Error, Confidence, and Cost in Engineering Computations

The questions that one should answer in engineering computations - deterministic, probabilistic/randomized, as well as heuristic - are (i) how good the computed results/outputs are and (ii) how much the cost in terms of amount of computation and the amount of storage utilized in getting the outputs is. The absolutely errorfree quantities as well as the completely errorless computations done in a natural process can never be captured by any means that we have at our disposal. While the computations including the input real quantities in nature/natural processes are exact, all the computations that we do using a digital computer or are carried out in an embedded form are never exact. The input data for such computations are also never exact because any measuring instrument has inherent error of a fixed order associated with it and this error, as a matter of hypothesis and not as a matter of assumption, is not less than 0.005 per cent. Here by error we imply relative error bounds. The fact that exact error is never known under any circumstances and any context implies that the term error is nothing but error-bounds. Further, in engineering computations, it is the relative error or, equivalently, the relative error-bounds (and not the absolute error) which is supremely important in providing us the information regarding the quality of the results/outputs. Another important fact is that inconsistency and/or near-consistency in nature, i.e., in problems created from nature is completely nonexistent while in our modelling of the natural problems we may introduce inconsistency or near-inconsistency due to human error or due to inherent non-removable error associated with any measuring device or due to assumptions introduced to make the problem solvable or more easily solvable in practice. Thus if we discover any inconsistency or possibly any near-inconsistency in a mathematical model, it is certainly due to any or all of the three foregoing factors. We do, however, go ahead to solve such inconsistent/near-consistent problems and do get results that could be useful in real-world situations. The talk considers several deterministic, probabilistic, and heuristic algorithms in numerical optimisation, other numerical and statistical computations, and in PAC (probably approximately correct) learning models. It highlights the quality of the results/outputs through specifying relative error-bounds along with the associated confidence level, and the cost, viz., amount of computations and that of storage through complexity. It points out the limitation in error-free computations (wherever possible, i.e., where the number of arithmetic operations is finite and is known a priori) as well as in the usage of interval arithmetic. Further, the interdependence among the error, the confidence, and the cost is discussed.

Near infrared detectors based on HgSe and HgCdSe quantum dots generated at the liquid-liquid interface

HgSe and Hg0.5Cd0.5Se quantum dos (QDs) are synthesized at room temperature by a novel liquid-liquid interface method and their photodetection properties in the near-IR region are investigated. The photodetection properties of our Te-free systems are found to be comparable to those of the previously reported high performance QD vis-IR detectors including HgTe. The present synthesis indicates the cost-effectiveness of selenium based IR detectors owing to the abundance and lower toxicity of selenium compared to tellurium.

Fabrication of large-area PbSe films at the organic-aqueous interface and their near-infrared photoresponse

An organic-aqueous interfacial reaction at room temperature has been employed to synthesize large-area self-assembled films consisting of PbSe single crystallites. The use of the films for the low-cost fabrication of IR-photodetectors has been explored. (111)-oriented single crystallites of PbSe self-assemble to form robust large-area films. The near-infrared photoresponse of the film measured at room temperature showed large responsivity and gain owing to trap-associated mechanisms. Low-cost, mild reaction conditions and tunability of the nature of deposits make the present strategy useful for synthesizing large-area films of functional materials for possible opto-electronic applications.

PLUTO plus : Near-Complete Modeling of Affine Transformations for Parallelism and Locality

