Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness?

The aim of this study was, within a sensitivity analysis framework, to determine if additional model complexity gives a better capability to model the hydrology and nitrogen dynamics of a small Mediterranean forested catchment or if the additional parameters cause over-fitting. Three nitrogen-models of varying hydrological complexity were considered. For each model, general sensitivity analysis (GSA) and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) were applied, each based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The results highlighted the most complex structure as the most appropriate, providing the best representation of the non-linear patterns observed in the flow and streamwater nitrate concentrations between 1999 and 2002. Its 5% and 95% GLUE bounds, obtained considering a multi-objective approach, provide the narrowest band for streamwater nitrogen, which suggests increased model robustness, though all models exhibit periods of inconsistent good and poor fits between simulated outcomes and observed data. The results confirm the importance of the riparian zone in controlling the short-term (daily) streamwater nitrogen dynamics in this catchment but not the overall flux of nitrogen from the catchment. It was also shown that as the complexity of a hydrological model increases over-parameterisation occurs, but the converse is true for a water quality model where additional process representation leads to additional acceptable model simulations. Water quality data help constrain the hydrological representation in process-based models. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry.

Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system

A global river routing scheme coupled to the ECMWF land surface model is implemented and tested within the framework of the Global Soil Wetness Project II, to evaluate the feasibility of modelling global river runoff at a daily time scale. The exercise is designed to provide benchmark river runoff predictions needed to verify the land surface model. Ten years of daily runoff produced by the HTESSEL land surface scheme is input into the TRIP2 river routing scheme in order to generate daily river runoff. These are then compared to river runoff observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in order to evaluate the potential and the limitations. A notable source of inaccuracy is bias between observed and modelled discharges which is not primarily due to the modelling system but instead of to the forcing and quality of observations and seems uncorrelated to the river catchment size. A global sensitivity analysis and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) uncertainty analysis are applied to the global routing model. The ground water delay parameter is identified as being the most sensitive calibration parameter. Significant uncertainties are found in results, and those due to parameterisation of the routing model are quantified. The difficulty involved in parameterising global river discharge models is discussed. Detailed river runoff simulations are shown for the river Danube, which match well observed river runoff in upstream river transects. Results show that although there are errors in runoff predictions, model results are encouraging and certainly indicative of useful runoff predictions, particularly for the purpose of verifying the land surface scheme hydrologicly. Potential of this modelling system on future applications such as river runoff forecasting and climate impact studies is highlighted. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.

Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: dynamic surface storage and channel roughness

Flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression storage, and roughness coefficient in channels. In the final (a posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albujón watershed; 556 km 2 ), which showed a complex multi-peak response. First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly different behavior.

Coding behavioural data for cladistic analysis: using dynamic homology without parsimony

Many of the controversies around the concept of homology rest on the subjectivity inherent to primary homology propositions. Dynamic homology partially solves this problem, but there has been up to now scant application of it outside of the molecular domain. This is probably because morphological and behavioural characters are rich in properties, connections and qualities, so that there is less space for conflicting character delimitations. Here we present a new method for the direct optimization of behavioural data, a method that relies on the richness of this database to delimit the characters, and on dynamic procedures to establish character state identity. We use between-species congruence in the data matrix and topological stability to choose the best cladogram. We test the methodology using sequences of predatory behaviour in a group of spiders that evolved the highly modified predatory technique of spitting glue onto prey. The cladogram recovered is fully compatible with previous analyses in the literature, and thus the method seems consistent. Besides the advantage of enhanced objectivity in character proposition, the new procedure allows the use of complex, context-dependent behavioural characters in an evolutionary framework, an important step towards the practical integration of the evolutionary and ecological perspectives on diversity. (C) The Willi Hennig Society 2010.

Information warfare: using the viable system model as a framework to attack organisations

Information is the glue in any organization. It is needed for policy, decision-making, control, and co-ordination. If an organisation's information systems are disrupted or destroyed, then damage to the whole inevitably follows. This paper uses a proven systemic, analytic framework the Viable System Model (VSM) - in a functionalist mode, to analyse the vulnerabilities of an organisation's information resources to this form of aggression. It examines the tactics available, and where they can be used to effectively attack an organisation.

