A note on inflation targeting and economic growth in Brazil

This paper analyzes the relation between monetary policy and economic performance in Brazil during the period 1999-2006. In particular, it discusses the growth effects of the inflation targeting regime through its effects on aggregate demand. It is argued that monetary policy under IT reacts in a procyclical and asymmetric way to fluctuations in economic activity (too "tight" during recessions, not so "loose" during expansions). Such pattern may generate a downward bias in aggregate demand, with negative real effects on output growth and employment. Our results suggest that monetary policy has been procyclical and asymmetrical in Brazil under inflation targeting. The main economic policy implication of this study is that central banks should consider more seriously the real effects of monetary policy on output and employment.

Uncertainties, monetary policy and financial stability: challenges on inflation targeting

This work aims at presenting the challenges that inflation targeting central banks may face since uncertainties represent a harmful element for the effectiveness of monetary policy, and since financial instabilities may disturb the transmission mechanisms - in particular, the expectation channel - and thus the economic stability. Financial stability must not be considered as a simple goal of monetary policy, but a precondition for central banks operate their policies and reach the goals of inflation and output stability. The work identifies different sources of uncertainties that surround central banks' decisions; and approaches the role that inflation targeting central banks should play according to some basic principles that can serve as useful guides for central banks to help them achieve successful outcomes in their conduct of monetary policy.

Exchange rate pass-through inflation and wage differentials in late-industrializing economies: the Mexican case

This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through inflation, and the wage bargaining process, in a developing economy in which firms' market power is largely dependent on technical progress embodied in imported intermediates and capital goods. It develops a heterodox model of income distribution, based on theoretical contributions from Latin American structuralists, labor market segmentationists and post-Keynesian writers, and it presents supportive empirical evidence from the Mexican economy.

A note on the Pazos-Simonsen mechanism and Kaldor's early research on Latin American inflation

In contrast with the inflationary finance story, inflation acceleration in Latin America has been explained as the result of the interaction of inflation dynamics and the frequency of wage adjustments. Accordingly, small inflation disturbances are connected with a shift from moderate to high inflation (or beyond to hyperinflation) though a mechanism that makes adjustment intervals in wage contracts endogenous. Rudiger Dornbusch (1986) labeled this process the "Pazos-Simonsen mechanism". In this note we summarize the basic contribution of both Felipe Pazos (1978) and Mario Henrique Simonsen (1983) and find crucial differences between their views on wage dynamics, specifically regarding the endogeneity of the time interval between wage readjustments. A remarkable affinity with Pazos's view on wage dynamics and inflation is found in an early and almost unknown essay written by Nicholas Kaldor in 1957 (inspired in his brief experience in Latin America).

Energy Efficiency in Electrical Drive Systems: Technical potentials, barriers and policy approaches for small and medium industries in Ghana

Today industries and commerce in Ghana are facing enormous energy challenge. The pressure is on for industries to reduce energy consumption, lower carbon emissions and provide se-cured power supply. Industrial electric motor energy efficiency improvement is one of the most important tools to reduce global warming threat and reduce electricity bills. In order to develop a strategic industrial energy efficiency policy, it is therefore necessary to study the barriers that inhibit the implementation of cost – effective energy efficiency measures and the driving forces that promote the implementation. The aim of this thesis is to analyse the energy consumption pattern of electric motors, study factors that promote or inhibit energy efficiency improvements in EMDS and provide cost – effective solutions that improve energy efficiency to bridge the existing energy efficiency gap in the surveyed industries. The results from this thesis has revealed that, the existence of low energy efficiency in motor-driven systems in the surveyed industries were due to poor maintenance practices, absence of standards, power quality issues, lack of access to capital and limited awareness to the im-portance of energy efficiency improvements in EMDS. However, based on the results pre-sented in this thesis, a policy approach towards industrial SMEs should primarily include dis-counted or free energy audit in providing the industries with the necessary information on potential energy efficiency measures, practice best motor management programmes and estab-lish a minimum energy performance standard (MEPS) for motors imported into the country. The thesis has also shown that education and capacity development programmes, financial incentives and system optimization are effective means to promote energy efficiency in elec-tric motor – driven systems in industrial SMEs in Ghana

Advocating recognition and redistribution in poverty alleviation programs in Ghana : an examination of state and NGO programs and policies

Abstract This thesis argues that poverty alleviation strategies and programs carried out by the government and Non Governmental Organizations in Ghana provide affirmative solutions to poverty. This is because, these intervention strategies have been influenced by conventional discourses on poverty that fail to adequately address non-economic issues of poverty such as powerlessness, marginalization and tmder-representation. The study is carried out in a two-pronged manner; first, it analyses state policies and strategies, particularly the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS), on poverty alleviation and compares these to NGO programs, implemented with funds and support from external donor organizations. Specifically, I focus on how NGOs and the governnlent of Ghana negotiate autonomy and financial dependency with their funding donor-partners and how these affect their policies and programs. Findings from this study reveal that while external influences dominate poverty alleviation policies and strategies, NGOs and the government of Ghana exercise varying degrees of agency in navigating these issues. In particular, NGOs have been able to adapt their programs to the changing needs of donor markets, and are also actively engaged in re-orienting poverty back to the political domain through advocacy campaigns. Overall, rural communities in Ghana depend on charitable NGOs for the provision of essential social services, while the Ghanaian government depends on international donor assistance for its development projects.

