during ITOP especially between 5 and 5.5 km, which in the main corresponds to a flight that extensively sampled air with a biomass burning signature. Ozone production was NOx limited throughout ITOP, as evidenced by a good correlation (r2=0.72) between P(O3) and NO. Strong positive net ozone production has also been seen in varying source signature air-masses undergoing long-range transport, including but not limited to low-level export events, and export from the east coast of the United States.

Orde Wingate, 'Guerrilla' Warfare and Long-Range Penetration, 1940-44

Major General Orde Wingate was a highly controversial figure in his time and remains so among historians. However, his eccentric and colourful personality has drawn attention away from the nature of his military ideas, the most important of which was his concept of long-range penetration, which originated from his observations of his operations in Italian-occupied Ethiopia in 1941, and evolved into the model he put into practice in the Chindit operations in Burma in 1943-44. A review of Wingate's own official writings on this subject reveals that long-range penetration combined local guerrilla irregulars, purpose-trained regular troops and airpower into large-scale offensive operations deep in the enemy rear, with the intention of disrupting his planning process and creating situations regular forces could exploit. This evolved organically from Major General Colin Gubbins' doctrine for guerrilla resistance in enemy occupied areas, and bears some resemblance to the operational model applied by US and Allied forces, post September 2001.

Inter-simple sequence repeat and aggressiveness analyses revealed high genetic diversity, recombination and long-range dispersal in Fusarium culmorum

Inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) analysis and aggressiveness assays were used to investigate genetic variability within a global collection of Fusarium culmorum isolates. A set of four ISSR primers were tested, of which three primers amplified a total of 37 bands out of which 30 (81%) were polymorphic. The intraspecific diversity was high, ranging from four to 28 different ISSR genotypes for F. culmorum depending on the primer. The combined analysis of ISSR data revealed 59 different genotypes clustered into seven distinct clades amongst 75 isolates of F. culmorum examined. All the isolates were assayed to test their aggressiveness on a winter wheat cv. 'Armada'. A significant quantitative variation for aggressiveness was found among the isolates. The ISSR and aggressiveness variation existed on a macro- as well as micro-geographical scale. The data suggested a long-range dispersal of F. culmorum and indicated that this fungus may have been introduced into Canada from Europe. In addition to the high level of intraspecific diversity observed in F. culmorum, the index of multilocus association calculated using ISSR data indicated that reproduction in F. culmorum cannot be exclusively clonal and recombination is likely to occur.

Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting

Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.