Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

The impact of the clean development mechanism (CDM) on the cost price of wind power electricity : a China study

As a renewable energy source, wind power is playing an increasingly important role in China’s electricity supply. Meanwhile, China is also the world’s largest market for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) wind power projects. Based on the data of 27 wind power projects of Inner Mongolia registered with the Executive Board of the United Nations (EB) in 2010, this paper constructs a financial model of Net Present Value (NPV) to analyze the cost of wind power electricity. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted to examine the impact of different variables with and without Certified Emission Reduction (CER) income brought about by the CDM. It is concluded that the CDM, along with static investment and annual wind electricity production, is one of the most significant factors in promoting the development of wind power in China. Additionally, wind power is envisaged as a practical proposition for competing with thermal power if the appropriate actions identified in the paper are made.

Mobile phone use and driving : the message is just not getting through

Previous research has shown that mobile phone use while driving can increase crash risk fourfold while texting results in 23 times greater crash risk for heavy vehicle drivers. However, mobile phone use has changed in recent years with the functional capabilities of smart phones to now also include a range of other common behaviours while driving such as using Facebook, emailing, the use of ‘apps’, and GPS. Research continues to show performance decrements for many such behaviours while driving, however many Australians still openly admit to illegal mobile phone use while driving despite ongoing enforcement efforts and public awareness campaigns. Of most concern are young drivers. ‘Apps’ available to restrict mobile phone use while in motion do not prevent use while a driver is stopped at traffic lights, so are therefore not a wholly viable solution. Vehicle manufacturers continue to develop in-vehicle technology to minimise distraction, however communication with the ‘outside world’ while driving is also perhaps a strong selling point for vehicles. Hence, the safety message that drivers should focus on the driving task solely and not use communication devices is unlikely to ever be internalised by many drivers. This paper reviews the available literature on the topic and argues that a better understanding of perceptions of mobile phone use while driving and motives for use are required to inform public awareness campaign development for specific road user groups. Additionally, illegal phone use while driving may be reinforced by not being apprehended (punishment avoidance), therefore stronger deterrence-focussed messages may also be beneficial.

The effect of consumer education on unit price usage : an early exploratory study

Consumer awareness and usage of Unit Price (UP) information continues to hold academic interest. Originally designed as a device to enable shoppers to make comparisons between grocery products, it is argued consumers still lack a sufficient understanding of the device. Previous research has tended to focus on product choice, effect of time, and structural changes to price presentation. No studies have tested the effect of UP consumer education on grocery shopping expenditure. Supported by distributed learning theories, this is the first study to condition participants over a twenty week period, to comprehend and employ UP information while shopping. A 3x5 mixed factorial design was employed to collect data from 357 shoppers. A 3 (Control, Massed, Spaced) x 5 (Time Point: Week 0, 5, 10, 15 and 20) mixed factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed to analyse the data. Preliminary results revealed that the three groups differed in their average expenditure over the twenty weeks. The Control group remained stable across the five time points. Results indicated that both intensive (Massed) and less intensive (Spaced) exposure to UP information achieved similar results, with both group reducing average expenditure similarly by Week 5. These patterns held for twenty weeks, with conditioned groups reducing their grocery expenditure by over 10%. This research has academic value as a test of applied learning theories. We argue, retailers can attain considerable market advantages as efforts to enhance customers’ knowledge, through consumer education campaigns, can have a positive and strong impact on customer trust and goodwill toward the organisation. Hence, major practical implications for both regulators and retailers exist.

Monitoring the price and affordability of foods and diets globally

Food prices and food affordability are important determinants of food choices, obesity and non-communicable diseases. As governments around the world consider policies to promote the consumption of healthier foods, data on the relative price and affordability of foods, with a particular focus on the difference between ‘less healthy’ and ‘healthy’ foods and diets, are urgently needed. This paper briefly reviews past and current approaches to monitoring food prices, and identifies key issues affecting the development of practical tools and methods for food price data collection, analysis and reporting. A step-wise monitoring framework, including measurement indicators, is proposed. ‘Minimal’ data collection will assess the differential price of ‘healthy’ and ‘less healthy’ foods; ‘expanded’ monitoring will assess the differential price of ‘healthy’ and ‘less healthy’ diets; and the ‘optimal’ approach will also monitor food affordability, by taking into account household income. The monitoring of the price and affordability of ‘healthy’ and ‘less healthy’ foods and diets globally will provide robust data and benchmarks to inform economic and fiscal policy responses. Given the range of methodological, cultural and logistical challenges in this area, it is imperative that all aspects of the proposed monitoring framework are tested rigorously before implementation.

City relative price dynamics in Australia : are structural breaks important?

