Children living in HIV families : a review

This review article summarizes the current knowledge about children born or living in families affected by HIV, a topic of recent interest in the HIV field. It also presents a case study of a child's narrative about the implications of living with a HIV parent. The case study is part of a larger study involving both parents and children living with HIV in Bangladesh. The paper discusses the implications of HIV for children, their families, and social services to gain a better understanding of some of the social issues, such as stigma, associated with this illness. The paper recommends that the development of effective social and service interventions using appropriate language, information, and access to social support services are urgently needed to reduce the concerns and increases the life opportunities of children living in HIV families.

Model refinement through high-performance computing: an agent-based HIV example

Background Recent advances in Immunology highlighted the importance of local properties on the overall progression of HIV infection. In particular, the gastrointestinal tract is seen as a key area during early infection, and the massive cell depletion associated with it may influence subsequent disease progression. This motivated the development of a large-scale agent-based model. Results Lymph nodes are explicitly implemented, and considerations on parallel computing permit large simulations and the inclusion of local features. The results obtained show that GI tract inclusion in the model leads to an accelerated disease progression, during both the early stages and the long-term evolution, compared to a theoretical, uniform model. Conclusions These results confirm the potential of treatment policies currently under investigation, which focus on this region. They also highlight the potential of this modelling framework, incorporating both agent-based and network-based components, in the context of complex systems where scaling-up alone does not result in models providing additional insights.

Monoclonal antibody screening of a phage-displayed random peptide library reveals mimotopes of chemokine receptor CCR5: Implications for the tertiary structure of the receptor and for an n-terminal binding site for HIV-1 gp120

The chemokine receptor CCR5 contains seven transmembrane-spanning domains. It binds chemokines and acts as co-receptor for macrophage (m)-tropic (or R5) strains of HIV-1. Monoclonal antibodies (mAb) to CCR5, 3A9 and 5C7, were used for biopanning a nonapeptide cysteine (C)-constrained phage-displayed random peptide library to ascertain contact residues and define tertiary structures of possible epitopes on CCR5. Reactivity of antibodies with phagotopes was established by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). mAb 3A9 identified a phagotope C-HASIYDFGS-C (3A9/1), and 5C7 most frequently identified C-PHWLRDLRV-C (5C7/1). Corresponding peptides were synthesized. Phagotopes and synthetic peptides reacted in ELISA with corresponding antibodies and synthetic peptides inhibited antibody binding to the phagotopes. Reactivity by immunofluorescence of 3A9 with CCR5 was strongly inhibited by the corresponding peptide. Both mAb 3A9 and 5C7 reacted similarly with phagotopes and the corresponding peptide selected by the alternative mAb. The sequences of peptide inserts of phagotopes could be aligned as mimotopes of the sequence of CCR5. For phage 3A9/1, the motif SIYD aligned to residues at the N terminus and FG to residues on the first extracellular loop; for 5C7/1, residues at the N terminus, first extracellular loop, and possibly the third extracellular loop could be aligned and so would contribute to the mimotope. The synthetic peptides corresponding to the isolated phagotopes showed a CD4-dependent reactivity with gp120 of a primary, m-tropic HIV-1 isolate. Thus reactivity of antibodies raised to CCR5 against phage-displayed peptides defined mimotopes that reflect binding sites for these antibodies and reveal a part of the gp120 binding sites on CCR5.

Immunointervention for patients with HIV and tuberculosis

Therapeutic options aimed at confronting the HIV pandemic face many obstacles. Current opinion on HIV-induced pathogenic immune activation and strategies aimed at eliminating HIV, including a potential role for non-neutralising antibodies as part of a therapeutic vaccine option, was elegantly reviewed by Martin Cadogan and Angus Dalgleish. 1 It is important to note that, for eliciting such antibody responses in patients, functionally fit antigen presenting cells and effector T and B cells are cruc.

The influence of HIV infection to the periodontium; a clinical, microbiological, and enzymological study

