Data surveillance for infectious diseases: models, complex networks and machine learning

In this thesis, we investigate the role of applied physics in epidemiological surveillance through the application of mathematical models, network science and machine learning. The spread of a communicable disease depends on many biological, social, and health factors. The large masses of data available make it possible, on the one hand, to monitor the evolution and spread of pathogenic organisms; on the other hand, to study the behavior of people, their opinions and habits. Presented here are three lines of research in which an attempt was made to solve real epidemiological problems through data analysis and the use of statistical and mathematical models. In Chapter 1, we applied language-inspired Deep Learning models to transform influenza protein sequences into vectors encoding their information content. We then attempted to reconstruct the antigenic properties of different viral strains using regression models and to identify the mutations responsible for vaccine escape. In Chapter 2, we constructed a compartmental model to describe the spread of a bacterium within a hospital ward. The model was informed and validated on time series of clinical measurements, and a sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different control measures. Finally (Chapter 3) we reconstructed the network of retweets among COVID-19 themed Twitter users in the early months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. By means of community detection algorithms and centrality measures, we characterized users’ attention shifts in the network, showing that scientific communities, initially the most retweeted, lost influence over time to national political communities. In the Conclusion, we highlighted the importance of the work done in light of the main contemporary challenges for epidemiological surveillance. In particular, we present reflections on the importance of nowcasting and forecasting, the relationship between data and scientific research, and the need to unite the different scales of epidemiological surveillance.

International horse movements and spread of equine diseases: Equine Infectious Anaemia and Glanders - two examples

International trade with horses is important and continuously increasing. Therefore the risk of spread of infectious diseases is permanently present. Within this context the worldwide situation of equine vector-borne diseases and of other diseases which are notifiable to the World Organisation of Animal Health (OIE), is described. Furthermore it provides estimates of the numbers of horse movements between these countries, as well as information on import requirements and preventive measures for reducing the risk of disease spread. According to TRACES (Trade Control and Expert System of the European Union) data from 2009 and 2010 81 horses per week were imported from North America into Europe, 42 horses per week from South America, 11 horses per week from the North of Africa and the African horse sichness free-zone of South Africa, 28 per week from the Middle East and the rest of Asia and approximately 4 horses per week from Australia / Oceania. Trade within the European Union resulted amongst others in the introduction of Equine Infectious Anaemia (EIA) from Roma- nia into other European countries. Another example is the suspected case of glanders which occurred after importation of horses from Leb- anon via France and Germany into Switzerland in July 2011.

Co-existing conditions for deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases in Australia

Objective: To examine the frequency distribution of co-existing conditions for deaths where the underlying cause was infectious and parasitic diseases. Materials and methods: Besides the underlying cause of death, the distributions of co-existing conditions for deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases were examined in total and by various age and sex groups, at individual and chapter levels, using 1998 Australian mortality data. Results: In addition to the underlying cause of death, the average number of reported co-existing conditions for a single infectious and parasitic death was 1.62. The most common co-existing conditions were respiratory failure, acute renal failure non-specific causes, ischaemic heart disease, pneumonia and diabetes. When studying the distribution of co-existing conditions at the ICD-9 chapter level, it was found that the circulatory system diseases were the most important. There was an increasing trend in the number of reported co-existing conditions from 60 years of age upwards. Gender differences existed in the frequency of some reported co-existing conditions. The most common organism types of co-existing conditions were other bacterial infection and other viruses. Conclusions: The study indicated that the quality of death certificates is less than satisfactory for the 1998 Australian mortality data. The findings may be helpful in clarifying the ICD coding rules and the development of disease prevention strategies. (C) 2003 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Persistent infectious and tropical diseases in immigrant correctional populations

A number of infectious diseases amongst travelers and the immigrant populations are a major public health concern. Some have a long incubation period or remain asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic for many years before leading to significant clinical manifestations and/or complications. HIV, hepatitis B and C, tuberculosis or latent syphilis are among the most significant persistent diseases in migrants. Schistosomiasis and strongyloidiasis, for instance, are persistent helminthic infections that may cause significant morbidity, particularly in patients co-infected with HIV, hepatitis B and C. Chagas disease, which was initially confined to Latin America, must also now be considered in immigrants from endemic countries. Visceral leishmaniasis and malaria are other examples of parasitic diseases that must be taken into account by physicians treating incarcerated migrants. The focus of this review article is on the risk of neglected tropical diseases in particularly vulnerable correctional populations and on the risk of infectious diseases that commonly affect migrants but which are often underestimated.

Infectious endocarditis caused by Nocardia sp.: histological morphology as a guide for the specific diagnosis

Nocardia is a rare opportunistic agent, which may affect immunocompromised individuals causing lung infections and exceptionally infective endocarditis (IE). There are few reports of IE caused by Nocardia sp., usually involving biological prostheses but rarely in natural valves. Its accurate microbiological identification may be hampered by the similarity with Rhodococcus equi and Corynebacterium spp. Here we report a case of native mitral valve IE caused by this agent in which the clinical absence of response to vancomycin and the suggestion of Nocardia sp. by histology pointed to the misdiagnosis of Corynebacterium spp. in blood cultures. The histological morphology can advise on the need for expansion of cultivation time and use of extra microbiological procedures that lead to the differential diagnosis with Corynebacterium spp. and other agents, which is essential to establish timely specific treatment, especially in immunocompromised patients.

