The effect of windstress change on future sea level change in the Southern Ocean

AOGCMs of the two latest phases (CMIP3 and CMIP5) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, like earlier AOGCMs, predict large regional variations in future sea level change. The model-mean pattern of change in CMIP3 and CMIP5 is very similar, and its most prominent feature is a zonal dipole in the Southern Ocean: sea level rise is larger than the global mean north of 50°S and smaller than the global mean south of 50°S in most models. The individual models show widely varying patterns, although the inter-model spread in local sea level change is smaller in CMIP5 than in CMIP3. Here we investigate whether changes in windstress can explain the different patterns of projected sea level change, especially the Southern Ocean feature, using two AOGCMs forced by the changes in windstress from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs. We show that the strengthening and poleward shift of westerly windstress accounts for the most of the large spread among models in magnitude of this feature. In the Indian, North Pacific and Arctic Oceans, the windstress change is influential, but does not completely account for the projected sea level change.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Recent lake-level and outflow variations at Lake Viljandi, Estonia: validation of a coupled lake-catchment modelling scheme for climate change studies

Changes in the depth of Lake Viljandi between 1940 and 1990 were simulated using a lake water and energy-balance model driven by standard monthly weather data. Catchment runoff was simulated using a one-dimensional hydrological model, with a two-layer soil, a single-layer snowpack, a simple representation of vegetation cover and similarly modest input requirements. Outflow was modelled as a function of lake level. The simulated record of lake level and outflow matched observations of lake-level variations (r = 0.78) and streamflow (r = 0.87) well. The ability of the model to capture both intra- and inter-annual variations in the behaviour of a specific lake, despite the relatively simple input requirements, makes it extremely suitable for investigations of the impacts of climate change on lake water balance.

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

A multi level analysis on pollination-related policies

The paper explores pollination from a multi level policy perspective and analyses the institutional fit and inter play of multi-faceted pollination-related policies. First, it asks what the major policies are that frame pollination at the EU level. Second, it explores the relationship between the EU policies and localised ways of understanding pollination. Addressed third is how the concept of ecosystem services can aid in under- standing the various ways of framing and governing the situation. The results show that the policy systems affecting pollination are abundant and that these systems create different kinds of pressure on stakeholders, at several levels of society. The local-level concerns are more about the loss of pollination services than about loss of pollinators. This points to the problem of fit between local activity driven by economic reasoning and biodiversity-driven EU policies. Here we see the concept of ecosystem services having some potential, since its operationalisation can combine economic and environmental considerations. Further- more, the analysis shows how, instead of formal institutions, it seems that social norms, habits, and motivation are the key to understanding and developing effective and attractive governance measures.

Summertime moisture transport over Southeastern South America and extratropical cyclones behavior during inter-El Nio events

The impact of the inter-El Nio (EN) variability on the moisture availability over Southeastern South America (SESA) is investigated. Also, an automatic tracking scheme was used to analyze the extratropical cyclones properties (system density - SD and central pressure - CP) in this region. During the austral summer period from 1977-2000, the differences for the upper-level wave train anomaly composites seem to determine the rainfall composite differences. In fact, the positive rainfall anomalies over most of the SESA domain during the strong EN events are explained by an upper-level cyclonic center over the tropics and an anticyclonic center over the eastern subtropical area. This pattern seems to contribute to upward vertical motion at 500 hPa and reinforcement of the meridional moisture transport from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and western Amazon basin to the SESA region. These features may contribute to the positive SD and negative CP anomalies explaining part of the positive rainfall anomalies found there. On the other hand, negative rainfall anomalies are located in the northern part of SESA for the weak EN years when compared to those for the strong events. Also, positive anomalies are found in the southern part, albeit less intense. It was associated with the weakening of the meridional moisture transport from the tropics to the SESA that seems have to contributed with smaller SD and CP anomalies over the most part of subtropics, when compared to the strong EN years.

Four-level systems and a universal quantum gate

We discuss the possibility of implementing a universal quantum XOR gate by using two coupled quantum dots subject to external magnetic fields that are parallel and slightly different. We consider this system in two different field configurations. In the first case, parallel external fields with the intensity difference at each spin being proportional to the time-dependent interaction between the spins. A general exact solution describing this system is presented and analyzed to adjust field parameters. Then we consider parallel fields with intensity difference at each spin being constant and the interaction between the spins switching on and off adiabatically. In both cases we adjust characteristics of the external fields (their intensities and duration) in order to have the parallel pulse adequate for constructing the XOR gate. In order to provide a complete theoretical description of all the cases, we derive relations between the spin interaction, the inter-dot distance, and the external field. (C) 2008 WILEYNCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA. Weinheim.

