Economic crises in England, 1270-1520: a statistical approach

The chapter examines how far medieval economic crises can be identified by analysing the residuals from a simultaneous equation model of the medieval English economy. High inflation, falls in gross domestic product and large intermittent changes in wage rates are all considered as potential indicators of crisis. Potential causal factors include bad harvests, wars and political instability. The chapter suggests that crises arose when a combination of different problems overwhelmed the capacity of government to address them. It may therefore be a mistake to look for a single cause of any crisis. The coincidence of separate problems is a more plausible explanation of many crises.

Bayesian density estimation using Skew Student-t-Normal mixtures

We present a Bayesian approach for modeling heterogeneous data and estimate multimodal densities using mixtures of Skew Student-t-Normal distributions [Gomez, H.W., Venegas, O., Bolfarine, H., 2007. Skew-symmetric distributions generated by the distribution function of the normal distribution. Environmetrics 18, 395-407]. A stochastic representation that is useful for implementing a MCMC-type algorithm and results about existence of posterior moments are obtained. Marginal likelihood approximations are obtained, in order to compare mixture models with different number of component densities. Data sets concerning the Gross Domestic Product per capita (Human Development Report) and body mass index (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), previously studied in the related literature, are analyzed. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of foreign direct investment and openness on Vietnamese economy

This thesis examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on Vietnamese economy based on Partial Adjustment Model and time series data from 1976 to 2004. FDI is shown to have not only short run but also long run effect on gross domestic product (GDP) of Vietnam. However, elasticity of GDP with respect to FDI is small and it will take many years to fully manifest itself. The impact of trade openness on GDP has also been examined and it is shown to be stronger than that of FDI. The paper offers a number of explanations and discusses briefly suggestions in order to increase the contribution of FDI to Vietnam’s economic development.

The Relationship between Transport Infrastructure and EconomicGrowth: An Empirical Analysis Comparing Developing and DevelopedCountries

Gross domestic product (GDP) is generally considered as the most important index and comprehensive measure of the size of economy. This paper investigates empirically the relationship between transport infrastructure (focus on highways) and GDP growth based on a production function approach. The physical stocks of transport infrastructure were used instead of monetary data to measure public capital together with several other variables (labor and private capital) that were hypothesized to affect economic growth. Then we explore a number of subsequent studies that use panel data covering the period between 1992 and 2004. An investigation was done to compare developed countries and developing countries. Results indicate that physical units are positively and significantly related to economic growth. Furthermore there was an interesting finding that the output elasticity with respect to physical units for developed countries is higher than developing countries.

Entry, re-location and growth in the Swedish wholesale trade industry

Wholesale trade has an intermediate position between manufacturing and retail in the distributional channel. In modern economies, consumers buy few, if any, products directly from manufacture or producer. Instead, it is a wholesaler, who is in direct contact with producers, buying goods in larger quantities and selling them in smaller quantities to retailers. Traditionally, the main function of a wholesaler has been to push goods along the distributional channel from producer to retailer, or other nonend user. However, the function of wholesalers usually goes beyond the process of the physical distribution of goods. Wholesalers also arrange storage, perform market analyses, promote trade or provide technical support to consumers (Riemers 1998). The existence of wholesalers (and other intermediaries) in the distributional channel is based on the effective and efficient performance of distribution services, that are needed by producers and other members of the supply chain. Producers usually do not enjoy the economies of scale that they have in production, when it comes to providing distributional services (Rosenbloom 2007) and this creates a space for wholesalers or other intermediaries. Even though recent developments in the distributional channel indicate that traditional wholesaling activities now also compete with other supply chain organizations, wholesaling still remains an important activity in many economies (Quinn and Sparks, 2007). In 2010, the Swedish wholesale trade sector consisted of approximately 46.000 firms and generated an annual turnover of 1 300 billion SEK (Företagsstatistiken, Statistics Sweden). In terms of turnover, wholesaling accounts for 20% of the gross domestic product and is thereby the third largest industry. This is behind manufacturing and a composite group of firms in other sectors of the service industry but ahead of retailing. This indicates that the wholesale trade sector is an important part of the Swedish economy. The position of wholesaling is further reinforced when measuring productivity growth. Measured in terms of value added per employee, wholesaling experienced the largest productivity growth of all industries in the Swedish economy during the years 2000 through 2010. The fact that wholesale trade is one of the important parts of a modern economy, and the positive development of the Swedish wholesale trade sector in recent decades, leads to several questions related to industry dynamics. The three topics that will be examined in this thesis are firm entry, firm relocation and firm growth. The main question to be answered by this thesis is what factors influence new firm formation, firm relocation and firm growth in the Swedish wholesale trade sector?

