Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections

Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1–0.2 mol m−3 in year 1990 to 0.2–0.4 mol m−3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

Pliocene foraminifera and SST changes in ODP Site 184-1125

Planktonic foraminiferal census counts were converted to sea surface temperature (SST) estimates using the modern analogue technique (MAT) for the middle-late Pliocene (4.0-2.37 Ma) in ODP Site 1125, north side of Chatham Rise, SW Pacific Ocean. MAT SST(warm) records range between 8°C and 20.5°C, and MAT SST(cold) records parallel that pattern but with a temperature range of 5-15°C. The modern position of Site 1125 is just north of the Subtropical Front and has an annual temperature range of ~14-18°C. Pliocene warmest temperatures are 1-2° warmer than modern summers, whereas cold season SST records are up to 6-10°C cooler than modern winters. Overall average temperatures at the site are 2-3°C cooler than modern temperatures during a time of sustained global warmth. Three major cold excursions centred on 3.35, 3.0, and 2.8 Ma showed warm season temperatures over 5°C colder than the last glacial maximum, experiencing temperatures typical of modern subantarctic waters. Two minor cold excursions at 2.7 Ma and 2.4 Ma experienced temperatures cooler than modern winters but not as cold as last glacial conditions. Cold season SSTs show a shift to warmer climate upward through the study interval, whereas warm season estimates remain essentially unchanged. We interpret the strong regional cooling of subtropical Southwest Pacific water through the middle-late Pliocene as having been caused by increased upwelling. It is also possible that the subtropical frontal zone moved north over the site in the Pliocene, however, this is considered the least likely interpretation. Our record of cool conditions in the Southwest Pacific corroborate evidence of cooler than modern conditions in other regions of the western Pacific through the mid-Pliocene despite overall global warming.

Annual response of two Mediterranean azooxanthellate temperate corals to low-pH and high-temperature conditions

Ocean acidification (OA) and warming related to the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 have been shown to have detrimental effects on several marine organisms, especially those with calcium carbonate structures such as corals. In this study, we evaluate the response of two Mediterranean shallow-water azooxanthellate corals to the projected pH and seawater temperature (ST) scenarios for the end of this century. The colonial coral Astroides calycularis and the solitary Leptopsammia pruvoti were grown in aquaria over a year under two fixed pH conditions, control (8.05 pHT units) and low (7.72 pHT units), and simulating two annual ST cycles, natural and high (+3 °C). The organic matter (OM), lipid and protein content of the tissue and the skeletal microdensity of A. calycularis were not affected by the stress conditions (low pH, high ST), but the species exhibited a mean 25 % decrease in calcification rate at high-ST conditions at the end of the warm period and a mean 10 % increase in skeletal porosity under the acidified treatment after a full year cycle. Conversely, an absence of effects on calcification and skeletal microdensity of L. pruvoti exposed to low-pH and high-ST treatments contrasted with a significant decrease in the OM, lipid and protein content of the tissue at high-ST conditions and a 13 % mean increase in the skeletal porosity under low-pH conditions following a full year of exposure. This species-specific response suggests that different internal self-regulation strategies for energy reallocation may allow certain shallow-water azooxanthellate corals to cope more successfully than others with global environmental changes.

Temperature affects the morphology and calcification of Emiliania huxleyi strains

The global warming debate has sparked an unprecedented interest in temperature effects on coccolithophores. The calcification response to temperature changes reported in the literature, however, is ambiguous. The two main sources of this ambiguity are putatively differences in experimental setup and strain-specificity. In this study we therefore compare three strains isolated in the North Pacific under identical experimental conditions. Three strains of Emiliania huxleyi type A were grown under non-limiting nutrient and light conditions, at 10, 15, 20 and 25 ºC. All three strains displayed similar growth rate versus temperature relationships, with an optimum at 20-25 ºC. Elemental production (particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), total particulate nitrogen (TPN)), coccolith mass, coccolith size, and width of the tube elements cycle were positively correlated with temperature over the sub-optimum to optimum temperature range. The correlation between PIC production and coccolith mass/size supports the notion that coccolith mass can be used as a proxy for PIC production in sediment samples. Increasing PIC production was significantly positively correlated with the percentage of incomplete coccoliths in one strain only. Generally, coccoliths were heavier when PIC production was higher. This shows that incompleteness of coccoliths is not due to time shortage at high PIC production. Sub-optimal growth temperatures lead to an increase in the percentage of malformed coccoliths in a strain-specific fashion. Since in total only six strains have been tested thus far, it is presently difficult to say whether sub-optimal temperature is an important factor causing malformations in the field. The most important parameter in biogeochemical terms, the PIC:POC, shows a minimum at optimum growth temperature in all investigated strains. This clarifies the ambiguous picture featuring in the literature, i.e. discrepancies between PIC:POC-temperature relationships reported in different studies using different strains and different experimental setups. In summary, global warming might cause a decline in coccolithophore's PIC contribution to the rain ratio, as well as improved fitness in some genotypes due to less coccolith malformations.

