Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux

Now that stratospheric ozone depletion has been controlled by the Montreal Protocol1, interest has turned to the effects of climate change on the ozone layer. Climate models predict an accelerated stratospheric circulation, leading to changes in the spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone and an increased stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux. Here we use an atmospheric chemistry climate model to isolate the effects of climate change from those of ozone depletion and recovery on stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux and the clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index—a measure of potential human exposure to ultraviolet radiation. We show that under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change moderate emissions scenario, global stratosphere-to- troposphere ozone flux increases by 23% between 1965 and 2095 as a result of climate change. During this time, the clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index decreases by 9% in northern high latitudes — a much larger effect than that of stratospheric ozone recovery — and increases by 4% in the tropics, and by up to 20% in southern high latitudes in late spring and early summer. The latter increase in the ultraviolet index is equivalent to nearly half of that generated by the Antarctic ‘ozone hole’ that was created by anthropogenic halogens. Our results suggest that climate change will alter the tropospheric ozone budget and the ultraviolet index, which would have consequences for tropospheric radiative forcing, air quality and human and ecosystem health.

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C.

Comparison of the radiative properties and direct radiative effect of aerosols from a global aerosol model and remote sensing data over ocean

A global aerosol transport model (Oslo CTM2) with main aerosol components included is compared to five satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and one data set of the satellite-derived radiative effect of aerosols. The model is driven with meteorological data for the period November 1996 to June 1997 which is the time period investigated in this study. The modelled AOD is within the range of the AOD from the various satellite retrievals over oceanic regions. The direct radiative effect of the aerosols as well as the atmospheric absorption by aerosols are in both cases found to be of the order of 20 Wm−2 in certain regions in both the satellite-derived and the modelled estimates as a mean over the period studied. Satellite and model data exhibit similar patterns of aerosol optical depth, radiative effect of aerosols, and atmospheric absorption of the aerosols. Recently published results show that global aerosol models have a tendency to underestimate the magnitude of the clear-sky direct radiative effect of aerosols over ocean compared to satellite-derived estimates. However, this is only to a small extent the case with the Oslo CTM2. The global mean direct radiative effect of aerosols over ocean is modelled with the Oslo CTM2 to be –5.5 Wm−2 and the atmospheric aerosol absorption 1.5 Wm−2.

Global snow mass measurements and the effect of stratigraphic detail on inversion of microwave brightness temperatures

Snow provides large seasonal storage of freshwater, and information about the distribution of snow mass as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is important for hydrological planning and detecting climate change impacts. Large regional disagreements remain between estimates from reanalyses, remote sensing and modelling. Assimilating passive microwave information improves SWE estimates in many regions but the assimilation must account for how microwave scattering depends on snow stratigraphy. Physical snow models can estimate snow stratigraphy, but users must consider the computational expense of model complexity versus acceptable errors. Using data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Cold Land Processes Experiment (NASA CLPX) and the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) microwave emission model of layered snowpacks, it is shown that simulations of the brightness temperature difference between 19 GHz and 37 GHz vertically polarised microwaves are consistent with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) retrievals once known stratigraphic information is used. Simulated brightness temperature differences for an individual snow profile depend on the provided stratigraphic detail. Relative to a profile defined at the 10 cm resolution of density and temperature measurements, the error introduced by simplification to a single layer of average properties increases approximately linearly with snow mass. If this brightness temperature error is converted into SWE using a traditional retrieval method then it is equivalent to ±13 mm SWE (7% of total) at a depth of 100 cm. This error is reduced to ±5.6 mm SWE (3 % of total) for a two-layer model.

Evidence for a second meal cognitive effect: glycaemic responses to high and low glycaemic index evening meals are associated with cognition the following morning

Low glycaemic index (GI) foods consumed at breakfast can enhance memory in comparison to high-GI foods; however, the impact of evening meal GI manipulations on cognition the following morning remains unexplored. Fourteen healthy males consumed a high-GI evening meal or a low-GI evening meal in a counterbalanced order on two separate evenings. Memory and attention were assessed before and after a high-GI breakfast the following morning. The high-GI evening meal elicited significantly higher evening glycaemic responses than the low-GI evening meal. Verbal recall was better the morning following the high-GI evening meal compared to after the low-GI evening meal. In summary, the GI of the evening meal was associated with memory performance the next day, suggesting a second meal cognitive effect. The present findings imply that an overnight fast may not be sufficient to control for previous nutritional consumption.

