A Multiagent system model which suggests solutions to fuzzy incidents in the field of telecommunications

This article presents the model of a multi-agent system (SMAF), which objectives are the input of fuzzy incidents as the human experts express them with different severities degrees and the further search and suggestion of solutions. The solutions will be later confirm or not by the users. This model was designed, implemented and tested in the telecommunications field, with heterogeneous agents in a cooperative model. In the design, different abstract levels where considered, according to the agents? objectives, their ways to carry it out and the environment in which they act. Each agent is modeled with different spectrum of the knowledge base

Solving Incidents in Telecommunications Using a Multiagent System

This article presents the model and implementation of a multiagent fuzzy system (MAFS), to automate the search of solutions of incidents in telecommunications, expressed by the users in an imprecise way and, later, registered in a a knowledge base keeping their original vaguenesses and the relationships between the incidents considered as ancestors and descendants. The process of the fuzzy incidents, no matter their causes, is based on the application of a formula which transforms the intervals of the fuzzy incidents to a computational language and in the interaction between the different kinds of software agents and the humans. To search and suggest solutions of the incident originally stated, a search algorithm is used and illustrated with an example. The preliminary results obtained show the users' satisfaction, in a great percentage of the presented cases. The system is adaptive and allows to record new solutions for future users.

Learning from incidents during bridge erection

Bridge building is a highly uncertain endeavour that entails considerable risk, as attested to by the succession of construction-related incidents and accidents recently reported in Spain and elsewhere. While efforts are being made to improve on-site safety, many issues are still outstanding, such as the establishment of reliability requirements for the ancillary systems used. The problems that must be dealt with in everyday practice, however, are more elementary and often attributable to human error. The overall organisation of the use of bridge construction equipment is in need of improvement. Close cooperation between the bridge engineers responsible for construction planning and ancillary element suppliers is imperative, for flawed interaction between building equipment and the bridge under construction may generate structural vulnerability. External quality assurance should likewise be mandatory

A model of air transport passenger incidents and rights

This paper describes a representation of the legal framework in the air transport passenger's rights domain and the foremost incidents that trigger the top of consumer complaints ranking in the EU. It comprises the development of a small network of three ontologies, formalisation of scenarios, specification of properties and identification of relations. The approach is illustrated by means of a case study based in the context of a real life cancelled flight incident. This is part of an intended support-system that aims to provide both consumers and companies with relevant legal information to enhance the decision-making process.

Real-time incidents detection in the highways of the future

Due to ever increasing transportation of people and goods, automatic traffic surveillance is becoming a key issue for both providing safety to road users and improving traffic control in an efficient way. In this paper, we propose a new system that, exploiting the capabilities that both computer vision and machine learning offer, is able to detect and track different types of real incidents on a highway. Specifically, it is able to accurately detect not only stopped vehicles, but also drivers and passengers leaving the stopped vehicle, and other pedestrians present in the roadway. Additionally, a theoretical approach for detecting vehicles which may leave the road in an unexpected way is also presented. The system works in real-time and it has been optimized for working outdoor, being thus appropriate for its deployment in a real-world environment like a highway. First experimental results on a dataset created with videos provided by two Spanish highway operators demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system and its robustness against noise and low-quality videos.

