A proposed validation framework for expert elicited Bayesian Networks

The popularity of Bayesian Network modelling of complex domains using expert elicitation has raised questions of how one might validate such a model given that no objective dataset exists for the model. Past attempts at delineating a set of tests for establishing confidence in an entirely expert-elicited model have focused on single types of validity stemming from individual sources of uncertainty within the model. This paper seeks to extend the frameworks proposed by earlier researchers by drawing upon other disciplines where measuring latent variables is also an issue. We demonstrate that even in cases where no data exist at all there is a broad range of validity tests that can be used to establish confidence in the validity of a Bayesian Belief Network.

Bearing fault prognosis based on health state probability estimation

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedule of production if necessary. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of bearings based on health state probability estimation and historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation process to provide long term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life fault historical data from bearings of High Pressure-Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Management accounting adaptability in an integrated information system environment

In this study, we explore the relationship between the qualities of the information system environment and management accounting adaptability. The information system environment refers to three distinct elements: the degree of information system integration, system flexibility, and shared knowledge between business unit managers and the IT function. We draw on the literature on integrated information systems (IIS) and management accounting change and propose a model to test the hypothesized relationships. The sample for this study consists of Australian companies from all industries.

Developing Co-operating Legal Knowledge Based Systems

In attempting to build intelligent litigation support tools, we have moved beyond first generation, production rule legal expert systems. Our work supplements rule-based reasoning with case based reasoning and intelligent information retrieval. This research, specifies an approach to the case based retrieval problem which relies heavily on an extended object-oriented / rule-based system architecture that is supplemented with causal background information. Machine learning techniques and a distributed agent architecture are used to help simulate the reasoning process of lawyers. In this paper, we outline our implementation of the hybrid IKBALS II Rule Based Reasoning / Case Based Reasoning system. It makes extensive use of an automated case representation editor and background information.

The IKBALS project: multi-modal reasoning in legal knowledge based systems

In attempting to build intelligent litigation support tools, we have moved beyond first generation, production rule legal expert systems. Our work integrates rule based and case based reasoning with intelligent information retrieval. When using the case based reasoning methodology, or in our case the specialisation of case based retrieval, we need to be aware of how to retrieve relevant experience. Our research, in the legal domain, specifies an approach to the retrieval problem which relies heavily on an extended object oriented/rule based system architecture that is supplemented with causal background information. We use a distributed agent architecture to help support the reasoning process of lawyers. Our approach to integrating rule based reasoning, case based reasoning and case based retrieval is contrasted to the CABARET and PROLEXS architectures which rely on a centralised blackboard architecture. We discuss in detail how our various cooperating agents interact, and provide examples of the system at work. The IKBALS system uses a specialised induction algorithm to induce rules from cases. These rules are then used as indices during the case based retrieval process. Because we aim to build legal support tools which can be modified to suit various domains rather than single purpose legal expert systems, we focus on principles behind developing legal knowledge based systems. The original domain chosen was theAccident Compensation Act 1989 (Victoria, Australia), which relates to the provision of benefits for employees injured at work. For various reasons, which are indicated in the paper, we changed our domain to that ofCredit Act 1984 (Victoria, Australia). This Act regulates the provision of loans by financial institutions. The rule based part of our system which provides advice on the Credit Act has been commercially developed in conjunction with a legal firm. We indicate how this work has lead to the development of a methodology for constructing rule based legal knowledge based systems. We explain the process of integrating this existing commercial rule based system with the case base reasoning and retrieval architecture.

Исследования и испытания алгоритмов автоматической пилотажно-навигационной системы малогабаритного беспилотного летательного аппарата = Research and testing of automatic navigation management system’s algorithms for small unmanned aerial vehicle