The main targets of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are CD4 receptors of CD4+ lymphocytes and many other cells such as monocytes/macrophages, megakaryocytes, peripheral blood dendritic cells, follicular dendritic cells (DC), epidermal Langerhans cells, and astrocytes. Infection and killing of CD4+ lymphocytes or false reaction of the body to HIV infection and the spontaneous apoptosis of CD4+ lymphocytes decrease CD4+ lymphocyte counts leading to immunosuppression, further disease progression, and appearance of opportunistic infections and malignancies. Oral manifestations are considered to be among the first signs of HIV infection. Enhanced degradation of extracellular matrix and basement membrane components in oral diseases including periodontitis is caused by Zn-dependent enzymes called matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). The levels and degrees of activation of MMP-1, -2, -3, -7, -8, -9, -25, -26, tissue inhibitors of MMPs (TIMP)-1 and -2, and myeloperoxidase (MPO) and collagenolytic/gelatinolytic activities, and also Ig A, -G, and -M, total protein, and albumin levels in a two-year follow-up were studied from salivary samples. The expression of MMP-7, -8, -9, -25, and -26 immunoreactivities in gingival tissue specimens were studied. Healthy HIV-negative subjects served as controls. All studied clinical periodontal parameters and microbiological evaluation of the periodontopathogens showed that periodontal health of the HIV-positive patients was moderately decreased in comparison to the healthy controls. The levels of Candida in the periodontal pockets and salivary MPO increased with the severity of HIV infection. Immunoreactivities and levels of MMPs and TIMPs, and MMP activities (collagenase, gelatinase) were enhanced in the HIV-positive patient salivary samples relative to the healthy controls regardless of the phase of HIV infection. However, these parameters did not reflect periodontal status in a similar way as in the generally healthy periodontitis patients. Salivary total protein, albumin, IgA, -G, and -M levels were significantly higher in all phases of HIV infection compared to the controls, and salivary total protein, IgG and IgM levels remained higher after two years follow-up, partly correlating with the disease progression and which may reflect the leakage of serum components into the mouth and thus a decreased mucosal barrier. Salivary analyses of MMPs and TIMPs with immunohistochemical analyses showed that HIV infection could predispose to periodontal destruction when compared with healthy controls or the body s defence reactions associated with HIV infection may have been reflected or mediated by MMPs.

Quantitative Trait Loci for CD4:CD8 Lymphocyte Ratio Are Associated with Risk of Type 1 Diabetes and HIV-1 Immune Control

Abnormal expansion or depletion of particular lymphocyte subsets is associated with clinical manifestations such as HIV progression to AIDS and autoimmune disease. We sought to identify genetic predictors of lymphocyte levels and reasoned that these may play a role in immune-related diseases. We tested 2.3 million variants for association with five lymphocyte subsets, measured in 2538 individuals from the general population, including CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells, CD56+ natural killer (NK) cells, and the derived measure CD4:CD8 ratio. We identified two regions of strong association. The first was located in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with multiple SNPs strongly associated with CD4:CD8 ratio (rs2524054, p = 2.1 × 10−28). The second region was centered within a cluster of genes from the Schlafen family and was associated with NK cell levels (rs1838149, p = 6.1 × 10−14). The MHC association with CD4:CD8 replicated convincingly (p = 1.4 × 10−9) in an independent panel of 988 individuals. Conditional analyses indicate that there are two major independent quantitative trait loci (QTL) in the MHC region that regulate CD4:CD8 ratio: one is located in the class I cluster and influences CD8 levels, whereas the second is located in the class II cluster and regulates CD4 levels. Jointly, both QTL explained 8% of the variance in CD4:CD8 ratio. The class I variants are also strongly associated with durable host control of HIV, and class II variants are associated with type-1 diabetes, suggesting that genetic variation at the MHC may predispose one to immune-related diseases partly through disregulation of T cell homeostasis.

Metacognitions mediate HIV stigma and depression/anxiety in men who have sex with men living with HIV

The study examined whether the relationships between HIV stigma and depression and anxiety would be mediated by metacognitive beliefs and thought control strategies in men who have sex with men living with HIV. Men who have sex with men living with HIV completed an online survey that measured 30-item Metacognitions Questionnaire, thought control strategies (Thought Control Questionnaire), as well as symptoms of depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9) and anxiety (generalized anxiety disorder-7). The relationships between internalised and anticipated HIV stigma with depressive symptoms were mediated by Negative Metacognitive Beliefs and the use of Worry and Social thought control strategies. Negative Metacognitive Beliefs mediated the association between internalised HIV stigma and anxiety symptoms.