Application of Bayesian approach in geotechnical engineering

En esta Tesis Doctoral se emplean y desarrollan Métodos Bayesianos para su aplicación en análisis geotécnicos habituales, con un énfasis particular en (i) la valoración y selección de modelos geotécnicos basados en correlaciones empíricas; en (ii) el desarrollo de predicciones acerca de los resultados esperados en modelos geotécnicos complejos. Se llevan a cabo diferentes aplicaciones a problemas geotécnicos, como es el caso de: (1) En el caso de rocas intactas, se presenta un método Bayesiano para la evaluación de modelos que permiten estimar el módulo de Young a partir de la resistencia a compresión simple (UCS). La metodología desarrollada suministra estimaciones de las incertidumbres de los parámetros y predicciones y es capaz de diferenciar entre las diferentes fuentes de error. Se desarrollan modelos "específicos de roca" para los tipos de roca más comunes y se muestra cómo se pueden "actualizar" esos modelos "iniciales" para incorporar, cuando se encuentra disponible, la nueva información específica del proyecto, reduciendo las incertidumbres del modelo y mejorando sus capacidades predictivas. (2) Para macizos rocosos, se presenta una metodología, fundamentada en un criterio de selección de modelos, que permite determinar el modelo más apropiado, entre un conjunto de candidatos, para estimar el módulo de deformación de un macizo rocoso a partir de un conjunto de datos observados. Una vez que se ha seleccionado el modelo más apropiado, se emplea un método Bayesiano para obtener distribuciones predictivas de los módulos de deformación de macizos rocosos y para actualizarlos con la nueva información específica del proyecto. Este método Bayesiano de actualización puede reducir significativamente la incertidumbre asociada a la predicción, y por lo tanto, afectar las estimaciones que se hagan de la probabilidad de fallo, lo cual es de un interés significativo para los diseños de mecánica de rocas basados en fiabilidad. (3) En las primeras etapas de los diseños de mecánica de rocas, la información acerca de los parámetros geomecánicos y geométricos, las tensiones in-situ o los parámetros de sostenimiento, es, a menudo, escasa o incompleta. Esto plantea dificultades para aplicar las correlaciones empíricas tradicionales que no pueden trabajar con información incompleta para realizar predicciones. Por lo tanto, se propone la utilización de una Red Bayesiana para trabajar con información incompleta y, en particular, se desarrolla un clasificador Naïve Bayes para predecir la probabilidad de ocurrencia de grandes deformaciones (squeezing) en un túnel a partir de cinco parámetros de entrada habitualmente disponibles, al menos parcialmente, en la etapa de diseño. This dissertation employs and develops Bayesian methods to be used in typical geotechnical analyses, with a particular emphasis on (i) the assessment and selection of geotechnical models based on empirical correlations; on (ii) the development of probabilistic predictions of outcomes expected for complex geotechnical models. Examples of application to geotechnical problems are developed, as follows: (1) For intact rocks, we present a Bayesian framework for model assessment to estimate the Young’s moduli based on their UCS. Our approach provides uncertainty estimates of parameters and predictions, and can differentiate among the sources of error. We develop ‘rock-specific’ models for common rock types, and illustrate that such ‘initial’ models can be ‘updated’ to incorporate new project-specific information as it becomes available, reducing model uncertainties and improving their predictive capabilities. (2) For rock masses, we present an approach, based on model selection criteria to select the most appropriate model, among a set of candidate models, to estimate the deformation modulus of a rock mass, given a set of observed data. Once the most appropriate model is selected, a Bayesian framework is employed to develop predictive distributions of the deformation moduli of rock masses, and to update them with new project-specific data. Such Bayesian updating approach can significantly reduce the associated predictive uncertainty, and therefore, affect our computed estimates of probability of failure, which is of significant interest to reliability-based rock engineering design. (3) In the preliminary design stage of rock engineering, the information about geomechanical and geometrical parameters, in situ stress or support parameters is often scarce or incomplete. This poses difficulties in applying traditional empirical correlations that cannot deal with incomplete data to make predictions. Therefore, we propose the use of Bayesian Networks to deal with incomplete data and, in particular, a Naïve Bayes classifier is developed to predict the probability of occurrence of tunnel squeezing based on five input parameters that are commonly available, at least partially, at design stages.

A linearization-based system reliability method with application to geotechnical analysis

