Marine Seaweed Invasions : the Ecology of Introduced Fucus evanescens

Biological invasions are an important issue of global change and an increased understanding of invasion processes is of crucial importance for both conservation managers and international trade. In this thesis, I have studied the invasion of the brown seaweed Fucus evanescens, to investigate the fate and effect of a perennial, habitat-forming seaweed introduced to a coastal ecosystem. A long-term study of the spread of F. evanescens in Öresund (southern Sweden) showed that the species was able to expand its range quickly during the first 20 years after the introduction, but that the expansion has been slow during the subsequent 30 years. Both in Öresund and in Skagerrak, the species is largely restricted to sites where native fucoids are scarce. Laboratory experiments showed that the restricted spread of F. evanescens cannot be explained by the investigated abiotic factors (wave exposure and salinity), although salinity restricts the species from spreading into the Baltic Sea. Neither did I find evidence for that herbivores or epibiota provide biotic resistance to the invader. On the contrary, F. evanescens was less consumed by native herbivores, both compared to the native fucoids and to F. evanescens populations in its native range, and little overgrown by epiphytes. Instead, the restricted spread may be due to competition from native seaweeds, probably by pre-occupation of space, and the establishment has probably been facilitated by disturbance. The studies provided little support for a general enemy release in introduced seaweeds. The low herbivore consumption of F. evanescens in Sweden could not be explained by release from specialist herbivores. Instead, high levels of chemical anti-herbivore defence metabolites (phlorotannins) could explain the pattern of herbivore preference for different fucoids. Likewise, the low epibiotic colonisation of F. evanescens plants could be explained by high resistance to epibiotic survival. This shows that colonisation of invading seaweeds by native herbivores and epibionts depends on properties of the invading species. The large differences between fucoid species in their quality as food and habitat for epibionts and herbivores imply that invasions of such habitat-forming species may have a considerable effect on a number of other species in shallow coastal areas. However, since F. evanescens did not exclude other fucoids in its new range, its effect on the recipient biota is probably small.

Colonization of gastropods on subtidal reefs depends on density in adjacent habitats, not on disturbance regime

[EN] Habitats dominated by algal canopies are often altered by physical disturbances of varying severity, changing environmental conditions and biological processes. We used Artificial Seaweed Units (ASUs) to test whether severity of physical disturbances on algal canopies affects the post-disturbance colonization of gastropods on subtidal reefs. Specifically, we examined patterns of assemblage structure of gastropods to test the hypothesis that the extent and intensity of canopy removal affects the post-disturbance colonization of ASUs, testing the consistency of these effects among four regions encompassing a 68 latitudinal gradient in southwestern Australia. Because adjacent habitats can act as a source of new colonists (either as drifting migrants or as a source of propagules) from the perimeter surrounding perturbed areas, we also predicted that patterns of colonization (types and total abundances of colonizers) were influenced by the available pool of individuals at the scale of reefs. Three reefs were selected within each region. On each reef, ASUs were placed in the centre of circular canopy clearings of different size (0, 3, 13 and 50 m2) and intensity (50% vs 100%), and retrieved after 3 months. Resulting assemblages occupying the ASUs were quantitatively representative of the adjacent (undisturbed), algal-associated, assemblages at the scale of reef. Within reefs, recruited assemblages largely mimicked those associated with erect red algae. However, neither disturbance size nor intensity affected the colonization patterns across reefs and regions. These results suggest that algal-associated gastropods, regardless of the prevalent mode of dispersion, are resilient to physical disturbances to canopies across broad geographical regions as long as the pool of potential colonists is maintained. A high dispersal ability of gastropods likely ensures a quick colonization of recovering algal habitats.

Impact of forest fragmentation and disturbance on the endangered tropical tree Prunus africana (Rosaceae)