An analysis of linkage between foreign direct investment and GDP per Capita in Pakistan : A time series analysis

This study aims to investigate the relation between foreign direct investment (FDI) and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Pakistan. The study is based on a basic Cobb-Douglas production function. Population over age 15 to 64 is used as a proxy for labor in the investigation. The other variables used are gross capital formation, technological gap and a dummy variable measuring among other things political stability. We find positive correlation between GDP per capita in Pakistan and two variables, FDI and population over age 15 to 64. The GDP gap (gap between GDP of USA and GDP of Pakistan) is negatively correlated with GDP per capita as expected. Political instability, economic crisis, wars and polarization in the society have no significant impact on GDP per capita in the long run.

Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

The Strategic outsourcing Decision of IT and eCommerce: The Case of Small Businesses in New Zealand

In New Zealand, small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a very important role in the economy by their contribution to both employment and gross domestic product. Addressing issues pertinent to SMEs is of paramount importance in driving this sector forward. Information Technology (IT) emerges as one main enabler for SMEs in automating their operations, seeking new opportunities and enhancing their strategic business positioning in local and international markets. However, the inability of SMEs to handle the dynamic nature of IT due to problems inherent in their size, structure and resources, makes it difficult for them to take appropriate decisions to benefit from the IT technologies. The advent of eCommerce (EC) has only compounded this problem. One way out of this complex situation is to outsource the IT and EC technology requirements by the SMEs. This study endeavours to identify the pattern of IT and EC outsourcing issues of SMEs within New Zealand. This research attempts to identify the main driver for IT/EC outsourcing in SMEs as well as to explore the problems of IT outsourcing and makes suggestions for further research in this crucial sector.

Sustainable development and environmental accounting: the challenge to the economics and accounting profession

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of natural resources accounting in sustainable development. Natural resource accounting is important because the welfare of a nation measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) has several weaknesses. Design/methodology/approach – This paper achieves this objective by identifying the present status, the constraints and the challenges for the economics and accounting professions. Findings – The main weakness of GDP as a measure of development is that it does not take into account damages to environmental resources. However, the improvement of the concept to include environmental resource use is made difficult because of the difficulties of measuring environmental damage. The challenge to the economics and accounting profession is to ensure interdisciplinary collaboration, development of a framework to explicitly include the environment, development of credible valuation procedures for the environment, and inclusion of the various ethical positions advanced by various groups on the value of the environment. Practical implications – Some headway has been made on these issues during the last decade but a major challenge still lies ahead in further improving these approaches so that sustainable development becomes an achievable goal. Originality/value – This paper brings together diverse views and fusing them together providing a future path for research in environmental accounting to achieve sustainable development.

Measuring social welfare: application of social choice theory

This paper questions conventional approaches to measuring social welfare through gross domestic product (GDP). This paper is divided into two parts. The first part adopts a systems approach to development and incorporates this into the theory of social choice. The second part operationalises this approach through the development of a cost-benefit adjusted gross domestic product (CBAGDP) social welfare function, which overcomes certain limitations of this traditional measure of development. The CBAGDP is then used to estimate welfare in Thailand. This approach is justified because of its normative values and its plausible results.

