Estimating expected excess returns using historical and option-implied volatility

We test the relation between expected and realized excess returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1994 through December 2003 using the proportional reward-to-risk measure to estimate expected returns. When risk is measured by historical volatility, we find no relation between expected and realized excess returns. In contrast, when risk is measured by option-implied volatility, we find a positive and significant relation between expected and realized excess returns in the 1994–1998 subperiod. In the 1999–2003 subperiod, the option-implied volatility risk measure yields a positive, but statistically insignificant, risk-return relation. We attribute this performance difference to the fact that, in the 1994–1998 subperiod, return volatility was lower and the average return was much higher than in the 1999–2003 subperiod, thereby increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in the latter subperiod.

Syphilis and AIDS : historical and social comparisons

Drawing on the literatures of history, sociology, epidemiology, and microbiology, this thesis compares syphillis with human immunodeficiency virus, with special reference to the social and historical factors likely to be relevant to the control or eradication of acquired imune dificiency syndrom (AIDS). The sudden appearance of a new disease causing suffering and death in a community, engenders apprehension and fear which is often manifested as hysteria against, and vilification of, those who have the disease. This fear is greatly increased should the disease be sexually-transmitted. Syphilis in a venereal form, occured in Europe toward the end of the 15th Century. Initially it was an acute, fulminating disease which rapidly spread through Europe and Asia. Attempts to control the disease have gone through periods of either partial successes or massive failures and have ended in frustration for the authorities. When the syndrome of acquired immune deficiency (AIDS) was first reported, it was seen in Western countries in homosexual men. However, as non-homosexual community members and children became infected, it became apparent to authorities that a pandemic was accurring. Within a few years, the disease was identified worldwide. Isolation of the virus (HIV-1), and development of test for detection of carriers, plus restoration of clean blood and blood-product supplies, have reassured the community to some extent. The history of syphilis shows that neither the epidemiological medical, nor the economic political approaches to disease control work, although there are positive aspects resulting from both. It is social responses that will offer the most hope in the long term for the control of AIDS and other sexually-transmitted diseases.

Social justice in Australian higher education policy : an historical and conceptual account of student participation

This article provides a synoptic account of historically changing conceptions and practices of social justice in Australian higher education policy. It maps the changes in this policy arena, beginning with the period following the Second World War and concluding with an analysis of the most recent policy proposals of the Bradley Review. Concurrently, it explores the different meanings ascribed to social justice, equity and social inclusion over this time span and what these have meant and will mean for students, particularly those from low socio-economic backgrounds. It concludes that a relational understanding of social justice – ‘recognitive justice’ – is yet to inform student equity policy in higher education, although this is now what is required in the context of the planned shift from mass to universal participation.

The role of the ord arid intrusion in the historical and contemporary genetic division of long-tailed finch subspecies in northern Australia

The effect of separation by biogeographic features followed by secondary contact can blur taxonomic boundaries and produce complex genetic signatures. We analyzed population structure and gene flow across the range of the long-tailed finch (Poephila acuticauda) in northern Australia (1) to test the hypothesis that Ord Arid Intrusion acted as the causative barrier that led to divergence of P. acuticauda subspecies, (2) to determine whether genetic data support the presence of a gradual cline across the range or a sudden shift, both of which have been suggested based on morphological data, and (3) to estimate levels of contemporary gene flow within this species complex. We collected samples from 302 individuals from 10 localities. Analyses of 12 microsatellite loci and sequence data from 333 base pairs of the mitochondrial control region were used to estimate population structure and gene flow, using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), haplotype network analysis, frequency statistics, and clustering methods. Mitochondrial sequence data indicated the presence of three genetic groups (regions) across the range of P. acuticauda. Genetic diversity was highest in the east and lowest in the west. The Ord Arid Intrusion appears to have functioned as a biogeographic barrier in the past, according to mtDNA evidence presented here and evidence from previous studies. The absence of isolation by distance between adjacent regions and the lack of population genetic structure of mtDNA within regions indicates that genetic changes across the range of P. acuticauda subspecies are characterized by discrete breaks between regions. While microsatellite data indicate a complete absence of genetic structure across this species’ range, it appears unlikely that this results from high levels of gene flow. Mitochondrial data do not support the presence of contemporary gene flow across the range of this species.

The use of insects and associated arthropods in legal cases : a historical and practical perspective

 Forensic entomology has generally been recognised among law enforcement and the wider community as a science employed in the estimation of time since death. The utility of this science in contributing to the provision of time frames resulting in the focusing of valuable investigative resources has certainly been of the greatest importance. However, arthropods have been exploited extensively for their ability to provide information in a multitude of other situations, including cases of neglect, the food industry, and information relating to the cause and manner of death. This chapter will discuss the realm of information obtainable from insects and related groups in the forensic context, including and beyond the recognised time since death applications. Two areas of current research, molecular forensic entomology and entomotoxicology, will be discussed for their potential impact in the field.

