The Uncertain generalized probabilistic weighted average and its application in the theory of expertons

A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.

Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models using constraint propagation.

As modern molecular biology moves towards the analysis of biological systems as opposed to their individual components, the need for appropriate mathematical and computational techniques for understanding the dynamics and structure of such systems is becoming more pressing. For example, the modeling of biochemical systems using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) based on high-throughput, time-dense profiles is becoming more common-place, which is necessitating the development of improved techniques to estimate model parameters from such data. Due to the high dimensionality of this estimation problem, straight-forward optimization strategies rarely produce correct parameter values, and hence current methods tend to utilize genetic/evolutionary algorithms to perform non-linear parameter fitting. Here, we describe a completely deterministic approach, which is based on interval analysis. This allows us to examine entire sets of parameters, and thus to exhaust the global search within a finite number of steps. In particular, we show how our method may be applied to a generic class of ODEs used for modeling biochemical systems called Generalized Mass Action Models (GMAs). In addition, we show that for GMAs our method is amenable to the technique in interval arithmetic called constraint propagation, which allows great improvement of its efficiency. To illustrate the applicability of our method we apply it to some networks of biochemical reactions appearing in the literature, showing in particular that, in addition to estimating system parameters in the absence of noise, our method may also be used to recover the topology of these networks.

Personalized drug administrations using Support Vector Machine

The decision-making process regarding drug dose, regularly used in everyday medical practice, is critical to patients' health and recovery. It is a challenging process, especially for a drug with narrow therapeutic ranges, in which a medical doctor decides the quantity (dose amount) and frequency (dose interval) on the basis of a set of available patient features and doctor's clinical experience (a priori adaptation). Computer support in drug dose administration makes the prescription procedure faster, more accurate, objective, and less expensive, with a tendency to reduce the number of invasive procedures. This paper presents an advanced integrated Drug Administration Decision Support System (DADSS) to help clinicians/patients with the dose computing. Based on a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, enhanced with the random sample consensus technique, this system is able to predict the drug concentration values and computes the ideal dose amount and dose interval for a new patient. With an extension to combine the SVM method and the explicit analytical model, the advanced integrated DADSS system is able to compute drug concentration-to-time curves for a patient under different conditions. A feedback loop is enabled to update the curve with a new measured concentration value to make it more personalized (a posteriori adaptation).

Risk factors of postictal generalized EEG suppression in generalized convulsive seizures.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the clinical determinants of occurrence of postictal generalized EEG suppression (PGES) after generalized convulsive seizures (GCS). METHODS: We reviewed the video-EEG recordings of 417 patients included in the REPO2MSE study, a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy. According to ictal semiology, we classified GCS into 3 types: tonic-clonic GCS with bilateral and symmetric tonic arm extension (type 1), clonic GCS without tonic arm extension or flexion (type 2), and GCS with unilateral or asymmetric tonic arm extension or flexion (type 3). Association between PGES and person-specific or seizure-specific variables was analyzed after correction for individual effects and the varying number of seizures. RESULTS: A total of 99 GCS in 69 patients were included. Occurrence of PGES was independently associated with GCS type (p < 0.001) and lack of early administration of oxygen (p < 0.001). Odds ratio (OR) for GCS type 1 in comparison with GCS type 2 was 66.0 (95% confidence interval [CI 5.4-801.6]). In GCS type 1, risk of PGES was significantly increased when the seizure occurred during sleep (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.2-20.9) and when oxygen was not administered early (OR 13.4, 95% CI 3.2-55.9). CONCLUSION: The risk of PGES dramatically varied as a function of GCS semiologic characteristics. Whatever the type of GCS, occurrence of PGES was prevented by early administration of oxygen.

Full instability behavior of N-dimensional dynamical systems with a one-directional nonlinear vector field

We show how certain N-dimensional dynamical systems are able to exploit the full instability capabilities of their fixed points to do Hopf bifurcations and how such a behavior produces complex time evolutions based on the nonlinear combination of the oscillation modes that emerged from these bifurcations. For really different oscillation frequencies, the evolutions describe robust wave form structures, usually periodic, in which selfsimilarity with respect to both the time scale and system dimension is clearly appreciated. For closer frequencies, the evolution signals usually appear irregular but are still based on the repetition of complex wave form structures. The study is developed by considering vector fields with a scalar-valued nonlinear function of a single variable that is a linear combination of the N dynamical variables. In this case, the linear stability analysis can be used to design N-dimensional systems in which the fixed points of a saddle-node pair experience up to N21 Hopf bifurcations with preselected oscillation frequencies. The secondary processes occurring in the phase region where the variety of limit cycles appear may be rather complex and difficult to characterize, but they produce the nonlinear mixing of oscillation modes with relatively generic features

