The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

Physical and linkage maps for Drosophila serrata, a model species for studies of clinal adaptation and sexual selection

Drosophila serrata is a member of the montium group, which contains more than 98 species and until recently was considered a subgroup within the melanogaster group. This Drosophila species is an emerging model system for evolutionary quantitative genetics and has been used in studies of species borders, clinal variation and sexual selection. Despite the importance of D. serrata as a model for evolutionary research, our poor understanding of its genome remains a significant limitation. Here, we provide a first-generation gene-based linkage map and a physical map for this species. Consistent with previous studies of other drosophilids we observed strong conservation of genes within chromosome arms homologous with D. melanogaster but major differences in within-arm synteny. These resources will be a useful complement to ongoing genome sequencing efforts and QTL mapping studies in this species

An expressed sequence tag (EST) library for Drosophila serrata, a model system for sexual selection and climatic adaptation studies

The native Australian fly Drosophila serrata belongs to the highly speciose montium subgroup of the melanogaster species group. It has recently emerged as an excellent model system with which to address a number of important questions, including the evolution of traits under sexual selection and traits involved in climatic adaptation along latitudinal gradients. Understanding the molecular genetic basis of such traits has been limited by a lack of genomic resources for this species. Here, we present the first expressed sequence tag (EST) collection for D. serrata that will enable the identification of genes underlying sexually-selected phenotypes and physiological responses to environmental change and may help resolve controversial phylogenetic relationships within the montium subgroup.

4000 years of phenotypic change in an island bird: heterogeneity of selection over three microevolutionary timescales.

Pronounced phenotypic shifts in island populations are typically attributed to natural selection, but reconstructing heterogeneity in long-term selective regimes remains a challenge. We examined a scenario of divergence proposed for species colonizing a new environment, involving directional selection with a rapid shift to a new optimum and subsequent stabilization. We provide some of the first empirical evidence for this model of evolution using morphological data from three timescales in an island bird, Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus. In less than four millennia since separation from its mainland counterpart, a substantial increase in body size has occurred and was probably achieved in fewer than 500 generations after colonization. Over four recent decades, morphological traits have fluctuated in size but showed no significant directional trends, suggesting maintenance of a relatively stable phenotype. Finally, estimates of contemporary selection gradients indicated generally weak directional selection. These results provide a rare description of heterogeneity in long-term natural regimes, and caution that observations of current selection may be of limited value in inferring mechanisms of past adaptation due to a lack of constancy even over short time-frames.

Quality based frame selection for video face recognition

Quality based frame selection is a crucial task in video face recognition, to both improve the recognition rate and to reduce the computational cost. In this paper we present a framework that uses a variety of cues (face symmetry, sharpness, contrast, closeness of mouth, brightness and openness of the eye) to select the highest quality facial images available in a video sequence for recognition. Normalized feature scores are fused using a neural network and frames with high quality scores are used in a Local Gabor Binary Pattern Histogram Sequence based face recognition system. Experiments on the Honda/UCSD database shows that the proposed method selects the best quality face images in the video sequence, resulting in improved recognition performance.

An assessment tool for selection of appropriate daylighting solutions for buildings in tropical and subtropical regions : Validation using radiance simulation

A new decision-making tool that will assist designers in the selection of appropriate daylighting solutions for buildings in tropical locations has been previously proposed by the authors. Through an evaluation matrix that prioritizes the parameters that best respond to the needs of tropical climates (e.g. reducing solar gain and protection from glare) the tool determines the most appropriate devices for specific climate and building inputs. The tool is effective in demonstrating the broad benefits and limitations of the different daylight strategies for buildings in the tropics. However for thorough analysis and calibration of the tool, validation is necessary. This paper presents a first step in the validation process. RADIANCE simulations were conducted to compare simulation performance with the performance predicted by the tool. To this end, an office building case study in subtropical Brisbane, Australia, and five different daylighting devices including openings, light guiding systems and light transport systems were simulated. Illuminance, light uniformity, daylight penetration and glare analysis were assessed for each device. The results indicate the tool can appropriately rank and recommend daylighting strategies based on specific building inputs for tropical and subtropical regions, making it a useful resource for designers.