The observed global warming record: What does it tell us?

Global, near-surface temperature data sets and their derivations are discussed, and differences between the Jones and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change data sets are explained. Global-mean temperature changes are then interpreted in terms of anthropogenic forcing influences and natural variability. The inclusion of aerosol forcing improves the fit between modeled and observed changes but does not improve the agreement between the implied climate sensitivity value and the standard model-based range of 1.5–4.5°C equilibrium warming for a CO2 doubling. The implied sensitivity goes from below the model-based range of estimates to substantially above this range. The addition of a solar forcing effect further improves the fit and brings the best-fit sensitivity into the middle of the model-based range. Consistency is further improved when internally generated changes are considered. This consistency, however, hides many uncertainties that surround observed data/model comparisons. These uncertainties make it impossible currently to use observed global-scale temperature changes to narrow the uncertainty range in the climate sensitivity below that estimated directly from climate models.

(Table 1) Sea surface temperature reconstruction for eastern equatorial Pacific surface sediment samples

Significant uncertainties persist in the reconstruction of past sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, especially regarding the amplitude of the glacial cooling and the details of the post-glacial warming. Here we present the first regional calibration of alkenone unsaturation in surface sediments versus mean annual sea surface temperatures (maSST). Based on 81 new and 48 previously published data points, it is shown that open ocean samples conform to established global regressions of Uk'37 versus maSST and that there is no systematic bias from seasonality in the production or export of alkenones, or from surface ocean nutrient concentrations or salinity. The flattening of the regression at the highest maSSTs is found to be statistically insignificant. For the near-coastal Peru upwelling zone between 11-15°S and 76-79°W, however, we corroborate earlier observations that Uk'37 SST estimates significantly over-estimate maSSTs at many sites. We posit that this is caused either by uncertainties in the determination of maSSTs in this highly dynamic environment, or by biasing of the alkenone paleothermometer toward El Niño events as postulated by Rein et al. (2005).

Last Interglacial synthesis of high-latitude temperature: temperature anomalies and associated errors for 4 time slices

The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129-116 thousand of years BP, ka) represents a test bed for climate model feedbacks in warmer-than-present high latitude regions. However, mainly because aligning different palaeoclimatic archives and from different parts of the world is not trivial, a spatio-temporal picture of LIG temperature changes is difficult to obtain. Here, we have selected 47 polar ice core and sub-polar marine sediment records and developed a strategy to align them onto the recent AICC2012 ice core chronology. We provide the first compilation of high-latitude temperature changes across the LIG associated with a coherent temporal framework built between ice core and marine sediment records. Our new data synthesis highlights non-synchronous maximum temperature changes between the two hemispheres with the Southern Ocean and Antarctica records showing an early warming compared to North Atlantic records. We also observe warmer than present-day conditions that occur for a longer time period in southern high latitudes than in northern high latitudes. Finally, the amplitude of temperature changes at high northern latitudes is larger compared to high southern latitude temperature changes recorded at the onset and the demise of the LIG. We have also compiled four data-based time slices with temperature anomalies (compared to present-day conditions) at 115 ka, 120 ka, 125 ka and 130 ka and quantitatively estimated temperature uncertainties that include relative dating errors. This provides an improved benchmark for performing more robust model-data comparison. The surface temperature simulated by two General Circulation Models (CCSM3 and HadCM3) for 130 ka and 125 ka is compared to the corresponding time slice data synthesis. This comparison shows that the models predict warmer than present conditions earlier than documented in the North Atlantic, while neither model is able to produce the reconstructed early Southern Ocean and Antarctic warming. Our results highlight the importance of producing a sequence of time slices rather than one single time slice averaging the LIG climate conditions.

