A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Can social resilience inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable regions?

This book represents a landmark effort to probe and analyze the theory and empirics of designing water disaster management policies. It consists of seven chapters that examine, in-depth and comprehensively, issues that are central to crafting effective policies for water disaster management. The authors use historical surveys, institutional analysis, econometric investigations, empirical case studies, and conceptual-theoretical discussions to clarify and illuminate the complex policy process. The specific topics studied in this book include a review and analysis of key policy areas and research priority areas associated with water disaster management, community participation in disaster risk reduction, the economics and politics of ‘green’ flood control, probabilistic flood forecasting for flood risk management, polycentric governance and flood risk management, drought management with the aid of dynamic inter-generational preferences, and how social resilience can inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable areas. A unique feature of this book is its analysis of the causes and consequences of water disasters and efforts to address them successfully through policy-rich, cross-disciplinary and transnational papers. This book is designed to help enrich the sparse discourse on water disaster management policies and galvanize water professionals to craft creative solutions to tackle water disasters efficiently, equitably, and sustainably. This book should also be of considerable use to disaster management professionals, in general, and natural resource policy analysts.

Someone else's boom but always our bust: Australia as a derivative economy, implications for regions

This paper examines the socio-economic impact of mineral and agricultural resource extraction on local communities and explores policy options for addressing them. An emphasis on the marketisation of services together with tight fiscal control has reinforced decline in many country communities in Australia and elsewhere. However, the introduction by the European Union of Regional Policy which emphasises ‘smart specialisation’ can enhance greatly the capacity of local people to generate decent livelihoods. For this to have real effect, the innovative state has to enable partnerships between communities, researchers and industry. For countries like Australia, this would be a substantive policy shift.

Cerebral regions associated with verbal response initiation, suppression and strategy use

Cerebral activation associated with performance on a novel task involving two conditions was investigated with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). In the response initiation condition, subjects nominated the general superordinate category to which each of a series of exemplars (concrete nouns) belonged. In the response suppression condition, subjects were required to nominate a general superordinate category to which each exemplar did not belong, with the instruction that they were not to nominate the same category response twice in a row. Both conditions produced distinct patterns of activation relative to an articulation control condition employing identical stimuli. When initiation and suppression conditions were directly compared, response suppression produced activation in the right frontal pole, orbital frontal cortex and anterior cingulate, left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and posterior cingulate, and bilaterally in the precuneus, visual association cortex and cerebellum. Response latencies were significantly longer in the suppression condition. Two broadly-defined strategies associated with the correct production of words during the suppression condition were a self-ordered selection from among the superordinate categories identified during the first section of the task and the generation of novel category responses. The neuroanatomical correlates of response initiation, suppression and strategy use are discussed, as are the respective roles of response suppression and strategy generation.

Genetic architecture of subcortical brain regions: Common and region-specific genetic contributions

Understanding the aetiology of patterns of variation within and covariation across brain regions is key to advancing our understanding of the functional, anatomical and developmental networks of the brain. Here we applied multivariate twin modelling and principal component analysis (PCA) to investigate the genetic architecture of the size of seven subcortical regions (caudate nucleus, thalamus, putamen, pallidum, hippocampus, amygdala and nucleus accumbens) in a genetically informative sample of adolescents and young adults (N=1038; mean age=21.6±3.2years; including 148 monozygotic and 202 dizygotic twin pairs) from the Queensland Twin IMaging (QTIM) study. Our multivariate twin modelling identified a common genetic factor that accounts for all the heritability of intracranial volume (0.88) and a substantial proportion of the heritability of all subcortical structures, particularly those of the thalamus (0.71 out of 0.88), pallidum (0.52 out of 0.75) and putamen (0.43 out of 0.89). In addition, we also found substantial region-specific genetic contributions to the heritability of the hippocampus (0.39 out of 0.79), caudate nucleus (0.46 out of 0.78), amygdala (0.25 out of 0.45) and nucleus accumbens (0.28 out of 0.52). This provides further insight into the extent and organization of subcortical genetic architecture, which includes developmental and general growth pathways, as well as the functional specialization and maturation trajectories that influence each subcortical region. This multivariate twin study identifies a common genetic factor that accounts for all the heritability of intracranial volume (0.88) and a substantial proportion of the heritability of all subcortical structures, particularly those of the thalamus (0.71 out of 0.88), pallidum (0.52 out of 0.75) and putamen (0.43 out of 0.89). In parallel, it also describes substantial region-specific genetic contributions to the heritability of the hippocampus (0.39 out of 0.79), caudate nucleus (0.46 out of 0.78), amygdala (0.25 out of 0.45) and nucleus accumbens (0.28 out of 0.52).

