Tidskrift för konstvetenskap.

Editors: R. Josephson, E. Wettergren.

Lodbrokar-Quida, Carmen Gothicam, famam regis Ragnari Lodrochi celebrans.

Mode of access: Internet.

Bunte Steine. Eine Festgeschenk.

Added t.-p., engraved with vignette.

Zur Beleuchtung der ethnischen Verschiebung des schwedischen Volksstammes in der modernen Zeit.

Thesis (doctoral)--Friedrich-Alexanders-Universitat zu Erlangen.

Towards a framework for combining stochastic and deterministic descriptions of nonstationary financial time series

We present in this paper ideas to tackle the problem of analysing and forecasting nonstationary time series within the financial domain. Accepting the stochastic nature of the underlying data generator we assume that the evolution of the generator's parameters is restricted on a deterministic manifold. Therefore we propose methods for determining the characteristics of the time-localised distribution. Starting with the assumption of a static normal distribution we refine this hypothesis according to the empirical results obtained with the methods anc conclude with the indication of a dynamic non-Gaussian behaviour with varying dependency for the time series under consideration.

Modelling nonlinear stochastic dynamics in financial time series

For analysing financial time series two main opposing viewpoints exist, either capital markets are completely stochastic and therefore prices follow a random walk, or they are deterministic and consequently predictable. For each of these views a great variety of tools exist with which it can be tried to confirm the hypotheses. Unfortunately, these methods are not well suited for dealing with data characterised in part by both paradigms. This thesis investigates these two approaches in order to model the behaviour of financial time series. In the deterministic framework methods are used to characterise the dimensionality of embedded financial data. The stochastic approach includes here an estimation of the unconditioned and conditional return distributions using parametric, non- and semi-parametric density estimation techniques. Finally, it will be shown how elements from these two approaches could be combined to achieve a more realistic model for financial time series.

Politisations différentielles et acculturations mutuelles en contexte autoritaire : ethnographie d'une inversion du cens électoral

Français L'observation ethnographique des politisations différentielles pendant une campagne électorale en contexte autoritaire changeant est un analyseur privilégié de plusieurs processus. Sur un plan empirique, elle donne à voir les modalités diversifiées d'appropriation du moment électoral par les acteurs, les tentatives d'ajustement d'une partie de la gauche marocaine à la perte de son électorat de granit et aux transformations du marché électoral, mais également un mouvement de fond : celui de l'inversion ponctuelle du principe censitaire, en lien avec la désertion des urnes par les plus dotés culturellement et matériellement et avec la mutation du vote urbain populaire. Sur un plan théorique, l'examen des tâtonnements en oeuvre - avant leur naturalisation - permet de poursuivre le dialogue entre les travaux sur le clientélisme politique et sur la politisation, au croisement des approches socio-historiques et de sociologie politique, en contextes autoritaires et démocratiques. Il montre l'intérêt de dépasser les oppositions entre conceptions restrictives et extensives de la politisation, pour se saisir processuellement et in situ des politisations différentielles des acteurs, des registres et des pratiques. English Differential Forms of Politicization and Mutual Acculturation in an Authoritarian ContextThe ethnographic observation of differential forms of politicization during an electoral campaign in a changing authoritarian context is an ideal means of analyzing a number of processes. Empirically, it enables us to observe the actors' diverse ways of appropriating the electoral moment, a Moroccan leftist party's attempts to adjust to the loss of its electoral base and the transformations of the electoral market. It also enables us to observe a one-time reversal of the symbolic voting restrictions, in correlation with the desertion of the polls by the those best equipped to participate, both culturally and materially, and with the transformation of the urban popular vote. In theoretical terms, examination of such ongoing processes - before their stabilization - allows us to follow the interplay between the work on political clientelism and on politicization, at the intersection of sociohistorical and political sociological approaches, in authoritarian and democratic contexts. It demonstrates the value of moving beyond the opposition between restrictive and extensive conceptions of politicization, to grasp the process in situ of differential forms of the politicization of actors, registers and practices.