Study on Fuzzy Ordered FuzzyTopological Spaces

In this study we combine the notions of fuzzy order and fuzzy topology of Chang and define fuzzy ordered fuzzy topological space. Its various properties are analysed. Product, quotient, union and intersection of fuzzy orders are introduced. Besides, fuzzy order preserving maps and various fuzzy completeness are investigated. Finally an attempt is made to study the notion of generalized fuzzy ordered fuzzy topological space by considering fuzzy order defined on a fuzzy subset.

Characterizations of Life Distributions Using Conditional Expectations of Doubly (Interval) Truncated Random Variables

In this article, we study reliability measures such as geometric vitality function and conditional Shannon’s measures of uncertainty proposed by Ebrahimi (1996) and Sankaran and Gupta (1999), respectively, for the doubly (interval) truncated random variables. In survival analysis and reliability engineering, these measures play a significant role in studying the various characteristics of a system/component when it fails between two time points. The interrelationships among these uncertainty measures for various distributions are derived and proved characterization theorems arising out of them

Time Discretization of the SST-generalized Navier-Stokes Equations: Positive and Negative Results

In the theory of the Navier-Stokes equations, the proofs of some basic known results, like for example the uniqueness of solutions to the stationary Navier-Stokes equations under smallness assumptions on the data or the stability of certain time discretization schemes, actually only use a small range of properties and are therefore valid in a more general context. This observation leads us to introduce the concept of SST spaces, a generalization of the functional setting for the Navier-Stokes equations. It allows us to prove (by means of counterexamples) that several uniqueness and stability conjectures that are still open in the case of the Navier-Stokes equations have a negative answer in the larger class of SST spaces, thereby showing that proof strategies used for a number of classical results are not sufficient to affirmatively answer these open questions. More precisely, in the larger class of SST spaces, non-uniqueness phenomena can be observed for the implicit Euler scheme, for two nonlinear versions of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, for the fractional step theta scheme, and for the SST-generalized stationary Navier-Stokes equations. As far as stability is concerned, a linear version of the Euler scheme, a nonlinear version of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, and the fractional step theta scheme turn out to be non-stable in the class of SST spaces. The positive results established in this thesis include the generalization of classical uniqueness and stability results to SST spaces, the uniqueness of solutions (under smallness assumptions) to two nonlinear versions of the Euler scheme, two nonlinear versions of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, and the fractional step theta scheme for general SST spaces, the second order convergence of a version of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, and a new proof of the first order convergence of the implicit Euler scheme for the Navier-Stokes equations. For each convergence result, we provide conditions on the data that guarantee the existence of nonstationary solutions satisfying the regularity assumptions needed for the corresponding convergence theorem. In the case of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, this involves a compatibility condition at the corner of the space-time cylinder, which can be satisfied via a suitable prescription of the initial acceleration.

Notes on PCA, Regularization, Sparsity and Support Vector Machines

We derive a new representation for a function as a linear combination of local correlation kernels at optimal sparse locations and discuss its relation to PCA, regularization, sparsity principles and Support Vector Machines. We first review previous results for the approximation of a function from discrete data (Girosi, 1998) in the context of Vapnik"s feature space and dual representation (Vapnik, 1995). We apply them to show 1) that a standard regularization functional with a stabilizer defined in terms of the correlation function induces a regression function in the span of the feature space of classical Principal Components and 2) that there exist a dual representations of the regression function in terms of a regularization network with a kernel equal to a generalized correlation function. We then describe the main observation of the paper: the dual representation in terms of the correlation function can be sparsified using the Support Vector Machines (Vapnik, 1982) technique and this operation is equivalent to sparsify a large dictionary of basis functions adapted to the task, using a variation of Basis Pursuit De-Noising (Chen, Donoho and Saunders, 1995; see also related work by Donahue and Geiger, 1994; Olshausen and Field, 1995; Lewicki and Sejnowski, 1998). In addition to extending the close relations between regularization, Support Vector Machines and sparsity, our work also illuminates and formalizes the LFA concept of Penev and Atick (1996). We discuss the relation between our results, which are about regression, and the different problem of pattern classification.

