Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

Strategy and Action Plan for Sustainable Land Management in the High Pamir and Pamir-Alai Mountains

This Strategy and Action Plan was written within the framework of the project on Sustainable Land Management in the High Pamir and Pamir-Alai Mountains (PALM). PALM is an integrated transboundary initiative of the governments of the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Tajikistan. It aims to address the interlinked problems of land degradation and poverty within a region that is one of Central Asia’s crucial sources of freshwater and a location of biodiversity hotspots. The project is executed by the Committee on Environment Protection in Tajikistan and the National Center for Mountain Regions Development in Kyrgyzstan, with fi nancial support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and other donors. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the GEF Implementing Agency for the project, and the United Nations University (UNU) is the International Executing Agency. This Strategy and Action Plan integrates the work of three main teams of experts, namely the Pamir-Alai Transboundary Strategy and Action Plan (PATSAP) team, the Legal Task Forces, and a team of Natural Disaster Risk specialists. The PATSAP team was coordinated by the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern, Switzerland. The Legal Task Force was led by the Australian Centre for Agriculture and Law of the University of New England (UNE), and responsibility for the Natural Disaster Risk assessment was with the Central- Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences (CAIAG) in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The development of the strategy took place from June 2009 to October 2010. The activities included fi eld study tours for updating the information base with fi rst-hand information from the local level, coordination meetings with actors from the region, and two multi-level stakeholder forums conducted in Khorog and Osh to identify priorities and to collect ideas for concrete action plans. The baseline information collected for the Strategy and Action Plan has been compiled by the experts and made available as reports1. A joint multi-level stakeholder forum was conducted in Jirgitol, Tajikistan, for in-depth discussion of the transboundary aspects. In August 2010, the draft Strategy and Action Plan was distributed among local, national, and international actors for consultation, and their comments were discussed at feedback forums in Khorog and Bishkek. This Strategy and Action Plan is intended as a recommendation. Nevertheless, it proposes concrete mechanisms for implementing the proposed sustainable land management (SLM) activities: The Regional Natural Resources Governance Framework provides the legal and policy concepts, principles, and regulatory requirements needed to create an enabling environment for SLM in the High Pamir and Pamir-Alai region at the transboundary, national, and local levels. The priority directions outlined provide a framework for the elaboration of rayon-level strategies and for strategies on specifi c topics (forestry, livestock, etc.), as well as for further development of government programmes and international projects. The action plans may serve as a pool of concrete ideas, which can be taken up by diff erent institutions and in smaller or larger projects. Finally, this document provides a basis for the elaboration and signing of targeted cooperation agreements on land use and management between the leaders of Osh oblast (Kyrgyz Republic), Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast, and Jirgitol rayon (Republic of Tajikistan).

Modularity and Integrity Issues in Instructional Engineering

Course materials for e-learning are a special type of information system (IS). Thus, in the development of educational material one may learn from principles, methods, and tools that originated in the Software Engineering (SE) discipline and that are relevant in similar ways in "Instructional Engineering". An important SE principle is mo dularization, which supports properties like reusability and adaptability of code. To foster the adaptability of courseware we present a concept in which learning material is organized as a library of modular course objects. A certain lecturer may customize the courseware according to his specific course requirements. He must consider logical dependencies of and relationship integrity between selected course objects. We discuss integrity issues that have to be regarded for the composition of consistent course materials.

Antifascismo y redes sociales en provincia : el Ateneo de Cultura Popular de Tandil, 1935-1936

El artículo estudia el surgimiento y la clausura del Ateneo de Cultura Popular de Tandil en el clima mundial de la lucha antifascista. Su propósito principal es identificar los mecanismos de circulación de ideas entre un centro cultural y su periferia y, a la vez, observar el contexto de recepción de ellas. Partiendo de los supuestos teóricos del social network analysis, se propone analizar el tejido de relaciones personales activado en la dinámica del centro cultural para explicar el motivo de su clausura. Así, presenta las dimensiones estructurales e interaccionales de la red social en la que los actores se hallan insertos. Finalmente, el artículo puede ser considerado un ejercicio intelectual para entender espacios sociales de práctica cultural en los que no domina la actividad profesionalizada.