Water temperature reconstructions based on paired Uk'37 and Tex86 records, and paired surface and subsurface Mg/Ca records

This dataset contains the collection of available published paired Uk'37 and Tex86 records spanning multi-millennial to multi-million year time scales, as well as a collection of Mg/Ca-derived temperatures measured in parallel on surface and subsurface dwelling foraminifera, both used in the analyses of Ho and Laepple, Nature Geoscience 2016. As the signal-to-noise ratios of proxy-derived Holocene temperatures are relatively low, we selected records that contain at least the last deglaciation (oldest sample >18kyr BP).

Sea surface temperature (TEX86), marine GDGTs and BIT index from ODP Hole 161-977A

The TEX86H temperature proxy is a relatively new proxy based on crenarchaeotal lipids and has rarely been applied together with other temperature proxies. In this study, we applied the TEX86H on a sediment core from the Alboran Sea (western Mediterranean, core ODP-977A) covering the penultimate climate cycle, that is, from 244 to 130 ka, and compared this with previously published sea surface temperatures derived from the Uk'37 of alkenones of haptophyta and Mg/Ca records of planktonic foraminifera. The TEX86H temperature record shows remarkably similar stadial-interstadial patterns and abrupt temperature changes to those observed with the Uk'37 palaeothermometer. Absolute TEX86H temperature estimates are generally higher than those of Uk'37, though this difference (<3°C in 81% of the data points) is mainly within the temperature calibration error for both proxies, suggesting that crenarchaeota and haptophyta experienced similar temperature variations. During occasional events (<5% of the analyzed time span), however, the TEX86H exhibits considerably higher absolute temperature estimates than the Uk'37. Comparison with Mg/Ca records of planktonic foraminifera as well as other Mediterranean TEX86 and Uk'37 records suggests that part of this divergence may be attributed to seasonal differences, that is, with TEX86H reflecting mainly the warm summer season while Uk'37 would show annual mean. Biases in the global calibration of both proxies or specific biases in the Mediterranean are an alternative, though less likely, explanation. Despite differences between absolute TEX86H and Uk'37 temperatures, the correlation between the two proxies (r**2 = 0.59, 95% significance) provides support for the occurrence of abrupt temperature variations in the western Mediterranean during the penultimate interglacial-to-glacial cycle.

Temperature affects the morphology and calcification of Emiliania huxleyi strains

The global warming debate has sparked an unprecedented interest in temperature effects on coccolithophores. The calcification response to temperature changes reported in the literature, however, is ambiguous. The two main sources of this ambiguity are putatively differences in experimental setup and strain specificity. In this study we therefore compare three strains isolated in the North Pacific under identical experimental conditions. Three strains of Emiliania huxleyi type A were grown under non-limiting nutrient and light conditions, at 10, 15, 20 and 25 °C. All three strains displayed similar growth rate versus temperature relationships, with an optimum at 20–25 °C. Elemental production (particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), total particulate nitrogen (TPN)), coccolith mass, coccolith size, and width of the tube element cycle were positively correlated with temperature over the sub-optimum to optimum temperature range. The correlation between PIC production and coccolith mass/size supports the notion that coccolith mass can be used as a proxy for PIC production in sediment samples. Increasing PIC production was significantly positively correlated with the percentage of incomplete coccoliths in one strain only. Generally, coccoliths were heavier when PIC production was higher. This shows that incompleteness of coccoliths is not due to time shortage at high PIC production. Sub-optimal growth temperatures lead to an increase in the percentage of malformed coccoliths in a strain-specific fashion. Since in total only six strains have been tested thus far, it is presently difficult to say whether sub-optimal temperature is an important factor causing malformations in the field. The most important parameter in biogeochemical terms, the PIC : POC ratio, shows a minimum at optimum growth temperature in all investigated strains. This clarifies the ambiguous picture featuring in the literature, i.e. discrepancies between PIC : POC–temperature relationships reported in different studies using different strains and different experimental setups. In summary, global warming might cause a decline in coccolithophore's PIC contribution to the rain ratio, as well as improved fitness in some genotypes due to fewer coccolith malformations.