Global radiative and climate effect of the water vapour continuum at visible and near-infrared wavelengths

Recent laboratory measurements show that absorption by the water vapour continuum in near-infrared windows may be about an order of magnitude higher than assumed in many radiation codes. The radiative impact of the continuum at visible and near-infrared wavelengths is examined for the present day and for a possible future warmer climate (with a global-mean total column water increase of 33%). The calculations use a continuum model frequently used in climate models (‘CKD’) and a continuum model where absorption is enhanced at wavelengths greater than 1 µm based on recent measurements (‘CAVIAR’). The continuum predominantly changes the partitioning between solar radiation absorbed by the surface and the atmosphere; changes in top-of-atmosphere net irradiances are smaller. The global-mean clear-sky atmospheric absorption is enhanced by 1.5 W m−2 (about 2%) and 2.8 W m−2 (about 3.5%) for CKD and CAVIAR respectively, relative to a hypothetical no-continuum case, with all-sky enhancements about 80% of these values. The continuum is, in relative terms, more important for radiation budget changes between the present day and a possible future climate. Relative to the no-continuum case, the increase in global-mean clear-sky absorption is 8% higher using CKD and almost 20% higher using CAVIAR; all-sky enhancements are about half these values. The effect of the continuum is estimated for the solar component of the water vapour feedback, the reduction in downward surface irradiance and precipitation change in a warmer world. For CKD and CAVIAR respectively, and relative to the no-continuum case, the solar component of the water vapour feedback is enhanced by about 4 and 9%, the change in clear-sky downward surface irradiance is 7 and 18% more negative, and the global-mean precipitation response decreases by 1 and 4%. There is a continued need for improved continuum measurements, especially at atmospheric temperatures and at wavelengths below 2 µm.

Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single ‘deterministic’ forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale,which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia.

Effect of Fusarium graminearum and infection index on germination and vigor of maize seeds

Patógenos em sementes de milho (Zea mays) causam sérios problemas, como a perda de sua capacidade germinativa. O objetivo do trabalho foi determinar qual o melhor tempo para infecção das sementes de milho com Fusarium graminearum, para posterior avaliação dos danos causados pelo fungo na germinação e vigor das mesmas. As sementes foram colocadas sobre meio de BDA contendo o patógeno e incubadas por 4, 8, 16 e 32 h. Após os respectivos períodos de incubação, estas foram submetidas ao teste de sanidade (papel de filtro), com duas variações, sem e com assepsia superficial, usando hipoclorito de sódio a 1% de cloro ativo, por 3 min. Determinado o melhor tempo para infecção, outras sementes foram infetadas com o patógeno, para realização dos testes de germinação e vigor (envelhecimento acelerado e teste de frio) com uma mistura de sementes sadias (colocadas sobre o meio BDA) e sementes inoculadas, resultando em 0, 20, 40, 60, 80 e 100% de sementes infetadas com o fungo em estudo. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que o período de incubação de 32 h foi suficiente para se obter sementes infetadas. Com relação à germinação, não houve diferenças significativas entre os diferentes níveis de infecção, provavelmente devido ao alto vigor das sementes de milho testadas. Quanto aos testes de vigor, os níveis de infecção diferiram significativamente da testemunha, apesar de não terem diferido entre si.

Effect of maternal hydration on the increase of amniotic fluid index

The objective of this study was to determine the effect of maternal hydration with oral isotonic solution and water on the amniotic fluid (AF) index of women with normohydramnios. Women with a normal AF index and gestational age between 33 and 36 weeks without maternal complications were randomized into three groups [isotonic solution (Gatorade (R)), water, control]. The isotonic solution and water groups were instructed to drink 1.5 L of the respective solution and the control group was instructed to drink 200 mL water over a period of 2 to 4 h. AF index was measured before and after hydration by Doppler ultrasonography. The investigator performing the AF index measurement was blind to the subject's group. Ninety-nine women completed the study without any adverse maternal effects. The median increase in AF index after hydration was significantly greater for the isotonic solution and water groups than for the control group. There was no significant difference between the isotonic solution and water groups. Hydration with isotonic solution and water caused a 10-fold (95% CI: 2.09-49.89) and 6-fold (95% CI: 1.16-30.95) increase in the chance of a 20% increase of AF index, respectively. Maternal hydration with isotonic solution or water increased the AF index in women with normohydramnios.

