The impact of global positioning systems and plotters on fishing power in the northern prawn fishery, Australia

The impact of global positioning systems (GPS) and plotter systems on the relative fishing power of the northern prawn fishery fleet on tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus Haswell, 1879, and P. semisulcatus de Haan, 1850) was investigated from commercial catch data. A generalized linear model was used to account for differences in fishing power between boats and changes in prawn abundance. It was found that boats that used a GPS alone had 4% greater fishing power than boats without a CPS. The addition of a plotter raised the power by 7% over boats without the equipment. For each year between the first to third that a fisher has been working with plotters, there is an additional 2 or 3% increase. It appears that when all boats have a GPS and plotter for at least 3 years, the fishing power of the fleet will increase by 12%. Management controls have reduced the efficiency of each boat and lowered the number of days available to fish, but this may not have been sufficient to counteract the increases. Further limits will be needed to maintain the desired levels of mortality.

Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

Assessment of driver vision functions in relation to their crash involvement in India

Among the human factors that influence safe driving, visual skills of the driver can be considered fundamental. This study mainly focuses on investigating the effect of visual functions of drivers in India on their road crash involvement. Experiments were conducted to assess vision functions of Indian licensed drivers belonging to various organizations, age groups and driving experience. The test results were further related to the crash involvement histories of drivers through statistical tools. A generalized linear model was developed to ascertain the influence of these traits on propensity of crash involvement. Among the sampled drivers, colour vision, vertical field of vision, depth perception, contrast sensitivity, acuity and phoria were found to influence their crash involvement rates. In India, there are no efficient standards and testing methods to assess the visual capabilities of drivers during their licensing process and this study highlights the need for the same.

Estimation of the relative annual abundance of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean during 1970-1985

ENGLISH: Estimates of relative annual abundance of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean during 1970-1985 are made using catch rates, measured as tons caught by purse seiners per hour of searching. Catch rates are standardized a weighted generalized linear model. The important standardizing factors are vessel speed, season-area, and whether the yellowfin were caught in association with dolphins, skipjack tuna, or floating objects. Observations are weighted to give equal areas equal weight and to give each unit of fishing effort equal weight within an area. The results indicate that catch per days fishing underestimates abundance during the late 1970's when the fishery shifted some of its effort from dolphin sets to floating object sets, and overestimates abundance when the fishery shifted back to dolphin sets in 1984 and 1985. SPANISH: Se estima la abundancia anual relativa del atún aleta amarilla en el Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO) durante 1970-1985 por medio de tasas de captura, calculadas como toneladas cortas capturadas por barcos cerqueros por hora de búsqueda. Se usa un modelo lineal ponderado generalizado para estandardizar las tasas de captura. Los factores importantes de estandardización son la velocidad del barco, temporada-área, y si se capturaron los aletas amarillas en asociación con delfines, barriletes, o objetos flotantes. Se ponderaron las observaciones para otorgar igual importancia a áreas iguales y a cada unidad de esfuerzo pesquero dentro de un área. Los resultados señalan que la captura por día de pesca estima por bajo la abundancia durante los últimos años de la década de los 70, en cual época la pesquería trasladó parte de su esfuerzo de lances sobre delfines a lances sobre objetos flotantes, y la sobreestima al volver la pesquería a lances sobre delfines en 1984 y 1985. (PDF contains 45 pages.)

Catches per unit of effort of bigeye tuna: a new analysis with regression trees and simulated annealing