Barium in seawater and sediments from the Artic Ocean

As part of ongoing circulation studies in the Arctic, seawater samples for dissolved Ba concentrations were obtained during Sep.-Oct., 1992 at several locations in the Bering Strait, Eastern Chukchi and Southern Beaufort Seas. The results reveal a dynamic rang (10 to 150 nmol/kg) for this element in the Arctic equal to or greater than that in combined Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans. Lowest levels are observed in surface waters, with values tending to decrease northwards in the direction of currents generally flowing frorn the Bering Strait along the Alaskan coast. Low surfacc concentrations tend to be accompanied by relatively enriched near bottom levels. On the basis of these spatial distributions, hydrographic observations and a knowledge of its behavior in other marine settings, it appears that Ba can be significantly depleted from surface waters as a result of the highly seasonal biological aclivities over Arctic marginal shelves. Removal at the surface is counteracted to some extent by regeneration at depth or in the sediments and by riverine inputs. The biologically related drawdown is likely to enhance the contrast between 'background' surface Ba levels in the Arctic and waters imprinted by regeneration and/or rivers, These preliminary findings suggest that Ba holds particular promise for tracing river waters and the ventilation of halodine waters hy laterally sinking brines produced during ice formation over the shelves.

World distribution of land cover changes, model in NetCDF format

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.

Modelo de Gestión del Conocimiento para la Competitividad del Sector de las Construcciones Petroleras, Petroquímicas y Energéticas Venezolanas