STD syndrome packets: Improving syndromic management of sexually transmitted diseases in developing countries

Objective: To design, introduce, and evaluate STD syndrome packets containing recommended drugs for each syndrome, four condoms, a partner treatment card, and a patient information leaflet, with the goal of improving sexually transmitted disease (STD) case management. Methods: Packet design evolved around available packaging technology, informed by pilot testing with nurses working in primary care clinics, doctors in private medical practices, and patients with an STD, in Hlabisa, South Africa. Evaluation 1 year later included analysis of distribution records and interviews with 16 nurses and 61 patients. Results: A cheap packet (2 U, S, cents each, excluding contents) compatible with current legislation was designed and introduced to six public sector clinics and as a short pilot to five private medical practices, Four thousand eighty-five packets were distributed to the clinics, equivalent to approximately 115% of the STDs reported over that period. All 16 nurses reported using the packets, but only 63% did so all the time because of occasional supply problems, All believed the packets improved treatment by saving time (75%), improving supply of condoms and partner cards (44%), and making treatment easier (56%), Patients also responded positively, and most said they would buy a packet (up to $5) at a pharmacy (84%) or store (63%) if available. Conclusions: The STD syndrome packets have the potential to improve STD syndromic management by standardizing therapy and improving the supply of condoms, partner cards, and information leaflets. Packets are popular with practitioners and patients, but consistent supply is essential for maximal impact, There may be scope for social marketing of the packets, which could further increase use.

Bacterial triggers and autoimmune rheumatic diseases

Autoimmune rheumatic diseases are generally considered as a multifactorial aetiology, mainly genetic susceptibility combined with environmental triggers of which bacteria are considered one of the most prominent. Among the rheumatic diseases where bacterial agents are more clearly involved as triggers are: reactive arthritis (ReA), rheumatic fever (RF) and Lyme disease. The role of bacterial infections in inducing other seronegative spondyloarthritis and antiphospholipid antibody syndrome has been hypothesized but is still not proven. The classic form of ReA is associated with the presence of HLA-B27 and is triggered by the urethritis or enteritis causing pathogens Chlamydia trachomatis and the enterobacteria Salmonella, Shigella, and Yersinia, respectively. But several other pathogens such as Brucella, Leptospira, Mycobacteria, Neisseria, Staphylococcus and Streptococcus have also been reported to cause ReA. RF is due to an autoimmune reaction triggered by an untreated throat infection by Streptococcus pyogenes in susceptible individuals. Carditis is the most serious manifestation of RF and HLA-DR7 is predominantly observed in the development of valvular lesions. Lyme disease is a tick-transmitted disease caused by the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi. Knowledge is limited about how this spirochete interacts with human tissues and cells. Some data report that Borrelia burgdorferi can manipulate resident cells towards a pro- but also anti-inflammatory reaction and persist over a long period of time inside the human body or even inside human cells.

Involvement of the Helicobacter pylori plasticity region and cag pathogenicity island genes in the development of gastroduodenal diseases

Infection by Helicobacter pylori is associated with the development of several gastroduodenal diseases, including gastritis, peptic ulcer disease (gastric ulcers and duodenal ulcers), and gastric adenocarcinoma. Although a number of putative virulence factors have been reported for H. pylori, there are conflicting results regarding their association with specific H. pylori-related diseases. In this work, we investigated the presence of virB11 and cagT, located in the left half of the cag pathogenicity island (cagPAI), and the jhp917-jhp918 sequences, components of the dupA gene located in the plasticity zone of H. pylori, in Brazilian isolates of H. pylori. We also examined the association between these genes and H. pylori-related gastritis, peptic ulcer disease, and gastric and duodenal ulcers in an attempt to identify a gene marker for clinical outcomes related to infection by H. pylori. The cagT gene was associated with peptic ulcer disease and gastric ulcers, whereas the virB11 gene was detected in nearly all of the samples. The dupA gene was not associated with duodenal ulcers or any gastroduodenal disease here analyzed. These results suggest that cagT could be a useful prognostic marker for the development of peptic ulcer disease in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. They also indicate that cagT is associated with greater virulence and peptic ulceration, and that this gene is an essential component of the type IV secretion system of H. pylori.

