Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Factor analysis for metal grade exploration at Pallancata Vein in Peru

Se investiga la distribución espacial de contenidos metálicos analizados sobre testigos de sondeos obtenidos en las campañas de exploración de la Veta Pallancata. Se aplica el análisis factorial a dicha distribución y a los cocientes de los valores metálicos, discriminando los que están correlacionados con la mineralización argentífera y que sirven como guías de exploración para hallar zonas de potenciales reservas por sus gradientes de variación.Abstract:The metal distribution in a vein may show the paths of hydrothermal fluid flow at the time of mineralization. Such information may assist for in-fill drilling. The Pallancata Vein has been intersected by 52 drill holes, whose cores were sampled and analysed, and the results plotted to examine the mineralisation trends. The spatial distribution of the ore is observed from the logAg/logPb ratio distribution. Au is in this case closely related to Ag (electrum and uytenbogaardtite, Ag3AuS2 ). The Au grade shows the same spatial distribution as the Ag grade. The logAg/logPb ratio distribution also suggests possible ore to be expected at deeper locations. Shallow supergene Ag enrichment was also observed.

Human Factor in Resilience Systems

This paper shows the importance of a holistic comprehension of the Earth as a living planet, where man inhabits and is exposed to environmental incidences of different nature. The aim of the paper here summarized is a reflection on all these concepts and scientific considerations related to the important role of men in the handling of natural hazards. Our Planet is an unstable and dynamical system highly sensitive to initial conditions, as proposed by Chaos theory (González-Miranda 2004); it is a complex organic whole, which responds to minimal variations which can affect several natural phenomena such as plate tectonics, solar flares, fluid turbulences, landscape formation, forest fires, growth and migration of populations and biological evolution. This is known as the “butterfly effect” (Lorenz 1972), which means that a small change of the system causes a chain of events leading to large-scale unpredictable consequences. The aim of this work is dwelling on the importance of the knowledge of these natural and catastrophic geological, biological and human systems so much sensible to equilibrium conditions, to prevent, avoid and mend their effects, and to face them in a resilient way

Manipulation of the membrane binding site of vitamin K-dependent proteins: Enhanced biological function of human factor VII

Recent studies suggested that modification of the membrane contact site of vitamin K-dependent proteins may enhance the membrane affinity and function of members of this protein family. The properties of a factor VII mutant, factor VII-Q10E32, relative to wild-type factor VII (VII, containing P10K32), have been compared. Membrane affinity of VII-Q10E32 was about 20-fold higher than that of wild-type factor VII. The rate of autoactivation VII-Q10E32 with soluble tissue factor was 100-fold faster than wild-type VII and its rate of activation by factor Xa was 30 times greater than that of wild-type factor VII. When combined with soluble tissue factor and phospholipid, activated factor VII-Q10E32 displayed increased activation of factor X. Its coagulant activity was enhanced in all types of plasma and with all sources of tissue factor tested. This difference in activity (maximum 50-fold) was greatest when coagulation conditions were minimal, such as limiting levels of tissue factor and/or phospholipid. Because of its enhanced activity, factor VII-Q10E32 and its derivatives may provide important reagents for research and may be more effective in treatment of bleeding and/or clotting disorders.

Parallel human genome analysis: microarray-based expression monitoring of 1000 genes.

Microarrays containing 1046 human cDNAs of unknown sequence were printed on glass with high-speed robotics. These 1.0-cm2 DNA "chips" were used to quantitatively monitor differential expression of the cognate human genes using a highly sensitive two-color hybridization assay. Array elements that displayed differential expression patterns under given experimental conditions were characterized by sequencing. The identification of known and novel heat shock and phorbol ester-regulated genes in human T cells demonstrates the sensitivity of the assay. Parallel gene analysis with microarrays provides a rapid and efficient method for large-scale human gene discovery.

Successful expression of human factor IX following repeat administration of adenoviral vector in mice.

Adenoviral vectors can direct high-level expression of a transgene, but, due to a host immune response to adenoviral antigens, expression is of limited duration, and repetitive administration has generally been unsuccessful. Exposure to foreign proteins beginning in the neonatal period may alter or ablate the immune response. We injected adult and neonatal (immunocompetent) CD-1 mice intravenously with an adenoviral vector expressing human blood coagulation factor IX. In both groups of mice, expression of human factor IX persisted for 12-16 weeks. However, in mice initially injected as adults, repeat administration of the vector resulted in no detectable expression of the transgene, whereas in mice initially injected in the neonatal period, repeat administration resulted in high-level expression of human factor IX. We show that animals that fail to express the transgene on repeat administration have developed high-titer neutralizing antibodies to adenovirus, whereas those that do express factor IX have not. This experimental model suggests that newborn mice can be tolerized to adenoviral vectors and demonstrates that at least one repeat injection of the adenoviral vector is possible; the model will be useful in elucidating the immunologic mechanisms underlying successful repeat administration of adenoviral vectors.