Shocking policy coefficients

This paper proposes an empirical framework to study the effects of a policy regime change defined as an unpredictable and permanent change in the policy parameters. In particular I show how to make conditional forecast and perform impulse response functions and counterfactual analysis. As an application, the effects of changes in fiscal policy rules in the US are investigated. I find that discretionary fiscal policy has become more countercyclical over the last decades. In absence of such a change, surplus would have been higher, debt lower and output gap more volatile but only until mid 80s. An increase in the degree of counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy has a positive effect on output gap in periods where the level of debt-to-GDP ratio is low and a zero or negative effect when the ratio is high. This explains why a more countercylical stance of the systematic fiscal policy taking place in 2008:II is predicted to be rather ineffective for recovering from the crisis.

The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Optimal taxation without state-contingent debt

To recover a version of Barro's (1979) `random walk'tax smoothing outcome, we modify Lucas and Stokey's (1983) economyto permit only risk--free debt. This imparts near unit root like behaviorto government debt, independently of the government expenditureprocess, a realistic outcome in the spirit of Barro's. We showhow the risk--free--debt--only economy confronts the Ramsey plannerwith additional constraints on equilibrium allocations thattake the form of a sequence of measurability conditions.We solve the Ramsey problem by formulating it in terms of a Lagrangian,and applying a Parameterized Expectations Algorithm tothe associated first--order conditions. The first--order conditions andnumerical impulse response functions partially affirmBarro's random walk outcome. Though the behaviors oftax rates, government surpluses, and government debts differ, allocationsare very close for computed Ramsey policies across incomplete and completemarkets economies.

The influence of the symmetry energy on the giant monopole resonance of neutron-rich nuclei analyzed in Thomas-Fermi theory

We analyze the influence of the density dependence of the symmetry energy on the average excitation energy of the isoscalar giant monopole resonance (GMR) in stable and exotic neutron-rich nuclei by applying the relativistic extended Thomas-Fermi method in scaling and constrained calculations. For the effective nuclear interaction, we employ the relativistic mean field model supplemented by an isoscalar-isovector meson coupling that allows one to modify the density dependence of the symmetry energy without compromising the success of the model for binding energies and charge radii. The semiclassical estimates of the average energy of the GMR are known to be in good agreement with the results obtained in full RPA calculations. The present analysis is performed along the Pb and Zr isotopic chains. In the scaling calculations, the excitation energy is larger when the symmetry energy is softer. The same happens in the constrained calculations for nuclei with small and moderate neutron excess. However, for nuclei of large isospin the constrained excitation energy becomes smaller in models having a soft symmetry energy. This effect is mainly due to the presence of loosely-bound outer neutrons in these isotopes. A sharp increase of the estimated width of the resonance is found in largely neutron-rich isotopes, even for heavy nuclei, which is enhanced when the symmetry energy of the model is soft. The results indicate that at large neutron numbers the structure of the low-energy region of the GMR strength distribution changes considerably with the density dependence of the nuclear symmetry energy, which may be worthy of further characterization in RPA calculations of the response function.

Collective spin excitations of alkali-metal clusters

The response function of alkali-metal clusters, modeled as jellium spheres, to dipole (L=1) and quadrupole (L=2) spin-dependent fields is obtained within the time-dependent local-spin-density approximation of density-functional theory. We predict the existence of low-energy spin modes of surface type, which are identified from the strength function. Their collectivity and evolution with size are discussed.

Closure of the Monte Carlo dynamical equation in the spherical Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model

We study the analytical solution of the Monte Carlo dynamics in the spherical Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model using the technique of the generating function. Explicit solutions for one-time observables (like the energy) and two-time observables (like the correlation and response function) are obtained. We show that the crucial quantity which governs the dynamics is the acceptance rate. At zero temperature, an adiabatic approximation reveals that the relaxational behavior of the model corresponds to that of a single harmonic oscillator with an effective renormalized mass.

Perturbation theory for classical thermodynamic Green's functions

A systematic time-dependent perturbation scheme for classical canonical systems is developed based on a Wick's theorem for thermal averages of time-ordered products. The occurrence of the derivatives with respect to the canonical variables noted by Martin, Siggia, and Rose implies that two types of Green's functions have to be considered, the propagator and the response function. The diagrams resulting from Wick's theorem are "double graphs" analogous to those introduced by Dyson and also by Kawasaki, in which the response-function lines form a "tree structure" completed by propagator lines. The implication of a fluctuation-dissipation theorem on the self-energies is analyzed and compared with recent results by Deker and Haake.