Obstetric and gynaecological aspects of HIV infection

The purpose of the present study was to examine the outcome of pregnancies among HIV-infected women in Helsinki, use of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) among HIV-infected women and the prevalence and risk factors of cytological and histologically proven cervical lesions in this population. Between 1993 and 2003 a total of 45 HIV-infected women delivered 52 singleton infants. HIV infection was diagnosed during pregnancy in 40% of the mothers. Seventeen of the mothers received antiretroviral (ARV) medication prior to pregnancy and in 34 cases, the medication was started during pregnancy. A good virological response (i.e. HIV RNA load <1000/mL during the last trimester) to ARV medication was achieved in 36/40 (90%) of the patients in whom HI viral load measurements were performed. Of the infants, 92% were born at term, and their mean (±SD) birth weight was 3350±395 g. The Caesarean section rate was low, 25%. All newborns received ARV medication and none of the infants born to mothers with pre-delivery diagnosis of maternal HIV infection were infected. The safety and advantages of the LNG-IUS were studied prospectively (n=12) and retrospectively (n=6). The LNG-IUS was well tolerated and no cases of PID or pregnancy were noted. Menstrual bleeding was reduced significantly during use of the LNG-IUS; this was associated with a slight increase in haemoglobin levels. Serum oestradiol concentrations remained in the follicular range in all subjects. The key finding was that genital shedding of HIV RNA did not change after the insertion of the LNG-IUS. The mean annual prevalence of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) was 15% and that of high-grade SIL was 5% among 108 systematically followed HIV-infected women during 1989 2003. A reduced CD4 lymphocyte count was associated with an increased prevalence of SIL, whereas duration of HIV infection, use of ARV medication and HI viral load were not. The cumulative risk of any type of SIL was 17% after one year and 48% after five years among patients with initially normal Pap smears. The risk of developing SIL was associated with young age and a high initial HI viral load. During the follow-up 51 subjects (n=153) displayed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), (16% CIN1 and 18% CIN 2-3). Only one case of cancer of the uterine cervix was detected. Pap smears were reliable in screening for CIN. Both nulliparity (p<0.01) and bacterial vaginosis (p<0.04) emerged as significant risk factors of CIN. In conclusion, a combination of universal antenatal screening and multidisciplinary management allows individualized treatment and prevents vertical transmission of HIV. Use of the LNG-IUS is safe among HIV-infected women and cervicovaginal shedding of HIV RNA is not affected by use of the LNG-IUS. The risk of cervical pre-malignant lesions is high among HIV-infected women despite systematic follow-up.

HIV outbreak among injecting drug users in Finland

An HIV outbreak among Finnish injecting drug users (IDUs) occurred in 1998. By the end of 2005, 282 IDUs were in-fected, most of them by recombinant virus CRF01_AE of HIV. After a rapid spread, the outbreak subsided, and the prevalence of HIV among IDUs remained low (<2%). The purpose of the study was to describe the outbreak in order to recognise factors that have influenced the spread and restriction of the outbreak, and thus to find tools for HIV preven-tion. Data on Finnish IDUs newly diagnosed HIV-positive between 1998 and 2005 was collected through interviews and patient documents. Study I compared markers of disease progression between 93 Finnish IDUs and 63 Dutch IDUs. In study II, geographical spread of the HIV outbreak was examined and compared with the spatial distribution of employed males. In study III, risk behaviour data from interviews of 89 HIV-positive and 207 HIV-negative IDUs was linked, and prevalence and risk factors for unprotected sex were evaluated. In study IV, data on 238 newly diagnosed IDUs was combined with data on 675 sexually transmitted HIV cases, and risk factors for late HIV diagnosis (CD4 cell count <200/µL, or AIDS at HIV diagnosis) were analysed. Finnish IDUs infected with CRF01_AE exhibited higher viral loads than did Amsterdam IDUs infected with subtype B, but there was no difference in CD4 development. The Finnish IDU outbreak spread and was restricted socially in a marginalised IDU population and geographically in areas characterised by low proportions of employed males. Up to 40% of the cases in the two clusters outside the city centre had no contact with the centre, where needle exchange services were available since 1997. Up to 63% of HIV-positive and 80% of HIV-negative sexually active IDUs reported inconsistent condom use, which was associated with steady relationships and recent inpatient addiction care. Com-pared to other transmission groups, HIV-positive IDUs were diagnosed earlier in their infection. The proportion of late diagnosed HIV cases in all transmission groups was 23%, but was only 6% among IDUs diagnosed during the first four years of the epidemic. The high viral load in early HIV infection may have contributed to the rapid spread of recombinant virus in the Finnish outbreak. The outbreak was restricted to a marginalised IDU population, and limited spatially to local pockets of pov-erty. To prevent HIV among IDUs, these pockets should be recognised and reached early through outreach work and the distribution of needle exchange and other prevention activities. To prevent the sexual transmission of HIV among IDUs, prevention programmes should be combined with addiction care services and targeted at every IDU. The early detection of the outbreak and early implementation of needle exchange programmes likely played a crucial role in re-versing the IDU outbreak.