What is a presentational media regime? The contemporary breakdown in systems of representation

Foundational to both the operation and legitimation of our traditional media is the idea of representation: in some sense the images of television, the sounds of radio, the narratives of film, and the various public personalities stand in or in place of ourselves. Likewise our contemporary political system function as an elaborate representational system, where regions, "seats", electorates, the nation, and the nationstate are represented by individuals, parties and symbols. Although, there are differences between and among modern nation-states as clearly different political and cultural agendas are at play, the interplay of contemporary media, culture and politics has produced what can be called a 'representational regime' that more or less operates globally, albeit fragmented into national and regional groupings.

This paper explores the initial stages in the breakdown of this system of representation that has allowed a certain organization of culture and politics to expand and develop over the last two centuries. It acknowledges that central to this regime is something Nick Couldry has identified as "the myth of the mediated centre" (Couldry, 2003). What the paper argues, and therefore differs from Couldry's conclusion, is that there are cracks in the glue that holds the system together and they are emerging in the uses of new media. Through an exploration of presentational media - that is, media that is more involved with the presentation of the self for public/private and networked consumption than traditional media's effort to embody their audience in its narratives - the paper reaches for conclusions that identify a more elaborate legitimation crisis looming in our political and cultural worlds.

Public research commercialisation, entrepreneurship and new technology based firms : an integrated model

Entrepreneurship is the engine of innovation. The accumulated tacit knowledge and culture of the entrepreneur are the resources essential to create wealth from research commercialisation leading to technological innovation and the creation of New Technology Based Firms (NTBFs). The authors explore, in definitional terms, discovery of entrepreneurial opportunity and entrepreneurial capacity as the essential elements in the interaction between all types of tacit knowledge (technological, managerial, risk management, financial, etc.). These both derive from and affect interactions between the institutions (sets of rules), organisational culture and external business environment. They also interact with the entrepreneur’s own background and personality. This leads then to a wider analysis of the importance of such tacit knowledge as the glue bringing together effective mechanisms for wealth creation out of research commercialisation.

The influence of protective and risk factors in individual, peer and school domains on Thai adolescents' alcohol and illicit drug use: a survey

This study investigates risk and protective factors for substance abuse in a sample of 1778 students attending technical colleges in Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima provinces of Thailand using a self-report questionnaire modified from the Communities That Care youth survey. Low school commitment was strongly associated with illicit drug use, with adjusted odds ratios ranging from 2.84 (glue sniffing) to 10.06 (ecstasy). Having friends using drugs, and friends with delinquent behaviors increased the risk of using alcohol and illegal drugs, with adjusted odds ratios of 6.84 and 6.72 respectively for marijuana use. For protective factors, approximately 40-60% of students with high levels of moral belief, participation in religious activities, and social skills were less likely to use alcohol. It is concluded that peer influence is a significant contributor to Thai adolescents' participation in substance abuse and that engaging in religiosity may assist adolescents to internalize negative aspects of harmful drugs into positive perceptions and encourage them to avoid alcohol and illegal drugs.

Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers

A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of simulated grey discharges includes an assigned percentage of observed discharge values and is at the same time as narrow as possible. The approach is applied to a real case study highlighting that a rigorous application of the procedure for direct simulation through the rainfall-runoff model with grey parameters involves long computational times. However, these times can be significantly reduced using a simplified computing procedure with minimal approximations in the quantification of the grey numbers representing the simulated discharges. Relying on this simplified procedure, the conceptual rainfall-runoff grey model is thus calibrated and the uncertainty bands obtained both downstream of the calibration process and downstream of the validation process are compared with those obtained by using a well-established approach, like the GLUE approach, for characterizing uncertainty. The results of the comparison show that the proposed approach may represent a valid tool for characterizing the global uncertainty associable with the output of a rainfall-runoff simulation model.