Structural and spectroscopic properties of the diazocarbene radical (CNN) and its ions CNN(+) and CNN(-): a high-level theoretical investigation

The diazocarbene radical, CNN, and the ions CNN(+) and CNN(-) were investigated at a high level of theory. Very accurate structural parameters for the states X(3)Sigma(-) and A(3)Pi of CNN, and X(2)Pi of both CNN(+) and CNN(-) were obtained with the UCCSD(T) method using correlated-consistent basis functions with extrapolations to the complete basis set limit, with valence only and also with all electrons correlated. Harmonic and anharmonic frequencies were obtained for all species and the Renner parameter and average frequencies evaluated for the Pi states. At the UCCSD(T)/CBS(T-5) level of theory, Delta(f)H(0 K) = 138.89 kcal/mol and Delta(f)H(298 K) = 139.65 kcal/mol were obtained for diazocarbene; for the ionization potential and the electron affinity of CNN, 10.969 eV (252.95 kcal/mol), and 1.743 eV (40.19 kcal/mol), respectively, are predicted. Geometry optimization was also carried out with the CASSCF/MRCI/CBS(T-5) approach for the states X(3)Sigma(-) A(3)Pi, and a(1)Delta of CNN, and with the CASSCF/MRSDCI/aug-cc-pVTZ approach for the states b(1)Sigma(+), c(1)Pi, d(1)Sigma(-), and B(3)Sigma(-), and excitation energies (T(e)) evaluated. Vertical energies were calculated for 15 electronic states, thus improving on the accuracy of the five transitions already described, and allowing for a reliable overview of a manifold of other states, which is expected to guide future spectroscopic experiments. This study corroborates the experimental assignment for the vertical transition X (3)Sigma(-) <- E (3)Pi.

Student Thesis Level: Master’s Thesis in Business Administration Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) networking : A case study on why members join CSR network and why are they sharing their knowledge

Purpose – This research focuses on finding the reasons, why members from different sectors join a cross-sector/multi-stakeholder CSR network and what motivates them to share (or not to share) their knowledge of CSR and their best practices. Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews were conducted with members of the largest cross-sector CSR network in Sweden. The sample base of 15 people was chosen to be able to represent a wider variety of members from each participating sectors. As well as the CEO of the intermediary organization was interviewed. The interviews were conducted via email and telephone. Findings – The findings include several reasons linked to the business case of CSR such as stakeholder pressure, competitive advantage, legitimacy and reputation as well as new reasons like the importance of CSR, and the access of further knowledge in the field. Further reasons are in line with members wanting to join a network, such as access to contact or having personal contacts. As to why members are sharing their CSR knowledge, the findings indicate to inspire others, to show CSR commitment, to be visible, it leads to business opportunity and the access of others knowledge, and because it was requested. Reasons for not sharing their knowledge would be the lack of opportunity, lack of time and the lack of experience to do so. Originality/value – The research contributes to existing studies, which focused on Corporate Social Responsibility and cross-sector networking as well as to inter-organizational knowledge sharing in the field of CSR.

Trajetórias De Acumulação De Capacidades Inovadoras, Mecanismos De Aprendizagem E Fatores Organizacionais Relativos A Atividades Em Gestão De Projetos: Estudo De Caso Comparativo Inter-Empresarial Na Indústria De Bens De Capital E De Celulose E Papel No Brasil

Over the last 40 years there has been a profusion of studies about the ccumulation of technological capacities in firms from developing economies. However, there remain few studies that examine, on a combined basis, the relationship among: the trajectories of technological capacities accumulation; the underlying learning mechanisms; and, the implications of organizational factors for these two variables. Still scarcer are the studies that examine the relationship among these variables along time and based on a comparative case study. This dissertation examines the relationship among the trajectory of accumulation of innovative capacities in complex project management, the learning mechanisms underlying these technological capacities and the intra-organizational factors that influence these learning echanisms. That set of relationships is examined through a comparative and a long-term (1988-2008) case study in a capital goods firm (for the pulp and paper industry) and a pulp mill in Brazil. Based on first-hand quantitative and qualitative empiric evidence, gathered through extensive field research, this dissertation found: 1. Both firms accumulated innovative capacity in project management at the international frontier level (Level 6). However, there was variability between the firms in terms of the nature and speed of accumulation of those capacities. It was also observed that, at this level of innovation, the innovative capacities of both firms are not confined to their organizational boundaries, but they are distributed beyond their boundaries. 2. So that these companies could accumulate those levels of innovative capacities it was necessary to manage several learning mechanisms: leveraging of external knowledge and its internalization in terms of internal apacities of the firm. In other words, as the companies accumulated more innovative levels of capacities for project management, it was necessary to manage different cycles of technological learning. 3. Further, the relationship between the ccumulation of technological capacities and learning was affected positively by intra-organizational factors, such as 'authority disposition', 'mutability of work roles' and 'intensity of internal crises', and negatively by the factor 'singularity of goals'. This dissertation revealed divergent results between firms in two of the four factors studied. These results contribute to advance our understanding of the complexity and variability involved in the process of accumulation of innovative capacities in firms from developing economies. This highlights the growing importance of the organizational and the human resource dimensions of innovation and technological capacity as the company approaches the international frontier. The results suggest to managers that: (i) the good performance in project management in the two firms studied did not occur simply as a result of the pulp and paper Brazilian industry growth, rather as a result of the deliberate construction and accumulation of the capacities through an intensive and coordinated cyclical process of technological learning, (ii) to develop innovative capabilities in project management, besides looking for learning mechanisms they should also look at the organizational factors that influence the learning mechanisms directly, (iii) performance of pulp mill¿s projects is better when projects are implemented together with technology suppliers than when performed only by the mill. This dissertation concludes that capital goods firms have been having a fundamental role for the innovative capabilities accumulation in project management of pulp mills in Brazil (and vice-versa) for a long time. This contradicts some authors' propositions that affirm that: a) equipment suppliers for the pulp and paper industry have been creating little, if any, development of processes or engineering projects in Brazil; b) firms in the pulp and paper industry have little capacity for machinery and equipments projects only taking place in few technological activities, being internal or external to the firm. Finally, some studies are proposed for future research.