ENGLISH: We analyzed catches per unit of effort (CPUE) from the Japanese longline fishery for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) with regression tree methods. Regression trees have not previously been used to estimate time series of abundance indices fronl CPUE data. The "optimally sized" tree had 139 parameters; year, month, latitude, and longitude interacted to affect bigeye CPUE. The trend in tree-based abundance indices for the EPO was similar to trends estimated from a generalized linear model and fronl an empirical model that combines oceanographic data with information on the distribution of fish relative to environmental conditions. The regression tree was more parsimonious and would be easier to implement than the other two nl0dels, but the tree provided no information about the nlechanisms that caused bigeye CPUEs to vary in time and space. Bigeye CPUEs increased sharply during the mid-1980's and were more variable at the northern and southern edges of the fishing grounds. Both of these results can be explained by changes in actual abundance and changes in catchability. Results from a regression tree that was fitted to a subset of the data indicated that, in the EPO, bigeye are about equally catchable with regular and deep longlines. This is not consistent with observations that bigeye are more abundant at depth and indicates that classification by gear type (regular or deep longline) may not provide a good measure of capture depth. Asimulated annealing algorithm was used to summarize the tree-based results by partitioning the fishing grounds into regions where trends in bigeye CPUE were similar. Simulated annealing can be useful for designing spatial strata in future sampling programs. SPANISH: Analizamos la captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE) de la pesquería palangrera japonesa de atún patudo (Thunnus obesus) en el Océano Pacifico oriental (OPO) y central con métodos de árbol de regresión. Hasta ahora no se han usado árboles de regresión para estimar series de tiempo de índices de abundancia a partir de datos de CPUE. EI árbol de "tamaño optimo" tuvo 139 parámetros; ano, mes, latitud, y longitud interactuaron para afectar la CPUE de patudo. La tendencia en los índices de abundancia basados en árboles para el OPO fue similar a las tendencias estimadas con un modelo lineal generalizado y con un modelo empírico que combina datos oceanográficos con información sobre la distribución de los peces en relación con las condiciones ambientales. EI árbol de regresión fue mas parsimonioso y seria mas fácil de utilizar que los dos otros modelos, pero no proporciono información sobre los mecanismos que causaron que las CPUE de patudo valiaran en el tiempo y en el espacio. Las CPUE de patudo aumentaron notablemente a mediados de los anos 80 y fueron mas variables en los extremos norte y sur de la zona de pesca. Estos dos resultados pueden ser explicados por cambios en la abundancia real y cambios en la capturabilidad. Los resultados de un arbal de regresión ajustado a un subconjunto de los datos indican que, en el OPO, el patudo es igualmente capturable con palangres regulares y profundos. Esto no es consistente con observaciones de que el patudo abunda mas a profundidad e indica que clasificación por tipo de arte (palangre regular 0 profundo) podría no ser una buena medida de la profundidad de captura. Se uso un algoritmo de templado simulado para resumir los resultados basados en el árbol clasificando las zonas de pesca en zonas con tendencias similares en la CPUE de patudo. El templado simulado podría ser útil para diseñar estratos espaciales en programas futuros de muestreo. (PDF contains 45 pages.)

Eventos de vida produtores de estresse e acidentes de trabalho: Estudo Pró-Saúde, Rio de Janeiro - Brasil

A proposta desta tese consiste em um recorte de uma abordagem mais ampla da determinação dos acidentes de trabalho, e tem como objetivo geral investigar o perfil de acidentes de trabalho que acometem funcionários técnico-administrativos do quadro efetivo de uma universidade do Rio de Janeiro. Para o alcance do objetivo, esta tese está estruturada em dois artigos, e como tal pretende explorar o perfil sócio-demográfico e ocupacional de funcionários públicos na ocorrência de acidentes de trabalho (Artigo 1); e investigar a associação entre os eventos de vida produtores de estresse (EVPE) e a ocorrência de acidentes de trabalho (Artigo 2). Dados seccionais da fase 2 de um estudo de natureza prospectiva (Estudo Pró-Saúde) foram coletados entre 3572 funcionários. A história de acidentes de trabalho foi captada por meio de perguntas dicotômicas (sim vs. não) para cada um dos seguintes tipos de acidentes: perfuração com agulha; perfuração com outro objeto; corte; queimadura; choque elétrico; contusão ou distensão muscular; fratura, entorse ou luxação; e envenenamento ou intoxicação. O período de referência para aferição tanto dos EVPE quanto da ocorrência de acidente de trabalho correspondeu aos 12 meses anteriores a aplicação de questionário autopreenchível. No artigo 1 utilizou-se a técnica de análise de correspondência múltipla para delimitar agrupamentos de funcionários quanto ao perfil sócio-demográfico e ocupacional associado à ocorrência de acidente de trabalho, de acordo com as seguintes Característica : sexo, idade, escolaridade, renda per capita, ocupação, setor e local de trabalho. No artigo 2, a associação entre EVPE e acidentes de trabalho foi avaliada através de análise multivariada por meio de modelo lineares generalizados (logpoisson), sendo os resultados expressos através de razões de prevalência (RP) ajustadas e seus respectivos intervalos de 95% de confiança (IC95%). A prevalência total de acidentes no período de 12 meses foi de 25,6%. Dos tipos de acidentes referidos, o mais frequente foi a contusão ou fratura, com cerca de (10,2%) de relatos. Em seguida, aparecem as perfurações com agulha (6,5%). Os resultados da análise de correspondência revelam três grupos, destacando-se aquele formado pelos que sofreram perfuração com agulha com um perfil que abrange os auxiliares de enfermagem, trabalham no Hospital Universitário e setores adjacentes, especificamente em setores de terapia intensiva, emergência, cirurgia geral, clinica geral e ambulatório. Em relação à associação com EVPE, ter sido testemunha de agressão foi o evento mais fortemente associado com acidentes de trabalho (RP= 1,98, IC95%= 1,67; 2,34). Este estudo trouxe informações acerca da importância das características sócio-demográficas e de aspectos psicossociais na ocorrência dos acidentes de trabalho que podem ser úteis na elaboração de medidas para a prevenção desse importante problema de saúde pública.