Uso da cola de fibrina na anastomose nervosa : estudo comparativo experimental, em ratos

A procura de um método que permita um melhor resultado na anastomose de um nervo completamente seccionado é antiga. Há muitos anos a técnica, dita convencional, para aproximação dos cotos afastados do nervo lesado, é realizada com pontos de fios microcirúrgicos. Mais recentemente, a utilização da cola de fibrina tem permitido a adesão de tecidos, como pele, fáscia e outras estruturas anatômicas. O uso da cola de fibrina, na aproximação das extremidades nervosas, tem sido propagada pela indústria como um fato incontestável. No entanto, somente com a realização de estudos comparativos clínicos e laboratoriais tornou-se possível comparar a eficácia da cola de fibrina como agente de reconstituição em lesões de nervos periféricos. Com o objetivo de comprovar essa afirmação foi realizado um trabalho através de uma mensuração nas bainhas de mielina de cotos regenerados de nervos entre diferentes tipos de anastomose nervosas em nervo isquiático de ratos da raça Wistar. Com esse mesmo escopo, foi mensurado o número de axônios em regeneração após o uso dessa cola. Foi utilizada uma amostra de 35 ratos divididos em 03 grupos (A, B e C). No grupo A, 25 ratos foram submetidos à cirurgia com o uso da cola de fibrina para a anastomose nervosa. No grupo B, 05 ratos foram submetidos ao mesmo procedimento; entretanto, ao reparo nervoso acrescentou-se a utilização de dois pontos opostos de mononylon 9-0, usando-se cola de fibrina no seu interior. No terceiro grupo (C), 05 ratos foram submetidos a neurorrafia com 6 a 8 pontos de mononylon 9-0 sem auxílio da cola de fibrina (anastomose nervosa convencional). Os animais foram submetidos a um novo procedimento após 90 dias, quando o nervo isquiático tratado foi retirado e encaminhado para o estudo. Após esse procedimento, os animais foram sacrificados. Cabe esclarecer que os espécimens foram submetidas a uma preparação histológica, sendo avaliados. Para tanto, foi realizada uma mensuração da espessura média da bainha de mielina das fibras regeneradas. Também foi realizada uma medição do número de axônios regenerados em um milímetro quadrado. Com base nesses achados, foram comparados os resultados.

International civil society actors in Genetically Modificied Organisms as a field of struggle: a neo-gramscian study in Brazil and the United Kingdom

Since the international financial and food crisis that started in 2008, strong emphasis has been made on the importance of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) (or “transgenics”) under the claim that they could contribute to increase food productivity at a global level, as the world population is predicted to reach 9.1 billion in the year 2050 and food demand is predicted to increase by as much as 50% by 2030. GMOs are now at the forefront of the debates and struggles of different actors. Within civil society actors, it is possible to observe multiple, and sometime, conflicting roles. The role of international social movements and international NGOs in the GMO field of struggle is increasingly relevant. However, while many of these international civil society actors oppose this type of technological developments (alleging, for instance, environmental, health and even social harms), others have been reportedly cooperating with multinational corporations, retailers, and the biotechnology industry to promote GMOs. In this thesis research, I focus on analysing the role of “international civil society” in the GMO field of struggle by asking: “what are the organizing strategies of international civil society actors, such as NGOs and social movements, in GMO governance as a field of struggle?” To do so, I adopt a neo-Gramscian discourse approach based on the studies of Laclau and Mouffe. This theoretical approach affirms that in a particular hegemonic regime there are contingent alliances and forces that overpass the spheres of the state and the economy, while civil society actors can be seen as a “glue��� to the way hegemony functions. Civil society is then the site where hegemony is consented, reproduced, sustained, channelled, but also where counter-hegemonic and emancipatory forces can emerge. Considering the importance of civil society actors in the construction of hegemony, I also discuss some important theories around them. The research combines, on the one hand, 36 in-depth interviews with a range of key civil society actors and scientists representing the GMO field of struggle in Brazil (19) and the UK (17), and, on the other hand, direct observations of two events: Rio+20 in Rio de Janeiro in 2012, and the first March Against Monsanto in London in 2013. A brief overview of the GMO field of struggle, from its beginning and especially focusing in the 1990s when the process of hegemonic formation became clearer, serves as the basis to map who are the main actors in this field, how resource mobilization works, how political opportunities (“historical contingencies”) are discovered and exploited, which are the main discourses (“science” and “sustainability” - articulated by “biodiversity preservation”, “food security” and “ecological agriculture”) articulated among the actors to construct a collective identity in order to attract new potential allies around “GMOs” (“nodal point”), and which are the institutions and international regulations within these processes that enable hegemony to emerge in meaningful and durable hegemonic links. This mapping indicates that that the main strategies applied by the international civil society actors are influenced by two central historical contingencies in the GMO field of struggle: 1) First Multi-stakeholder Historical Contingency; and 2) “Supposed” Hegemony Stability. These two types of historical contingency in the GMO field of struggle encompass deeper hegemonic articulations and, because of that, they induce international civil society actors to rethink the way they articulate and position themselves within the field. Therefore, depending on one of those moments, they will apply one specific strategy of discourse articulation, such as: introducing a new discourse in hegemony articulation to capture the attention of the public and of institutions; endorsing new plural demands; increasing collective visibility; facilitating material articulations; sharing a common enemy identity; or spreading new ideological elements among the actors in the field of struggle.