Los análisis de fiabilidad representan una herramienta adecuada para contemplar las incertidumbres inherentes que existen en los parámetros geotécnicos. En esta Tesis Doctoral se desarrolla una metodología basada en una linealización sencilla, que emplea aproximaciones de primer o segundo orden, para evaluar eficientemente la fiabilidad del sistema en los problemas geotécnicos. En primer lugar, se emplean diferentes métodos para analizar la fiabilidad de dos aspectos propios del diseño de los túneles: la estabilidad del frente y el comportamiento del sostenimiento. Se aplican varias metodologías de fiabilidad — el Método de Fiabilidad de Primer Orden (FORM), el Método de Fiabilidad de Segundo Orden (SORM) y el Muestreo por Importancia (IS). Los resultados muestran que los tipos de distribución y las estructuras de correlación consideradas para todas las variables aleatorias tienen una influencia significativa en los resultados de fiabilidad, lo cual remarca la importancia de una adecuada caracterización de las incertidumbres geotécnicas en las aplicaciones prácticas. Los resultados también muestran que tanto el FORM como el SORM pueden emplearse para estimar la fiabilidad del sostenimiento de un túnel y que el SORM puede mejorar el FORM con un esfuerzo computacional adicional aceptable. Posteriormente, se desarrolla una metodología de linealización para evaluar la fiabilidad del sistema en los problemas geotécnicos. Esta metodología solamente necesita la información proporcionada por el FORM: el vector de índices de fiabilidad de las funciones de estado límite (LSFs) que componen el sistema y su matriz de correlación. Se analizan dos problemas geotécnicos comunes —la estabilidad de un talud en un suelo estratificado y un túnel circular excavado en roca— para demostrar la sencillez, precisión y eficiencia del procedimiento propuesto. Asimismo, se reflejan las ventajas de la metodología de linealización con respecto a las herramientas computacionales alternativas. Igualmente se muestra que, en el caso de que resulte necesario, se puede emplear el SORM —que aproxima la verdadera LSF mejor que el FORM— para calcular estimaciones más precisas de la fiabilidad del sistema. Finalmente, se presenta una nueva metodología que emplea Algoritmos Genéticos para identificar, de manera precisa, las superficies de deslizamiento representativas (RSSs) de taludes en suelos estratificados, las cuales se emplean posteriormente para estimar la fiabilidad del sistema, empleando la metodología de linealización propuesta. Se adoptan tres taludes en suelos estratificados característicos para demostrar la eficiencia, precisión y robustez del procedimiento propuesto y se discuten las ventajas del mismo con respecto a otros métodos alternativos. Los resultados muestran que la metodología propuesta da estimaciones de fiabilidad que mejoran los resultados previamente publicados, enfatizando la importancia de hallar buenas RSSs —y, especialmente, adecuadas (desde un punto de vista probabilístico) superficies de deslizamiento críticas que podrían ser no-circulares— para obtener estimaciones acertadas de la fiabilidad de taludes en suelos. Reliability analyses provide an adequate tool to consider the inherent uncertainties that exist in geotechnical parameters. This dissertation develops a simple linearization-based approach, that uses first or second order approximations, to efficiently evaluate the system reliability of geotechnical problems. First, reliability methods are employed to analyze the reliability of two tunnel design aspects: face stability and performance of support systems. Several reliability approaches —the first order reliability method (FORM), the second order reliability method (SORM), the response surface method (RSM) and importance sampling (IS)— are employed, with results showing that the assumed distribution types and correlation structures for all random variables have a significant effect on the reliability results. This emphasizes the importance of an adequate characterization of geotechnical uncertainties for practical applications. Results also show that both FORM and SORM can be used to estimate the reliability of tunnel-support systems; and that SORM can outperform FORM with an acceptable additional computational effort. A linearization approach is then developed to evaluate the system reliability of series geotechnical problems. The approach only needs information provided by FORM: the vector of reliability indices of the limit state functions (LSFs) composing the system, and their correlation matrix. Two common geotechnical problems —the stability of a slope in layered soil and a circular tunnel in rock— are employed to demonstrate the simplicity, accuracy and efficiency of the suggested procedure. Advantages of the linearization approach with respect to alternative computational tools are discussed. It is also found that, if necessary, SORM —that approximates the true LSF better than FORM— can be employed to compute better estimations of the system’s reliability. Finally, a new approach using Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is presented to identify the fully specified representative slip surfaces (RSSs) of layered soil slopes, and such RSSs are then employed to estimate the system reliability of slopes, using our proposed linearization approach. Three typical benchmark-slopes with layered soils are adopted to demonstrate the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of the suggested procedure, and advantages of the proposed method with respect to alternative methods are discussed. Results show that the proposed approach provides reliability estimates that improve previously published results, emphasizing the importance of finding good RSSs —and, especially, good (probabilistic) critical slip surfaces that might be non-circular— to obtain good estimations of the reliability of soil slope systems.