Catch rates and demographics of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) captured from the Charleston, South Carolina, shipping channel during the period of mandatory use of turtle excluder devices (TEDs)

Trawling was conducted in the Charleston, South Carolina, shipping channel between May and August during 2004–07 to evaluate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) catch rates and demographic distributions. Two hundred and twenty individual loggerheads were captured in 432 trawling events during eight sampling periods lasting 2–10 days each. Catch was analyzed by using a generalized linear model. Data were fitted to a negative binomial distribution with the log of standardized sampling effort (i.e., an hour of sampling with a net head rope length standardized to 30.5 m) for each event treated as an offset term. Among 21 variables, factors, and interactions, five terms were significant in the final model, which accounted for 45% of model deviance. Highly significant differences in catch were noted among sampling periods and sampling locations within the channel, with greatest catch furthest seaward consistent with historical observations. Loggerhead sea turtle catch rates in 2004–07 were greater than in 1991–92 when mandatory use of turtle excluder devices was beginning to be phased in. Concurrent with increased catch rates, loggerheads captured in 2004–07 were larger than in 1991–92. Eighty-five percent of loggerheads captured were ≤75.0 cm straight-line carapace length (nuchal notch to tip of carapace) and there was a 3.9:1 female-to-male bias, consistent with limited data for this location two decades earlier. Only juvenile loggerheads ≤75.0 cm possessed haplotypes other than CC-A01 or CC-A02 that dominate in the region. Six rare and one un-described haplotype were predominantly found in June 2004.

Assessment of habitat quality for juvenile California halibut (Paralichthys californicus) in a seasonally arid estuary

We evaluated habitat quality for juvenile California halibut (Paralichthys californicus) in a Pacific Coast estuary lacking in strong salinity gradients by examining density, recent otolith growth rates, and gut fullness levels of wild-caught and caged juveniles for one year. Juveniles <200 mm standard length were caught consistently in the inner, central, and outer sections of the estuary. The density of juveniles was two times higher in the inner estuary during most of the year, consistent with active habitat selection by part of the population. A generalized linear model indicated temperature, sampling time, and the interaction between salinity and temperature were significantly related to density. However, the model explained only 21% of the variance. Gut fullness levels of wild-caught juveniles were highest during the summer, but recent otolith growth rates were not related to temperature. The proportion of individuals feeding successfully indicated that seasonal differences in food availability are more important than spatial variation in prey abundance in driving feeding success. Feeding success of caged fishes was limited, precluding the use of growth rates as indicators of local habitat quality. However, marginal increment widths were reliable indicators of somatic growth at low growth rates over two-week periods. The relatively high growth rates and abundance of small wild-caught juveniles found throughout the estuary indicates that the entire estuary system has the potential for serving as nursery habitat.