Gender in international economic development projects: how is gender being institutionalized in the Inter-American Development Bank?

O Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento, o Banco Mundial, e outras organizações financiam iniciativas para acelerar o desenvolvimento da região da América Latina e Caribe. Antes do final da década de 80, vários projetos e políticas dessas instituições careciam de considerações ligadas à gênero e foram criticadas por essa falta (Flora, 1998). Em 1987, o BID publicou um documento sobre uma nova política operacional sobre mulheres e desenvolvimento e vem desde então buscando institucionalizar gênero e criar indicadores para medir os impactos relacionados à gênero em seus projetos. O objetivo dessa dissertação é explorar o tema de gênero no contexto do desenvolvimento internacional através de uma análise de como o Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento inclui gênero em suas operações. Após uma revisão literária sobre a importância de gênero e de bancos de desenvolvimento, essa dissertação irá analisar de que maneira gênero é incluído nas discussões dos projetos do Banco à nível institucional. A pesquisa será feita através de documentação disponível para o público geral, documentos internos e entrevistas em vídeo com pessoal do BID. Após uma análise dos dados coletados, recomendações para ações futuras serão dadas.

Dynamics of inter-modality re-weighting during human postural control

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Boto cinza (Sotalia guianensis, Van Benédén, 1864) (Cetacea, Delphinidae): Atividade aérea, forrageio e interações inter-específicas, na Praia de Pipa (Tibau do Sul RN) e estudo comparativo entre duas populações do Nordeste do Brasil

Sotalia guianensis is a small cetacean of the Delphinidae family, with coastal habits and whose area of distribution ranges from Florianópolis (27º35'S, 48º34'W), in Brazil, to Honduras (15º58'N, 85º42'W). At Pipa beach, on the south coast of RN state, in Brazil, the species occur throughout the year. The present study was carried out in two bays, which are bordered by cliffs. The animals were monitored from vantage points, using the "Ad libitum" and "all the occurrences" methods; during the years of 1999 and 2004. The study was divided in 4 chapters: Behavioral standards of two populations of gray dolphin, (Sotalia guianensis, Van Benédén, 1864) in the northeast of Brazil; Aerial activity of the gray dolphin: its possible function and the influence of environmental and behavioral factors; The influence of daily and monthly variation of the tides, of the period of the day and group size on the gray dolphin forage activity; kleptoparasitism interactions of frigatebird (Fregata magnificens, Mattheus, 1914) during the gray dolphin forage activity. The results have shown that the gray dolphin has a varied and complex behavioral repertoire. The leap is the most frequent behavior; the aerial activity is diffuse during daylight and is influenced by some factors, such as the level of the tide and social factors. The gray dolphin, when in the bay, most frequently feeds isolate or in small groups. The forage is diffuse during daylight; however, being more frequent in the morning and is influenced by the daily and monthly variation of the tide. At Pipa beach, kleptoparasitarian interactions were registered between the gray dolphin and the frigatebird (Fregata magnificens). The frigatebird forage strategy consists basically of two ways: to fly over great extensions searching for dead fish and to steal food (kleptoparasitism). These interactions were predominantly carried out between immature and female adult birds and adult and immature dolphins, and occurred during daylight. The present study can be considered an initial landmark to a better knowledge on the gray dolphin surface behavior, especially regarding the aerial behavioral repertoire and forage strategy of this species. However, it is necessary to continue these studies, so that we can understand better the complex social life of these animals and thus create effective measures for its conservation