IT and ecommerce outsourcing in small to medium-size enterprises in New Zealand : an exploratory research

In New Zealand, small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a very important role in the economy by their contribution to both employment and also to gross domestic product. Addressing issues pertinent to SMEs is of paramount importance in driving this sector forward. Information Technology (IT) emerges as one main enabler for SMEs in automating their operations, seeking new opportunities and enhancing their strategic business positioning in local and international markets. However, the dynamic nature of IT and inability of SMEs, due to problems inherent in their size and structure, makes it difficult for them to take appropriate decisions to benefit from the IT technologies. The advent of eCommerce (EC) has only compounded this problem. One way out of this complex situation is to outsource the IT and EC technology requirements by the SMEs. This study endeavours to identify the pattern of IT and EC outsourcing issues of SMEs within New Zealand. It reveals that the main driver for IT outsourcing is access to expertise and used mainly for maintenance purposes only. The study also identifies the problems in IT outsourcing and makes suggestions for further research in this crucial sector.

A comparative study on economic factors of construction industries in Australia and China

The construction sector produces the facilities needed for a large majority of the production of goods and services, in which a sizeable proportion of Gross Domestic Product is generated. Recent trends in the globalisation of construction markets indicate that many countries consider construction industry competitiveness as crucial, and are working to increase construction productivity, in particular where the construction industries play an important role in their economic development. This paper first points out the research importance in international construction. Based on economic analyses of construction industries, a study is then carried out to focus on the economic sizes and benefits of the Chinese construction industry and to compare them with the Australian construction industry. Results derived from such an international construction comparison will assist in the Australian construction communities understanding the construction markets and industries in China and will benefit in international construction participation and cooperation.

Privatization and economic growth in Australia: the shorthand of a long process

The impact of privatization on economic growth has been little investigated relative to disaggregated approaches. A growth accounting framework is used here to investigate the impact of privatization on growth for the  Australian economy. The contribution of public capital to the private sector and whether the growth process is endogenous or Solow is evaluated. Separate measures of public and private capital are computed in order to estimate their impacts with labour on Australian gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the period 1960 to 2003. A simple growth rates version is found preferred by stationarity and other tests. Labour growth appears to strongly positively influence the growth of GDP. In contrast, public capital growth has no statistically significant effect on GDP growth, or on private capital productivity. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that the coefficients of the growth equation are the same before and during privatization.

Is the Genuine Progress Indicator really genuine? Considering well-being impacts of exports and imports

The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) is estimated as if nations operate within a closed economy. Therefore, in terms of coverage, the GPI is most analogous to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Indeed, within the relevant literature, these two indicators are most often contrasted. However, consideration should be given to adapting the GPI, so it has more in common with Gross National Income (GNI). As with GDP, the GPI is concerned only with a particular physical location. Yet, it may be more effective if the GPI was freed from these physical boundaries in a similar manner to GNI. The GPI should be concerned more with the 'ownership' of the costs and benefits associated with economic growth than with the 'location' of those costs and benefits. Those that derive the most benefit from exploitation of the environment are often physically removed from the location of that damage. The GPI does not consider the net consumers of the negative externalities of environmental costs, merely the producers. Currently, however, the structure of the GPI allows a nation to enjoy, without penalty, the benefits of importing goods from countries which bear a disproportionately large cost of environmental degradation. This results in an overstatement of the real progress experienced by the county importing 'dirty goods'. This paper will investigate how certain GPI adjustments may be adapted to overcome this present shortcoming. However, the purpose of this paper is not only to empirically implement this new approach, but also to stimulate debate as to its potential merit.

Comparing Australias genuine progress to its economic growth performance

Australia has recorded consistently strong levels of economic growth in recent times. Under conventional considerations, the well-being experienced by Australians would also be considered to have increased in equal terms over this period. This is because aggregate standard national accounts have from their inception been assigned as proxy measures of well-being both within the economic literature and public debate. However, this approach fails to consider a number of important economic costs and non-welfaristic impacts on well-being associated with a growing economy. As a result, figures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita over-estimate well-being. It is possible to adjust these estimates to overcome these limitations. Within this paper, the sustainable well-being of Australia will be reviewed by estimating a Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) for the period 1986–2003. Policy implications following from this new analysis will also be discussed.