Anthropogene Fragmentierung und Störung von Wäldern beeinflussen ökologische Prozesse. Darüber hinaus werden genetische Drift und Inzucht verstärkt und die Fitness von Populationen beeinträchtigt. Um die Einflüsse von Fragmentierung und Störung auf die Biodiversität und Prozesse in tropischen Wäldern zu ermitteln, habe ich im „Kakamega Forest“, West-Kenia, die Baumart Prunus africana genauer untersucht. Dabei lag der Fokus auf (i) der Frugivorengemeinschaft und Samenausbreitung, (ii) der Kleinsäugergemeinschaft im Kontext der Samenprädation und (iii) der genetische Populationsstruktur von Keimlingen und adulten Bäumen. Der Vergleich von Keimlingen mit adulten Bäumen ermöglicht es, Veränderungen im Genfluss zwischen Generationen festzustellen. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass im untersuchten Waldgebiet insgesamt 49 frugivore Arten (Affen und Vögel) vorkommen. Dabei lag die Gesamtartenzahl im zusammenhängenden Wald höher als in den isoliert liegenden Fragmenten. An den Früchten von P. africana konnten insgesamt 36 Arten fressend beobachtet werden. Hier jedoch wurden in Fragmenten eine leicht erhöhte Frugivorenzahl sowie marginal signifikant erhöhte Samenausbreitungsraten nachgewiesen. Der Vergleich von stark gestörten mit weniger gestörten Flächen zeigte eine höhere Gesamtartenzahl sowie eine signifikant höhere Frugivorenzahl in P. africana in stark gestörten Flächen. Entsprechend war die Samenausbreitungsrate in stark gestörten Flächen marginal signifikant erhöht. Diese Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die quantitative Samenausbreitung in fragmentierten und gestörten Flächen etwas erhöht ist und somit eine gewisse Artenredundanz besteht, die den Verlust einzelner Arten ausgleichen könnte. Prunus africana Samen, die auf dem Boden lagen, wurden hauptsächlich von einer Nagerart (Praomys cf. jacksonii) erbeutet. Dabei war in gestörten Waldbereichen eine tendenziell höhere Prädatoraktivität zu beobachten als in weniger gestörten. Zudem waren einzelne Samen im Gegensatz zu Samengruppen in gestörten Flächen signifikant höherem Prädationsdruck ausgesetzt. Diese Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Fragmentierung sowie anthropogene Störungen auf unterschiedliche Prozesse im Lebenszyklus eines tropischen Baumes gegensätzliche Effekte haben können. Eine Extrapolation von einem auf einen anderen Prozess kann somit nicht erfolgen. Die genetische Differenzierung der adulten Baumpopulationen war gering (FST = 0.026). Der Großteil ihrer Variation (~ 97 %) lag innerhalb der Populationen, was intensiven Genfluss in der Vergangenheit widerspiegelt. Die genetische Differenzierung der Keimlinge war etwas erhöht (FST = 0.086) und ~ 91 % ihrer Variation lag innerhalb der Populationen. Im Gegensatz zu den adulten Bäumen konnte ich für Keimlinge ein „Isolation-by-distance“-Muster feststellen. Somit sind erste Hinweise auf begrenzten Genfluss im Keimlingsstadium infolge von Fragmentierung gegeben. Obwohl die Momentaufnahmen im Freiland keine Abnahme in der Frugivorenzahl und Samenausbreitung von P. africana als Folge von Fragmentierung beobachten ließen, weisen die Ergebnisse der genetischen Studie auf einen bereits reduzierten Genaustausch zwischen den Populationen hin. Somit lässt sich feststellen, dass die Faktoren Fragmentierung und Störung genetische Diversität, ökologische Prozesse und Artendiversität in Wäldern jeweils auf unterschiedliche Weise beeinflussen. Um Konsequenzen derartiger Einflüsse folgerichtig abschätzen zu können, sind Studien auf unterschiedlichen Diversitätsebenen unabdingbar.

Frugivores, seed dispersal and tree regeneration along a human disturbance gradient in East African tropical rainforests