Affine transformations have proven to be very powerful for loop restructuring due to their ability to model a very wide range of transformations. A single multi-dimensional affine function can represent a long and complex sequence of simpler transformations. Existing affine transformation frameworks like the Pluto algorithm, that include a cost function for modern multicore architectures where coarse-grained parallelism and locality are crucial, consider only a sub-space of transformations to avoid a combinatorial explosion in finding the transformations. The ensuing practical tradeoffs lead to the exclusion of certain useful transformations, in particular, transformation compositions involving loop reversals and loop skewing by negative factors. In this paper, we propose an approach to address this limitation by modeling a much larger space of affine transformations in conjunction with the Pluto algorithm's cost function. We perform an experimental evaluation of both, the effect on compilation time, and performance of generated codes. The evaluation shows that our new framework, Pluto+, provides no degradation in performance in any of the Polybench benchmarks. For Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) codes with periodic boundary conditions, it provides a mean speedup of 1.33x over Pluto. We also show that Pluto+ does not increase compile times significantly. Experimental results on Polybench show that Pluto+ increases overall polyhedral source-to-source optimization time only by 15%. In cases where it improves execution time significantly, it increased polyhedral optimization time only by 2.04x.

Cost effective campaigning in social networks

Campaigners are increasingly using online social networking platforms for promoting products, ideas and information. A popular method of promoting a product or even an idea is incentivizing individuals to evangelize the idea vigorously by providing them with referral rewards in the form of discounts, cash backs, or social recognition. Due to budget constraints on scarce resources such as money and manpower, it may not be possible to provide incentives for the entire population, and hence incentives need to be allocated judiciously to appropriate individuals for ensuring the highest possible outreach size. We aim to do the same by formulating and solving an optimization problem using percolation theory. In particular, we compute the set of individuals that are provided incentives for minimizing the expected cost while ensuring a given outreach size. We also solve the problem of computing the set of individuals to be incentivized for maximizing the outreach size for given cost budget. The optimization problem turns out to be non trivial; it involves quantities that need to be computed by numerically solving a fixed point equation. Our primary contribution is, that for a fairly general cost structure, we show that the optimization problems can be solved by solving a simple linear program. We believe that our approach of using percolation theory to formulate an optimization problem is the first of its kind. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fiscal imbalances, inflation and sovereign default dynamics

Resumen: La cuestión central que este artículo busca responder es como la política monetaria puede afectar el comportamiento de equilibrio de primas por riesgo soberano y cesación de pagos. El artículo se basa en el modelo de “una-tasa-interés”. La deuda pública se hace riesgosa a causa de una política fiscal activa, como en Uribe (2006), reflejando la habilidad limitada de la autoridad fiscal para controlar el superávit primario. El problema de insolvencia es debido a una oleada de mala suerte (shocks negativos que afectan el superávit primario). Pero en contraste a los resultados de Uribe, a medida que aumenta el costo de la deuda soberana (que resulta de un excedente primario débil), la cesación de pagos se anticipa y es reflejada por una creciente prima de riesgo en el país y una probabilidad de cesación de pagos. La cesación de pagos se define como un incumplimiento de un acuerdo contractual y por ende la decisión es tomada por la autoridad fiscal. Mientras tanto, objetivos conflictivos entre la autoridad monetaria y fiscal juegan un rol importante en llevar a la autoridad fiscal a la cesación de pagos sobre sus pasivos. La característica de la política del gobierno necesaria para restaurar el equilibrio después de la cesación de pagos también es analizada.

Economic Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Services Losses: Cost of Policy Inaction

52 p.

Effects of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in Germany on European Electricity Exchange and Welfare

28 p.

Economic Efficiency, Environmental Effectiveness and Political Feasibility of Energy Efficiency Rebates: The Case of the Spanish Energy Efficiency 'Renove' Plan

29 p.

The principles involved in a factory cost system

Successful management has been defined as the art of spending money wisely and well. Profits may not be the end and all of business but they are certainly the test of practicality. Everything worth while should pay for itself. One proposal is no better than another, except as in the working-out it yields better results.

Experimental design in fluvial ichthyology: getting the most for your money

In field biology, cost efficiency is an essential element of experimental design, with ramifications extending well beyond the basic monetary considerations associated with labour and equipment acquisition. Current economic constraints often require scientists to undertake many technical, secretarial and managerial tasks in addition to those associated with data collection, analysis, interpretation and publication. Because the time spent to process material in the laboratory can rarely be shortened without compromising the integrity of the results, it is imperative that field experiments be well-organised, addressing as many aspects of the problem as possible during the same sampling excursion. The sampling strategy employed should provide a maximum of good field data with a minimum cost of time and effort.