Temperature affects the morphology and calcification of Emiliania huxleyi strains

The global warming debate has sparked an unprecedented interest in temperature effects on coccolithophores. The calcification response to temperature changes reported in the literature, however, is ambiguous. The two main sources of this ambiguity are putatively differences in experimental setup and strain specificity. In this study we therefore compare three strains isolated in the North Pacific under identical experimental conditions. Three strains of Emiliania huxleyi type A were grown under non-limiting nutrient and light conditions, at 10, 15, 20 and 25 °C. All three strains displayed similar growth rate versus temperature relationships, with an optimum at 20–25 °C. Elemental production (particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), total particulate nitrogen (TPN)), coccolith mass, coccolith size, and width of the tube element cycle were positively correlated with temperature over the sub-optimum to optimum temperature range. The correlation between PIC production and coccolith mass/size supports the notion that coccolith mass can be used as a proxy for PIC production in sediment samples. Increasing PIC production was significantly positively correlated with the percentage of incomplete coccoliths in one strain only. Generally, coccoliths were heavier when PIC production was higher. This shows that incompleteness of coccoliths is not due to time shortage at high PIC production. Sub-optimal growth temperatures lead to an increase in the percentage of malformed coccoliths in a strain-specific fashion. Since in total only six strains have been tested thus far, it is presently difficult to say whether sub-optimal temperature is an important factor causing malformations in the field. The most important parameter in biogeochemical terms, the PIC : POC ratio, shows a minimum at optimum growth temperature in all investigated strains. This clarifies the ambiguous picture featuring in the literature, i.e. discrepancies between PIC : POC–temperature relationships reported in different studies using different strains and different experimental setups. In summary, global warming might cause a decline in coccolithophore's PIC contribution to the rain ratio, as well as improved fitness in some genotypes due to fewer coccolith malformations.

Temperature variation and emergency hospital admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia, 1996-2005

Stroke is a leading cause of disability and death. This study evaluated the association between temperature variation and emergency admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia. Daily emergency admissions for stroke, meteorologic and air pollution data were obtained for the period of January 1996 to December 2005. The relative risk of emergency admissions for stroke was estimated with a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model. For primary intracerebral hemorrhage (PIH) emergency admissions, the average daily PIH for the group aged < 65 increased by 15% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 5, 26%) and 12% (95% CI: 2, 22%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature in summer, respectively, after controlling for potential confounding effects of humidity and air pollutants. For ischemic stroke (IS) emergency admissions, the average daily IS for the group aged ≥ 65 decreased by 3% (95% CI: -6, 0%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in winter after adjustment for confounding factors. Temperature variation was significantly associated with emergency admissions for stroke, and its impact varied with different type of stroke. Health authorities should pay greater attention to possible increasing emergency care for strokes when temperature changes, in both summer and winter.

Sensitivity of organic matter decomposition to warming varies with its quality

The relationship between organic matter (OM) lability and temperature sensitivity is disputed, with recent observations suggesting that responses of relatively more resistant OM to increased temperature could be greater than, equivalent to, or less than responses of relatively more labile OM. This lack of clear understanding limits the ability to forecast carbon (C) cycle responses to temperature changes. Here, we derive a novel approach (denoted Q(10-q)) that accounts for changes in OM quality during decomposition and use it to analyze data from three independent sources. Results from new laboratory soil incubations (labile Q(10-q)=2.1 +/- 0.2; more resistant Q(10-q)=3.8 +/- 0.3) and reanalysis of data from other soil incubations reported in the literature (labile Q(10-q)=2.3; more resistant Q(10-q)=3.3) demonstrate that temperature sensitivity of soil OM decomposition increases with decreasing soil OM lability. Analysis of data from a cross-site, field litter bag decomposition study (labile Q(10-q)=3.3 +/- 0.2; resistant Q(10-q)=4.9 +/- 0.2) shows that litter OM follows the same pattern, with greater temperature sensitivity for more resistant litter OM. Furthermore, the initial response of cultivated soils, presumably containing less labile soil OM (Q(10-q)=2.4 +/- 0.3) was greater than that for undisturbed grassland soils (Q(10-q)=1.7 +/- 0.1). Soil C losses estimated using this approach will differ from previous estimates as a function of the magnitude of the temperature increase and the proportion of whole soil OM comprised of compounds sensitive to temperature over that temperature range. It is likely that increased temperature has already prompted release of significant amounts of C to the atmosphere as CO2. Our results indicate that future losses of litter and soil C may be even greater than previously supposed.