Supramolecular selection in molecular alloys

Complexes of the type \[M(phen)3](PF6)2 (M = Ni(II), Fe(II), Ru(II) and phen = 1,10-phenanthroline) were found to co-crystallize to form molecular alloys (solid solutions of molecules) with general formula \[MAxMB1–x(phen)3](PF6)2·0.5H2O in which the relative concentrations of the metal complexes in the crystals closely match those in the crystallizing solution. Consequently, the composition of the co-crystals can be accurately predicted and controlled by modulating the relative concentrations of the metal complexes in the crystallizing solution. Although they are chemically and structurally similar, complexes of the type \[M(bipy)3](PF6)2 (M = Ni(II), Fe(II), Ru(II) and bipy = 2,2′-bipyridine) display markedly different behavior upon co-crystallization. In this case, the resulting co-crystals of general formula \[MAxMB1–x(bipy)3](PF6)2 have relative concentrations of the constituent complexes that are markedly different from the relative concentrations of the complexes initially present in the crystallizing solution. For example, when the nickel and iron complexes are co-crystallized from a solution containing a 50:50 ratio of each, the result is the formation of some crystals with a higher proportion of iron and others with a higher proportion of nickel. The relative concentrations of the metal complexes in the crystals can vary from those in the crystallizing solutions by as much as 15%. This result was observed for a range of combinations of metal complexes (Ni/Fe, Ni/Ru, and Fe/Ru) and a range of starting concentrations in the crystallizing solutions (90:10 through to 10:90 in 10% increments). To explain this remarkable result, we introduce the concept of “supramolecular selection”, which is a process driven by molecular recognition that leads to the partially selective aggregation of like molecules during crystallization.

Political selection and the relative age effect

In this paper we present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favor of those that have been the oldest in their cohort at school. This “relative age effect” has been proven to influence performance at school and in sports,but evidence on its impact on people’s vocational success has been rare. We find a marked break in the density of birthdate of politicians using a maximum likelihood test and McCrary’s (2008) nonparametric test. We conjecture that being relatively old in a peer group may create long term advantages which can create a significant role in the ability to succeed in a highly competitive environment like the race for top political offices in the USA. The magnitude of the effect we estimate is larger than what most other studies on the relative age effect for a broader (adult) population find, but is in general in line with studies that look at populations in high-competition environments.

Using photography in ‘The Restaurant of the Future’. A useful way to assess portion selection and plate cleaning?

Laboratory-based studies of human dietary behaviour benefit from highly controlled conditions; however, this approach can lack ecological validity. Identifying a reliable method to capture and quantify natural dietary behaviours represents an important challenge for researchers. In this study, we scrutinised cafeteria-style meals in the ‘Restaurant of the Future.’ Self-selected meals were weighed and photographed, both before and after consumption. Using standard portions of the same foods, these images were independently coded to produce accurate and reliable estimates of (i) initial self-served portions, and (ii) food remaining at the end of the meal. Plate cleaning was extremely common; in 86% of meals at least 90% of self-selected calories were consumed. Males ate a greater proportion of their self-selected meals than did females. Finally, when participants visited the restaurant more than once, the correspondence between selected portions was better predicted by the weight of the meal than by its energy content. These findings illustrate the potential benefits of meal photography in this context. However, they also highlight significant limitations, in particular, the need to exclude large amounts of data when one food obscures another.