Samenausbreitung und Regeneration von Bäumen sind wichtig für den langfristigen Bestand von Baum- und Frugivorengemeinschaften in tropischen Regenwäldern. Zunehmende Rohdung und Degradation gefährden den Ablauf dieser mutualistischen Prozesse in diesem Ökosystem. Um den Einfluss von kleinräumiger menschlicher Störung auf die Frugivorengemeinschaft und die zentralen Ökosystemprozesse Samenausbreitung und Regeneration zu erforschen, habe ich 1) die Frugivorengemeinschaft und die Samenausbreitungsrate von Celtis durandii (Ulmaceae) und 2) den Zusammenhang zwischen Baumarten mit fleischigen Früchten, Frugivoren und der Etablierung von Keimlingen dieser Baumarten in unterschiedlich stark gestörten Flächen dreier ostafrikanischer tropischer Regenwälder untersucht. Insgesamt konnte ich 40 frugivore Vogel- und Primatenarten in den drei untersuchten Waldgebieten nachweisen. Auf gering gestörten Flächen wurden mehr Frugivore als auf stark gestörten Flächen aufgenommen. Auch die Beobachtungen an C. durandii ergaben mehr frugivore Besucher in Bäumen auf gering gestörten als auf stark gestörten Flächen. Dies führte zu einer marginal signifikant höheren Samenausbreitungsrate auf den gering gestörten Flächen. Diese Ergebnisse waren auf regionaler Ebene in allen drei untersuchten Wäldern konsistent. Dies zeigt, dass kleinräumige Störung einen umfassenderen negativen Einfluss auf Frugivore und ihre Funktion als Samenausbreiter hat als zuvor angenommen. Bei der Vegetationserfassung nahm ich 131 verschiedene Baumarten mit fleischigen Früchten in den drei Regenwäldern auf. Kleinräumige menschliche Störung erhöhte den Artenreichtum dieser Baumarten marginal signifikant, hatte jedoch keinen direkten Einfluss auf die Frugivorendichte und den Artenreichtum von Keimlingen dieser Baumarten. Der Artenreichtum von Baumarten mit fleischigen Früchten zeigte einen marginal signifikant positiven Einfluss auf die Frugivorendichte, allerdings nicht auf die Keimlinge. Allerdings führte die Dichte der Frugivoren zu signifikant erhöhtem Artenreichtum der Keimlinge. Folglich scheint kleinräumige Störung die Keimlingsetablierung indirekt durch erhöhten Baumartenreichtum und erhöhte Frugivorendichte zu beeinflussen. Die Frugivorendichte hatte einen größeren Einfluss auf die Waldregeneration als kleinräumige Störung und Baumartenreichtum. Demnach scheint kleinräumige menschliche Störung sowohl positive als auch negative Effekte auf Samenausbreitung und Regeneration zu haben. Somit sind weitere Studien notwendig, die den Einfluss von kleinräumiger menschlicher Störung auf Mutualismen tropischer Regenwälder aufklären.

A threshold hypothesis of institutional change: collective action in the Italian Alps during the 13th - 19th centuries.

This dissertation is about collective action issues in common property resources. Its focus is the “threshold hypothesis,” which posits the existence of a threshold in group size that drives the process of institutional change. This hypothesis is tested using a six-century dataset concerning the management of the commons by hundreds of communities in the Italian Alps. The analysis seeks to determine the group size threshold and the institutional changes that occur when groups cross this threshold. There are five main findings. First, the number of individuals in villages remained stable for six centuries, despite the population in the region tripling in the same period. Second, the longitudinal analysis of face-to-face assemblies and community size led to the empirical identification of a threshold size that triggered the transition from informal to more formal regimes to manage common property resources. Third, when groups increased in size, gradual organizational changes took place: large groups split into independent subgroups or structured interactions into multiple layers while maintaining a single formal organization. Fourth, resource heterogeneity seemed to have had no significant impact on various institutional characteristics. Fifth, social heterogeneity showed statistically significant impacts, especially on institutional complexity, consensus, and the relative importance of governance rules versus resource management rules. Overall, the empirical evidence from this research supports the “threshold hypothesis.” These findings shed light on the rationale of institutional change in common property regimes, and clarify the mechanisms of collective action in traditional societies. Further research may generalize these conclusions to other domains of collective action and to present-day applications.

Pulse pressure variation and volume responsiveness during acutely increased pulmonary artery pressure: an experimental study

We found that pulse pressure variation (PPV) did not predict volume responsiveness in patients with increased pulmonary artery pressure. This study tests the hypothesis that PPV does not predict fluid responsiveness during an endotoxin-induced acute increase in pulmonary artery pressure and right ventricular loading.

Prolonged inflammation following critical illness may impair long-term survival: a hypothesis with potential therapeutic implications

Despite successful intensive care a substantial portion of critically ill patients dies after discharge from the intensive care unit or hospital. Observational studies investigating long-term survival of critically ill patients reported that most deaths occur during the first months or year after discharge. Only limited data on the causes of impaired quality of life and post-intensive care unit deaths exist in the current literature. In this manuscript we hypothesize that the acute inflammatory response which characteristically accompanies critical illness is ensued by a prolonged imbalance or activation of the immune system. Such a chronic low-grade inflammatory response to critical illness may be sub-clinical and persist for a variable period of time after discharge from the intensive care unit and hospital. Chronic inflammation is a well-recognized risk factor for long-term morbidity and mortality, particularly from cardiovascular causes, and may thus partly contribute to the impaired quality of life as well as increased morbidity and mortality following intensive care unit and hospital discharge of critically ill patients. Assuming that critical illness is indeed followed by a prolonged inflammatory response, important implications for treatment would arise. An interesting and potentially beneficial therapy could be the administration of immune-modulating drugs during the time after intensive care unit or hospital discharge until chronic inflammation has subsided. Statins are well-investigated and effective drugs to attenuate chronic inflammation and could potentially also improve long-term outcome of critically ill patients after intensive care unit or hospital discharge. Future studies evaluating the course of inflammation during and after critical illness as well as its response to statin therapy are required.