Rethinking Fiscal Decentralization Policies in Developing Economies: A Case Study of Ghana

This thesis invites geographers to pay more attention to public policy research by addressing the need to rethink fiscal decentralization policies in Ghana. By applying “Simandan’s wise stance in human geography” and “Grix’s building blocks of social research design”, I developed a conceptual framework that unites two incommensurable ontological and epistemological research positions in geography—the positive and normative positions. I used the framework to investigate two key research questions. First, does fiscal decentralization actually work in Ghana? Through quantitative analysis of empirical revenue and expenditure data (1994-2011) of local governments in Ghana, this study reveals significant issues of inefficiency, inequity, and unaccountability. Local governments generate less revenue, and therefore depend largely on central government transfers for developing their jurisdictions. Worse yet, these transfers are highly unpredictable in terms of amount and timing. Even though a multivariate regression analysis revealed that these transfers are apolitical, the actual disbursement formula tends to focus on equality instead of equity. Additionally, the unclear expenditure assignments in each locality make accountability difficult. In view of these problems, I addressed the question: why is fiscal decentralization held out as a good thing in Ghana? By drawing lessons from Foucault’s and Escobar’s critical discourse analysis, I traced a genealogy of Ghana’s fiscal decentralization. I found that the policy is held out as a good thing in Ghana because of the triangular operation of multiplicities of power, knowledge, and truth regimes at the local, national and international scale. I concluded that although nation-states remains a necessary causal link in fiscal decentralization policy process in Ghana, direct and indirect international involvement have profound effect on these policies. Therefore, rethinking fiscal decentralization involves acknowledging the complex intermingling effects that global, national, and local territories produce.

Creating and Enabling a Sustainable Livelihood for Persons with Intellectual Disabilities: A Comparative Case Study of Ghana and Canada.

Abstract Despite the plethora of published studies on rights, including employment rights, for persons with intellectual disabilities (Hatton, 2002; Tarulli, et al., 2004; Ward & Stewart, 2008), relatively few have discussed their applicability to individuals with intellectual disabilities to facilitate their full involvement in socio-economic development. This study explored the mechanisms facilitating and inhibiting the full participation of persons with intellectual disabilities in the area of employment through a comparative case analysis of policies and practices in Ontario, Canada (a developed country) and in Ghana (a developing country) both of which are signatories to the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (UNCRPD). The study employed targeted recruitment based on the nature of the research which is a combination of policy and practice investigation.

Mesures de risque d'inflation: estimations et étude de Monte Carlo.

Rapport de recherche

Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences

This paper develops and estimates a game-theoretical model of inflation targeting where the central banker's preferences are asymmetric around the targeted rate. In particular, positive deviations from the target can be weighted more, or less, severely than negative ones in the central banker's loss function. It is shown that some of the previous results derived under the assumption of symmetry are not robust to the generalization of preferences. Estimates of the central banker's preference parameters for Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom are statistically different from the ones implied by the commonly used quadratic loss function. Econometric results are robust to different forecasting models for the rate of unemployment but not to the use of measures of inflation broader than the one targeted.

Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence

This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman’s model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman’s model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate.

Lien Entre Capital Fictif, Markup Flexible et Inflation

Dans Cet Article J'ai Cherche a Demontrer les Liens Qui Existent Entre la Theorie Quantitative de la Monnaie, la Theorie du \"Markup\" et L'inflation. Bien Qu'il Ne Soit Pas Necessaire D'admettre L'equilibre et les Courbes Is-Lm, Ma Theorie du Capital Fictif Est Compatible Avec le Q de Tobin. le Principal Avantage de la Theorie du \"Markup\" Flexible Est de Montrer Comment L'inflation Est Fonction Non Seulement du Prix et de la Productivite du Travail, Mais Aussi du Prix de la Productivite du Capital, de Son Taux D'amortissement et de Son Taux de Financement. les Nouveaux Resultats Econometriques Obtenus a Partir des Donnees Annuelles Canadiennes Illustrent Hors de Tout Doute le Bien Fonde de la Relation Entre Capital Fictif et Inflation.

Heterodox Inflation Stabilization in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel. A Historical Review and Some Stylized Facts

This article presents a review of the stabilization attempts in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel during the 1980’s. Earlier research is summarized and complemented with additional sources of contemporaneous information and a detailed analysis of institutional features. The examination of these episodes underscores the strong economic and empirical relationship between the governments’ fiscal policy and the rate of inflation.

Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank. Two competing models that econometrically describe agents’ inferences about inflation targets are developed and shown to generate distinct predictions on the behavior of interest rates. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that agents perceive the band to be substantially narrower than officially announced and asymmetric around the stated mid-point. The latter result (i) suggests that the monetary authority attaches different weights to positive and negative deviations from the central target, and (ii) challenges on empirical grounds the assumption, frequently made in the literature, that the policy maker’s loss function is symmetric (usually a quadratic function) around a desired inflation value.