On the V(subscript gamma) Dimension for Regression in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces

This paper presents a computation of the $V_gamma$ dimension for regression in bounded subspaces of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) for the Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression $epsilon$-insensitive loss function, and general $L_p$ loss functions. Finiteness of the RV_gamma$ dimension is shown, which also proves uniform convergence in probability for regression machines in RKHS subspaces that use the $L_epsilon$ or general $L_p$ loss functions. This paper presenta a novel proof of this result also for the case that a bias is added to the functions in the RKHS.

An Equivalence Between Sparse Approximation and Support Vector Machines

In the first part of this paper we show a similarity between the principle of Structural Risk Minimization Principle (SRM) (Vapnik, 1982) and the idea of Sparse Approximation, as defined in (Chen, Donoho and Saunders, 1995) and Olshausen and Field (1996). Then we focus on two specific (approximate) implementations of SRM and Sparse Approximation, which have been used to solve the problem of function approximation. For SRM we consider the Support Vector Machine technique proposed by V. Vapnik and his team at AT&T Bell Labs, and for Sparse Approximation we consider a modification of the Basis Pursuit De-Noising algorithm proposed by Chen, Donoho and Saunders (1995). We show that, under certain conditions, these two techniques are equivalent: they give the same solution and they require the solution of the same quadratic programming problem.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Central notations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform. In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understood easily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating, combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/ perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weighted addition of the corresponding evidence. Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have a particularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families form finite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensional subspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior). The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P. The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functions or likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Symmetric stability of compressible zonal flows on a generalized equatorial β plane

Sufficient conditions are derived for the linear stability with respect to zonally symmetric perturbations of a steady zonal solution to the nonhydrostatic compressible Euler equations on an equatorial � plane, including a leading order representation of the Coriolis force terms due to the poleward component of the planetary rotation vector. A version of the energy–Casimir method of stability proof is applied: an invariant functional of the Euler equations linearized about the equilibrium zonal flow is found, and positive definiteness of the functional is shown to imply linear stability of the equilibrium. It is shown that an equilibrium is stable if the potential vorticity has the same sign as latitude and the Rayleigh centrifugal stability condition that absolute angular momentum increase toward the equator on surfaces of constant pressure is satisfied. The result generalizes earlier results for hydrostatic and incompressible systems and for systems that do not account for the nontraditional Coriolis force terms. The stability of particular equilibrium zonal velocity, entropy, and density fields is assessed. A notable case in which the effect of the nontraditional Coriolis force is decisive is the instability of an angular momentum profile that decreases away from the equator but is flatter than quadratic in latitude, despite its satisfying both the centrifugal and convective stability conditions.

A fast two-grid and finite section method for a class of integral equations on the real line with application to an acoustic scattering problem in the half-plane

We consider the numerical treatment of second kind integral equations on the real line of the form ∅(s) = ∫_(-∞)^(+∞)▒〖κ(s-t)z(t)ϕ(t)dt,s=R〗 (abbreviated ϕ= ψ+K_z ϕ) in which K ϵ L_1 (R), z ϵ L_∞ (R) and ψ ϵ BC(R), the space of bounded continuous functions on R, are assumed known and ϕ ϵ BC(R) is to be determined. We first derive sharp error estimates for the finite section approximation (reducing the range of integration to [-A, A]) via bounds on (1-K_z )^(-1)as an operator on spaces of weighted continuous functions. Numerical solution by a simple discrete collocation method on a uniform grid on R is then analysed: in the case when z is compactly supported this leads to a coefficient matrix which allows a rapid matrix-vector multiply via the FFT. To utilise this possibility we propose a modified two-grid iteration, a feature of which is that the coarse grid matrix is approximated by a banded matrix, and analyse convergence and computational cost. In cases where z is not compactly supported a combined finite section and two-grid algorithm can be applied and we extend the analysis to this case. As an application we consider acoustic scattering in the half-plane with a Robin or impedance boundary condition which we formulate as a boundary integral equation of the class studied. Our final result is that if z (related to the boundary impedance in the application) takes values in an appropriate compact subset Q of the complex plane, then the difference between ϕ(s)and its finite section approximation computed numerically using the iterative scheme proposed is ≤C_1 [kh log⁡〖(1⁄kh)+(1-Θ)^((-1)⁄2) (kA)^((-1)⁄2) 〗 ] in the interval [-ΘA,ΘA](Θ<1) for kh sufficiently small, where k is the wavenumber and h the grid spacing. Moreover this numerical approximation can be computed in ≤C_2 N log⁡N operations, where N = 2A/h is the number of degrees of freedom. The values of the constants C1 and C2 depend only on the set Q and not on the wavenumber k or the support of z.