The cost of action: CRM investment in the Philippines

Knowing the cost of investment in coastal resources management (CRM) is important especially in understanding the cost of undertaking one and ascertaining whether the outcomes are worth the money spent. In the Philippines, various CRM projects have already been initiated and no studies have tried to account for the total level of investment. This paper provides an estimate of money spent or invested on CRM in the Philippines and examines the investment per km2 of coral reefs.

Wavelength-tuneable liquid crystal lasers from the visible to the near-infrared

The study of band-edge lasing from dye-doped chiral nematic liquid crystals has thus far been largely restricted to visible wavelengths. In this paper, a wide range of commercially available laser dyes are examined for their suitability as infrared emitters within a chiral nematic host. Problems such as poor solubility and reduced quantum efficiencies are overcome, and successful band-edge lasing is demonstrated within the range of 735-850 nm, using the dyes LD800, HITC-P and DOTC-P. This paper also reports on progress towards widely tuneable liquid crystal lasers, capable of emission in the region 460- 850 nm. Key to this is the use of common pump source, capable of simultaneously exciting all of the dyes (both infrared and visible) that are present within the system. Towards this aim, we successfully demonstrate near-infrared lasing (800 nm) facilitated by Förster energy transfer between the visible dye DCM, and the infra-red dye LD800, enabling pump wavelengths anywhere between 420 and 532 nm to be used. These results demonstrate that small and low-cost tuneable visible to near-infrared laser sources are achievable, using a single common pump source. Such devices are envisaged to have wide-ranging applications including medical imaging (including optical coherence tomography), point-of-care optical medical diagnostics (such as flow cytometry), telecommunications, and optical signatures for security coatings. © 2011 Copyright Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).

Wavelength-tuneable liquid crystal lasers from the visible to the near-infrared

The study of band-edge lasing from dye-doped chiral nematic liquid crystals has thus far been largely restricted to visible wavelengths. In this paper, a wide range of commercially available laser dyes are examined for their suitability as infrared emitters within a chiral nematic host. Problems such as poor solubility and reduced quantum efficiencies are overcome, and successful band-edge lasing is demonstrated within the range of 735-850 nm, using the dyes LD800, HITC-P and DOTC-P. This paper also reports on progress towards widely tuneable liquid crystal lasers, capable of emission in the region 460- 850 nm. Key to this is the use of common pump source, capable of simultaneously exciting all of the dyes (both infrared and visible) that are present within the system. Towards this aim, we successfully demonstrate near-infrared lasing (800 nm) facilitated by Förster energy transfer between the visible dye DCM, and the infra-red dye LD800, enabling pump wavelengths anywhere between 420 and 532 nm to be used. These results demonstrate that small and low-cost tuneable visible to near-infrared laser sources are achievable, using a single common pump source. Such devices are envisaged to have wide-ranging applications including medical imaging (including optical coherence tomography), point-of-care optical medical diagnostics (such as flow cytometry), telecommunications, and optical signatures for security coatings. © 2011 Copyright Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).

A cost-effective atomic force microscope for undergraduate control laboratories

This paper presents a simple, cost-effective and robust atomic force microscope (AFM), which has been purposely designed and built for use as a teaching aid in undergraduate controls labs. The guiding design principle is to have all components be open and visible to the students, so the inner functioning of the microscope has been made clear to see. All of the parts but one are off the shelf, and assembly time is generally less than two days, which makes the microscope a robust instrument that is readily handled by the students with little chance of damage. While the scanning resolution is nowhere near that of a commercial instrument, it is more than sufficient to take interesting scans of micrometer-scale objects. A survey of students after their having used the AFM resulted in a generally good response, with 80% agreeing that they had a positive learning experience. © 2009 IEEE.