Rainfall variability drives interannual variation in N2O emissions from a humid, subtropical pasture

Variations in interannual rainfall totals can lead to large uncertainties in annual N2O emission budget estimates from short term field studies. The interannual variation in nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from a subtropical pasture in Queensland, Australia, was examined using continuous measurements of automated chambers over 2 consecutive years. Nitrous oxide emissions were highest during the summer months and were highly episodic, related more to the size and distribution of rain events than soil water content. Over 48% of the total N2O emitted was lost in just 16% of measurement days. Interannual variation in annual N2O estimates was high, with cumulative emissions increasing with decreasing rainfall. Cumulative emissions averaged 1826.7 ± 199.9 g N2O-N ha−1 yr−1 over the two year period, though emissions from 2008 (2148 ± 273 g N2O-N ha−1 yr−1) were 42% higher than 2007 (1504 ± 126 g N2O-N ha−1 yr−1). This increase in annual emissions coincided with almost half of the summer precipitation from 2007 to 2008. Emissions dynamics were chiefly driven by the distribution and size of rain events which varied on a seasonal and annual basis. Sampling frequency effects on cumulative N2O flux estimation were assessed using a jackknife technique to inform future manual sampling campaigns. Test subsets of the daily measured data were generated for the pasture and two adjacent land-uses (rainforest and lychee orchard) by selecting measured flux values at regular time intervals ranging from 1 to 30 days. Errors associated with weekly sampling were up to 34% of the sub-daily mean and were highly biased towards overestimation if strategically sampled following rain events. Sampling time of day also played a critical role. Morning sampling best represented the 24 hour mean in the pasture, whereas sampling at noon proved the most accurate in the shaded rainforest and lychee orchard.

Total transcriptome, proteome, and allergome of Johnson grass pollen, which is important for allergic rhinitis in subtropical regions

Background Genomic data are lacking for many allergen sources. To circumvent this limitation, we implemented a strategy to reveal the repertoire of pollen allergens of a grass with clinical importance in subtropical regions, where an increasing proportion of the world's population resides. Objective We sought to identify and immunologically characterize the allergenic components of the Panicoideae Johnson grass pollen (JGP; Sorghum halepense). Methods The total pollen transcriptome, proteome, and allergome of JGP were documented. Serum IgE reactivities with pollen and purified allergens were assessed in 64 patients with grass pollen allergy from a subtropical region. Results Purified Sor h 1 and Sor h 13 were identified as clinically important allergen components of JGP with serum IgE reactivity in 49 (76%) and 28 (43.8%), respectively, of patients with grass pollen allergy. Within whole JGP, multiple cDNA transcripts and peptide spectra belonging to grass pollen allergen families 1, 2, 4, 7, 11, 12, 13, and 25 were identified. Pollen allergens restricted to subtropical grasses (groups 22-24) were also present within the JGP transcriptome and proteome. Mass spectrometry confirmed the IgE-reactive components of JGP included isoforms of Sor h 1, Sor h 2, Sor h 13, and Sor h 23. Conclusion Our integrated molecular approach revealed qualitative differences between the allergenic components of JGP and temperate grass pollens. Knowledge of these newly identified allergens has the potential to improve specific diagnosis and allergen immunotherapy treatment for patients with grass pollen allergy in subtropical regions and reduce the burden of allergic respiratory disease globally.

Does size matter? Knowledge-based development of second-order city-regions in Finland

Achieving knowledge-based urban development (KBUD) profoundly depends on not only encouraging the development of economic activities, but also strengthening the societal, environmental and governance bases of city-regions. In recent years, a number of global city-regions have been investigated from the angle of this multidimensional perspective, which has provided a new comprehension in the development processes of primate city-regions. However, there is a knowledge gap in understanding how KBUD works in the second-order city-region (SOCR) context. This warrants more attention as SOCRs potentially help secure balanced development and territorial cohesion. This paper aims to empirically investigate KBUD performances of SOCRs in order to generate new insights. An assessment framework is utilised in the Finnish context, where the findings provide a nationally benchmarked snapshot of the degree of achievements of SOCRs based on numerous KBUD performance areas. The results shed light on the unique Finnish urban and regional development process, and provide lessons for other SOCRs.