La construcción es una de las actividades más valiosas para la sociedad debido a la naturaleza de los servicios que ofrece y por el volumen de empleos y movimiento económico que genera. Por ello es un elemento fundamental para el desarrollo sustentable. Es una industria compleja, cada vez más dependiente del conocimiento. Debido a su naturaleza fragmentaria y temporal y la alta rotación de personal presenta grandes retos y complicaciones particulares. Estas dificultades en oportunidades pueden transformarse en problemas por la complejidad, localización geográfica o los requisitos técnicos, financieros e innovaciones de los proyectos. Debido a sus características, las construcciones sufren cambios en las condiciones planificadas. Con frecuencia estos cambios conducen a retrasos en la ejecución de los proyectos, costes superiores a los presupuestados y conflictos entre los clientes y los ejecutores. Esto genera problemas de competitividad que afectan tanto a países desarrollados como países en vías de desarrollo. Los problemas de la construcción tienen perniciosos efectos para la sociedad, que pierde recursos que deberían permitir mejores resultados en términos de calidad de vida y beneficios sociales y económicos. Debido a la importancia del sector y los ingentes recursos que se invierten en cada proyecto se justifican los máximos esfuerzos para lograr los mejores desempeños de esta industria. Éste interés ha orientado el desarrollo de investigaciones, para apoyar el logro de los objetivos de mejoramiento continuo y construcción sustentable. Los estudios desarrollados han permitido demostrar el valor añadido del conocimiento en todos los sectores productivos. Para la construcción, los conocimientos ofrecen indicadores de desempeño, datos y lecciones aprendidas provenientes de aciertos y errores. Estos deben conducir a aprendizajes fundamentales para sustentar su competitividad. Sin embargo, a pesar de los conocimientos disponibles y los avances en las técnicas de control gerencial y de proyectos, es alarmante la recurrencia de los problemas de construcción. Esta problemática se manifiesta con severidad en los proyectos de construcción industrial que se desarrollan para el sector petrolero, petroquímico y energético venezolano. El sector presenta evidentes necesidades para un mejor desempeño competitivo por la alta incidencia de retrasos de los proyectos, que implican pérdidas de gran parte de los recursos humanos, financieros, técnicos y conocimientos invertidos. Esta investigación plantea como objetivos analizar la importancia de la construcción y su sustentabilidad, los principales problemas que afectan el sector, la gestión del conocimiento y algunos modelos disponibles para gestionarlos. Igualmente examina las lecciones aprendidas y la productividad y competitividad, con particular atención a los problemas de competitividad venezolanos. Adicionalmente se evalúan las implicaciones del conocimiento como activo estratégico y se caracterizan las empresas de construcción industrial venezolanas. Para ello se identifican las dimensiones que sustentan la gestión del conocimiento en estas empresas, para finalmente determinar las que resultan más idóneas para el nuevo modelo a ser propuesto. Con estos objetivos se desarrolló el estudio empírico. Para ello fueron invitados a participar representantes de 105 empresas y expertos de construcción distintos, todos con experiencias de construcción al sector industrial venezolano. Se obtuvieron 112 respuestas en representación de 41 organizaciones y expertos diferentes. El trabajo de campo inició en Junio de 2012 y culminó en Noviembre de 2012. Los datos obtenidos fueron analizados con apoyo de técnicas estadísticas descriptivas y multivariables. Los objetivos de la investigación se alcanzaron ya que se logró caracterizar el sector de las construcciones industriales y se propuso un nuevo modelo de gestión del conocimiento adecuado a sus características. El nuevo modelo fue formulado atendiendo a criterios de sencillez, bajos costes y facilidad de adaptación para motivar su utilización en organizaciones de construcción industrial variadas. Con ello se busca que resulte de utilidad aún para las organizaciones más pequeñas, con menores recursos o aquellas que enfrentan entornos constructivos complicados. Por último se presentan algunas sugerencias para motivar la comprensión de los fenómenos estudiados en los grupos de interés de la construcción. Se propone analizar estos problemas desde las etapas iniciales de los estudios de ingeniería, de arquitectura, de construcción, de economía y administración. Igualmente se propone desarrollar acciones conjuntas de parte de los sectores académicos, gubernamentales, industriales y asociaciones para el mejoramiento competitivo y desarrollo sustentable global. La propuesta aporta datos sobre el sector constructivo venezolano en un área que presenta grandes carencias y propone un modelo innovador por su