Ungewohnliche Gewichsabnahme von Dorsch im 2. Jahresquartal in Bornholm Becken (ICES-Gebeit 25) und der Arkonasee (ICES-Gebiet 24)

Cod captured by commercial fi shery in the Bornholm Basin in quarter 2 of 2001 were not suitable for the mechanical processing due to low condition and weight. The absolute mean weight of cod captured by the commercial fishery in the Arkona Sea and Bornholm Basin in the same quarter during the last fi ve years was studied to describe its development. The results of a GLM (Generalized Linear Model) analysis showed similar development of body weight in the Bornholm Basin and in the Arkona Sea between 2007 and 2011. The mean weight of cod in the Bornholm Basin increased from 2007 to 2008 in both areas followed by a relative stable weight until 2009 and a decrease until 2011. In the Arkona Sea the mean weight of cod 2009 has decreased in comparison to 2008, then have increased 2010 slightly and last have decreased in 2011. The analyses showed that the weight of cod is signifi cantly infl uenced by length, age and maturity of individuals.

Temporal trends (2000–2011) and influences on fishery-independent catch rates for loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) at an important coastal foraging region in the southeastern United States

Seasonal trawling was conducted randomly in coastal (depths of 4.6–17 m) waters from St. Augustine, Florida, (29.9°N) to Winyah Bay, South Carolina (33.1°N), during 2000–03, 2008–09, and 2011 to assess annual trends in the relative abundance of sea turtles. A total of 1262 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were captured in 23% (951) of 4207 sampling events. Capture rates (overall and among prevalent 5-cm size classes) were analyzed through the use of a generalized linear model with log link function for the 4097 events that had complete observations for all 25 model parameters. Final models explained 6.6% (70.1–75.0 cm minimum straight-line carapace length [SCLmin]) to 14.9% (75.1–80.0 cm SCLmin) of deviance in the data set. Sampling year, geographic subregion, and distance from shore were retained as significant terms in all final models, and these terms collectively accounted for 6.2% of overall model deviance (range: 4.5–11.7% of variance among 5-cm size classes). We retained 18 parameters only in a subset of final models: 4 as exclusively significant terms, 5 as a mixture of significant or nonsignificant terms, and 9 as exclusively nonsignificant terms. Four parameters also were dropped completely from all final models. The generalized linear model proved appropriate for monitoring trends for this data set that was laden with zero values for catches and was compiled for a globally protected species. Because we could not account for much model deviance, metrics other than those examined in our study may better explain catch variability and, once elucidated, their inclusion in the generalized linear model should improve model fits.

Distribution of ommastrephid paralarvae in the eastern tropical Pacific

Jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) and purpleback squid (Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis) (Teuthida: Ommastrephidae) are thought to spawn in the eastern tropical Pacific. We used 10 years of plankton tow and oceanographic data collected in this region to examine the reproductive habits of these 2 ecologically important squid. Paralarvae of jumbo squid and purpleback squid were found in 781 of 1438 plankton samples from surface and oblique tows conducted by the Southwest Fisheries Science Center (NOAA) in the eastern tropical Pacific over the 8-year period of 1998–2006. Paralarvae were far more abundant in surface tows (maximum: 1588 individuals) than in oblique tows (maximum: 64 individuals). A generalized linear model analysis revealed sea-surface temperature as the strongest environmental predictor of paralarval presence in both surface and oblique tows; the likelihood of paralarval presence increases with increasing temperature. We used molecular techniques to identify paralarvae from 37 oblique tows to species level and found that the purpleback squid was more abundant than the jumbo squid (81 versus 16 individuals).