This paper examines the dynamic behaviour of relative prices across seven Australian cities by applying panel unit root test procedures with structural breaks to quarterly consumer price index data for 1972 Q1–2011 Q4. We find overwhelming evidence of convergence in city relative prices. Three common structural breaks are endogenously determined at 1985, 1995, and 2007. Further, correcting for two potential biases, namely Nickell bias and time aggregation bias, we obtain half-life estimates of 2.3–3.8 quarters that are much shorter than those reported by previous research. Thus, we conclude that both structural breaks and bias corrections are important to obtain shorter half-life estimates.

On the allocation of a takeover purchase price under AASB1013

The purpose of this paper is to document and explain the allocation of takeover purchase price to identifiable intangible assets (IIAs), purchased goodwill, and/or target net tangible assets in an accounting environment unconstrained with respect to IIA accounting policy choice. Using a sample of Australian acquisitions during the unconstrained accounting environment from 1988 to 2004, we find the percentage allocation of purchase price to IIAs averaged 19.09%. The percentage allocation to IIAs is significantly positively related to return on assets and insignificantly related to leverage, contrary to opportunism. Efficiency suggests an explanation: profitable firms acquire and capitalise a higher percentage of IIAs in acquisitions. The target's investment opportunity set is significantly positively related to the percentage allocation to IIAs, consistent with information-signalling. The paper contributes to the accounting policy choice literature by showing how Australian firms make the one-off accounting policy choice in regards allocation of takeover purchase price (which is often a substantial dollar amount to) in an environment where accounting for IIAs was unconstrained.

Designing REDD+ to be just : considerations for a legally binding instrument

The international climate regime is in the process of negotiating a legally binding instrument concerning Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+). The paper starts by exploring the complex web of decisions and advices that currently regulate REDD+ initiatives within the international climate regime. This is followed by an analysis of justice issues raised by non-state actors in the REDD+ international negotiations. The paper concludes by building on this analysis to identify some relevant considerations when seeking to design a just and legally binding REDD+ instrument. These considerations include: the impact of market- versus fund-based investment channels, the importance of defining a clear objective; the inclusion and role of international principles such as sovereignty, preventative action, common but differentiated responsibility, sustainable development, and Free, Prior, and Informed Consent; the appropriate design of REDD+ safeguards and the inclusion of grievance mechanisms within the instrument which provide guidance on resolving disputes associated with REDD+ investment.

It's just an old apron : aprons, artefacts and art - representations of personal and private 'her-stories', as public histories

This paper examines art and artefact in the representation and recollection of deeply personal WWII women’s experiences as POW’s under the Japanese. This kind of treatment of internees in the Tjideng Women and Children’s internment camp (and others) in Batavia under the Japanese in WWII, stands in stark and brutal contrast to the idyllic life lived by many families up to that time in what was then known as the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia). The deprivation and brutality of the Japanese incarceration of these women and children evoked responses - not military, but certainly militant, if muted. Representations of those responses – as both art and artefact - may be found in the most unlikely places and unexpected forms - and are still being unearthed to this day. However close we might personally be to these artists and artisans, can we, as observers from a distance, ever truly comprehend through spoken or written words alone, the day-today realities of those extraordinary times?

More than just HD

Television’s 50th anniversary marks half a century of extraordinary technological development. This begs the question: is the best we can expect for the next 50 years just Higher Definition pictures of the same old crap?

"I can't believe I just said that": Using guided reflections with non-Indigenous pre-service teachers in Australia

This paper explores the use of guided narrative reflection as a strategy used with high-achieving non-Indigenous pre-service teachers in Australia on teaching practicum. We suggest that reflections (and subsequent dialogue) can provide opportunities for non-Indigenous preservice teachers to re-think their beliefs and actions in ways that may intervene in the teaching that often causes educational disadvantage for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students.

Continuity, Rupture, or just more of the 'Volatile and Contradictory': Glimpses of New South Wales' Penal Practice behind and through the Discursive

Throughout much of the western world more and more people are being sent to prison, one of a number of changes inspired by a 'new punitiveness' in penal and political affairs. This book seeks to understand these developments, bringing together leading authorities in the field to provide a wide-ranging analysis of new penal trends, compare the development of differing patterns of punishment across different types of societies, and to provide a range of theoretical analyses and commentaries to help understand their significance. As well as increases in imprisonment this book is also concerned to address a number of other aspects of 'the new punitiveness': firstly, the return of a number of forms of punishment previously thought extinct or inappropriate, such as the return of shaming punishments and chain gangs (in parts of the USA); and secondly, the increasing public involvement in penal affairs and penal development, for example in relation to length of sentences and the California Three Strikes Law, and a growing accreditation of the rights of victims. The book will be essential reading for students seeking to understand trends and theories of punishment on law, criminology, penology and other courses.