sencillez y orientación hacia el uso diario e intuitivo de los conocimientos como recursos fundamentales para la competitividad. Esta orientación puede tener trascendencia más allá del sector descrito, para apoyar la solución de problemas de otras industrias en entornos globales. ABSTRACT Construction is one of the most valuable activities for society due to the nature of the services offered and the number of jobs and revenues generated. Therefore it is a key element for sustainable development. Construction is a complex industry increasingly dependent on knowledge. Its temporary and fragmentary nature and the high staff turnover present great challenges and particular complications to construction. In some cases these conditions may evolve to serious problems because of the complexity, geographic location or even technical, financial and innovative requirements of each project. Due to their characteristics, constructions frequently undergo changes in planned conditions. Often these changes lead to delays in project completion, costs higher than budgeted and conflicts between clients and performers. This creates problems of competitiveness affecting both developed and developing countries. The construction problems have harmful effects on society, since it loses resources that would otherwise allow better results in terms of quality of life and social and economic benefits. The importance and the enormous resources invested in each project justify the efforts to achieve the best performance of this industry. This interest has guided the development of multiple research efforts to support the achievement of construction performance improvements and sustainable construction. The studies carried out have demonstrated the added value of knowledge in all productive sectors. For construction, knowledge offers performance indicators, data and lessons learned from successes and failures. These should lead to fundamental learning to sustain sector competitiveness. However, despite the available knowledge and advances in techniques and project management control, the recurrence of construction problems is alarming. This problem shows itself severely in industrial construction projects that are developed for the Venezuelan oil, petrochemical and energy sectors. These sectors have evident needs for better competitive performance because of the high incidence of project delays, involving loss of much of the human, financial, technical and knowledge resources invested. This research analyzes the importance of construction and sustainability, the main problems affecting the sector, knowledge and some models available to manage them. It also examines the lessons learned and the productivity and competitiveness, with particular attention to the problems of Venezuelan competitiveness. Additionally, the Venezuelan industrial construction companies are characterized evaluating the implications of knowledge as an strategic asset for construction. Moreover, the research evaluates the dimensions that support knowledge management in these companies, to finally identify those that are the most suitable for the new model to be proposed. With these objectives in mind the empirical study was developed. 105 different companies and experts with Venezuelan industrial construction experiences were invited to participate on the survey. 112 responses were obtained representing 41 different organizations and experts. Fieldwork started in June 2012 and ended in November 2012. The data obtained was analyzed with descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques. The research objectives were achieved since the industrial construction sector was characterized and a new management model was proposed based on the particular characteristics of these companies. The new model was formulated according to the criteria of simplicity, low cost and ease of adaptation. This was performed to motivate the use of the new model in various industrial construction organizations, even in smaller companies, with limited resources or those facing complex construction environments. Finally some suggestions to encourage understanding of the phenomena studied among construction stakeholders were proposed. The importance of studying these problems at an early stage of the engineering, architectural, construction, economic and administration studies is highlighted. Additionally, academic, government, industrial organizations and associations are invited to join efforts to improve the competitive and sustainable global development. The proposal provides data on the Venezuelan construction sector in an area that has large gaps and proposes a model which is innovative for its simplicity and suggests the daily and intuitive use of knowledge resources as a key issue to competitiveness. This orientation may have implications beyond the described sector to support the solution of problems of other industries in a global environment.

Análisis sectorial y posicionamiento estratégico: el caso de la industria naval hacia el 2050

El motivo de abordar esta Tesis responde al hecho personal de haber vivido históricamente momentos cumbre de la Construcción Naval en España y no dejar de plantearme, a pesar de mi distancia del sector desde el punto de vista profesional, en las opciones de futuro para volver a ser competitivos en un sector que ha tenido un peso tan importante en la economía española, y que tanto ha ilusionado a centenares de profesionales y compañeros a lo largo de muchas décadas con el optimismo de estar aportando valor para que España fuera competitiva. A lo largo de los últimos años, y la relación con el ámbito de la dirección de Empresas desde el punto de vista de una Escuela de Negocios, así como el contacto con enfoques estratégicos en sectores muy diversos me animó a plantearme la Tesis con el objetivo de reflejar el estado actual del sector y poder valorar alternativas de futuro para la Construcción Naval española, aun sabiendo que son muchos los “maestros” realmente autorizados en nuestros país, con amplios conocimientos y experiencia, que muchas veces, a pesar de las propuestas y de los esfuerzos que han realizado para impulsar el sector, se han encontrado con situaciones adversas, bien de tipo económico, social‐laboral, político ‐a nivel nacional, europeo o global‐, etc., que han impedido un fortalecimiento del sector como todos hubiéramos deseado. La presión histórica ejercida por los países competidores en Construcción naval del ámbito asiático y lejano oriente, así como los compromisos derivados de las Directivas europeas, han obligado al sector de la Construcción Naval en España a buscar unos nuevos posicionamientos estratégicos presentes y, sobre todo, de futuro. Partiendo de un análisis del sector naval, tanto del mercado nacional como del internacional, con especial foco en los países líderes, se plantea investigar, siguiendo el modelo de Porter, las fuerzas competitivas que han influido en estas últimas décadas y que han conducido a la situación actual, valorando la estructura competitiva, el entorno relevante y los efectos de la globalización, con las amenazas de los nuevos y actuales competidores y las barreras existentes. Para abordar esta investigación se ha realizado un análisis del sector naval con la siguiente metodología: 1. Análisis del estado actual de la construcción naval en España. 2. Análisis del estado actual de la construcción naval en el mundo. 3. Estudio de la demanda en el mercado y evolución de la misma en los últimos años: muy centrada en los países líderes y más competitivos. 4. Estudio de las perspectivas de negocio en el sector marítimo y oceánico: estudio particular del transporte marítimo y una comparativa con la explotación de recursos oceánicos. Finalmente se decidió no abordar por falta de datos de futuro las construcciones militares. 5. Estudio de características de la industria naval española y capacidad de los astilleros. Se ha focalizado especialmente en la construcción para valorar la capacidad de futuro. 6. Análisis de fuerzas competitivas de la industria naval española a partir del modelo de Porter. En esta parte se incluyen alguno de los factores críticos externos e internos que ayudan a identificar barreras y estrategias en el entorno de la construcción naval como sector global. 7. Identificación de las oportunidades de negocio hacia el 2050. 8. Alternativas para una estrategia competitiva de actuación frente a las oportunidades de futuro en el 2050. Con esta Tesis se aporta un estudio competitivo actualizado, de acuerdo con el modelo de Porter, con el fin de proponer una posible estrategia competitiva de futuro, que posicione competitivamente la industria naval y el sector marítimo en España en las próximas décadas. ABSTRACT The reason for addressing this thesis responds to my personal experience about having lived historical moments summit Shipbuilding in Spain. Despite my distance from this industry from a professional point of view, I have never stopped wonder myself which are the options for the future to become competitive in an industry that has had such an important weight in the Spanish economy, which has excited so hundreds of professionals and peers through many decades with optimism to be adding value to Spain in order to be competitive again. Over recent years, and the relationship with the field of business management from the point of view of a business school, as well as contact with strategic approaches in diverse sectors encouraged me to wonder Thesis order to reflect the current state of the sector and to evaluate future alternatives for the Spanish Shipbuilding, knowing that many "teachers" really allowed in our country, with extensive knowledge and experience that often, despite proposals and the efforts that have been made to boost the sector, have met with adverse situations, whether economic, social and labor, political kind ‐at national, European or global‐level, etc., that have prevented a strengthening of all sectors we wished. The historical pressure from competing countries in Shipbuilding Asian area and Far East, as well as commitments arising from EU directives, have forced the shipbuilding industry in Spain to seek a new strategic positions present and, above all, future. Starting from an analysis of the shipbuilding sector, both national and international market, with special focus on the leading countries, we propose to investigate, following the model of Porter, the competitive forces that have influenced recent decades and have led to the current situation, assessing the competitive structure of the relevant environment and the effects of globalization, with the threat of new and existing competitors and barriers. To address this research has analyzed the naval sector with the following methodology: 1. Analysis of the current state of shipbuilding in Spain. 2. Analysis of the current state of shipbuilding in the world. 3. Study of the demand in the market and evolution of the same in recent years: very focused on the leading and most competitive countries. 4. Study of business prospects in the maritime and oceanic sector: private study of maritime transport and a comparison with the exploitation of ocean resources. Finally it was decided not to address a lack of data future military construction. 5. Study of characteristics of the Spanish shipbuilding and shipyard capacity. It is particularly focused on building the capacity to assess future. 6. Analysis of competitive forces of the Spanish shipbuilding industry from the model of Porter. In this part they include some critics of the external and internal factors that help identify barriers and strategies in the environment of global shipbuilding sector. 7. Identification of business opportunities by 2050. 8. Alternatives to a competitive strategy of action against future opportunities in 2050. This thesis has sought to provide a competitive study updated according to Porter's model, in order to propose a possible future competitive strategy to reach a competitive position at the shipbuilding industry and the maritime sector in Spain in the coming decades. The historical pressure from competing countries in the Asian sphere Shipbuilding and Far East, as well as commitments arising from EU directives have forced the shipbuilding industry in Spain to seek a new strategic positioning. Starting from an analysis of the shipbuilding sector, both national and international market, with a special focus on the leading countries, it is proposed to analyze, following the model of Porter, the competitive forces that have influenced in recent decades and have led to the current situation, studying the competitive structure of the relevant environment and the effects of globalization, with the threat of new and existing competitors and barriers. It concludes with a forecast of future market and business opportunities arising in the global environment of maritime and naval Industry, in order to propose a possible competitive strategy for the near future, which could help to achieve a competitive position on the shipbuilding and maritime sector in Spain for the coming decades.

Sistema colaborativo de detección y seguimiento de anomalías mediante visión por computador

En este proyecto se realiza el diseño e implementación de un sistema que detecta anomalías en las entradas de entornos controlados. Para ello, se hace uso de las últimas técnicas en visión por computador y se avisa visual y auditivamente, mediante un sistema hardware que recibe señales del ordenador al que está conectado. Se marca y fotografía, a una o varias personas, que cometen una infracción en las entradas de un establecimiento, vigilado con sistemas de vídeo. Las imágenes se almacenan en las carpetas correspondientes. El sistema diseñado es colaborativo, por lo tanto, las cámaras que intervienen, se comunican entre ellas a través de estructuras de datos con el objetivo de intercambiar información. Además, se utiliza conexión inalámbrica desde un dispositivo móvil para obtener una visión global del entorno desde cualquier lugar del mundo. La aplicación se desarrolla en el entorno MATLAB, que permite un tratamiento de la señal de imagen apropiado para el presente proyecto. Asimismo, se proporciona al usuario una interfaz gráfica con la que interactuar de manera sencilla, evitando así, el cambio de parámetros en la estructura interna del programa cuando se quiere variar el entorno o el tipo de adquisición de datos. El lenguaje que se escoge facilita la ejecución en distintos sistemas operativos, incluyendo Windows o iOS y, de esta manera, se proporciona flexibilidad. ABSTRACT. This project studies the design and implementation of a system that detects any anomalies on the entrances to controlled environments. To this end, it is necessary the use of last techniques in computer vision in order to notify visually and aurally, by a hardware system which receives signs from the computer it is connected to. One or more people that commit an infringement while entering into a secured environment, with video systems, are marked and photographed and those images are stored in their belonging file folder. This is a collaborative design system, therefore, every involved camera communicates among themselves through data structures with the purpose of exchanging information. Furthermore, to obtain a global environment vision from any place in the world it uses a mobile wireless connection. The application is developed in MATLAB environment because it allows an appropriate treatment of the image signal for this project. In addition, the user is given a graphical interface to easily interact, avoiding with this, changing any parameters on the program’s intern structure, when it requires modifying the environment or the data type acquisition. The chosen language eases its execution in different operating systems, including Windows or iOS, providing flexibility.

Did quantitative easing affect interest rates outside the US? New evidence based on interest rate differentials. CEPS Working Document No. 416/January 2016

This paper explores the effects of non-standard monetary policies on international yield relationships. Based on a descriptive analysis of international long-term yields, we find evidence that long-term rates followed a global downward trend prior to as well as during the financial crisis. Comparing interest rate developments in the US and the eurozone, it is difficult to detect a distinct impact of the first round of the Fed’s quantitative easing programme (QE1) on US interest rates for which the global environment – the global downward trend in interest rates – does not account. Motivated by these findings, we analyse the impact of the Fed’s QE1 programme on the stability of the US-euro long-term interest rate relationship by using a CVAR (cointegrated vector autoregressive) model and, in particular, recursive estimation methods. Using data gathered between 2002 and 2014, we find limited evidence that QE1 caused the break-up or destabilised the transatlantic interest rate relationship. Taking global interest rate developments into account, we thus find no significant evidence that QE had any independent, distinct impact on US interest rates.