HealthMap: A cluster randomised trial of interactive health plans and self-management support to prevent coronary heart disease in people with HIV

Background The leading causes of morbidity and mortality for people in high-income countries living with HIV are now non-AIDS malignancies, cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable diseases associated with ageing. This protocol describes the trial of HealthMap, a model of care for people with HIV (PWHIV) that includes use of an interactive shared health record and self-management support. The aims of the HealthMap trial are to evaluate engagement of PWHIV and healthcare providers with the model, and its effectiveness for reducing coronary heart disease risk, enhancing self-management, and improving mental health and quality of life of PWHIV. Methods/Design The study is a two-arm cluster randomised trial involving HIV clinical sites in several states in Australia. Doctors will be randomised to the HealthMap model (immediate arm) or to proceed with usual care (deferred arm). People with HIV whose doctors are randomised to the immediate arm receive 1) new opportunities to discuss their health status and goals with their HIV doctor using a HealthMap shared health record; 2) access to their own health record from home; 3) access to health coaching delivered by telephone and online; and 4) access to a peer moderated online group chat programme. Data will be collected from participating PWHIV (n = 710) at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months and from participating doctors (n = 60) at baseline and 12 months. The control arm will be offered the HealthMap intervention at the end of the trial. The primary study outcomes, measured at 12 months, are 1) 10-year risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease death as estimated by a Framingham Heart Study risk equation; and 2) Positive and Active Engagement in Life Scale from the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ). Discussion The study will determine the viability and utility of a novel technology-supported model of care for maintaining the health and wellbeing of people with HIV. If shown to be effective, the HealthMap model may provide a generalisable, scalable and sustainable system for supporting the care needs of people with HIV, addressing issues of equity of access. Trial registration Universal Trial Number (UTN) U111111506489; ClinicalTrial.gov Id NCT02178930 submitted 29 June 2014

Fertility in Namibia : Changes in fertility levels in North-Central Namibia 1960-2001, including an assessment of the impact of HIV

The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility in North-Central Namibia, former Ovamboland, from 1960 to 2001. Special attention was given to the onset of fertility decline and to the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility. An additional aim was to introduce parish registers as a source of data for fertility research in Africa. Data used consisted of parish registers from Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1991 and 2001 Population and Housing Censuses, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys, and the HIV sentinel surveillances of 1992-2004. Both period and cohort fertility were analysed. The P/F ratio method was used when analysing census data. The impact of HIV infection on fertility was estimated indirectly by comparing the fertility histories of women who died at an age of less than 50 years with the fertility of other women. The impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility was assessed both among infected women and in the general population. Fertility in the study population began to decline in 1980. The decline was rapid during the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s at the end of war of independence and then continued to decline until the end of the study period. According to parish registers, total fertility was 6.4 in the 1960s and 6.5 in the 1970s, and declined to 5.1 in the 1980s and 4.2 in the 1990s. Adjustment of these total fertility rates to correspond to levels of fertility based on data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses resulted in total fertility declining from 7.6 in 1960-79 to 6.0 in 1980-89, and to 4.9 in 1990-99. The decline was associated with increased age at first marriage, declining marital fertility and increasing premarital fertility. Fertility among adolescents increased, whereas the fertility of women in all other age groups declined. During the 1980s, the war of independence contributed to declining fertility through spousal separation and delayed marriages. Contraception has been employed in the study region since the 1980s, but in the early 1990s, use of contraceptives was still so limited that fertility was higher in North-Central Namibia than in other regions of the country. In the 1990s, fertility decline was largely a result of the increased prevalence of contraception. HIV prevalence among pregnant women increased from 4% in 1992 to 25% in 2001. In 2001, total fertility among HIV-infected women (3.7) was lower than that among other women (4.8), resulting in total fertility of 4.4 among the general population in 2001. The HIV epidemic explained more than a quarter of the decline in total fertility at population level during most of the 1990s. The HIV epidemic also reduced the number of children born by reducing the number of potential mothers. In the future, HIV will have an extensive influence on both the size and age structure of the Namibian population. Although HIV influences demographic development through both fertility and mortality, the effect through changes in fertility will be smaller than the effect through mortality. In the study region, as in some other regions of southern Africa, a new type of demographic transition is under way, one in which population growth stagnates or even reverses because of the combined effects of declining fertility and increasing mortality, both of which are consequences of the HIV pandemic.