Improving node number simulation in soybean

The objective of this study was to improve the simulation of node number in soybean cultivars with determinate stem habits. A nonlinear model considering two approaches to input daily air temperature data (daily mean temperature and daily minimum/maximum air temperatures) was used. The node number on the main stem data of ten soybean cultivars was collected in a three-year field experiment (from 2004/2005 to 2006/2007) at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Node number was simulated using the Soydev model, which has a nonlinear temperature response function [f(T)]. The f(T) was calculated using two methods: using daily mean air temperature calculated as the arithmetic average among daily minimum and maximum air temperatures (Soydev tmean); and calculating an f(T) using minimum air temperature and other using maximum air temperature and then averaging the two f(T)s (Soydev tmm). Root mean square error (RMSE) and deviations (simulated minus observed) were used as statistics to evaluate the performance of the two versions of Soydev. Simulations of node number in soybean were better with the Soydev tmm version, with a 0.5 to 1.4 node RMSE. Node number can be simulated for several soybean cultivars using only one set of model coefficients, with a 0.8 to 2.4 node RMSE.

Enhanced MDIR receiver for space-time dispersive channels

A particular property of the matched desiredimpulse response receiver is introduced in this paper, namely,the fact that full exploitation of the diversity is obtained withmultiple beamformers when the channel is spatially and timelydispersive. This particularity makes the receiver specially suitablefor mobile and underwater communications. The new structureprovides better performance than conventional and weightedVRAKE receivers, and a diversity gain with no needs of additionalradio frequency equipment. The baseband hardware neededfor this new receiver may be obtained through reconfigurabilityof the RAKE architectures available at the base station. Theproposed receiver is tested through simulations assuming UTRAfrequency-division-duplexing mode.

Joint array combining and MLSE for single-user receivers in multipath Gaussian multiuser channels

The well-known structure of an array combiner along with a maximum likelihood sequence estimator (MLSE) receiveris the basis for the derivation of a space-time processor presentinggood properties in terms of co-channel and intersymbol interferencerejection. The use of spatial diversity at the receiver front-endtogether with a scalar MLSE implies a joint design of the spatialcombiner and the impulse response for the sequence detector. Thisis faced using the MMSE criterion under the constraint that thedesired user signal power is not cancelled, yielding an impulse responsefor the sequence detector that is matched to the channel andcombiner response. The procedure maximizes the signal-to-noiseratio at the input of the detector and exhibits excellent performancein realistic multipath channels.

System identification using a linear combination of cumulant slices

In this paper we develop a new linear approach to identify the parameters of a moving average (MA) model from the statistics of the output. First, we show that, under some constraints, the impulse response of the system can be expressed as a linear combination of cumulant slices. Then, thisresult is used to obtain a new well-conditioned linear methodto estimate the MA parameters of a non-Gaussian process. Theproposed method presents several important differences withexisting linear approaches. The linear combination of slices usedto compute the MA parameters can be constructed from dif-ferent sets of cumulants of different orders, providing a generalframework where all the statistics can be combined. Further-more, it is not necessary to use second-order statistics (the autocorrelation slice), and therefore the proposed algorithm stillprovides consistent estimates in the presence of colored Gaussian noise. Another advantage of the method is that while mostlinear methods developed so far give totally erroneous estimates if the order is overestimated, the proposed approach doesnot require a previous estimation of the filter order. The simulation results confirm the good numerical conditioning of thealgorithm and the improvement in performance with respect to existing methods.

Pupil responses derived from outer and inner retinal photoreception are normal in patients with hereditary optic neuropathy.