Spatially explicit perceptions of ecosystem services and land cover change in forested regions of Borneo

Spatially explicit information on local perceptions of ecosystem services is needed to inform land use planning within rapidly changing landscapes. In this paper we spatially modelled local people's use and perceptions of benefits from forest ecosystem services in Borneo, from interviews of 1837 people in 185 villages. Questions related to provisioning, cultural/spiritual, regulating and supporting ecosystem services derived from forest, and attitudes towards forest conversion. We used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to combine interview data with social and environmental predictors to understand spatial variation of perceptions across Borneo. Our results show that people use a variety of products from intact and highly degraded forests. Perceptions of benefits from forests were strongest: in human-altered forest landscapes for cultural and spiritual benefits; in human-altered and intact forests landscapes for health benefits; intact forest for direct health benefits, such as medicinal plants; and in regions with little forest and extensive plantations, for environmental benefits, such as climatic impacts from deforestation. Forest clearing for small scale agriculture was predicted to be widely supported yet less so for large-scale agriculture. Understanding perceptions of rural communities in dynamic, multi-use landscapes is important where people are often directly affected by the decline in ecosystem services.

Improving SEA procedures within Italian regions: Towards a more effective evaluation of urban sustainability

Sustainable urban development, a major issue at global scale, will become more relevant according to population growth predictions in developed and developing countries. Societal and international recognition of sustainability concerns led to the development of specific tools and procedures, known as sustainability assessments/appraisals (SA). Their effectiveness however, considering that global quality life indicators have worsened since their introduction, has promoted a re-thinking of SA instruments. More precisely, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), – a tool introduced in the European context to evaluate policies, plans, and programmes (PPPs), – is being reconsidered because of several features that seem to limit its effectiveness. Over time, SEA has evolved in response to external and internal factors dealing with technical, procedural, planning and governance systems thus involving a shift of paradigm from EIA-based SEAs (first generation protocols) towards more integrated approaches (second generation ones). Changes affecting SEA are formalised through legislation in each Member State, to guide institutions at regional and local level. Defining SEA effectiveness is quite difficult. Its’ capacity-building process appears quite far from its conclusion, even if any definitive version can be conceptualized. In this paper, we consider some European nations with different planning systems and SA traditions. After the identification of some analytical criteria, a multi-dimensional cluster analysis is developed on some case studies, to outline current weaknesses.

Improving SEA prodedures within Italian regions: Towards a more effective evaluation of urban sustainability

Sustainable urban development, a major issue at global scale, will become more relevant according to population growth predictions in developed and developing countries. Societal and international recognition of sustainability concerns led to the development of specific tools and procedures, known as sustainability assessments/appraisals (SA). Their effectiveness however, considering that global quality life indicators have worsened since their introduction, has promoted a re-thinking of SA instruments. More precisely, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), – a tool introduced in the European context to evaluate policies, plans, and programmes (PPPs), – is being reconsidered because of several features that seem to limit its effectiveness. Over time, SEA has evolved in response to external and internal factors dealing with technical, procedural, planning and governance systems thus involving a shift of paradigm from EIA-based SEAs (first generation protocols) towards more integrated approaches (second generation ones). Changes affecting SEA are formalised through legislation in each Member State, to guide institutions at regional and local level. Defining SEA effectiveness is quite difficult. Its’ capacity-building process appears quite far from its conclusion, even if any definitive version can be conceptualized. In this paper, we consider some European nations with different planning systems and SA traditions. After the identification of some analytical criteria, a multi-dimensional cluster analysis is developed on some case studies, to outline current weaknesses.

