Area of residence and alcohol-related mortality risk: a five-year follow-up study

Aims

Chernobyl: Living with Risk and Uncertainty

The nuclear accident in Chernobyl in 1986 is a dramatic example of the type of incidents that are characteristic of a risk society. The consequences of the incident are indeterminate, the causes complex and future developments unpredictable. Nothing can compensate for its effects and it affects a broad population indiscriminately. This paper examines the lived experience of those who experienced biographical disruption as residents of the region on the basis of qualitative case studies carried out in 2003 in the Chernobyl regions of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Our analysis indicates that informants tend to view their future as highly uncertain and unpredictable; they experience uncertainty about whether they are already contaminated, and they have to take hazardous decisions about where to go and what to eat. Fear, rumours and experts compete in supplying information to residents about the actual and potential consequences of the disaster, but there is little trust in, and only limited awareness of, the information that is provided. Most informants continue with their lives and do what they must or even what they like, even where the risks are known. They often describe their behaviour as being due to economic circumstances; where there is extreme poverty, even hazardous food sources are better than none. Unlike previous studies, we identify a pronounced tendency among informants not to separate the problems associated with the disaster from the hardships that have resulted from the break-up of the USSR, with both events creating a deep-seated sense of resignation and fatalism. Although most informants hold their governments to blame for lack of information, support and preventive measures, there is little or no collective action to have these put in place. This contrasts with previous research which has suggested that populations affected by disasters attribute crucial significance to that incident and, as a consequence, become increasingly politicized with regard to related policy agendas.

Intra-uterine growth restriction and increased risk of hypertension in adult life: A follow-up study of 50-year-olds

OBJECTIVE:

To compare blood pressure between 50-year-old adults who were born at term (37-42 weeks of gestation) with intra-uterine growth restriction (IUGR; birth weight <10th centile) and a control group of similar age born at term without IUGR (birth weight =10th centile).

STUDY DESIGN:

Controlled comparative study.

METHODS:

Participants included 232 men and women who were born at the Royal Maternity Hospital, Belfast, a large regional maternity hospital in Northern Ireland, between 1954 and 1956. One hundred and eight subjects who were born with IUGR were compared with 124 controls with normal birth weight for gestation. The main outcome measures were systolic and diastolic blood pressure at approximately 50 years of age, measured according to European recommendations.

RESULTS:

The IUGR group had higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure than the control group: 131.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 127.9-135.1] vs 127.1 (95% CI 124.3-129.2) mmHg and 82.3 (95% CI 79.6-85.0) vs 79.0 (95% CI 77.0-81.0) mmHg, respectively. After adjustment for gender, the differences between the groups were statistically significant: systolic blood pressure 4.5 (95% CI 0.3-8.7) mmHg and diastolic blood pressure 3.4 (95% CI 0.2-6.5) mmHg (both P < 0.05). More participants in the IUGR group were receiving treatment for high blood pressure compared with the control group [16 (15%) vs 11 (9%)], although this was not statistically significant. The proportion of subjects with blood pressure >140/90 mmHg or currently receiving antihypertensive treatment was 45% (n = 49) for the IUGR group, and 31% (n = 38) for the control group (odds ratio 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.3). Adjustment for potential confounders made little difference.

CONCLUSIONS:

IUGR is associated with higher blood pressure at 50 years of age. Individuals born with IUGR should have regular blood pressure screening and early treatment as required. Hypertension remains underdiagnosed and undertreated in adult life.

Job Strain as a Risk Factor for Leisure-Time Physical Inactivity: An Individual-Participant Meta-Analysis of Up to 170,000 Men and Women

Unfavorable work characteristics, such as low job control and too high or too low job demands, have been suggested to increase the likelihood of physical inactivity during leisure time, but this has not been verified in large-scale studies. The authors combined individual-level data from 14 European cohort studies (baseline years from 19851988 to 20062008) to examine the association between unfavorable work characteristics and leisure-time physical inactivity in a total of 170,162 employees (50 women; mean age, 43.5 years). Of these employees, 56,735 were reexamined after 29 years. In cross-sectional analyses, the odds for physical inactivity were 26 higher (odds ratio 1.26, 95 confidence interval: 1.15, 1.38) for employees with high-strain jobs (low control/high demands) and 21 higher (odds ratio 1.21, 95 confidence interval: 1.11, 1.31) for those with passive jobs (low control/low demands) compared with employees in low-strain jobs (high control/low demands). In prospective analyses restricted to physically active participants, the odds of becoming physically inactive during follow-up were 21 and 20 higher for those with high-strain (odds ratio 1.21, 95 confidence interval: 1.11, 1.32) and passive (odds ratio 1.20, 95 confidence interval: 1.11, 1.30) jobs at baseline. These data suggest that unfavorable work characteristics may have a spillover effect on leisure-time physical activity.

