840 resultados para Impact evaluation
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A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Reactive-optimisation procedures are responsible for the minimisation of online power losses in interconnected systems. These procedures are performed separately at each control centre and involve external network representations. If total losses can be minimised by the implementation of calculated local control actions, the entire system benefits economically, but such control actions generally result in a certain degree of inaccuracy, owing to errors in the modelling of the external system. Since these errors are inevitable, they must at least be maintained within tolerable limits by external-modelling approaches. Care must be taken to avoid unrealistic loss minimisation, as the local-control actions adopted can lead the system to points of operation which will be less economical for the interconnected system as a whole. The evaluation of the economic impact of the external modelling during reactive-optimisation procedures in interconnected systems, in terms of both the amount of losses and constraint violations, becomes important in this context. In the paper, an analytical approach is proposed for such an evaluation. Case studies using data from the Brazilian South-Southeast system (810 buses) have been carried out to compare two different external-modelling approaches, both derived from the equivalent-optimal-power-flow (EOPF) model. Results obtained show that, depending on the external-model representation adopted, the loss representation can be flawed. Results also suggest some modelling features that should be adopted in the EOPF model to enhance the economy of the overall system.
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This paper proposes a methodology to consider the effects of the integration of DG on planning. Since DG has potential to defer investments in networks, the impact of DG on grid capacity is evaluated. A multi-objective optimization tool based on the meta-heuristic MEPSO is used, supporting an alternative approach to exploiting the Pareto front features. Tests were performed in distinct conditions with two well-known distribution networks: IEEE-34 and IEEE-123. The results combined minimization and maximization in order to produce different Pareto fronts and determine the extent of the impact caused by DG. The analysis provides useful information, such as the identification of futures that should be considered in planning. A future means a set of realizations of all uncertainties. MEPSO also presented a satisfactory performance in obtaining the Pareto fronts. © 2011 IEEE.
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The present work provides an ex-post assessment of the UK 5-a-day information campaign where the positive effects of information on consumption levels are disentangled from the potentially conflicting price dynamics. A model-based estimate of the counterfactual (no-intervention) scenario is computed using data from the Expenditure and Food Survey between 2002 and 2006. For this purpose fruit and vegetable demand is modelled employing Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) specification with demographic effects and controlling for potential endogeneity of prices and total food expenditure.
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The "sustainability" concept relates to the prolonging of human economic systems with as little detrimental impact on ecological systems as possible. Construction that exhibits good environmental stewardship and practices that conserve resources in a manner that allow growth and development to be sustained for the long-term without degrading the environment are indispensable in a developed society. Past, current and future advancements in asphalt as an environmentally sustainable paving material are especially important because the quantities of asphalt used annually in Europe as well as in the U.S. are large. The asphalt industry is still developing technological improvements that will reduce the environmental impact without affecting the final mechanical performance. Warm mix asphalt (WMA) is a type of asphalt mix requiring lower production temperatures compared to hot mix asphalt (HMA), while aiming to maintain the desired post construction properties of traditional HMA. Lowering the production temperature reduce the fuel usage and the production of emissions therefore and that improve conditions for workers and supports the sustainable development. Even the crumb-rubber modifier (CRM), with shredded automobile tires and used in the United States since the mid 1980s, has proven to be an environmentally friendly alternative to conventional asphalt pavement. Furthermore, the use of waste tires is not only relevant in an environmental aspect but also for the engineering properties of asphalt [Pennisi E., 1992]. This research project is aimed to demonstrate the dual value of these Asphalt Mixes in regards to the environmental and mechanical performance and to suggest a low environmental impact design procedure. In fact, the use of eco-friendly materials is the first phase towards an eco-compatible design but it cannot be the only step. The eco-compatible approach should be extended also to the design method and material characterization because only with these phases is it possible to exploit the maximum potential properties of the used materials. Appropriate asphalt concrete characterization is essential and vital for realistic performance prediction of asphalt concrete pavements. Volumetric (Mix design) and mechanical (Permanent deformation and Fatigue performance) properties are important factors to consider. Moreover, an advanced and efficient design method is necessary in order to correctly use the material. A design method such as a Mechanistic-Empirical approach, consisting of a structural model capable of predicting the state of stresses and strains within the pavement structure under the different traffic and environmental conditions, was the application of choice. In particular this study focus on the CalME and its Incremental-Recursive (I-R) procedure, based on damage models for fatigue and permanent shear strain related to the surface cracking and to the rutting respectively. It works in increments of time and, using the output from one increment, recursively, as input to the next increment, predicts the pavement conditions in terms of layer moduli, fatigue cracking, rutting and roughness. This software procedure was adopted in order to verify the mechanical properties of the study mixes and the reciprocal relationship between surface layer and pavement structure in terms of fatigue and permanent deformation with defined traffic and environmental conditions. The asphalt mixes studied were used in a pavement structure as surface layer of 60 mm thickness. The performance of the pavement was compared to the performance of the same pavement structure where different kinds of asphalt concrete were used as surface layer. In comparison to a conventional asphalt concrete, three eco-friendly materials, two warm mix asphalt and a rubberized asphalt concrete, were analyzed. The First Two Chapters summarize the necessary steps aimed to satisfy the sustainable pavement design procedure. In Chapter I the problem of asphalt pavement eco-compatible design was introduced. The low environmental impact materials such as the Warm Mix Asphalt and the Rubberized Asphalt Concrete were described in detail. In addition the value of a rational asphalt pavement design method was discussed. Chapter II underlines the importance of a deep laboratory characterization based on appropriate materials selection and performance evaluation. In Chapter III, CalME is introduced trough a specific explanation of the different equipped design approaches and specifically explaining the I-R procedure. In Chapter IV, the experimental program is presented with a explanation of test laboratory devices adopted. The Fatigue and Rutting performances of the study mixes are shown respectively in Chapter V and VI. Through these laboratory test data the CalME I-R models parameters for Master Curve, fatigue damage and permanent shear strain were evaluated. Lastly, in Chapter VII, the results of the asphalt pavement structures simulations with different surface layers were reported. For each pavement structure, the total surface cracking, the total rutting, the fatigue damage and the rutting depth in each bound layer were analyzed.