Magnitude and distribution of sea turtle bycatch in the sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) dredge fishery in two areas of the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, 2001–2002

In May 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) opened two areas in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean that had been previously closed to the U.S. sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) dredge fishery. Upon reopening these areas, termed the “Hudson Canyon Controlled Access Area” and the “Virginia Beach Controlled Access Area,” NMFS observers found that marine turtles were being caught incidentally in scallop dredges. This study uses the generalized linear model and the generalized additive model fitting techniques to identify environmental factors and gear characteristics that influence bycatch rates, and to predict total bycatch in these two areas during May-December 2001 and 2002 by incorporating environmental factors into the models. Significant factors affecting sea turtle bycatch were season, time-of-day, sea surface temperature, and depth zone. In estimating total bycatch, rates were stratified according to a combination of all these factors except time-of-day which was not available in fishing logbooks. Highest bycatch rates occurred during the summer season, in temperatures greater than 19°C, and in water depths from 49 to 57 m. Total estimated bycatch of sea turtles during May–December in 2001 and 2002 in both areas combined was 169 animals (CV=55.3), of which 164 (97%) animals were caught in the Hudson Canyon area. From these findings, it may be possible to predict hot spots for sea turtle bycatch in future years in the controlled access areas.

Dynamics of visual receptive fields in the macaque frontal eye field.

Neuronal receptive fields (RFs) provide the foundation for understanding systems-level sensory processing. In early visual areas, investigators have mapped RFs in detail using stochastic stimuli and sophisticated analytical approaches. Much less is known about RFs in prefrontal cortex. Visual stimuli used for mapping RFs in prefrontal cortex tend to cover a small range of spatial and temporal parameters, making it difficult to understand their role in visual processing. To address these shortcomings, we implemented a generalized linear model to measure the RFs of neurons in the macaque frontal eye field (FEF) in response to sparse, full-field stimuli. Our high-resolution, probabilistic approach tracked the evolution of RFs during passive fixation, and we validated our results against conventional measures. We found that FEF neurons exhibited a surprising level of sensitivity to stimuli presented as briefly as 10 ms or to multiple dots presented simultaneously, suggesting that FEF visual responses are more precise than previously appreciated. FEF RF spatial structures were largely maintained over time and between stimulus conditions. Our results demonstrate that the application of probabilistic RF mapping to FEF and similar association areas is an important tool for clarifying the neuronal mechanisms of cognition.

Heritability and Genome-Wide Association Study to Assess Genetic Differences between Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration Subtypes

PURPOSE: To investigate whether the 2 subtypes of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD), choroidal neovascularization (CNV), and geographic atrophy (GA) segregate separately in families and to identify which genetic variants are associated with these 2 subtypes. DESIGN: Sibling correlation study and genome-wide association study (GWAS). PARTICIPANTS: For the sibling correlation study, 209 sibling pairs with advanced AMD were included. For the GWAS, 2594 participants with advanced AMD subtypes and 4134 controls were included. Replication cohorts included 5383 advanced AMD participants and 15 240 controls. METHODS: Participants had the AMD grade assigned based on fundus photography, examination, or both. To determine heritability of advanced AMD subtypes, a sibling correlation study was performed. For the GWAS, genome-wide genotyping was conducted and 6 036 699 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were imputed. Then, the SNPs were analyzed with a generalized linear model controlling for genotyping platform and genetic ancestry. The most significant associations were evaluated in independent cohorts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Concordance of advanced AMD subtypes in sibling pairs and associations between SNPs with GA and CNV advanced AMD subtypes. RESULTS: The difference between the observed and expected proportion of siblings concordant for the same subtype of advanced AMD was different to a statistically significant degree (P = 4.2×10(-5)), meaning that in siblings of probands with CNV or GA, the same advanced subtype is more likely to develop. In the analysis comparing participants with CNV to those with GA, a statistically significant association was observed at the ARMS2/HTRA1 locus (rs10490924; odds ratio [OR], 1.47; P = 4.3×10(-9)), which was confirmed in the replication samples (OR, 1.38; P = 7.4×10(-14) for combined discovery and replication analysis). CONCLUSIONS: Whether CNV versus GA develops in a patient with AMD is determined in part by genetic variation. In this large GWAS meta-analysis and replication analysis, the ARMS2/HTRA1 locus confers increased risk for both advanced AMD subtypes, but imparts greater risk for CNV than for GA. This locus explains a small proportion of the excess sibling correlation for advanced AMD subtype. Other loci were detected with suggestive associations that differ for advanced AMD subtypes and deserve follow-up in additional studies. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.