Contribución al conocimiento de los primeros geotécnicos del siglo XX

Leyendo distintos artículos en la Revista de Obras Públicas (Jiménez Salas, 1945) uno recuerda a las grandes figuras como Coulomb (1773), Poncelet (1840), Rankine (1856), Culmann (1866), Mohr (1871), Boussinesq (1876) y otros muchos, que construyeron la base de un conocimiento que poco a poco irían facilitando la complicada tarea que suponía la construcción. Pero sus avances eran aproximaciones que presentaban notables diferencias frente al comportamiento de la naturaleza. Esas discrepancias con la naturaleza llegó un momento que se hicieron demasiado patentes. Importantes asientos en la construcción de los modernos edificios, rotura de presas de materiales sueltos y grandes corrimientos de tierras, por ejemplo durante la construcción del canal de Panamá, llevaron a la Sociedad Americana de Ingenieros Civiles (ASCE) a crear un comité que analizase las prácticas de la construcción de la época. Hechos similares se producían en Europa, por ejemplo en desmontes para ferrocarriles, que en el caso de Suecia supusieron unas cuantiosas perdidas materiales y humanas. El ingeniero austriaco-americano Karl Terzaghi (1883) había podido comprobar, en su práctica profesional, la carencia de conocimientos para afrontar muchos de los retos que la naturaleza ofrecía. Inicialmente buscó la respuesta en la geología pero encontró que ésta carecía de la definición necesaria para la práctica de la ingeniería, por lo que se lanzó a una denodada tarea investigadora basada en el método experimental. Comenzó en 1917 con escasos medios, pero pronto llegó a desarrollar algunos ensayos que le permitieron establecer los primeros conceptos de una nueva ciencia, la Mecánica de Suelos. Ciencia que ve la luz en 1925 con la publicación de su libro Erdbaumechanik auf bodenphysikalischer Grundlage. Rápidamente otras figuras empezaron a hacer sus contribuciones científicas y de divulgación, como es el caso del ingeniero austriaco-americano Arthur Casagrande (1902), cuya iniciativa de organizar el primer Congreso Internacional de Mecánica de Suelos e Ingeniería de Cimentaciones proporcionó el altavoz que necesitaba esa nueva ciencia para su difusión. Al mismo tiempo, más figuras internacionales se fueron uniendo a este período de grandes avances e innovadores puntos de vista. Figuras como Alec Skempton (1914) en el Reino Unido, Ralph Peck (1912) en los Estados Unidos o Laurits Bjerrum (1918) en Noruega sobresalieron entre los grandes de la época. Esta tesis investiga las vidas de estos geotécnicos, artífices de múltiples avances científicos de la nueva ciencia denominada Mecánica de Suelos. Todas estas grandes figuras de la geotecnia fueron presidentes, en distintos periodos, de la Sociedad Internacional de Mecánica de Suelos e Ingeniería de Cimentaciones. Se deja constancia de ello en las biografías que han sido elaboradas a partir de fuentes de variada procedencia y de los datos cruzados encontrados sobre estos extraordinarios geotécnicos. Así, las biografías de Terzaghi, Casagrande, Skempton, Peck y Bjerrum contribuyen no solo a su conocimiento individual sino que constituyen conjuntamente un punto de vista privilegiado para la comprensión de los acontecimientos vividos por la Mecánica de Suelos en el segundo tercio del siglo XX, extendiéndose en algunos casos hasta los albores del siglo XXI. Las aportaciones científicas de estos geotécnicos encuentran también su lugar en la parte técnica de esta tesis, en la que sus contribuciones individuales iniciales que configuran los distintos capítulos conservan sus puntos de vista originales, lo que permite tener una visión de los principios de la Mecánica de Suelos desde su mismo origen. On reading several articles in the journal, Revista de Obras Públicas (Jiménez Salas, 1945), one recalls such leading figures as Coulomb (1773), Poncelet (1840), Rankine (1856), Culmann (1866), Mohr (1871) and Boussinesq (1876) among many others, who created the basis of scientific knowledge that would make the complicated task of construction progressively easier. However, their advances were approximations which suffered considerable discrepancies when faced with the behaviour of the forces of nature. There came a time when such discrepancies became all too evident. Substantial soil settlements when constructing modern buildings, embankment dam failures and grave landslides, during the construction of the Panama Canal for example, led the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) to form a committee in order to analyse construction practices of the time. Similar incidents had taken place in Europe, for example with railway slides, which in the case of Sweden, had resulted in heavy losses in both materials and human lives. During the practice of his career, the Austrian-American engineer Karl Terzaghi (1883) had encountered the many challenges posed by the forces of nature and the lack of knowledge at his disposal with which to overcome them. Terzaghi first sought a solution in geology only to discover that this lacked the necessary accuracy for the practice of engineering. He therefore threw himself into tireless research based on the experimental method. He began in 1917 on limited means but soon managed to develop several tests, which would allow him to establish the basic fundamentals of a new science; Soil Mechanics, a science which first saw the light of day on the publication of Terzaghi’s book, Erdbaumechanik auf bodenphysikalischer Grundlage. Other figures were quick to make their own scientific contributions. Such was the case of Austrian-American engineer, Arthur Casagrande (1902), whose initiative to organize the first International Congress of Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering provided the springboard that this science needed. At the same time, other international figures were becoming involved in this period of great advances and innovative concepts. Figures including the likes of Alec Skempton (1914) in the United Kingdom, Ralph Peck (1912) in the United States, and Laurits Bjerrum (1918) in Norway stood out amongst the greatest of their time. This thesis investigates the lives of these geotechnical engineers to whom we are indebted for a great many scientific advances in this new science known as Soil Mechanics. Moreover, each of these eminent figures held the presidency of the International Society of Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, record of which can be found in their biographies, drawn from diverse sources, and by crosschecking and referencing all the available information on these extraordinary geotechnical engineers. Thus, the biographies of Terzaghi, Casagrande, Skempton, Peck and Bjerrum not only serve to provide knowledge on the individual, but moreover, as a collective, they present us with an exceptional insight into the important developments which took place in Soil Mechanics in the second third of the 20th century, and indeed, in some cases, up to the dawn of the 21st. The scientific contributions of these geotechnical engineers also find their place in the technical part of this thesis in which the initial individual contributions which make up several chapters retain their original approaches allowing us a view of the principles of Soil Mechanics from its very beginnings.