В статье представлено развитие принципа построения автоматической пилотажно-навигационной системы (АПНС) для беспилотного летательного аппарата (БЛА). Принцип заключается в синтезе комплексных систем управления БПЛА не только на основе использования алгоритмов БИНС, но и алгоритмов, объединяющих в себе решение задач формирования и отработки сформированной траектории резервированной системой управления и навигации. Приведены результаты аналитического исследования и данные летных экспериментов разработанных алгоритмов АПНС БЛА, обеспечивающих дополнительное резервирование алгоритмов навигации и наделяющих БЛА новым функциональной способностью по выходу в заданную точку пространства с заданной скоростью в заданный момент времени с учетом атмосферных ветровых возмущений. Предложена и испытана методика идентификации параметров воздушной атмосферы: направления и скорости W ветра. Данные летных испытаний полученного решения задачи терминальной навигации демонстрируют устойчивую работу синтезированных алгоритмов управления в различных метеоусловиях. The article presents a progress in principle of development of automatic navigation management system (ANMS) for small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The principle defines a development of integrated control systems for UAV based on tight coupling of strap down inertial navigation system algorithms and algorithms of redundant flight management system to form and control flight trajectory. The results of the research and flight testing of the developed ANMS UAV algorithms are presented. The system demonstrates advanced functional redundancy of UAV guidance. The system enables new UAV capability to perform autonomous multidimensional navigation along waypoints with controlled speed and time of arrival taking into account wind. The paper describes the technique for real-time identification of atmosphere parameters such as wind direction and wind speed. The flight test results demonstrate robustness of the algorithms in diverse meteorological conditions.

Developing Porphyra/salmon integrated aquaculture for bioremediation and diversification of the aquaculture industry

FUNCTIONAL-FORM GROUPS; RED ALGAE; ATLANTIC SALMON; NEW-HAMPSHIRE; NITROGEN; PHOSPHORUS; RHODOPHYTA; TEMPERATURE; NUTRIENTS; KJELLMAN

Computing explanations for interactive constraint-based systems

Constraint programming has emerged as a successful paradigm for modelling combinatorial problems arising from practical situations. In many of those situations, we are not provided with an immutable set of constraints. Instead, a user will modify his requirements, in an interactive fashion, until he is satisfied with a solution. Examples of such applications include, amongst others, model-based diagnosis, expert systems, product configurators. The system he interacts with must be able to assist him by showing the consequences of his requirements. Explanations are the ideal tool for providing this assistance. However, existing notions of explanations fail to provide sufficient information. We define new forms of explanations that aim to be more informative. Even if explanation generation is a very hard task, in the applications we consider, we must manage to provide a satisfactory level of interactivity and, therefore, we cannot afford long computational times. We introduce the concept of representative sets of relaxations, a compact set of relaxations that shows the user at least one way to satisfy each of his requirements and at least one way to relax them, and present an algorithm that efficiently computes such sets. We introduce the concept of most soluble relaxations, maximising the number of products they allow. We present algorithms to compute such relaxations in times compatible with interactivity, achieving this by indifferently making use of different types of compiled representations. We propose to generalise the concept of prime implicates to constraint problems with the concept of domain consequences, and suggest to generate them as a compilation strategy. This sets a new approach in compilation, and allows to address explanation-related queries in an efficient way. We define ordered automata to compactly represent large sets of domain consequences, in an orthogonal way from existing compilation techniques that represent large sets of solutions.

Intelligent technologies for nuclear power systems: heuristic and neural tools

The consecutive, partly overlapping emergence of expert systems and then neural computation methods among intelligent technologies, is reflected in the evolving scene of their application to nuclear engineering. This paper provides a bird's eye view of the state of the application in the domain, along with a review of a particular task, the one perhaps economically more important: refueling design in nuclear power reactors.

Self-adaptability and man-in-the-loop: a dilemma in autonomic computing systems

This paper addresses some controversial issues relating to two main questions. Firstly, we discuss 'man-in-the loop' issues in SAACS. Some people advocate this must always be so that man's decisions can override autonomic components. In this case, the system has two subsystems - man and machine. Can we, however, have a fully autonomic machine - with no man in sight; even for short periods of time? What kinds of systems require man to always be in the loop? What is the optimum balance in self-to-human control? How do we determine the optimum? How far can we go in describing self-behaviour? How does a SAACS system handle unexpected behaviour? Secondly, what are the challenges/obstacles in testing SAACS in the context of self/human dilemma? Are there any lesson to be learned from other programmes e.g. Star-wars, aviation and space explorations? What role human factors and behavioural models play whilst in interacting with SAACS?.