The Effects of Altered Prenatal Melatonin Signaling on Adult Behavior and Hippocampal Gene Expression of the Male Rat: A Circadioneuroendocrine-Axis Hypothesis of Psychopathology

Disturbances in melatonin - the neurohormone that signals environmental darkness as part of the circadian circuit of mammals - have been implicated in various psychopathologies in humans. At present, experimental evidence linking prenatal melatonin signaling to adult physiology, behavior, and gene expression is lacking. We hypothesized that administration of melatonin (5 mg/kg) or the melatonin receptor antagonist luzindole (5 mg/kg) to rats in utero would permanently alter the circadian circuit to produce differential growth, adult behavior, and hippocampal gene expressionin the male rat. Prenatal treatment was found to increase growth in melatonin-treated animals. In addition, subjects exposed to melatonin prenatally displayed increased rearing in the open field test and an increased right turn preference in the elevated plusmaze. Rats administered luzindole prenatally, however, displayed greater freezing and grooming behavior in the open field test and improved learning in the Morris water maze. Analysis of relative adult hippocampal gene expression with RT-PCR revealed increasedexpression of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) with a trend toward increased expression of melatonin 1A (MEL1A) receptors in melatonin-exposed animals whereas overall prenatal treatment had a significant effect on microtubule-associated protein 2(MAP2) expression. Our data support the conclusion that the manipulation of maternal melatonin levels alters brain development and leads to physiological and behavioral abnormalities in adult offspring. We designate the term circadioneuroendocrine (CNE)axis and propose the CNE-axis hypothesis of psychopathology.

Sleep disturbance impairs stroke recovery in the rat

There is a lack of experimental evidence to support the hypothesis that sleep may modulate stroke outcome as suggested by clinical observations. We have previously shown that sleep disturbance (SDis) over 3 days aggravates brain damage in a rat model of focal cerebral ischemia. The aim of this study is to further investigate effects of SDis on long-term stroke recovery and neuroplasticity as assessed by axonal sprouting, neurogenesis, and angiogenesis.

Increased IL-4 and decreased regulatory cytokine production following relocation of Icelandic horses from a high to low endoparasite environment

Insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) is an IgE-mediated dermatitis of horses caused by bites of Culicoides spp. IBH does not occur in Iceland where Culicoides are absent. However, following importation into continental Europe where Culicoides are present, >or=50% of Icelandic horses (1st generation) develop IBH but increased the proportion of IL-4-producing cells after polyclonal or parasite antigens stimulation but not stimulation with Culicoides extract. This paralleled the high levels of IL-10 and TGF-beta1 found in supernatants from PBMC cultures of horses in Iceland. Collectively, horses living in Iceland have a high parasite burden but low IL-4 production. This supports the hypothesis that heavy helminth infections have a suppressive effect on IL-4 production mediated by IL-10 and TGF-beta1.

Increased parasite resistance and recurrent airway obstruction in horses of a high-prevalence family

BACKGROUND: Equine recurrent airway obstruction (RAO) shares many characteristics with human asthma. In humans, an inverse relationship between susceptibility to asthma and resistance to parasites is suspected. HYPOTHESIS/OBJECTIVES: Members of a high-incidence RAO half-sibling family (F) shed fewer strongylid eggs compared with RAO-unaffected pasture mates (PM) and that RAO-affected horses shed fewer eggs than RAO-unaffected half-siblings. ANIMALS: Seventy-three F and 73 unrelated, age matched PM. METHODS: Cases and controls kept under the same management and deworming regime were examined. Each individual was classified as RAO affected or RAO unaffected and fecal samples were collected before and 1-3 weeks and 3 months after deworming. Samples were analyzed by combined sedimentation-flotation and modified McMaster methods and classified into 3 categories of 0 eggs per gram of feces (EpG), 1-100 EpG, and > 100 EpG, respectively. RESULTS: PM compared with RAO-affected F had a 16.7 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0-136.3) times higher risk for shedding > 100 EpG compared with 0 EpG and a 5.3 (95% CI: 1.0-27.4) times higher risk for shedding > 100 EpG compared with 0 EpG. There was no significant effect when RAO-unaffected F were compared with their PM. RAO-unaffected compared with RAO-affected offspring had a 5.8 (95% CI: 0.0-1.0) times higher risk for shedding 1-100 EpG. Age, sex, breed, and sharing pastures with other species had no significant confounding effects. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: RAO is associated with resistance against strongylid parasites in a high-prevalence family.