Estilo de vida e vulnerabilidade social dos adolescentes no Bairro de Felipe Camarão, Natal/RN, 2005

Este estudo descreve o estilo de vida e vulnerabilidade dos adolescentes do bairro Felipe Camarão em Natal-RN, a fim de compreender seus comportamentos, conforme vulnerabilidades identificadas. Foram aplicados 145 questionários semi-estruturados entre os adolescentes de 12 a 18 anos, no período de janeiro, a abril de 2005. O estilo de vida descrito, conforme os dados colhidos, informa que 92,4% sabem da importância de se alimentar bem, 86,9% têm sono preservado; 76,5% têm boa relação com seus pais. Porém, 86,9% afirmaram não haver área de lazer/diversão no bairro, enquanto os 31,0% não responderam sobre higiene corporal; 41,4% consomem drogas lícitas (maioria álcool), enquanto 37,9%, as ilícitas (maioria cola); 51,7% dizem que não conversam sobre sexo, enquanto 30,3% conversam com suas mães; 38,0% estão sexualmente ativos, iniciados entre 13 a 16 anos. Os comportamentos de alguns adolescentes estudados indicam um estilo de vida saudável, enquanto outros demonstram justamente o contrário, através de práticas como: pouca participação no lazer, por falta de opção; consumo de drogas lícitas e ilícitas; a falta de diálogo com os pais sobre sexo; relacionamento sexual precoce, somados às condições econômicas e sociais desfavorecidas que os expõem à adoção de um estilo de vida que implica em vulnerabilidade

Resíduos de calda sulfocálcica sobre a eficiência de acaricidas no controle de Brevipalpus phoenicis

O objetivo do trabalho foi verificar a influência dos resíduos de calda sulfocálcica sobre a eficiência de acaricidas empregados no controle de Brevipalpus phoenicis. Inicialmente, o experimento foi instalado em um pomar de citros, em que foram selecionadas 10 plantas que continham frutos com verrugose. Realizou-se a aplicação de calda sulfocálcica (8g i.a. L-1 de água) em cinco plantas e as outras cinco plantas permaneceram sem aplicação de produto fitossanitário. Protegeram-se, com copos de plástico transparente de 500mL, 64 frutos nas plantas tratadas com calda e 64 frutos nas plantas não-tratadas, totalizando 128 frutos protegidos. Decorridos 30 dias da aplicação, os frutos foram colhidos e levados para o laboratório. Estes frutos foram parcialmente parafinados, deixando-se em cada fruto uma arena de 2,5cm de diâmetro com verrugose e sem parafina, delimitada com cola entomológica. em seguida, procedeu-se à aplicação sobre os frutos em Torre de Potter dos seguintes acaricidas nas concentrações expressas em mg de ingrediente ativo por litro de água: propargite a 720mg, óxido de fenbutatina a 400mg, cyhexatin a 250mg, azocyclotin a 250mg, fenpyroximate a 50mg, dicofol a 960mg e dinocap a 738mg e a testemunha sem aplicação de acaricida. Após 1, 7 e 16 dias da aplicação, transferiram-se para cada fruto 10 ácaros B. phoenicis para avaliar a mortalidade. Constatou-se que os resíduos de calda sulfocálcica não prejudicaram a eficiência dos acaricidas avaliados no controle de B. phoenicis.