O mecanismo de desenvolvimento limpo como mitigador do aquecimento global e a participação do Brasil

Este estudo, de relevância econômico-ambiental, parte do problema do aquecimento global para analisar o Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL) como uma ferramenta capaz de contribuir para a mitigação dos gases de efeito estufa (GEE) por meio do cumprimento de metas de redução de emissões pré estabelecidas pelo Protocolo de Quioto. Examina-se e participação do Brasil como país hospedeiro dos projetos do MDL. Conclui-se que, embora a implementação do MDL diminua o custo global de redução de emissões de gases estufa pelos países desenvolvidos e apóie iniciativas que promovam o desenvolvimento sustentável, a falta de maior especificidade nas regras do mecanismo pode abrir precedentes ao direito de poluir. Entende-se que o mecanismo não deve restringir-se somente ao cumprimento de meta, mas é fundamental que atue como desestimulante da poluição em sua origem, conforme a proposta de sustentabilidade, norte da política ambiental climática.

The effect of chlorhexidine on plaque index and mutans streptococci in orthodontic patients: A pilot study

Aim: The purpose of this study was to assess chlorhexidine effects on plaque index and salivary levels of mutans streptococci (MS) when used as the immersion solution for removable orthodontic appliances and added to their acrylic resin composition. Methods: Forty-five patients (6 to 12 years old) were randomly assigned into three groups with 15 patients each. Group I (control)—without orthodontic appliances disinfection; Group II—removable orthodontic appliances which had been immersed in 0.12% chlorhexidine digluconate overnight (8 hours), and Group III—orthodontic appliances in which 0.12% chlorhexidine digluconate solution had been incorporated into their resin composition. Saliva was collected for quantification of MS and evaluation of plaque index was performed before and after installation of orthodontic appliance at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 weeks. Data were analyzed by using analysis of variance. Results: Number of MS colonies in saliva and plaque index showed no statistically differences among groups at the different periods (p > 0.05). Conclusions: It could be concluded that chlorhexidine incorporation into the acrylic resin of removable orthodontic appliances at 0.12% concentration and immersion of the appliance into 0.12% chlorhexidine solution were not effective in reducing plaque index and the number of MS in saliva.

Effect of pH and temperature on the global compactness, structure, and activity of cellobiohydrolase Cel7A from Trichoderma harzianum

Due to its elevated cellulolytic activity, the filamentous fungus Trichoderma harzianum (T. harzianum) has considerable potential in biomass hydrolysis application. Cellulases from Trichoderma reesei have been widely used in studies of cellulose breakdown. However, cellulases from T. harzianum are less-studied enzymes that have not been characterized biophysically and biochemically as yet. Here, we examined the effects of pH and temperature on the secondary and tertiary structures, compactness, and enzymatic activity of cellobiohydrolase Cel7A from T. harzianum (Th Cel7A) using a number of biophysical and biochemical techniques. Our results show that pH and temperature perturbations affect Th Cel7A stability by two different mechanisms. Variations in pH modify protonation of the enzyme residues, directly affecting its activity, while leading to structural destabilization only at extreme pH limits. Temperature, on the other hand, has direct influence on mobility, fold, and compactness of the enzyme, causing unfolding of Th Cel7A just above the optimum temperature limit. Finally, we demonstrated that incubation with cellobiose, the product of the reaction and a competitive inhibitor, significantly increased the thermal stability of Th Cel7A. Our studies might provide insights into understanding, at a molecular level, the interplay between structure and activity of Th Cel7A at different pH and temperature conditions.

Effect of age at disease onset in the clinical profile of spondyloarthritis: a study of 1424 Brazilian patients

Objectives To analyse demographic and clinical variables in patients with disease onset before and after 40, 45 and 50 years in a large series of Brazilian SpA patients. Methods A common protocol of investigation was prospectively applied to 1424 SpA patients in 29 centres distributed through the main geographical regions in Brazil. The mean age at disease onset was 28.56 +/- 12.34 years, with 259 patients (18.2%) referring disease onset after 40 years, 15.1 (10.6%) after 45 years and 81 (5.8%) after 50 years. Clinical and demographic variables and disease indices (BASDAI, BASFI, BASRI, MASES, ASQoL) were investigated. Ankylosing spondylitis was the most frequent disease (66.3%), followed by psoriatic arthritis (18%), undifferentiated SpA (6.7%), reactive arthritis (5.5%), and enteropathic arthritis (3.5%). Results Comparing the groups according to age of disease onset, those patients with later onset presented statistical association with female gender, peripheral arthritis, dactylitis, nail involvement and psoriasis, as well as negative statistical association with inflammatory low hack pain, alternating buttock pain, radiographic sacroiliitis, hip involvement, positive familial history, HLA-B27 and uveitis. BASDAI, BASFI and quality of life, as well as physicians and patient's global assessment, were similar in all the groups. Radiographic indices showed worse results in the younger age groups. Conclusion There are two different clinical patterns in SpA defined by age at disease onset: one with predominance of axial symptoms in the group with disease onset <= 40 years and another favouring the peripheral manifestations in those with later disease onset.