Increased surfactant protein D fails to improve bacterial clearance and inflammation in serpinB1-/- mice

Previously, we described the protective role of the neutrophil serine protease inhibitor serpinB1 in preventing early mortality of Pseudomonas aeruginosa lung infection by fostering bacterial clearance and limiting inflammatory cytokines and proteolytic damage. Surfactant protein D (SP-D), which maintains the antiinflammatory pulmonary environment and mediates bacterial removal, was degraded in infected serpinB1-deficient mice. Based on the hypothesis that increased SP-D would rescue or mitigate the pathological effects of serpinB1 deletion, we generated two serpinB1(-/-) lines overexpressing lung-specific rat SP-D and inoculated the mice with P. aeruginosa. Contrary to predictions, bacterial counts in the lungs of SP-D(low)serpinB1(-/-) and SP-D(high) serpinB1(-/-) mice were 4 logs higher than wild-type and not different from serpinB1(-/-) mice. SP-D overexpression also failed to mitigate inflammation (TNF-α), lung injury (free protein, albumin), or excess neutrophil death (free myeloperoxidase, elastase). These pathological markers were higher for infected SP-D(high)serpinB1(-/-) mice than for serpinB1(-/-) mice, although the differences were not significant after controlling for multiple comparisons. The failure of transgenic SP-D to rescue antibacterial defense of serpinB1-deficient mice occurred despite 5-fold or 20-fold increased expression levels, largely normal structure, and dose-dependent bacteria-aggregating activity. SP-D of infected wild-type mice was intact in 43-kD monomers by reducing SDS-PAGE. By contrast, proteolytic fragments of 35, 17, and 8 kD were found in infected SP-D(low)serpinB1(-/-), SP-D(high) serpinB1(-/-) mice, and serpinB1(-/-) mice. Thus, although therapies to increase lung concentration of SP-D may have beneficial applications, the findings suggest that therapy with SP-D may not be beneficial for lung inflammation or infection if the underlying clinical condition includes excess proteolysis.

The Permanent Income Hypothesis: A Test on Czech Privatisation

Since the late eighties, economists have been regarding the transition from command to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe with intense interest. In addition to studying the transition per se, they have begun using the region as a testing ground on which to investigate the validity of certain classic economic propositions. In his research, comprising three articles written in English and totalling 40 pages, Mr. Hanousek uses the so-called "Czech national experiment" (voucher privatisation scheme) to test the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). He took as his inspiration Kreinin's recommendation: "Since data concerning the behaviour of windfall income recipients is relatively scanty, and since such data can constitute an important test of the permanent income hypothesis, it is of interest to bring to bear on the hypothesis whatever information is available". Mr. Hanousek argues that, since the transfer of property to Czech citizens from 1992 to 1994 through the voucher scheme was not anticipated, it can be regarded as windfall income. The average size of the windfall was more than three month's salary and over 60 percent of the Czech population received this unexpected income. Furthermore, there are other reasons for conducting such an analysis in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the privatisation process took place quickly. Secondly, both the economy and consumer behaviour have been very stable. Thirdly, out of a total population of 10 million Czech citizens, an astonishing 6 million, that is, virtually every household, participated in the scheme. Thus Czech voucher privatisation provides a sample for testing the PIH almost equivalent to a full population, thus avoiding problems with the distribution of windfalls. Compare this, for instance with the fact that only 4% of the Israeli urban population received personal restitution from Germany, while the number of veterans who received the National Service Life Insurance Dividends amounted to less than 9% of the US population and were concentrated in certain age groups. But to begin with, Mr. Hanousek considers the question of whether the public percieves the transfer from the state to individual as an increase in net wealth. It can be argued that the state is only divesting itself of assets that would otherwise provide a future source of transfers. According to this argument, assigning these assets to individuals creates an offsetting change in the present value of potential future transfers so that individuals are no better off after the transfer. Mr. Hanousek disagrees with this approach. He points out that a change in the ownership of inefficient state-owned enterprises should lead to higher efficiency, which alone increases the value of enterprises and creates a windfall increase in citizens' portfolios. More importantly, the state and individuals had very different preferences during the transition. Despite government propaganda, it is doubtful that citizens of former communist countries viewed government-owned enterprises as being operated in the citizens' best interest. Moreover, it is unlikely that the public fully comprehended the sophisticated links between the state budget, state-owned enterprises, and transfers to individuals. Finally, the transfers were not equal across the population. Mr. Hanousek conducted a survey on 1263 individuals, dividing them into four monthly earnings categories. After determining whether the respondent had participated in the voucher process, he asked those who had how much of what they received from voucher privatisation had been (a) spent on goods and services, (b) invested elsewhere, (c) transferred to newly emerging pension funds, (d) given to a family member, and (e) retained in their original form as an investment. Both the mean and the variance of the windfall rise with income. He obtained similar results with respect to education, where the mean (median) windfall for those with a basic school education was 13,600 Czech Crowns (CZK), a figure that increased to 15,000 CZK for those with a high school education without exams, 19,900 CZK for high school graduates with exams, and 24,600 CZK for university graduates. Mr. Hanousek concludes that it can be argued that higher income (and better educated) groups allocated their vouchers or timed the disposition of their shares better. He turns next to an analysis of how respondents reported using their windfalls. The key result is that only a relatively small number of individuals reported spending on goods. Overall, the results provide strong support for the permanent income hypothesis, the only apparent deviation being the fact that both men and women aged 26 to 35 apparently consume more than they should if the windfall were annuitised. This finding is still fully consistent with the PIH, however, if this group is at a stage in their life-cycle where, without the windfall, they would be borrowing to finance consumption associated with family formation etc. Indeed, the PIH predicts that individuals who would otherwise borrow to finance consumption would consume the windfall up to the level equal to the annuitised fraction of the increase in lifetime income plus the full amount of the previously planned borrowing for consumption. Greater consumption would then be financed, not from investing the windfall, but from avoidance of future repayment obligations for debts that would have been incurred without the windfall.