Death, Ancestors, and HIV/AIDS among the Akan of Ghana

This is a study of crises caused by HIV/AIDS among the Akan of Ghana. It creates more awareness about the epidemic and has indicated other possible paths for campaign strategies. The pandemic has many devastating consequences; yet new infections are recorded daily despite campaigns against the disease. The search for therapy often sees the use of multiple outlets, which expresses Ghana's pluralistic medical system based on Kleinman's sector analytical model involving Western medicine, self-therapy, and folk healing. But it also leaves individuals and kin members in financial quandary. The fieldwork for this study is mainly through participant observation lasting 13 months (February 2003 to March 2004) among the Akan; in addition, some archival materials have been used. The Akan people live in the coastal south and forest zone of Ghana. Every Akan village or town is made up of corporate lineages, and social organisation is based on matrilineal descent. The society is holistic because the matrilineages seek the welfare of all their members. Meyer Fortes, R. S. Rattray and others on the Akan noticed this encompassing nature in the lineage organisation; but they did not make it salient (or failed to notice it) during illness, efforts for healing, and the care of the sick member. HIV/AIDS is an illness which shows the encompassing nature of the Akan matrilineage. It also reveals many contradictions in the group, viz. stigmatisation, abandonment, and attitudes that do not express altruism in a group expected to be closely-knit based on members' belief that they are of the 'same blood'. The crises have been analyzed in the total social system because the disease creates breaches at various levels of social interaction. An analysis of crises in a group is not far-fetched; Victor Turner has shown the way among the Ndembu and has revealed the contraditions in the seemingly uneventful life in the group. This study has identified that in dealing with HIV/AIDS patients and crises about the disease we are dealing with 'holistic' patients. Their cases produce many changes in the matrilineal structure--many orphans are being created and the care of patients is increasingly falling on the elderly. HIV/AIDS also challenges Akan cosmology because, for example, an AIDS death in local notions is a 'bad' demise which fails to produce ancestors who reproduce the society through reincarnation. Campaigns could emphasize this notion. The study begins with a description of the holistic nature of Akan matriliny, and the patients have been described as 'holistic' because their crises affect other people in the holistic society. Chapter 2 discusses the importance of ancestors as the starting points for social order who are constantly revered (in rites invoving the chief, Chapter 4). Chapter 3 focuses on funerals as an important social performance for the welfare of the dead and the living. Chapter 5 concentrates on HIV/AIDS as an illness threat marked by dominant discourses such as poverty, sexuality, migration, and condom use. Chapter 6 analyzes the attempts for therapy, and traditional healers' claims to have a cure. The efforts for therapy continues with spiritual church healing in Chapter 7, and chapter 8 is devoted to care of the patients and its inherent crises. Chapter 9 analyzes the effects of HIV/AIDS afflictions and AIDS deaths on the matrilineal group and in society. The study ends with a short part, devoted to Recommendations based on the findings in this investigation.

Stereochemical analysis of the antigenic tip of the V3 loop peptide of HIV-1 gp120

A novel multiple turn conformation has been observed for a segment GPGRAFY in the crystal structure of a complex of HIV-1 gp120 V3 loop peptide with the Fab fragment of a neutralizing antibody [Ghiara ct al. (1994) Science 264, 82-85]. A structural motif has been defined for the peptide segment, employing idealized backbone conformations characterized by ranges of virtual C-alpha torsion angles and bond angles. A search of 122 high-resolution protein crystal structures has permitted identification of 24 examples of similar structural motifs. Two major conformational families have been identified, which differ primarily in the conformation at residue 3. The observed conformation at residue 3 in family 1 is left-handed helical (alpha(L)) and that in family 2 is right-handed helical (alpha(R)). Of the 10 examples in family 1, 9 examples have Gly residues at position 3. Of the 12 examples in family 2, 7 examples have Asn/Asp at position 3. Computer modeling of the V3 loop tip sequence using the two backbone conformational families as starting points leads to minimum-energy conformations in which antigenically important side-chains occupy similar spatial arrangements. This stereochemical analysis of the V3 loop tip sequence suggests a rational basis for the design of synthetic analog peptides for use as viral antagonists or synthetic antigens. (C) Munksgaard 1995.

Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

Taking Multiple Infections of Cells and Recombination into Account Leads to Small Within-Host Effective-Population-Size Estimates of HIV-1

Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, N-e, are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate N-e similar to 10(2)-10(4), smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (similar to 10(5)), implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates N-e>10(5), suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate N-e similar to 10(3)-10(4), implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that N-e and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of N-e>10(5) reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with N-e similar to 10(3)-10(4) may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence.