Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

The von Neumann Minimax Theorem and its relatives and a study of externality in on-line auctions

This work consists of a theoretical part and an experimental one. The first part provides a simple treatment of the celebrated von Neumann minimax theorem as formulated by Nikaid6 and Sion. It also discusses its relationships with fundamental theorems of convex analysis. The second part is about externality in sponsored search auctions. It shows that in these auctions, advertisers have externality effects on each other which influence their bidding behavior. It proposes Hal R.Varian model and shows how adding externality to this model will affect its properties. In order to have a better understanding of the interaction among advertisers in on-line auctions, it studies the structure of the Google advertisements networ.k and shows that it is a small-world scale-free network.

An Interactive Theorem Prover for First-Order Dynamic Logic

Dynamic logic is an extension of modal logic originally intended for reasoning about computer programs. The method of proving correctness of properties of a computer program using the well-known Hoare Logic can be implemented by utilizing the robustness of dynamic logic. For a very broad range of languages and applications in program veri cation, a theorem prover named KIV (Karlsruhe Interactive Veri er) Theorem Prover has already been developed. But a high degree of automation and its complexity make it di cult to use it for educational purposes. My research work is motivated towards the design and implementation of a similar interactive theorem prover with educational use as its main design criteria. As the key purpose of this system is to serve as an educational tool, it is a self-explanatory system that explains every step of creating a derivation, i.e., proving a theorem. This deductive system is implemented in the platform-independent programming language Java. In addition, a very popular combination of a lexical analyzer generator, JFlex, and the parser generator BYacc/J for parsing formulas and programs has been used.

A Representation Theorem for Domains with Discrete and Continuous Variables.

This paper proves a new representation theorem for domains with both discrete and continuous variables. The result generalizes Debreu's well-known representation theorem on connected domains. A strengthening of the standard continuity axiom is used in order to guarantee the existence of a representation. A generalization of the main theorem and an application of the more general result are also presented.

Arrow's Theorem in Spatial Environments

In spatial environments, we consider social welfare functions satisfying Arrow's requirements. i.e., weak Pareto and independence of irrelevant alternatives. When the policy space os a one-dimensional continuum, such a welfare function is determined by a collection of 2n strictly quasi-concave preferences and a tie-breaking rule. As a corrollary, we obtain that when the number of voters is odd, simple majority voting is transitive if and only if each voter's preference is strictly quasi-concave. When the policy space is multi-dimensional, we establish Arrow's impossibility theorem. Among others, we show that weak Pareto, independence of irrelevant alternatives, and non-dictatorship are inconsistent if the set of alternatives has a non-empty interior and it is compact and convex.

Harsanyi’s Social Aggregation Theorem : A Multi-Profile Approach with Variable-Population Extensions

This paper provides new versions of Harsanyi’s social aggregation theorem that are formulated in terms of prospects rather than lotteries. Strengthening an earlier result, fixed-population ex-ante utilitarianism is characterized in a multi-profile setting with fixed probabilities. In addition, we extend the social aggregation theorem to social-evaluation problems under uncertainty with a variable population and generalize our approach to uncertain alternatives, which consist of compound vectors of probability distributions and prospects.

A Generalization of a Theorem of Boyd and Lawton

Ce mémoire s’applique à étudier d’abord, dans la première partie, la mesure de Mahler des polynômes à une seule variable. Il commence en donnant des définitions et quelques résultats pertinents pour le calcul de telle hauteur. Il aborde aussi le sujet de la question de Lehmer, la conjecture la plus célèbre dans le domaine, donne quelques exemples et résultats ayant pour but de résoudre la question. Ensuite, il y a l’extension de la mesure de Mahler sur les polynômes à plusieurs variables, une démarche semblable au premier cas de la mesure de Mahler, et le sujet des points limites avec quelques exemples. Dans la seconde partie, on commence par donner des définitions concernant un ordre supérieur de la mesure de Mahler, et des généralisations en passant des polynômes simples aux polynômes à plusieurs variables. La question de Lehmer existe aussi dans le domaine de la mesure de Mahler supérieure, mais avec des réponses totalement différentes. À la fin, on arrive à notre objectif, qui sera la démonstration de la généralisation d’un théorème de Boyd-Lawton, ce dernier met en évidence une relation entre la mesure de Mahler des polynômes à plusieurs variables avec la limite de la mesure de Mahler des polynômes à une seule variable. Ce résultat a des conséquences en termes de la conjecture de Lehmer et sert à clarifier la relation entre les valeurs de la mesure de Mahler des polynômes à une variable et celles des polynômes à plusieurs variables, qui, en effet, sont très différentes en nature.

Studies on Thermodynamics and No-hair Theorem in Black hole Spacetime

Department of Physics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Modeling of ALFA Programs Using PVS Theorem Prover

In Safety critical software failure can have a high price. Such software should be free of errors before it is put into operation. Application of formal methods in the Software Development Life Cycle helps to ensure that the software for safety critical missions are ultra reliable. PVS theorem prover, a formal method tool, can be used for the formal verification of software in ADA Language for Flight Software Application (ALFA.). This paper describes the modeling of ALFA programs for PVS theorem prover. An ALFA2PVS translator is developed which automatically converts the software in ALFA to PVS specification. By this approach the software can be verified formally with respect to underflow/overflow errors and divide by zero conditions without the actual execution of the code.

Modeling of ALFA Programs Using PVS Theorem Prover

In Safety critical software failure can have a high price. Such software should be free of errors before it is put into operation. Application of formal methods in the Software Development Life Cycle helps to ensure that the software for safety critical missions are ultra reliable. PVS theorem prover, a formal method tool, can be used for the formal verification of software in ADA Language for Flight Software Application (ALFA.). This paper describes the modeling of ALFA programs for PVS theorem prover. An ALFA2PVS translator is developed which automatically converts the software in ALFA to PVS specification. By this approach the software can be verified formally with respect to underflow/overflow errors and divide by zero conditions without the actual execution of the code

Characterization theorem for classical orthogonal polynomials on non-uniform lattices: The functional approach

Using the functional approach, we state and prove a characterization theorem for classical orthogonal polynomials on non-uniform lattices (quadratic lattices of a discrete or a q-discrete variable) including the Askey-Wilson polynomials. This theorem proves the equivalence between seven characterization properties, namely the Pearson equation for the linear functional, the second-order divided-difference equation, the orthogonality of the derivatives, the Rodrigues formula, two types of structure relations,and the Riccati equation for the formal Stieltjes function.

Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium and the Ternary Plot

The Hardy-Weinberg law, formulated about 100 years ago, states that under certain assumptions, the three genotypes AA, AB and BB at a bi-allelic locus are expected to occur in the proportions p2, 2pq, and q2 respectively, where p is the allele frequency of A, and q = 1-p. There are many statistical tests being used to check whether empirical marker data obeys the Hardy-Weinberg principle. Among these are the classical xi-square test (with or without continuity correction), the likelihood ratio test, Fisher's Exact test, and exact tests in combination with Monte Carlo and Markov Chain algorithms. Tests for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) are numerical in nature, requiring the computation of a test statistic and a p-value. There is however, ample space for the use of graphics in HWE tests, in particular for the ternary plot. Nowadays, many genetical studies are using genetical markers known as Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs). SNP data comes in the form of counts, but from the counts one typically computes genotype frequencies and allele frequencies. These frequencies satisfy the unit-sum constraint, and their analysis therefore falls within the realm of compositional data analysis (Aitchison, 1986). SNPs are usually bi-allelic, which implies that the genotype frequencies can be adequately represented in a ternary plot. Compositions that are in exact HWE describe a parabola in the ternary plot. Compositions for which HWE cannot be rejected in a statistical test are typically “close" to the parabola, whereas compositions that differ significantly from HWE are “far". By rewriting the statistics used to test for HWE in terms of heterozygote frequencies, acceptance regions for HWE can be obtained that can be depicted in the ternary plot. This way, compositions can be tested for HWE purely on the basis of their position in the ternary plot (Graffelman & Morales, 2008). This leads to nice graphical representations where large numbers of SNPs can be tested for HWE in a single graph. Several examples of graphical tests for HWE (implemented in R software), will be shown, using SNP data from different human populations

Tess of the d'Urbervilles. Thomas Hardy : AS-A level English literature resource pack.

Guía del profesor para el estudio de la obra 'Tess of the d'Urbervilles' (publicada a finales del siglo XIX) del autor británico Thomas Hardy, en el nivel AS-A (bachillerato) de la asignatura de Literatura Inglesa. Los materiales están divididos en cuatro secciones: contextos, actividades, evaluación y recursos. El objetivo es ayudar a los estudiantes a familiarizarse con el texto, a apreciar su importancia como obra literaria, y a responder de forma detallada y analítica en el desarrollo de un trabajo de curso o un examen. Para ello se trata ampliamente la caracterización de los personajes, los temas y el lenguaje, y se incluyen prácticas de examen de redacción y ensayo.