Fetal Umbilical Artery Doppler Pulsatility Index as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Children - A Long-Term Follow Up Study

Abstract Objective To determine if high umbilical artery Doppler (UAD) pulsatility index (PI) is associated with cardio-vascular (CV) risk-factors in children at age 12 years. Methods We studied 195 children at age 12 years who had had in-utero UAD studies performed at 28 weeks gestation. The children were grouped according to whether their umbilical Doppler PI was high (indicating poor feto-placental circulation) or normal. At age 12 years we assessed CV risk factors, including anthropometric measures, blood pressure, pulse wave velocity (a measure of arterial compliance), cardio-respiratory fitness and homocysteine and cholesterol serum levels. Results Compared with children with a normal UAD PI (N=88), the children (N=107) with high UAD PI had higher resting pulse rate (p=0.04), higher pulse wave velocity (p=0.046), higher serum homocysteine levels (p=0.032) and reduced arterial compliance (7.58 v 8.50 m/sec, p=0.029) using univariate analysis. These differences were not present when adjusting for cofounders was modelled. Conclusion High PI on UAD testing in-utero may be associated with increased likelihood of some cardio-vascular risk factors at age 12-years but confounding variables may be as important. Our study raises possible long-term benefits of in-utero UAD measurements.

Urban and rural differences in risk of admission to a care home: a census-based follow-up study

Research on admissions to care homes for older people has paid more attention to individual and social characteristics than to geographical factors. This paper considers rural-urban differences in household composition and admission rates. Cohort: 51,619 people aged 65 years or older at the time of the 2001 Census and not living in a care home, drawn from a data linkage study based on c.28% of the Northern Ireland population.Living alone was less common in rural areas; 25% of older people in rural areas lived with children compared to 18% in urban areas. Care home admission was more common in urban (4.7%) and intermediate (4.3%) areas than in rural areas (3.2%). Even after adjusting for age, sex, health and living arrangements, the rate of care home admission in rural areas was still only 75% of that in urban areas.People in rural areas experience better family support by living as part of two or three generation households. Even after accounting for this difference, older rural dwellers are less likely to enter care homes; suggesting that neighbours and relatives in rural areas provide more informal care; or that there may be differential deployment of formal home care services.

Parent Prediction of Autism Spectrum Disorder in Infants At Risk: A Follow-up Study

Later-born siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are considered at biological risk for ASD and the broader autism phenotype. Early screening may detect early signs of ASD and facilitate intervention as soon as possible. This follow-up study revisits and re-examines a second-degree autism screener for children at biological risk of autism, the Parent Observation Early Markers Scale (POEMS, Feldman et al., 2012). Using available follow-up information, 110 children (the original 108 infants plus 2 infants recruited after the completion of the original study) were divided into three groups: diagnosed group (n = 13), lost diagnosis group (n = 5), and undiagnosed group (n = 92). The POEMS continued to show acceptable predictive validity. The POEMS total scores and mean number of elevated items were significantly higher in the diagnosed group than the undiagnosed group. The lost diagnosis group did not differ from the undiagnosed group on POEMS total scores and elevated items at any age, but the lost diagnosis group had significantly lower total scores and number of elevated items than the diagnosed group starting at 18 months. Both ASD core and subsidiary behaviours differentiated the diagnosed and undiagnosed groups from 9−36 months of age. Using 70 as a cut-off score, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) were .69, .84, and .38, respectively. The study provides further evidence that the POEMS may serve as a low-cost early screener for ASD in at risk children and pinpoint specific developmental and behavioural problems that may be amenable to very early intervention.

Nutrigenetics and CVD: what does the future hold?