A Survey of Diseases in Passeriform Birds Obtained From Illegal Wildlife Trade in Sao Paulo City, Brazil

The order Passeriformes comprises the largest number of families and species of birds of any avian order. Brazil is rich in passerine birds, which are a common victim of wildlife trafficking in Brazil. Annually, many birds die as a consequence of illegal trade. To investigate the occurrence of the principle diseases and to identify the main causes of death in smuggled passerine birds, the cause of death was evaluated in 360 passerine birds confiscated within the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Causes of death were determined by anatomopathologic and microbiologic studies. Infectious diseases were the cause of death of most birds, which corresponded to 78.6% of cases. The most common infectious diseases were poxvirus infection, aspergillosis, and coccidiosis. Although the etiologic agents of these diseases can coexist asymptomatically within hosts, once the host`s immunity is compromised, the pathogen multiplies quickly and causes disease. The results of this study may help to improve the care of passerine birds in captivity and increase the survival rate of confiscated birds. Results may also be useful for in situ conservation programs that investigate the reintroduction of confiscated species or captive birds.

Development of disabled, replication-defective gene transfer vectors from the Jembrana disease virus, a new infectious agent of cattle

Jembrana disease virus (JDV) is a newly isolated and characterised bovine lentivirus. It causes an acute disease in Ball cattle (Bos javanicus). which can be readily transmitted to susceptible cattle with 17% mortality. There is as yet no treatment or preventive vaccine. We have developed a gene transfer vector system based on JDV that has three components. The first of the components is a bicistronic transfer vector plasmid that was constructed to contain cis-sequences from the JDV genome, including 5 '- and 3 ' -long terminal repeats (LTRs), 0.4 kb of truncated gag and 1.1 kb of 3 ' -env, a multiple cloning site to accommodate the gene(s) of interest for transfer, and an internal ribosome entry site plus the neomycin phosphotransferase (Neo) gene cassette for antibiotic selection. The second element is a packaging plasmid that contains trans-sequences. including gag, pol. vif, tar and rev: but without the env and packaging signals. The third is a plasmid encoding the G glycoprotein of vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV-G) to supply the vector an envelope for pseudotyping. Cotransfection of 293T cells with these three plasmid components produced VSV-G pseudotyped. disabled, replication defective, bicistronic JDV vectors encoding the green fluorescent protein (EGFP) and the Neo resistance selection maker simultaneously with a titre range of (0.4-1.2) x 10(6) CFU/ml. Transduction of several replicating primary and transformed cells from cattle, primate and human sources and importantly growth-arrested cells with the JDV vectors showed high efficiency of EGFP gene transfer at 35-75%, which was stable and the expression of EGFP was long term. Furthermore, these JDV vectors were designed to suit the inclusion and expression of genes corresponding to JDV specific proteins, such as gag or env, for the development of vaccines for Jembrana disease. This strategy should also be applicable to other bovine diseases as wall. The design and construction of the JDV vector system should facilitate the study of the lentivirology and pathogenesis of the diseases associated with JDV or other bovine virus infections. To our knowledge, this is the first such vector system developed from a cattle virus. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular and functional analyses of Kunjin virus infectious cDNA clones demonstrate the essential roles for NS2A in virus assembly and for a nonconservative residue in NS3 in RNA replication

A number of full-length cDNA clones of Kunjin virus (KUN) were previously prepared; it was shown that two of them, pAKUN and FLSDX, differed in specific infectivities of corresponding in vitro transcribed RNAs by similar to100,000-fold (A. A. Khromykh et al., J. Virol. 72:7270-7279, 1998). In this study, we analyzed a possible genetic determinant(s) of the observed differences in infectivity initially by sequencing the entire cDNAs of both clones and comparing them with the published sequence of the parental KUN strain MRM61C. We found six common amino acid residues in both cDNA clones that were different from those in the published MRM61C sequence but were similar to those in the published sequences of other flaviviruses from the same subgroup. pAKUN clone had four additional codon changes, i.e., Ile59 to Asn and Arg175 to Lys in NS2A and Tyr518 to His and Ser557 to Pro in NS3. Three of these substitutions except the previously shown marker mutation, Arg175 to Lys in NS2A, reverted to the wild-type sequence in the virus eventually recovered from pAKUN RNA-transfected BHK cells, demonstrating the functional importance of these residues in viral replication and/or viral assembly. Exchange of corresponding DNA fragments between pAKUN and FLSDX clones and site-directed mutagenesis revealed that the Tyr518-to-His mutation in NS3 was responsible for an similar to5-fold decrease in specific infectivity of transcribed RNA, while the Ile59-to-Asn mutation in NS2A completely blocked virus production. Correction of the Asn59 in pAKUN NS2A to the wild-type lie residue resulted in complete restoration of RNA infectivity. Replication of KUN replicon RNA with an Ile59-to-Asn substitution in NS2A and with a Ser557-to-Pro substitution in NS3 was not affected, while the Tyr518-to-His substitution in NS3 led to severe inhibition of RNA replication. The impaired function of the mutated NS2A in production of infectious virus was complemented in trans by the helper wild-type NS2A produced from the KUN replicon RNA. However, replicon RNA with mutated NS2A could not be packaged in trans by the KUN structural proteins. The data demonstrated essential roles for the KUN nonstructural protein NS2A in virus assembly and for NS3 in RNA replication and identified specific single-amino-acid residues involved in these functions.