Impaired 11 beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase contributes to renal sodium avidity in cirrhosis: hypothesis or fact?

Exaggerated renal sodium retention with concomitant potassium loss is a hallmark of cirrhosis and contributes to the accumulation of fluid as ascites, pleural effusion, or edema. This apparent mineralocorticoid effect is only partially explained by increased aldosterone concentrations. I present evidence supporting the hypothesis that cortisol confers mineralocorticoid action in cirrhosis. The underlying molecular pathology for this mineralocorticoid receptor (MR) activation by cortisol is a reduced activity of the 11 beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 2, an enzyme protecting the MR from promiscuous activation by cortisol in healthy mammalians.

Correlation between the area of increased autofluorescence surrounding geographic atrophy and disease progression in patients with AMD

PURPOSE: To test the hypothesis that the extension of areas with increased fundus autofluorescence (FAF) outside atrophic patches correlates with the rate of spread of geographic atrophy (GA) over time in eyes with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: The database of the multicenter longitudinal natural history Fundus Autofluorescence in AMD (FAM) Study was reviewed for patients with GA recruited through the end of August 2003, with follow-up examinations within at least 1 year. Only eyes with sufficient image quality and with diffuse patterns of increased FAF surrounding atrophy were chosen. In standardized digital FAF images (excitation, 488 nm; emission, >500 nm), total size and spread of GA was measured. The convex hull (CH) of increased FAF as the minimum polygon encompassing the entire area of increased FAF surrounding the central atrophic patches was quantified at baseline. Statistical analysis was performed with the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rho). RESULTS: Thirty-nine eyes of 32 patients were included (median age, 75.0 years; interquartile range [IQR], 67.8-78.9); median follow-up, 1.87 years; IQR, 1.43-3.37). At baseline, the median total size of atrophy was 7.04 mm2 (IQR, 4.20-9.88). The median size of the CH was 21.47 mm2 (IQR, 15.19-28.26). The median rate of GA progression was 1.72 mm2 per year (IQR, 1.10-2.83). The area of increased FAF around the atrophy (difference between the CH and the total GA size at baseline) showed a positive correlation with GA enlargement over time (rho=0.60; P=0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: FAF characteristics that are not identified by fundus photography or fluorescein angiography may serve as a prognostic determinant in advanced atrophic AMD. As the FAF signal originates from lipofuscin (LF) in postmitotic RPE cells and since increased FAF indicates excessive LF accumulation, these findings would underscore the pathophysiological role of RPE-LF in AMD pathogenesis.