The impact of divergent historical and cultural factors on convergence in global communication practice

Communication practice is increasingly converging around globally consistent approaches and techniques shaped by both globalisation and globalising communications technologies. However, this paper argues, national and regional practice histories and cultural characteristics have shaped, and continue to shape, practice in individual markets. The paper analyses the extent of that these divergent histories and cultures have shaped the structure and practices of the public relations industry in Australia and other countries. The paper challenges the common assumptions about public relations development and industry practice having developed from a predominantly US-based model progressively disseminated globally. It traces the history of public relations in Australia, counter-pointing its distinctive origins, to the US-origin thesis. It also examines the impact of demography and diverse national culture on industry shape and practice, comparing the Australian industry to that of other industries around the world. It uses mini-case studies of campaigns in specific countries to assess the extent to which they are culturally-bound by historical and cultural differences and the extent to which they are capable of being transferred or adapted to individual markets. For instance, assumptions about globally-consistent brand identities are contradicted by McDonalds’ branding practices in markets such as Canada and Japan. The paper also discusses how emerging market PR industries are being shaped by distinctive and divergent cultures and development paths and may create new structural and practice models as the emerging economies becoming dominant internationally. The authors suggest that history and cultural diversity continue, and will continue to, shape national and regional practices.

Reassessing the Holy Reich: leading Nazis' views on confession, community and 'Jewish' materialism

 Returning to the Journal of Contemporary History debate on The Holy Reich, this article argues that the notion of 'positive Christianity' as  Nazi 'religious system' has been largely invented. It offers a close analysis of significant public statements on National socialism by three leading Nazis: Adolf Hitler, Gottfried Feder and Alfred Rosenberg.

The impact of divergent historical and cultural factors on convergence in global communication practice

Communication practice is increasingly converging around globally consistent approaches and techniques shaped by both globalisation and globalising communications technologies. However, this paper argues, national and regional practice histories and cultural characteristics have shaped, and continue to shape, practice in individual markets. The paper analyses the extent of that these divergent histories and cultures have shaped the structure and practices of the public relations industry in Australia and other countries. The paper challenges the common assumptions about public relations development and industry practice having developed from a predominantly US-based model progressively disseminated globally. It traces the history of public relations in Australia, counterpointing its distinctive origins, to the US-origin thesis. It also examines the impact of demography and diverse national culture on industry shape and practice, comparing the Australian industry to that of other industries around the world. It uses mini-case studies of campaigns in specific countries to assess the extent to which they are culturally bound by historical and cultural differences and the extent to which they are capable of being transferred or adapted to individual markets. For instance, assumptions about globally consistent brand identities are contradicted by McDonald’s’ branding practices in markets such as Canada and Japan. The paper also discusses how emerging market PR industries are being shaped by distinctive and divergent cultures and development paths and may create new structural and practice models as the emerging economies becoming dominant internationally. The authors suggest that history and cultural diversity continue, and will continue to, shape national and regional practices.

Therapeutic approaches to disease modifying therapy for multiple sclerosis in adults: an Australian and New Zealand perspective: part 1 historical and established therapies

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a potentially life-changing immune mediated disease of the central nervous system. Until recently, treatment has been largely confined to acute treatment of relapses, symptomatic therapies and rehabilitation. Through persistent efforts of dedicated physicians and scientists around the globe for 160 years, a number of therapies that have an impact on the long term outcome of the disease have emerged over the past 20 years. In this three part series we review the practicalities, benefits and potential hazards of each of the currently available and emerging treatment options for MS. We pay particular attention to ways of abrogating the risks of these therapies and provide advice on the most appropriate indications for using individual therapies. In Part 1 we review the history of the development of MS therapies and its connection with the underlying immunobiology of the disease. The established therapies for MS are reviewed in detail and their current availability and indications in Australia and New Zealand are summarised. We examine the evidence to support their use in the treatment of MS.

Historical and recent biological markers of exposure to fluoride

Recent and historical biomarkers assess chronic or subchronic exposure to fluoride. The most studied recent biomarkers are nails and hair. Both can be non-invasively obtained, although collection of nails is more accepted by the subjects. External contamination may be a problem for both biomarkers and still needs to be better evaluated. Nails have been more extensively studied. Although the available knowledge does not allow their use as predictors of dental fluorosis by individual subjects, since reference values of fluoride have not yet been established, they have a strong potential for use in epidemiological surveys. Toenails should be preferred instead of fingernails, and variables that are known to affect nail fluoride concentrations - such as age, gender and geographical area - should be considered. The main historical biomarkers that could indicate total fluoride body burden are bone and dentin. Of these, bone is more studied, but its fluoride concentrations vary according to the type of bone and subjects' age and gender. They are also influenced by genetic background, renal function and remodeling rate, variables that complicate the establishment of a normal range of fluoride levels in bone that could indicate 'desirable' exposure to fluoride. The main issue when attempting to use bone as biomarker of fluoride exposure is the difficulty and invasiveness of sample collection. In this aspect, collection of dentin, especially from 3rd molars that are commonly extracted, is advantageous. However, mean values also span a wide range and reference concentrations have not been published yet. © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.