HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Hydro(radio)chemical relationships in the giant Guarani aquifer, Brazil

This investigation was carried out within the Parana sedimentary basin and involved the sampling of 78 pumped tubular wells for evaluating the hydrochemistry and radioactivity due to the nuclides (238)U, (234)U, (222)Ra, (226)Ra, and (228)Ra in the Brazilian part of Guarani aquifer. Several significant correlations were found involving the geostatic pressure, for instance, specific flow rate, CO(3)(2-), SO(4)(2-) temperature, dissolved O(2), free CO(2), pH, redox potential Eh, conductivity, Na, HCO(3)-, CO(3)(2-) , SI(calcite), Cl(-), F(-), SO(4)(2-), and B. Carbonates precipitation was evidenced by inverse correlation between CO(3)(2-) and Ca, Mg, Sr, and Ba, whereas Na exhibited an opposite trend, dissolving rather than precipitating with increasing CO(3)(2-) concentration. An inverse correlation between 3 and K was found, possibly related to the increasing tendency of K to recombine with the thickness of the clayey layers. HCO(3)-played an important role on Na, Ca, Mg, and Sr dissolution. The dissolved U content and (234)U/(238)U activity ratio data were plotted on a two-dimensional diagram that was successfully utilized on identifying an unreported zone of U accumulation, though not necessarily of economic size and grade. The variability in chemical and radionuclides data indicated an important influence of the underlying Paleozoic sediments in the composition of waters from Guarani aquifer. The available data allowed estimate the groundwater residence time by two U-isotopes disequilibrium methods. Values of 45-61 ka were initially calculated, depending on the adopted porosity (15-20%), but a longer residence time (- 640 ka) was also estimated, which is more compatible with the hydraulic conductivity data in Guarani aquifer and groundwater flow velocity occurring at Milk River aquifer, Alberta, Canada. Such time range agrees with previously reported (14)C ages exceeding 30 ka BP at the more central parts of the Parana sedimentary basin. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of rotor response analysis to fault detection in hydro powerplants.

In this article some considerations obtained during the utilization of rotor response analysis techniques in hydraulic powerplants are discussed. An applied research work was carried out in two hydraulic turbines analysing the rotor response both theoretically and experimentally. A developed mathematical model was used to simulate the rotordynamic behaviour of Francis and Kaplan turbines. The main dynamical effects that appear during the operation of the machines are discussed too. A series of measurements were carried out in the turbines using impact hammers to determine the modal behaviour of the units. The tests were carried out with the machine still and in operation. Some results and the comparison with the theory is presented in this article. The improved theoretical model was used for a sensitivity analysis of the different bearings to the main excitations that fake place during the machine operation. From this analysis, the best measuring points for condition monitoring were determined.

Influence of Sources and Meteorology on Surface Concentrations of Gases and Aerosols in a Coastal Industrial Complex

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A nonlinear model for the long-term hydro-thermal generation scheduling problem over multiple areas with transmission constraints

This paper presents a nonlinear model with individual representation of plants for the centralized long-term hydrothermal scheduling problem over multiple areas. In addition to common aspects of long-term scheduling, this model takes transmission constraints into account. The ability to optimize hydropower exchange among multiple areas is important because it enables further minimization of complementary thermal generation costs. Also, by considering transmission constraints for long-term scheduling, a more precise coupling with shorter horizon schedules can be expected. This is an important characteristic from both operational and economic viewpoints. The proposed model is solved by a sequential quadratic programming approach in the form of a prototype system for different case studies. An analysis of the benefits provided by the model is also presented. ©2009 IEEE.

Economical use of hydro power, steam power and system interconnections

Includes bibliography

Combining hydro and thermal capacity results in maximum economic benefits

Includes bibliography

The co-ordination of hydro and thermal production: the situation in Italy and the experiences of the Edison Group

Includes bibliography

Requirements and methodology for the massive implementation of small hydro power stations in Latin America

Spanish version available

Estimation of deposit and spray distribution in hydro sensible paper and morning glory plant

Herbicides application success depends, besides product correct choice, the observation of environmental conditions and application quality. The work aimed to quantify the effects of surfactant addition in spraying solution, in natural and artificial targets, associated to different nozzle boom angles in relation to application offset, by using distinct evaluation methods. Two experiments were conducted at NuPAM-FCA/UNESP, Botucatu County, São Paulo State, constituted by ten treatments, in factorial scheme 2 × 5, corresponding to two spraying solutions conditions (absence or presence of Aterbane BRTM (0.25% v/v) adjuvant) and five angles of spray nozzle in relation to offset application (-30°, -15°, 90°, +15° and +30°). In Ipomea grandifolia leaves, the distribution and drops deposition of a tracer solution were evaluated by using scores visual and spectrophotometer process. In hydro sensible papers, volumetric medium diameter (VMD), density (cm2 ) and drops medium diameter, covered area (%) and application fees (L ha-1) were evaluated through e-SprinkleTM software. Aterbane BRTM (0.25% v/v) presence or absence, associated or no, to spray nozzles offset did not provide significant differences in I. grandifolia spray deposition. The use of artificial targets presented applicative technical limitations in relation to the use of natural ones as study matrix. Deposit and distribution variables esteem distinct behaviours, independent of target nature.

Hydro-physical characterization of soils under tropical semi-deciduous forest

The study of the hydro-physical behavior in soils using toposequences is of great importance for better understanding the soil, water and vegetation relationships. This study aims to assess the hydro-physical and morphological characterization of soil from a toposequence in Galia, state of São Paulo, Brazil). The plot covers an area of 10.24 ha (320 × 320 m), located in a semi-deciduous seasonal forest. Based on ultra-detailed soil and topographic maps of the area, a representative transect from the soil in the plot was chosen. Five profiles were opened for the morphological description of the soil horizons, and hydro-physical and micromorphological analyses were performed to characterize the soil. Arenic Haplustult, Arenic Haplustalf and Aquertic Haplustalf were the soil types observed in the plot. The superficial horizons had lower density and greater hydraulic conductivity, porosity and water retention in lower tensions than the deeper horizons. In the sub-superficial horizons, greater water retention at higher tensions and lower hydraulic conductivity were observed, due to structure type and greater clay content. The differences observed in the water retention curves between the sandy E and the clay B horizons were mainly due to the size distribution, shape and type of soil pores.