A safe system-based approach to selection of clear zones, safety barriers and other roadside treatments

On average, 560 fatal run-off-road crashes occur annually in Australia and 135 in New Zealand. In addition, there are more than 14,000 run-off-road crashes causing injuries each year across both countries. In rural areas, run-off-road casualty crashes constitute 50-60% of all casualty crashes. Their severity is particularly high with more than half of those involved sustaining fatal or serious injuries. This paper reviews the existing approach to roadside hazard risk assessment, selection of clear zones and hazard treatments. It proposes a modified approach to roadside safety evaluation and management. It is a methodology based on statistical modelling of run-off-road casualty crashes, and application of locally developed crash modification factors and severity indices. Clear zones, safety barriers and other roadside design/treatment options are evaluated with a view to minimise fatal and serious injuries – the key Safe System objective. The paper concludes with a practical demonstration of the proposed approach. The paper is based on findings from a four-year Austroads research project into improving roadside safety in the Safe System context.

Ideas to improve the selection of NHMRC Project Grants

The starting point for this presentation is that applicants provide a large surplus of information when submitting a NHMRC Project Grant proposal for funding. This is costly in their time, attracts high administration costs, makes the task appear daunting for peer reviewers and may reduce the quality of the peer review leading to less than perfect reliability in decision making. We are currently experimenting with alternate models to see whether similar reliability in funding outcomes are achieved at less cost. We will compare traditional NHMRC Grant Review Panels (GRPs) with panels that use less information and journal style panels. By way of background to this experimental work, we will show some results on current levels of reliability for GRPs, the costs incurred by all who participate in Project Grant selection, and the level of reliability acceptable to researchers. By experimenting in this way and building an evidence base for how research funding should be allocated, the NHMRC is showing international leadership in this important field.

Trial by jury in civil proceedings : “convenience” and the philosophy of the UCPR

In Syddall v National Mutual Life Association of Australasia Limited [2008] QSC 101 Daubney J ordered the action be tried without a jury. His judgment considered the circumstances in which a trial involves any technical, scientific or other issue that can not be “conveniently” considered and resolved by a jury as provided in r 474 of the Uniform Civil Procedure Rules 1999 (Qld)

Sample selection in a model of female labour supply : an alternative approach

Suggests an alternative and computationally simpler approach of non-random sampling of labour economics and represents an observed outcome of an individual female′s choice of whether or not to participate in the labour market. Concludes that there is an alternative to the Heckman two-step estimator.

Computer-based assessments of expected satiety predict behavioural measures of portion-size selection and food intake

Previously, expected satiety (ES) has been measured using software and two-dimensional pictures presented on a computer screen. In this context, ES is an excellent predictor of self-selected portions, when quantified using similar images and similar software. In the present study we sought to establish the veracity of ES as a predictor of behaviours associated with real foods. Participants (N = 30) used computer software to assess their ES and ideal portion of three familiar foods. A real bowl of one food (pasta and sauce) was then presented and participants self-selected an ideal portion size. They then consumed the portion ad libitum. Additional measures of appetite, expected and actual liking, novelty, and reward, were also taken. Importantly, our screen-based measures of expected satiety and ideal portion size were both significantly related to intake (p < .05). By contrast, measures of liking were relatively poor predictors (p > .05). In addition, consistent with previous studies, the majority (90%) of participants engaged in plate cleaning. Of these, 29.6% consumed more when prompted by the experimenter. Together, these findings further validate the use of screen-based measures to explore determinants of portion-size selection and energy intake in humans.

Which procurement system? Towards a universal procurement selection technique

Two approaches are described, which aid the selection of the most appropriate procurement arrangements for a building project. The first is a multi-attribute technique based on the National Economic Development Office procurement path decision chart. A small study is described in which the utility factors involved were weighted by averaging the scores of five 'experts' for three hypothetical building projects. A concordance analysis is used to provide some evidence of any abnormal data sources. When applied to the study data, one of the experts was seen to be atypical. The second approach is by means of discriminant analysis. This was found to provide reasonably consistent predictions through three discriminant functions. The analysis also showed the quality criteria to have no significant impact on the decision process. Both approaches provided identical and intuitively correct answers in the study described. Some concluding remarks are made on the potential of discriminant analysis for future research and development in procurement selection techniques.