Identification of putative regulatory motifs in the upstream regions of co-expressed functional groups of genes in Plasmodium falciparum

Background: Regulation of gene expression in Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) remains poorly understood. While over half the genes are estimated to be regulated at the transcriptional level, few regulatory motifs and transcription regulators have been found. Results: The study seeks to identify putative regulatory motifs in the upstream regions of 13 functional groups of genes expressed in the intraerythrocytic developmental cycle of Pf. Three motif-discovery programs were used for the purpose, and motifs were searched for only on the gene coding strand. Four motifs – the 'G-rich', the 'C-rich', the 'TGTG' and the 'CACA' motifs – were identified, and zero to all four of these occur in the 13 sets of upstream regions. The 'CACA motif' was absent in functional groups expressed during the ring to early trophozoite transition. For functional groups expressed in each transition, the motifs tended to be similar. Upstream motifs in some functional groups showed 'positional conservation' by occurring at similar positions relative to the translational start site (TLS); this increases their significance as regulatory motifs. In the ribonucleotide synthesis, mitochondrial, proteasome and organellar translation machinery genes, G-rich, C-rich, CACA and TGTG motifs, respectively, occur with striking positional conservation. In the organellar translation machinery group, G-rich motifs occur close to the TLS. The same motifs were sometimes identified for multiple functional groups; differences in location and abundance of the motifs appear to ensure different modes of action. Conclusion: The identification of positionally conserved over-represented upstream motifs throws light on putative regulatory elements for transcription in Pf.

Ocean atmosphere coupling over monsoon regions

In monsoon regions, the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is manifested as a seasonal reversal of winds. Most of the summer monsoon rainfall over India occurs owing to synoptic and large-scale convection associated with the continental ITCZ (Fig. 1). We have investigated the interaction between these large-scale convective systems and the ocean over which they are generated1â3, concentrating on the relationship between organized convection over the Indian Ocean and sea surface temperature (SST). We report here that on a monthly basis the degree of cloudiness correlates well with SST for the relatively colder oceans, but when SST is maintained above 28 °C it ceases to be an important factor in determining the variability of cloudiness. Over the major regions of convection east of 70°E, which are warm year after year, the observed cloudiness cannot be correlated with variations in SST.

Growth and species interactions of Eucalyptus pellita in a mixed and monoculture plantation in the humid tropics of north Queensland

This study investigated whether mixed-species designs can increase the growth of a tropical eucalypt when compared to monocultures. Monocultures of Eucalyptus pellita (E) and Acacia peregrina (A) and mixtures in various proportions (75E:25A, 50E:50A, 25E:75A) were planted in a replacement series design on the Atherton Tablelands of north Queensland, Australia. High mortality in the establishment phase due to repeated damage by tropical cyclones altered the trial design. Effects of experimental designs on tree growth were estimated using a linear mixed-effects model with restricted maximum likelihood analysis (REML). Volume growth of individual eucalypt trees were positively affected by the presence of acacia trees at age 5 years and this effect generally increased with time up to age 10 years. However, the stand volume and basal area increased with increasing proportions of E. pellita, due to its larger individual tree size. Conventional analysis did not offer convincing support for mixed-species designs. Preliminary individual-based modelling using a modified Hegyi competition index offered a solution and an equation that indicates acacias have positive ecological interactions (facilitation or competitive reduction) and definitely do not cause competition like a eucalypt. These results suggest that significantly increased in growth rates could be achieved with mixed-species designs. This statistical methodology could enable a better understanding of species interactions in similarly altered experiments, or undesigned mixed-species plantations.

Genetic analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype A of Indian origin and detection of positive selection and recombination in leader protease- and capsid-coding regions

The leader protease (L-pro) and capsid-coding sequences (P1) constitute approximately 3 kb of the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). We studied the phylogenetic relationship of 46 FMDV serotype A isolates of Indian origin collected during the period 1968-2005 and also eight vaccine strains using the neighbour-joining tree and Bayesian tree methods. The viruses were categorized under three major groups - Asian, Euro-South American and European. The Indian isolates formed a distinct genetic group among the Asian isolates. The Indian isolates were further classified into different genetic subgroups (<5% divergence). Post-1995 isolates were divided into two subgroups while a few isolates which originated in the year 2005 from Andhra Pradesh formed a separate group. These isolates were closely related to the isolates of the 1970s. The FMDV isolates seem to undergo reverse mutation or onvergent evolution wherein sequences identical to the ancestors are present in the isolates in circulation. The eight vaccine strains included in the study were not related to each other and belonged to different genetic groups. Recombination was detected in the L-pro region in one isolate (A IND 20/82) and in the VP1 coding 1D region in another isolate (A RAJ 21/96). Positive selection was identified at aa positions 23 in the L-pro (P<0.05; 0.046*) and at aa 171 in the capsid protein VP1 (P<0.01; 0.003**).