We compared the pupil responses originating from outer versus inner retinal photoreception between patients with isolated hereditary optic neuropathy (HON, n = 8) and healthy controls (n = 8). Three different testing protocols were used. For the first two protocols, a response function of the maximal pupil contraction versus stimulus light intensity was generated and the intensity at which half of the maximal pupil contraction, the half-max intensity, was determined. For the third protocol, the pupil size after light offset, the re-dilation rate and re-dilation amplitude were calculated to assess the post-light stimulus response. Patients with HON had bilateral, symmetric optic atrophy and significant reduction of visual acuity and visual field compared to controls. There were no significant mean differences in the response curve and pupil response parameters that reflect mainly rod, cone or melanopsin activity between patients and controls. In patients, there was a significant correlation between the half-max intensity of the red light sequence and visual field loss. In conclusion, pupil responses derived from outer or inner retinal photoreception in HON patients having mild-to moderate visual dysfunction are not quantitatively different from age-matched controls. However, an association between the degree of visual field loss and the half-max intensity of the cone response suggests that more advanced stages of disease may lead to impaired pupil light reflexes.

Maastoajoneuvon korin teräsrakenteiden värähtelyominaisuuksien FEM-analysointimenetelmien kehittäminen

Tämä diplomityö on tehty Patria Vehicles Oy:n toimeksiannosta. Patria Vehicles Oy:n tuotantoon kuuluvat vaativiin maasto-olosuhteisiin soveltuvat sotilasajoneuvot. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli kehittää menetelmäohjeet, kuinka FEM-analyysillä voidaan tutkia tuotekehitysvaiheessa ajoneuvon korin teräsrakenteiden värähtelyominaisuuksia ja dynaamista käyttäytymistä. Tutkimuksessa on käytetty Ideas-FEM-ohjelmistoa. Dynaamisten ongelmien ratkaisemiseksi on ymmärrettävä rakenteiden dynaamista käyttäytymistä. Rakenteiden käyttäytymistä ja muodonmuutoksia on tutkittava kriittisillä ominaistaajuuksilla. Tutkimuksessa on selvitetty, kuinka ajoneuvon elementtimallilla voidaan tehdä ominaisvärähtely- ja vastelaskentaa. Ominaisvärähtelylaskennalla selvitetään rakenteen ominaismuodot ja -taajuudet. Vastelaskennalla tutkitaan erilaisten herätteiden vaikutuksia ajoneuvon dynaamiseen käyttäytymiseen ja määritetään herätteistä rakenteeseen aiheutuvat vasteet ja herätteiden siirtyvyys rakenteessa. Lisäksi tutkitaan herätteiden aiheuttamia todellisia jännityksiä ja siirtymiä, jotta saadaan selville rakenteen todelliset rasitukset. Analyyseillä voidaan tutkia, kuinka ajoneuvon korirakennetta on jäykistettävä ja vaimennettava, jotta siinä ei esiinny haitallista melua ja värähtelyä.

Broadband excitation in the system identification of active magnetic bearing rotor systems

One of the targets of the climate and energy package of the European Union is to increase the energy efficiency in order to achieve a 20 percent reduction in primary energy use compared with the projected level by 2020. The energy efficiency can be improved for example by increasing the rotational speed of large electrical drives, because this enables the elimination of gearboxes leading to a compact design with lower losses. The rotational speeds of traditional bearings, such as roller bearings, are limited by mechanical friction. Active magnetic bearings (AMBs), on the other hand, allow very high rotational speeds. Consequently, their use in large medium- and high-speed machines has rapidly increased. An active magnetic bearing rotor system is an inherently unstable, nonlinear multiple-input, multiple-output system. Model-based controller design of AMBs requires an accurate system model. Finite element modeling (FEM) together with the experimental modal analysis provides a very accurate model for the rotor, and a linearized model of the magneticactuators has proven to work well in normal conditions. However, the overall system may suffer from unmodeled dynamics, such as dynamics of foundation or shrink fits. This dynamics can be modeled by system identification. System identification can also be used for on-line diagnostics. In this study, broadband excitation signals are adopted to the identification of an active magnetic bearing rotor system. The broadband excitation enables faster frequency response function measurements when compared with the widely used stepped sine and swept sine excitations. Different broadband excitations are reviewed, and the random phase multisine excitation is chosen for further study. The measurement times using the multisine excitation and the stepped sine excitation are compared. An excitation signal design with an analysis of the harmonics produced by the nonlinear system is presented. The suitability of different frequency response function estimators for an AMB rotor system are also compared. Additionally, analytical modeling of an AMB rotor system, obtaining a parametric model from the nonparametric frequency response functions, and model updating are discussed in brief, as they are key elements in the modeling for a control design. Theoretical methods are tested with a laboratory test rig. The results conclude that an appropriately designed random phase multisine excitation is suitable for the identification of AMB rotor systems.