Toxicidade diferencial de produtos à base de abamectina ao ácaro Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes, 1939) (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) em citros

O ácaro Brevipalpus phoenicis é uma das principais pragas dos citros por ser vetor do Citrus Leprosis Virus (CiLV), agente causal da leprose, uma das mais graves doenças da citricultura. Objetivou-se avaliar o efeito tóxico de produtos à base de abamectina sobre o ácaro B. phoenicis. Foram realizados um experimento de ação direta e três de ação residual no Laboratório de Acarologia do Departamento de Proteção de Plantas (Fitossanidade) da FCAV - UNESP, Jaboticabal-SP. O delineamento adotado nos bioensaios foi o inteiramente casualizado, onde 10 tratamentos foram repetidos 7 vezes, sendo cada repetição composta por um fruto de laranja. Os tratamentos estudados (mL p.c./100 L de água) foram: Acaramik a 20; 30; 40 e 50 mL; Vertimec a 30 e 40 mL; Abamectin Nortox a 30 e 40 mL; Tricofol a 77 mL e uma testemunha sem aplicação. Utilizaram-se frutos com presença de verrugose, que foram lavados e parcialmente parafinados, deixando-se uma área sem parafina, que foi circundada com cola entomológica para contenção dos ácaros. Transferiram-se 20 ácaros adultos B. phoenicis para cada fruto. No bioensaio de ação direta, a transferência foi realizada antes das aplicações e, nos bioensaios de ação residual, aos 5; 10 e 15 dias após a aplicação dos produtos. A aplicação dos produtos sobre os frutos foi realizada em Torre de Potter. Os resultados obtidos nos bioensaios evidenciaram que os melhores tratamentos foram: Tricofol a 77 mL, Acaramik a 40 e 50 mL e Vertimec a 40 mL. de forma geral, os produtos testados podem ser utilizados no controle do ácaro B. phoenicis.

Efeito da adição de óleos ao acaricida cyhexatin sobre o ácaro Brevipalpus phoenicis e na retenção de calda por folhas de citros

A adição de óleos à calda de pulverização, muitas vezes, é utilizada a campo sem o adequado conhecimento sobre a absorção do produto fitossanitário pelo alvo, retenção de calda e até mesmo sobre a praga e a cultura. O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar o efeito da adição de óleos ao acaricida cyhexatin sobre o ácaro Brevipalpus phoenicis e na retenção de calda por folhas de citros. Avaliou-se a mortalidade de ácaros, utilizando-se de frutos de laranja com uma arena circundada com cola entomológica para confinar os ácaros. Adotou-se o delineamento inteiramente casualizado, em esquema fatorial, constituído pelos fatores: duas formulações de cyhexatin (WG e SC), dois tipos de óleo (mineral e vegetal) e duas concentrações dos óleos (0,5 e 1,0%), e mais dois tratamentos adicionais (acaricidas não adicionados de óleo) e uma testemunha sem aplicação. A aplicação dos produtos foi realizada sobre frutos de laranja até além do ponto de escorrimento. Logo após a aplicação, transferiram-se 10 ácaros B. phoenicis para cada fruto.A contagem dos ácaros vivos, mortos e retidos na barreira adesiva foi realizada um dia após a aplicação. Para a determinação da quantidade de calda retida, utilizaram-se folhas de laranjeira, que foram pulverizadas até além do ponto de escorrimento, adotando-se os mesmos tratamentos e o delineamento estatístico mencionados para a avaliação da mortalidade de ácaros, com exceção da testemunha sem aplicação. Determinou-se a massa de líquido retido após a aplicação dos produtos por folha, com auxílio de balança de precisão. Verificou-se que um dia após a aplicação dos produtos, todos os tratamentos apresentaram mortalidade de B. phoenicis acima de 99%. Dessa forma, a adição de óleo, seja mineral, seja vegetal, ao acaricida cyhexatin não afetou a eficácia biológica deste acaricida nas formulações SC e WG. A maior fuga de B. phoenicis para a barreira de cola foi verificada nos tratamentos com adição de óleos, em comparação ao cyhexatin aplicado isoladamente. A adição de óleo, seja mineral, seja vegetal, ao cyhexatin na calda de pulverização reduziu a quantidade máxima de líquido retido pelas folhas de citros, podendo contribuir para a redução da quantidade de calda necessária para uma boa cobertura da planta.