CVD is a common killer in both the Western world and the developing world. It is a multifactorial disease that is influenced by many environmental and genetic factors. Although public health advice to date has been principally in the form of prescribed population-based recommendations, this approach has been surprisingly unsuccessful in reducing CVD risk. This outcome may be explained, in part, by the extreme variability in response to dietary manipulations between individuals and interactions between diet and an individual's genetic background, which are defined by the term 'nutrigenetics'. The shift towards personalised nutritional advice is a very attractive proposition. In principle an individual could be genotyped and given dietary advice specifically tailored to their genetic make-up. Evidence-based research into interactions between fixed genetic variants, nutrient intake and biomarkers of CVD risk is increasing, but still limited. The present paper will review the evidence for interactions between dietary fat and three common polymorphisms in the apoE, apoAI and PPAR gamma genes. Increased knowledge of how these and other genes influence dietary response should increase the understanding of personalised nutrition. While targeted dietary advice may have considerable potential for reducing CVD risk, the ethical issues associated with its routine use need careful consideration.

The relationship between size, diversification and risk

Property portfolio diversification takes many forms, most of which can be associated with asset size. In other words larger property portfolios are assumed to have greater diversification potential than small portfolios. In addition, since greater diversification is generally associated with lower risk it is assumed that larger property portfolios will also have reduced return variability compared with smaller portfolios. If large property portfolios can simply be regarded as scaled-up, better-diversified versions of small property portfolios, then the greater a portfolio’s asset size, the lower its risk. This suggests a negative relationship between asset size and risk. However, if large property portfolios are not simply scaled-up versions of small portfolios, the relationship between asset size and risk may be unclear. For instance, if large portfolios hold riskier assets or pursue more volatile investment strategies, it may be that a positive relationship between asset size and risk would be observed, even if large property portfolios are more diversified. This paper tests the empirical relationship between property portfolio size, diversification and risk, in Institutional portfolios in the UK, during the period from 1989 to 1999 to determine which of these two characterisations is more appropriate.

The use of culture-independent tools to characterize bacteria in endo-tracheal aspirates from pre-term infants at risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia

Although premature infants are increasingly surviving the neonatal period, up to one-third develop bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Despite evidence that bacterial colonization of the neonatal respiratory tract by certain bacteria may be a risk factor in BPD development, little is known about the role these bacteria play. The aim of this study was to investigate the use of culture-independent molecular profiling methodologies to identify potential etiological agents in neonatal airway secretions. This study used terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) and clone sequence analyses to characterize bacterial species in endo-tracheal (ET) aspirates from eight intubated pre-term infants. A wide range of different bacteria was identified in the samples. Forty-seven T-RF band lengths were resolved in the sample set, with a range of 0-15 separate species in each patient. Clone sequence analyses confirmed the identity of individual species detected by T-RFLP. We speculate that the identification of known opportunistic pathogens including S. aureus, Enterobacter sp., Moraxella catarrhalis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Streptococcus sp., within the airways of pre-term infants, might be causally related to the subsequent development of BPD. Further, we suggest that culture-independent techniques, such as T-RFLP, hold important potential for the characterization of neonatal conditions, such as BPD.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunctions are independent risk factors for mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up: the Japanese-Brazilian thyroid study

Objective: The currently available data concerning the influence of subclinical thyroid disease (STD) on morbidity and mortality are conflicting. Our objective was to investigate the relationships between STD and cardiometabolic profile and cardiovascular disease at baseline, as well as with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up. Design: Prospective, observational study. Methods: An overall of 1110 Japanese-Brazilians aged above 30 years, free of thyroid disease, and not taking thyroid medication at baseline were studied. In a cross-sectional analysis, we investigated the prevalence of STD and its relationship with cardiometabolic profile and cardiovascular disease. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were assessed for participants followed for up to 7.5 years. Association between STD and mortality was drawn using multivariate analysis, adjusting for potential confounders. Results: A total of 913 (82.3%) participants had euthyroidism, 99 (8.7%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, and 69 (6.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. At baseline, no association was found between STD and cardiometabolic profile or cardiovascular disease. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs (95% confidence interval)) for all-cause mortality were significantly higher for individuals with both subclinical hyperthyroidism (HR, 3.0 (1.5-5.9); n=14) and subclinical hypothyroidism (HR, 2.3 (1.2-4.4); n=13) than for euthyroid subjects. Cardiovascular mortality was significantly associated with subclinical hyperthyroidism (HR, 3.3 (1.4-7.5); n=8), but not with subclinical hypothyroidism (HR, 1.6 (0.6-4.2); n=5). Conclusion: In the Japanese-Brazilian population, subclinical hyperthyroidism is an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, while subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with all-cause mortality.