Durability and compressive strength of blast furnace slag-based cement grout for special geotechnical applications

Special foundations, most prominently micropiles and soil anchors, are frequently used in construction today. In Spain, the grout for these special technical applications is generally prepared with portland cement, although the codes and standards in place stipulate only the minimum compressive strength required, with no mention of cement type. Those texts also establish a range of acceptable water:cement ratios. In the present study, durability and compressive strength in cement grout prepared with blast furnace slag cement at different w/c ratios are characterised and compared to the findings for a reference portland cement grout. The results show that slag grout exhibits greater durability than the portland cement material and complies with the compressive strength requirements laid down in the respective codes.

Aggressive incidents inside a Montreal barroom involving patrons, barmaids and bouncers : a micro level examination of routine activity theory

Objectives: This article further examines the phenomenon of aggression inside barrooms by relying on the “bouncer-ethnographer” methodology. The objective is to investigate variations in aggression through time and space according to the role and routine of the target in a Montreal barroom. Thus, it provides an examination of routine activity theory at the micro level: the barroom. Methods: For a period of 258 nights of observation in a Canadian barroom, bouncers completed reports on each intervention and provided specific information regarding what happened, when and where within the venue. In addition, the bouncer-ethnographer compiled field observations and interviews with bar personnel in order to identify aggression hotspots and “rush hours” for three types of actors within barrooms: (a) bouncers, (b) barmaids and (c) patrons. Findings: Three different patterns emerged for shifting hotspots of aggression depending on the target. As the night progresses, aggressive incidents between patrons, towards barmaids and towards bouncers have specific hotspots and rush hours influenced by the specific routine of the target inside the barroom. Implications: The current findings enrich those of previous work by pointing to the relevance of not only examining the environmental characteristics of the barroom, but also the role of the target of aggression. Crime opportunities follow routine activities, even within a specific location on a micro level. Routine activity theory is thus relevant in this context, because as actors in differing roles follow differing routines, as do their patterns of victimization.